Race 8 · Gulfstream Parkpool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 2NICE TRY RILEY (USA)+7.255% · 47%
  2. 6CLASSIC EQUATION (USA)+9.49% · 0%
  3. 7EL OREJON (USA)+9.19% · 0%
  4. 5HARD TALK (USA)+8.89% · 0%
  5. 1COMMENDATORE (USA)-11.18% · 19%
  6. 4RULE SEVENTY SIX (USA)-12.86% · 19%
  7. 3ARABIA WILD (USA)-10.54% · 14%
NICE TRY RILEY (USA) is the pick: model 55% against a 47% pool share · verdict ↓

See more in every US race

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every track TJK carries. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

25 races today · 2 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races, top-3 coverage vs market +0.4 pts, passed (marginal)

Sun 27 Sep 2026 · 3 tracks14 usable of 25 races · model overturns the favourite in 5Written 27.09.2026 10:07 TR · permalink

Today · Sun 27 Sep 2026

25 races across Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park, Laurel Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Gulfstream Park · 10 runners

Usable
MAIDEN SATIŞ KOŞUSU Maiden · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizler · 10 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
7The pickCASE LAW (USA)pool 24% · model 22.9% · AUSTIN B. SOLIS
2Next bestWHEELHOUSE (USA)pool 23% · model 21.6% · SONNY LEON
5At a priceEMINENT POWER (USA)pool 0% · model 8.3% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ
Exacta box721Trifecta box7215Win7

CASE LAW (USA) (7) is the pick: model 23% against a 24% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge -0.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

WHEELHOUSE (USA) (2) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, EMINENT POWER (USA) (5) carries +8.3 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7CASE LAW (USA)AUSTIN B. SOLIS · TAREQ MOUBARAK · draw 7 · pool 24% · market #1-0.9#1
  2. 2WHEELHOUSE (USA)SONNY LEON · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 2 · pool 23% · market #2-1.2#2
  3. 1BRAVENESS (USA)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 1 · pool 23% · market #3-5.5#3
  4. 4JALMOD (USA)ANTHONY THOMAS · CLIFTON A. CHRISTIE · draw 4 · pool 15% · market #4-6.5#4
  5. 5EMINENT POWER (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · AMZADALI JEHALUDI · draw 5 · pool — · market #8+8.3#5
  6. 8ACTIVITY (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · JUAN D. ARIAS · draw 8 · pool — · market #9+7.5#6
  7. 6NUMINOUS (CAN)SAMUEL CAMACHO, JR. · JOSEPH C. CATANESE III · draw 6 · pool — · market #10+5.4#7
  8. 3FLYING ASH (USA)RENZO ROJAS · MARK PASSLEY · draw 3 · pool 6% · market #5-2.5#8
  9. 9SHADIDELBAS (USA)LEONEL REYES · ARMANDO DE LA CERDA · draw 9 · pool 6% · market #6-2.5#9
  10. 10COUSIN VINNY (USA)JONATHAN SANTOS · JAVIER E. MORZAN · draw 10 · pool 4% · market #7-2.3#10

Race 2 · Gulfstream Park · 8 runners

Thin form
1600m Çim · MAIDEN SATIŞ KOŞUSU Maiden · 2 Yaşlı İngilizler · 6 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
1The pickBANDARI (USA)pool 39% · model 35.0% · RENZO ROJAS
4Next bestPOWER ROYAL (USA)pool 17% · model 15.0% · PEDRO MONTERREY, JR.
8At a priceMEGAPLUMB (USA)pool 0% · model 9.6% · PEDRO PENA
Exacta box146Trifecta box1468Win1

BANDARI (USA) (1) is the pick: model 35% against a 39% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -3.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

POWER ROYAL (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, MEGAPLUMB (USA) (8) carries +9.6 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1BANDARI (USA)RENZO ROJAS · HERBERT MILLER · draw 1 · pool 39% · market #1-3.6#1
  2. 4POWER ROYAL (USA)PEDRO MONTERREY, JR. · FRANK SANTILLANA · draw 4 · pool 17% · market #2-1.9#2
  3. 6TULIO (USA)LEONEL REYES · FAUSTO GUTIERREZ · draw 6 · pool 16% · market #3-1.4#3
  4. 8MEGAPLUMB (USA)PEDRO PENA · ARMANDO DE LA CERDA · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+9.6#4
  5. 3BRO (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 3 · pool 9% · market #4-0.8#5
  6. 7EH HAN (USA)YOLBER TORRES · GUILLERMO A. RANGEL · draw 7 · pool 9% · market #5-0.8#6
  7. 2HIDDEN DANGER (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · GUSTAVO DELGADO · draw 2 · pool 8% · market #6-1.0#7
  8. 5SAVE OUR SOUL (USA)RASHEED HUGHES · GERALD JAMES · draw 5 · pool 3% · market #7-0.2#8

Race 3 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
SATIŞ KOŞUSU Şartlı/Dişi · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizler · 7 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
3The pickIMPERIA BLUE (USA)pool 35% · model 40.8% · SAMY CAMACHO
7Next bestOXAR (USA)pool 19% · model 20.1% · PEDRO PENA
Exacta box375Trifecta box375Win3

IMPERIA BLUE (USA) (3) is the pick: model 41% against a 35% pool share, 10 runs of US form on file, edge +5.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

OXAR (USA) (7) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3IMPERIA BLUE (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · ANTONIO SANO · draw 3 · pool 35% · market #1+5.8#1
  2. 7OXAR (USA)PEDRO PENA · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 7 · pool 19% · market #2+1.1#2
  3. 5SLEWTY PRINCESS (USA)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+12.5#3
  4. 4THUNDER PRINCESS (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · FERNANDO ABREU · draw 4 · pool 16% · market #3-4.7#4
  5. 2MARY MARGUERITE (USA)JONATHAN SANTOS · JOSEPH C. CATANESE III · draw 2 · pool 13% · market #4-6.0#5
  6. 1BOMB SQUAD (USA)DAVID BORACO · LUIS DUCO · draw 1 · pool 11% · market #5-5.7#6
  7. 6ANNA JEAN (USA)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · BEN RAMOS · draw 6 · pool 6% · market #6-2.9#7

Race 4 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
1200m Kum · OPSİYONEL SATIŞ KOŞUSU Şartlı/Dişi · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizler · 7 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
2The pickSWEET AGENDA (USA)pool 0% · model 17.2% · LEONEL REYES
6Next bestKIP THE DISTANCE (USA)pool 0% · model 15.8% · CARLOS MARTINEZ
1At a priceGIRVIN STAR (USA)pool 0% · model 14.0% · YOLBER TORRES
Exacta box264Trifecta box2641Win2

SWEET AGENDA (USA) (2) is the pick: model 17% against a 0% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge +17.2 points.

The pool makes FULLY ENTITLED (USA) (7) favourite at 23%; the model rates it 12%, so we overturn the favourite.

KIP THE DISTANCE (USA) (6) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, GIRVIN STAR (USA) (1) carries +14.0 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2SWEET AGENDA (USA)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 2 · pool — · market #2+17.2#1
  2. 6KIP THE DISTANCE (USA)CARLOS MARTINEZ · ANGEL M. RODRIGUEZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #3+15.8#2
  3. 4EVANORA (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · GARRETT W. ARSCOTT · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+14.7#3
  4. 1GIRVIN STAR (USA)YOLBER TORRES · MARCIAL CORNEJO · draw 1 · pool — · market #5+14.0#4
  5. 5IT'S ONLY WORDS (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+13.1#5
  6. 3MO HIJINX (USA)PEDRO PENA · KENNEDY A. POWNALL · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+12.9#6
  7. 7FULLY ENTITLED (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · KATHRYN DAVEY · draw 7 · pool 23% · market #1-87.7#7

Race 5 · Gulfstream Park · 11 runners

Usable
1000m Çim · Şartlı/Dişi · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizler · 8 of 11 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
6The pickCOME ON TEESHA (USA)pool 10% · model 30.4% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ
9Next bestFLOWKO (USA)pool 6% · model 14.0% · MARCOS MENESES
4At a priceMISS BEETHOVEN (FR)pool 0% · model 8.6% · LEONEL REYES
Exacta box697Trifecta box6974Win6

COME ON TEESHA (USA) (6) is the pick: model 30% against a 10% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -11.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

FLOWKO (USA) (9) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, MISS BEETHOVEN (FR) (4) carries +8.6 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6COME ON TEESHA (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · MICHAEL S. MORRISON · draw 6 · pool 10% · market #1-11.3#1
  2. 9FLOWKO (USA)MARCOS MENESES · RORY C. MILLER · draw 9 · pool 6% · market #2-11.0#2
  3. 7DOMINANT DIVA (USA)RASHEED HUGHES · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 7 · pool 4% · market #3-8.0#3
  4. 4MISS BEETHOVEN (FR)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+8.6#4
  5. 5NINIA (USA)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · SAM WILENSKY · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+8.0#5
  6. 11DENVER'S ALLEY (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · MICHAEL LERMAN · draw 11 · pool — · market #8+7.2#6
  7. 1NEODERA (USA)EDGAR PEREZ · MICHAEL LERMAN · draw 1 · pool — · market #9+7.1#7
  8. 10CRYINGINTHERAIN (GB)J.G. TORREALBA · PATRICK L. BIANCONE · draw 10 · pool — · market #10+6.3#8
  9. 2AMASIA (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · JENA M. ANTONUCCI · draw 2 · pool — · market #11+5.5#9
  10. 3LAILA BELLA GIRL (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · J. DAVID BRADDY · draw 3 · pool 2% · market #4-6.1#10
  11. 8CHAMPAGNE BRUNCH (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · ANTONIO SANO · draw 8 · pool 2% · market #5-6.3#11

Race 6 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Usable
SATIŞ KOŞUSU Şartlı · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizler · 8 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
9The pickSKY MASTERSON (USA)pool 9% · model 42.3% · ANTHONY THOMAS
4Next bestPARDO (USA)pool 0% · model 9.8% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ
6At a priceSPONGE TIME (USA)pool 0% · model 8.5% · MARCOS MENESES
Exacta box941Trifecta box9416Win9

SKY MASTERSON (USA) (9) is the pick: model 42% against a 9% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge -10.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

PARDO (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, SPONGE TIME (USA) (6) carries +8.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 9SKY MASTERSON (USA)ANTHONY THOMAS · ROHAN G. CRICHTON · draw 9 · pool 9% · market #1-10.7#1
  2. 4PARDO (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+9.8#2
  3. 1TONYTONE (USA)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 1 · pool — · market #5+9.4#3
  4. 5CHALKY WHITE (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 5 · pool 5% · market #2-20.5#4
  5. 6SPONGE TIME (USA)MARCOS MENESES · MARCUS J. VITALI · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+8.5#5
  6. 2DAVID PEPPERMAN (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · DANIEL C. HURTAK · draw 2 · pool — · market #7+7.2#6
  7. 3SMOOTH AN EASY (USA)CARLOS MARTINEZ · ANGEL M. RODRIGUEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #8+6.3#7
  8. 8ROCKAZO (USA)JOZBIN Z. SANTANA · ANTONIO SANO · draw 8 · pool — · market #9+6.0#8
  9. 7MY FOOLISH NOTION (USA)PEDRO MONTERREY, JR. · HERBERT MILLER · draw 7 · pool 3% · market #3-16.2#9

Race 7 · Gulfstream Park · 8 runners

Usable
1600m Çim · OPSİYONEL SATIŞ KOŞUSU Şartlı · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizler · 7 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
1The pickGOLD FOOT (USA)pool 48% · model 55.2% · MICAH J. HUSBANDS
2Next bestQUIZLER (USA)pool 0% · model 8.6% · PEDRO PENA
8At a priceSHINIGAMI (CAN)pool 0% · model 7.4% · JOSE E. MORELOS
Exacta box123Trifecta box1238Win1

GOLD FOOT (USA) (1) is the pick: model 55% against a 48% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +6.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

QUIZLER (USA) (2) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, SHINIGAMI (CAN) (8) carries +7.4 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1GOLD FOOT (USA)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · SAM WILENSKY · draw 1 · pool 48% · market #1+6.7#1
  2. 2QUIZLER (USA)PEDRO PENA · BEAU J. CHAPMAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #5+8.6#2
  3. 3ALWAYS TRUE (USA)PEDRO MONTERREY, JR. · DANTE ZANELLI · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+8.1#3
  4. 8SHINIGAMI (CAN)JOSE E. MORELOS · STEVE KLESARIS · draw 8 · pool — · market #7+7.4#4
  5. 4BRIGADE COMMANDER (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · BOBBY S. DIBONA · draw 4 · pool 19% · market #2-12.2#5
  6. 7ALINAO FOREVER (USA)JONATHAN SANTOS · DANTE ZANELLI · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+6.9#6
  7. 5WAR WARRIOR (USA)LEONEL REYES · MICHAEL S. MORRISON · draw 5 · pool 16% · market #3-12.6#7
  8. 6NAVY CROSS (USA)EDGAR PEREZ · GEORGINA BAXTER · draw 6 · pool 16% · market #4-12.9#8

Race 8 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
1600m Kum · SATIŞ KOŞUSU Şartlı · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizler · 7 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
2The pickNICE TRY RILEY (USA)pool 47% · model 54.7% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ
6Next bestCLASSIC EQUATION (USA)pool 0% · model 9.4% · PEDRO MONTERREY, JR.
5At a priceHARD TALK (USA)pool 0% · model 8.8% · MARCOS MENESES
Exacta box267Trifecta box2675Win2

NICE TRY RILEY (USA) (2) is the pick: model 55% against a 47% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge +7.2 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

CLASSIC EQUATION (USA) (6) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, HARD TALK (USA) (5) carries +8.8 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2NICE TRY RILEY (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · BEAU J. CHAPMAN · draw 2 · pool 47% · market #1+7.2#1
  2. 6CLASSIC EQUATION (USA)PEDRO MONTERREY, JR. · CARLOS NARVAEZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+9.4#2
  3. 7EL OREJON (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · STEVE KLESARIS · draw 7 · pool — · market #6+9.1#3
  4. 5HARD TALK (USA)MARCOS MENESES · RORY C. MILLER · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+8.8#4
  5. 1COMMENDATORE (USA)LEONEL REYES · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 1 · pool 19% · market #2-11.1#5
  6. 4RULE SEVENTY SIX (USA)PEDRO PENA · MARCIAL CORNEJO · draw 4 · pool 19% · market #3-12.8#6
  7. 3ARABIA WILD (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · GUSTAVO DELGADO · draw 3 · pool 14% · market #4-10.5#7

Race 9 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Usable
1600m Çim · Şartlı · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizler · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
1The pickWIN N JUICE (USA)pool 30% · model 28.6% · RASHEED HUGHES
4Next bestPROST (USA)pool 30% · model 22.2% · YOLBER TORRES
9At a priceNICKEL C (USA)pool 0% · model 9.6% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ
Exacta box142Trifecta box1429Win1

WIN N JUICE (USA) (1) is the pick: model 29% against a 30% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge -1.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

PROST (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, NICKEL C (USA) (9) carries +9.6 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1WIN N JUICE (USA)RASHEED HUGHES · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 1 · pool 30% · market #1-1.7#1
  2. 4PROST (USA)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 4 · pool 30% · market #2-8.1#2
  3. 2MY VOODOO DOLL (USA)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+10.0#3
  4. 9NICKEL C (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · DAVID FAWKES · draw 9 · pool — · market #7+9.6#4
  5. 5WON FOR LOU (USA)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 5 · pool — · market #8+9.3#5
  6. 8SOUPER ATTENTIVE (USA)SONNY LEON · MARK E. CASSE · draw 8 · pool — · market #9+8.6#6
  7. 3AEGON TARGARYEN (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · GERALD S. BENNETT · draw 3 · pool 14% · market #3-9.3#7
  8. 7JUSTIN SMILES (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 7 · pool 14% · market #4-9.6#8
  9. 6GUS SWAYZE (USA)PEDRO PENA · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 6 · pool 11% · market #5-8.8#9

Race 1 · Santa Anita Park · 9 runners

Thin form
1600m Çim · Maiden/Dişi · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizler · 8 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
7The pickPLATINUM GROOVE (USA)pool 24% · model 24.5% · HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS
1Next bestTRAINING GOOD (USA)pool 25% · model 17.8% · VICTOR ESPINOZA
2At a priceCYCLONE CLAIRE (USA)pool 0% · model 8.5% · ARMANDO AYUSO
Exacta box714Trifecta box7142Win7

PLATINUM GROOVE (USA) (7) is the pick: model 24% against a 24% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +0.7 points.

The pool makes TRAINING GOOD (USA) (1) favourite at 25%; the model rates it 18%, so we overturn the favourite.

TRAINING GOOD (USA) (1) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, CYCLONE CLAIRE (USA) (2) carries +8.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7PLATINUM GROOVE (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · JEFF MULLINS · draw 7 · pool 24% · market #2+0.7#1
  2. 1TRAINING GOOD (USA)VICTOR ESPINOZA · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 1 · pool 25% · market #1-6.9#2
  3. 4ALITTLETOOFABULOUS (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · CARLA GAINES · draw 4 · pool 22% · market #4-5.1#3
  4. 5DANZING DAISY (USA)TYLER BAZE · SEAN MCCARTHY · draw 5 · pool 23% · market #3-7.3#4
  5. 2CYCLONE CLAIRE (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 2 · pool — · market #8+8.5#5
  6. 6KITTY MAC (USA)WELFIN R. ORANTES · EDWIN G. ALVAREZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #9+6.3#6
  7. 9LOW LA BUNNY (USA)JULIEN R. LEPAROUX · JAMEY R. THOMAS · draw 9 · pool 4% · market #5+0.7#7
  8. 3UNUSUALEXIS (USA)KYLE FREY · ALEXIS BARBA · draw 3 · pool 2% · market #6+1.4#8
  9. 8BARRA ROZA (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 8 · pool 1% · market #7+1.8#9

Race 2 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

Usable
1600m Kum · SATIŞ KOŞUSU Şartlı/Dişi · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizler · 6 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
1The pickRYTHEM GIRL (USA)pool 30% · model 24.3% · TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA
4Next bestPERFECT LIFE (USA)pool 22% · model 21.2% · ARMANDO AGUILAR
2At a priceMASTERY KAT (USA)pool 0% · model 11.9% · JEREMY LAPRIDA
Exacta box143Trifecta box1432Win1

RYTHEM GIRL (USA) (1) is the pick: model 24% against a 30% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -6.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

PERFECT LIFE (USA) (4) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, MASTERY KAT (USA) (2) carries +11.9 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1RYTHEM GIRL (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · BILL MCLEAN · draw 1 · pool 30% · market #1-6.0#1
  2. 4PERFECT LIFE (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · JOSE R. VALDEZ · draw 3 · pool 22% · market #4-1.0#2
  3. 3BIG SOIREE (USA)SCRATCHED · draw 6 · pool 23% · market #2-2.9#3
  4. 6THERESASILVERLININ (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 5 · pool 23% · market #3-3.3#4
  5. 2MASTERY KAT (USA)JEREMY LAPRIDA · JAMEY R. THOMAS · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+11.9#5
  6. 5SEXY BLUE (USA)ADRIAN ESCOBEDO · ANGEL VEGA · draw 4 · pool 1% · market #5+1.4#6

Race 3 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

NO POOL YET
1600m Çim · OPSİYONEL SATIŞ KOŞUSU Şartlı/Dişi · 3 Yaşlı İngilizler · 6 of 6 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (no US form on file or the pool has not opened). The order below is the market only.

  1. 6CORTINA D'AMPREZZO (IRE)UMBERTO RISPOLI · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 6 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1DARE GREATLY (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · PETER MILLER · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 3CAMILA CATALINA (USA)JULIEN R. LEPAROUX · ROBERT B. HESS, JR. · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 4MESMERIZE (USA)MIKE E. SMITH · RICHARD E. MANDELLA · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5WAITING FOR YOU (GB)ARMANDO AYUSO · LEONARD POWELL · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2SOUL SISTER (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · KAREN HEADLEY · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6

Race 4 · Santa Anita Park · 5 runners

Usable
1200m Kum · Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes Açık /2 · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizle · 5 of 5 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
2The pickIMAGINATION (USA)pool 1% · model 23.6% · JUAN J. HERNANDEZ
1Next bestLISTENUPSHANCE (USA)pool 0% · model 20.6% · EMISAEL JARAMILLO
3At a priceAHRENS (USA)pool 0% · model 15.8% · JOEL ROSARIO
Exacta box215Trifecta box2153Win2

IMAGINATION (USA) (2) is the pick: model 24% against a 1% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge -26.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

LISTENUPSHANCE (USA) (1) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, AHRENS (USA) (3) carries +15.8 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2IMAGINATION (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · BOB BAFFERT · draw 2 · pool 1% · market #1-26.4#1
  2. 1LISTENUPSHANCE (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+20.6#2
  3. 5MAXIMUM BOURBON (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 5 · pool — · market #4+20.5#3
  4. 4MARCH OF TIME (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · BOB BAFFERT · draw 4 · pool 1% · market #2-30.5#4
  5. 3AHRENS (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+15.8#5

Race 5 · Santa Anita Park · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
1600m Kum · SATIŞ KOŞUSU Şartlı · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizler · 9 of 9 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (no US form on file or the pool has not opened). The order below is the market only.

  1. 9FIGHT BACK (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · ANDY MATHIS · draw 9 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 7HONDO CROUCH (USA)ABEL LEZCANO · MARK GLATT · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4TESSUTO (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · PETER MILLER · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 3SMOOTH SALUTE (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · ALFREDO P. MARQUEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 8FOMO JOE (USA)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · RYAN HANSON · draw 8 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 5TEE N OFF (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 2SPIRITUAL ADVISOR (USA)WELFIN R. ORANTES · JEFF BONDE · draw 2 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 1MILLBO BAGGINS (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · JOSE RAUDALES · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 6TIGGRRR WHITWORTH (USA)VICTOR ESPINOZA · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 6 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 6 · Santa Anita Park · 11 runners

Thin form
1600m Kum · MAIDEN SATIŞ KOŞUSU Maiden · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizler · 9 of 11 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
3The pickWHYNOTANOTHERONE (CAN)pool 0% · model 11.4% · ARMANDO AYUSO
2Next bestWAR ARTIST (USA)pool 0% · model 9.9% · ABEL LEZCANO
6At a priceFREDDY FIVE FOUR (USA)pool 0% · model 9.4% · VICTOR ESPINOZA
Exacta box325Trifecta box3256Win3

WHYNOTANOTHERONE (CAN) (3) is the pick: model 11% against a 0% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +11.4 points.

The pool makes SIGMA BOY (USA) (4) favourite at 2%; the model rates it 10%, so we overturn the favourite.

WAR ARTIST (USA) (2) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, FREDDY FIVE FOUR (USA) (6) carries +9.4 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3WHYNOTANOTHERONE (CAN)ARMANDO AYUSO · ROBERT B. HESS, JR. · draw 3 · pool — · market #3+11.4#1
  2. 2WAR ARTIST (USA)ABEL LEZCANO · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+9.9#2
  3. 5HOOSICK FALLS (USA)KYLE FREY · JEFF MULLINS · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+9.7#3
  4. 4SIGMA BOY (USA)WANDRYCK CARDOSO FRANCO · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 4 · pool 2% · market #1-40.5#4
  5. 6FREDDY FIVE FOUR (USA)VICTOR ESPINOZA · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+9.4#5
  6. 1RAPID ASCENT (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 1 · pool — · market #7+9.1#6
  7. 11PERFECTIONACHIEVED (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · O. J. JAUREGUI · draw 11 · pool 2% · market #2-41.2#7
  8. 10MARION MAGIC (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · PAUL G. AGUIRRE · draw 10 · pool — · market #8+8.7#8
  9. 9KING OF SUCCESS (USA)WELFIN R. ORANTES · JEFF BONDE · draw 9 · pool — · market #9+8.0#9
  10. 7SHARONS MAXFIELD (USA)EPIFANIO GARCIA · RICHARD BALTAS · draw 7 · pool — · market #10+7.7#10
  11. 8PRIZE CANDY (USA)JOSE VALDIVIA, JR. · DANIEL DUNHAM · draw 8 · pool — · market #11+7.7#11

Race 7 · Santa Anita Park · 11 runners

Thin form
1200m Çim · Maiden · 2 Yaşlı İngilizler · 8 of 11 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
1The pickGOLDEN CLUB (USA)pool 38% · model 43.8% · JUAN J. HERNANDEZ
11Next bestCHISELED IN STONE (USA)pool 26% · model 8.1% · ARMANDO AYUSO
5At a priceHALO HOWIE (USA)pool 0% · model 6.9% · KAZUSHI KIMURA
Exacta box1112Trifecta box11125Win1

GOLDEN CLUB (USA) (1) is the pick: model 44% against a 38% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +6.2 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

CHISELED IN STONE (USA) (11) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, HALO HOWIE (USA) (5) carries +6.9 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1GOLDEN CLUB (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · CRAIG ANTHONY LEWIS · draw 1 · pool 38% · market #1+6.2#1
  2. 11CHISELED IN STONE (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 11 · pool 26% · market #2-17.6#2
  3. 2LITTLE KING (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 2 · pool — · market #5+7.9#3
  4. 5HALO HOWIE (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · AGGIE ORDONEZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+6.9#4
  5. 6BOTTLED IN BOND (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · CARLA GAINES · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+6.7#5
  6. 10FUMO GRIGIO (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · CHARLES S. TREECE · draw 10 · pool — · market #8+6.0#6
  7. 9HALLAGREY (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · MIKE PUYPE · draw 9 · pool — · market #9+5.6#7
  8. 7BO DIDDLEY (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 7 · pool 22% · market #3-16.6#8
  9. 8HAUNTED HOUSE (USA)KYLE FREY · GARY STUTE · draw 8 · pool — · market #10+4.5#9
  10. 4SMOKE RIDER (USA)FRANCISCO MONROY · ADAN FARIAS · draw 4 · pool — · market #11+4.2#10
  11. 3POPPI'S CHARLIE (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · MANUEL P. BADILLA · draw 3 · pool 15% · market #4-13.7#11

Race 8 · Santa Anita Park · 7 runners

Usable
1700m Kum · Zenyatta Stakes Açık/Dişi /2 · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizler · 6 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
6The pickRABEEBA (USA)pool 30% · model 24.0% · JUAN J. HERNANDEZ
2Next bestSHE'S NO QUANT (USA)pool 27% · model 19.6% · HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS
5At a priceHOWIN (USA)pool 0% · model 14.9% · EMISAEL JARAMILLO
Exacta box627Trifecta box6275Win6

RABEEBA (USA) (6) is the pick: model 24% against a 30% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -5.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SHE'S NO QUANT (USA) (2) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, HOWIN (USA) (5) carries +14.9 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6RABEEBA (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · BOB BAFFERT · draw 6 · pool 30% · market #1-5.7#1
  2. 2SHE'S NO QUANT (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · EDWARD R. FREEMAN · draw 2 · pool 27% · market #2-7.2#2
  3. 7MAGNIFICAT (USA)MIKE E. SMITH · RICHARD E. MANDELLA · draw 7 · pool 24% · market #3-8.5#3
  4. 5HOWIN (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · BOB BAFFERT · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+14.9#4
  5. 4OM N JOY (USA)KENT J. DESORMEAUX · AGGIE ORDONEZ · draw 4 · pool 19% · market #4-5.1#5
  6. 3SUPER CORREDORA (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+10.0#6
  7. 1MAJESTIC OOPS (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 1 · pool 1% · market #5+1.7#7

Race 1 · Laurel Park · 12 runners

Usable
1100m Çim · SATIŞ KOŞUSU Şartlı · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizler · 12 of 12 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
6The pickCOPERNIUM (USA)pool 38% · model 30.5% · JORGE RUIZ
4Next bestKORRONGO (USA)pool 29% · model 22.8% · ANGEL CRUZ
10At a priceBENNY HAVENS (USA)pool 0% · model 6.6% · JAIME RODRIGUEZ
Exacta box643Trifecta box64310Win6

COPERNIUM (USA) (6) is the pick: model 30% against a 38% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge -7.2 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

KORRONGO (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, BENNY HAVENS (USA) (10) carries +6.6 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6COPERNIUM (USA)JORGE RUIZ · KIERON MAGEE · draw 6 · pool 38% · market #1-7.2#1
  2. 4KORRONGO (USA)ANGEL CRUZ · JUAN G. BERNARDINI · draw 4 · pool 29% · market #2-5.9#2
  3. 3BONSAI WARRIOR (USA)JEIRON BARBOSA · ANTHONY FARRIOR · draw 3 · pool — · market #8+7.3#3
  4. 10BENNY HAVENS (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · ANTHONY AGUIRRE, JR. · draw 10 · pool — · market #9+6.6#4
  5. 8SINETIC (USA)LEANDRO M. BRICENO · ANTONIO MACHADO · draw 8 · pool — · market #10+5.7#5
  6. 12TWIRLING EXPRESS (USA)LUIS M. OCASIO · ELLIOTT SOTO- MARTINEZ · draw 12 · pool — · market #11+5.2#6
  7. 11ARCHIMEDES (USA)JEVIAN TOLEDO · ANTHONY FARRIOR · draw 0 · pool 8% · market #4-2.7#7
  8. 2TRANSACTIONAL (GB)JEAN GREGOR BRICENO · LAWRENCE M. SMITH · draw 2 · pool — · market #12+4.8#8
  9. 1STONE COLD JONES (USA)CARLOS EDUARDO LOPEZ · EMANUEL J. GERALIS · draw 1 · pool 9% · market #3-4.8#9
  10. 5LET FLY (USA)JOSE E. VARGAS · A. FERRIS ALLEN III · draw 5 · pool 8% · market #5-4.2#10
  11. 9WHENEVERUREMEMBER (USA)HORACIO KARAMANOS · MICHAEL J. TROMBETTA · draw 9 · pool 5% · market #6-2.4#11
  12. 7BORLETTI (IRE)BRITTANY SCAMPTON · CHRISTINE F. CLAGETT · draw 7 · pool 4% · market #7-2.2#12

Race 2 · Laurel Park · 7 runners

Thin form
1600m Kum · SATIŞ KOŞUSU Şartlı · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizler · 4 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
1The pickMAGNIFICENT RAGS (USA)pool 27% · model 28.0% · JEIRON BARBOSA
4Next bestPAYNTED LION (USA)pool 30% · model 26.9% · JOSE A. BATISTA
6At a priceFEISTY NOTION (USA)pool 0% · model 13.2% · WARREN EBOW III
Exacta box142Trifecta box1426Win1

MAGNIFICENT RAGS (USA) (1) is the pick: model 28% against a 27% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +1.2 points.

The pool makes PAYNTED LION (USA) (4) favourite at 30%; the model rates it 27%, so we overturn the favourite.

PAYNTED LION (USA) (4) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, FEISTY NOTION (USA) (6) carries +13.2 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1MAGNIFICENT RAGS (USA)JEIRON BARBOSA · MICHAEL E. JONES, JR. · draw 1 · pool 27% · market #2+1.2#1
  2. 4PAYNTED LION (USA)JOSE A. BATISTA · NESVIL HERNAN BAILON · draw 4 · pool 30% · market #1-2.8#2
  3. 2VENETO (USA)LEANDRO M. BRICENO · JOSE CORRALES · draw 2 · pool 17% · market #3-3.0#3
  4. 6FEISTY NOTION (USA)WARREN EBOW III · GARY L. WILLIAMS, JR. · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+13.2#4
  5. 5FURIOUS GEORGE (USA)MATILDA BURNHAM · DAMON R. DILODOVICO · draw 5 · pool 16% · market #4-5.5#5
  6. 7COCO NO LOCO (USA)TAYLOR KINGSLEY · GERARD GALLIGAN · draw 7 · pool 7% · market #5-1.8#6
  7. 3UNCLE GREY (USA)LEONARDO CORUJO · TIMOTHY M. VICK · draw 3 · pool 4% · market #6-1.3#7

Race 3 · Laurel Park · 12 runners

Usable
1700m Çim · SATIŞ KOŞUSU Şartlı · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizler · 11 of 12 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
7The pickVILLAIN (USA)pool 4% · model 44.5% · JAIME RODRIGUEZ
4Next bestMR FLOWERS (USA)pool 0% · model 8.4% · MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ
11At a priceKEEN TALENT (USA)pool 0% · model 5.9% · JEIRON BARBOSA
Exacta box742Trifecta box74211Win7

VILLAIN (USA) (7) is the pick: model 44% against a 4% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge -22.2 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MR FLOWERS (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, KEEN TALENT (USA) (11) carries +5.9 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7VILLAIN (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 7 · pool 4% · market #1-22.2#1
  2. 4MR FLOWERS (USA)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 4 · pool — · market #3+8.4#2
  3. 2OWHATANITE (USA)JEIRON BARBOSA · SUZANNE STETTINIUS · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+6.9#3
  4. 11KEEN TALENT (USA)JEIRON BARBOSA · ANTHONY FARRIOR · draw 11 · pool — · market #5+5.9#4
  5. 5FLAMENCO STAR (USA)JOHAN ROSADO · JORGE DUARTE, JR. · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+5.1#5
  6. 10ATOMICO (USA)ANGEL CRUZ · ROBERT A. WOLFE, JR. · draw 10 · pool — · market #7+5.0#6
  7. 6WEST MOUNTAIN (USA)KEVIN GOMEZ · CAITLIN KEIL · draw 6 · pool — · market #8+5.0#7
  8. 9SNEAKING SUSPICION (USA)TAYLOR KINGSLEY · ANTHONY AGUIRRE, JR. · draw 9 · pool — · market #9+4.7#8
  9. 12RED SKY MORNING (USA)JULIO A. HERNANDEZ · MICHAEL DINI · draw 12 · pool — · market #10+4.5#9
  10. 3TYSON'S DELIVERY (USA)JEAN GREGOR BRICENO · SERGIO H. PRADENAS · draw 3 · pool — · market #11+4.5#10
  11. 1ITALIANO KID (USA)GAVIN ASHTON · IRVIN G. FLORES · draw 1 · pool — · market #12+4.5#11
  12. 8LATIN REBEL (USA)CARLOS EDUARDO LOPEZ · MARK SHUMAN · draw 8 · pool 2% · market #2-32.5#12

Race 4 · Laurel Park · 16 runners

Thin form
1700m Çim · MAIDEN SATIŞ KOŞUSU Maiden · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizler · 10 of 16 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
3The pickTARGET MARKET (USA)pool 0% · model 8.1% · JORGE RUIZ
2Next bestCLASSIC MARTINI (USA)pool 0% · model 7.2% · WARREN EBOW III
8At a priceMOONLIT FROST (USA)pool 0% · model 6.5% · JAIME RODRIGUEZ
Exacta box3212Trifecta box32128Win3

TARGET MARKET (USA) (3) is the pick: model 8% against a 0% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +8.1 points.

The pool makes RED SEA (USA) (15) favourite at 2%; the model rates it 7%, so we overturn the favourite.

CLASSIC MARTINI (USA) (2) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, MOONLIT FROST (USA) (8) carries +6.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3TARGET MARKET (USA)JORGE RUIZ · JORGE DUARTE, JR. · draw 3 · pool — · market #3+8.1#1
  2. 2CLASSIC MARTINI (USA)WARREN EBOW III · ALBERTO DELGADO · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+7.2#2
  3. 12CALL ME A TAXI (USA)CARLOS EDUARDO LOPEZ · PHILLIP CAPUANO · draw 12 · pool — · market #5+7.2#3
  4. 15RED SEA (USA)HORACIO KARAMANOS · A. FERRIS ALLEN III · draw 15 · pool 2% · market #1-43.4#4
  5. 8MOONLIT FROST (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · DAMON R. DILODOVICO · draw 8 · pool — · market #6+6.5#5
  6. 9BIG BOY LUKA (USA)ISMERIO VILLALOBOS · ANTHONY AGUIRRE · draw 9 · pool — · market #7+6.3#6
  7. 4BEAUTIFUL QUALITY (USA)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · SUSAN S. COONEY · draw 4 · pool — · market #8+6.2#7
  8. 16PLENTY ON TAP (USA)JORGE RUIZ · TIM WOOLLEY · draw 16 · pool — · market #9+6.2#8
  9. 1FIERY DEBUT (USA)BRITTANY SCAMPTON · ELIZABETH MCCUE · draw 1 · pool — · market #10+6.2#9
  10. 7NOSTROMO (USA)TAYLOR KINGSLEY · DANIELLE HODSDON · draw 7 · pool — · market #11+6.1#10
  11. 10RATTLEJACK (USA)GAVIN ASHTON · FENNEKA T. BENTLEY · draw 10 · pool — · market #12+6.0#11
  12. 13LONG STRAW (USA)LEONARDO CORUJO · TIMOTHY M. VICK · draw 13 · pool 2% · market #2-44.2#12
  13. 14ALL FRUITS RIPE (USA)JOSE E. VARGAS · VALRIE SMITH · draw 14 · pool — · market #13+5.6#13
  14. 5TEDDY P (USA)KEVIN GOMEZ · HAMILTON A. SMITH · draw 5 · pool — · market #14+5.4#14
  15. 11RIVER REVIVAL (USA)MAGGLIO SANCHEZ · SUSAN S. COONEY · draw 11 · pool — · market #15+5.3#15
  16. 6PHANTOM GOLD (USA)LEANDRO M. BRICENO · MILAN MILOSEVIC · draw 6 · pool — · market #16+5.3#16

Race 5 · Laurel Park · 9 runners

Blind
1400m Kum · MAIDEN SATIŞ KOŞUSU Maiden/Dişi · 2 Yaşlı İngilizler · 3 of 9 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (no US form on file or the pool has not opened). The order below is the market only.

  1. 2STOIC RESERVE (USA)JOSE E. VARGAS · HAMILTON A. SMITH · draw 2 · pool 10% · market #1—#1
  2. 6WHACKY WITCH (USA)JEVIAN TOLEDO · ANTHONY FARRIOR · draw 6 · pool 8% · market #2—#2
  3. 9ASHLEY H (USA)JEIRON BARBOSA · ANTHONY FARRIOR · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#3
  4. 8SENSE THE MOON (USA)HORACIO KARAMANOS · A. FERRIS ALLEN III · draw 8 · pool — · market #5—#4
  5. 1THINK PINK (USA)JULIO A. HERNANDEZ · MICHAEL R. MATZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#5
  6. 4BANGKOK BLAZE (USA)JEAN GREGOR BRICENO · JOSE CORRALES · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#6
  7. 3DOE'S LEMONADE (USA)LEANDRO M. BRICENO · JONATHAN MALDONADO · draw 3 · pool — · market #8—#7
  8. 7A. P. CLASS (USA)TAYLOR KINGSLEY · KEVIN C. BONIFACE · draw 7 · pool — · market #9—#8
  9. 5SILVER STRINGS (USA)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · BRITTANY T. RUSSELL · draw 5 · pool 5% · market #3—#9

Race 6 · Laurel Park · 10 runners

Usable
1100m Çim · OPSİYONEL SATIŞ KOŞUSU Şartlı · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizler · 8 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
3The pickWAR HUMOR (USA)pool 6% · model 24.9% · JOSE E. VARGAS
2Next bestNORMANDY HERO (USA)pool 5% · model 20.1% · MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ
8At a priceANTISOCIAL (USA)pool 0% · model 9.1% · JORGE RUIZ
Exacta box321Trifecta box3218Win3

WAR HUMOR (USA) (3) is the pick: model 25% against a 6% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -12.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

NORMANDY HERO (USA) (2) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, ANTISOCIAL (USA) (8) carries +9.1 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3WAR HUMOR (USA)JOSE E. VARGAS · W. ROBERT BAILES · draw 2 · pool 6% · market #1-12.6#1
  2. 2NORMANDY HERO (USA)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 1 · pool 5% · market #2-11.1#2
  3. 1PETCOFF (USA)SHELDON RUSSELL · BRITTANY T. RUSSELL · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+10.4#3
  4. 8ANTISOCIAL (USA)JORGE RUIZ · JORGE DUARTE, JR. · draw 9 · pool — · market #6+9.1#4
  5. 4NEONATE (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · STEVE KLESARIS · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+8.1#5
  6. 7TWISTED FILIGREE (USA)VINCENT CHEMINAUD · HORACIO DEPAZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+7.7#6
  7. 6JESSICA'S EYES (USA)XAVIER PEREZ · JOHN J. ROBB · draw 5 · pool — · market #9+7.3#7
  8. 9FIRMANTOWN (USA)ANGEL CRUZ · CARLOS A. MANCILLA · draw 10 · pool — · market #10+5.8#8
  9. 5KNOCKANARA (USA)JEIRON BARBOSA · SARAH NAGLE · draw 4 · pool 3% · market #3-13.7#9
  10. 10MIZNER (USA)SHELDON RUSSELL · BRITTANY T. RUSSELL · draw 8 · pool 2% · market #4-11.0#10

Race 7 · Laurel Park · 13 runners

Thin form
1100m Çim · Şartlı · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizler · 8 of 13 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
1The pickPARKES (USA)pool 31% · model 22.7% · JOSEPH ROCCO, JR.
4Next bestLAYSEN (USA)pool 31% · model 18.8% · EMANUEL ROSARIO
12At a priceBARBADOS BUZZ (USA)pool 0% · model 7.0% · MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ
Exacta box147Trifecta box14712Win1

PARKES (USA) (1) is the pick: model 23% against a 31% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge -8.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

LAYSEN (USA) (4) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, BARBADOS BUZZ (USA) (12) carries +7.0 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1PARKES (USA)JOSEPH ROCCO, JR. · SUZANNE STETTINIUS · draw 1 · pool 31% · market #1-8.0#1
  2. 4LAYSEN (USA)EMANUEL ROSARIO · W. THOMAS MCMAHON · draw 4 · pool 31% · market #2-11.9#2
  3. 7FRYE ISLAND (IRE)JEVIAN TOLEDO · HASSAN ELAMRI · draw 7 · pool 18% · market #3-8.7#3
  4. 12BARBADOS BUZZ (USA)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · BRITTANY T. RUSSELL · draw 12 · pool — · market #7+7.0#4
  5. 11BOASTFULLY IRISH (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · H. GRAHAM MOTION · draw 11 · pool — · market #8+6.9#5
  6. 2SPRING DECISION (USA)JEIRON BARBOSA · NIALL SAVILLE · draw 2 · pool — · market #9+6.2#6
  7. 13BOLD FACT (USA)KEVIN GOMEZ · W. ROBERT BAILES · draw 13 · pool — · market #10+6.2#7
  8. 9VIRTUOSITY (USA)JORGE RUIZ · MICHAEL J. TROMBETTA · draw 9 · pool — · market #11+6.1#8
  9. 8ALEXIS ZORBA (GB)CHARLIE MARQUEZ · HUGH I. MCMAHON · draw 8 · pool — · market #12+6.1#9
  10. 5HOLY MOLY MITOLE (USA)ANGEL CRUZ · NANCY B. HEIL · draw 5 · pool — · market #13+5.5#10
  11. 3LUCA MACHINE (USA)HORACIO KARAMANOS · EDWARD T. ALLARD · draw 3 · pool 7% · market #4-4.9#11
  12. 6ROOMMATE MARTIN (USA)LEANDRO M. BRICENO · JAMES M. CASEY · draw 6 · pool 7% · market #5-5.2#12
  13. 10START TAPPIN (USA)JEAN GREGOR BRICENO · MIGUEL VERA · draw 10 · pool 7% · market #6-5.3#13

Race 8 · Laurel Park · 7 runners

Thin form
1400m Kum · Maiden/Dişi · 3 ve Yukarı İngilizler · 4 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
4The pickSTONE COLD KELLY (USA)pool 40% · model 32.7% · JEIRON BARBOSA
2Next bestROCKER ROLLER (USA)pool 38% · model 32.1% · MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ
7At a priceKINDA KRAZY (USA)pool 0% · model 9.8% · JAIME RODRIGUEZ
Exacta box423Trifecta box4237Win4

STONE COLD KELLY (USA) (4) is the pick: model 33% against a 40% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -7.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

ROCKER ROLLER (USA) (2) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, KINDA KRAZY (USA) (7) carries +9.8 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4STONE COLD KELLY (USA)JEIRON BARBOSA · A. FERRIS ALLEN III · draw 4 · pool 40% · market #1-7.3#1
  2. 2ROCKER ROLLER (USA)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · BRITTANY T. RUSSELL · draw 2 · pool 38% · market #2-5.9#2
  3. 3MO LAKE TIME (USA)JULIO A. HERNANDEZ · H. GRAHAM MOTION · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+11.4#3
  4. 7KINDA KRAZY (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · RODOLFO SANCHEZ-SALOMON · draw 7 · pool — · market #6+9.8#4
  5. 5SPICY KARAMELO (USA)WILFREDO CORUJO · NAOISE AGNEW · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+7.4#5
  6. 1GEM ON TOUR (USA)JEAN GREGOR BRICENO · SOMRAJ SINGH · draw 1 · pool 12% · market #3-8.6#6
  7. 6KISS ME MO (USA)JOSE E. VARGAS · KERRY HOHLBEIN · draw 6 · pool 10% · market #4-6.8#7

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.