Race 2 · Santa Anita Parkpool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 3SPRINGLINE (USA)+13.653% · 39%
  2. 4GOOD GOLLY DOLLY (USA)-2.818% · 21%
  3. 5UNION HEIRESS (USA)-3.218% · 21%
  4. 1SUGAR REIGN (USA)-3.26% · 9%
  5. 2DANZIG TIL DAWN (USA)-4.45% · 9%
SPRINGLINE (USA) is the pick: model 53% against a 39% pool share · verdict ↓

See more in every US race

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

16 races today · 9 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Sun 4 Oct 2026 · 2 tracks9 usable of 16 races · model overturns the favourite in 4Written Sun 04 Oct 2026, 03:07 ET · permalink

2 of 16 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Sun 4 Oct 2026

16 races across Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Thin form
8f Turf · MAIDEN SOptional claiming Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 5 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
8The pickKISSED BY A ROSE (USA)pool 43% · model 39.7% · DIEGO A. HERRERA
9Next bestGRANT ME PEACE (USA)pool 16% · model 14.6% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ
1At a priceDAUGHTER'S LEGACY (USA)pool 0% · model 7.5% · JONATHAN OCASIO
Exacta box894Trifecta box8941Win8

KISSED BY A ROSE (USA) (8) is the pick: model 40% against a 43% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -3.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

GRANT ME PEACE (USA) (9) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, DAUGHTER'S LEGACY (USA) (1) carries +7.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 8KISSED BY A ROSE (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · RONALD B. SPATZ · draw 8 · pool 43% · market #1-3.3#1
  2. 9GRANT ME PEACE (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · NICHOLAS PALMER · draw 9 · pool 16% · market #2-1.4#2
  3. 4CATHEDRAL SUN (USA)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 4 · pool 16% · market #3-4.0#3
  4. 6PRETTY PITA (USA)MARCOS MENESES · J. KENT SWEEZEY · draw 6 · pool 10% · market #4-2.1#4
  5. 1DAUGHTER'S LEGACY (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 1 · pool — · market #8+7.5#5
  6. 2HATTIE G (USA)HERIBERTO FIGUEROA · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 2 · pool — · market #9+6.1#6
  7. 7STARSHIP CONTENDER (USA)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 7 · pool 5% · market #5-0.0#7
  8. 5GRAND HEIRESS (USA)J.G. TORREALBA · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 5 · pool 5% · market #6-0.8#8
  9. 3OLYMPIC KITTY (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · HUBER DOMINGUEZ · draw 3 · pool 5% · market #7-1.9#9

Race 2 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
4The pickBELLA JAK (USA)pool 51% · model 33.4% · DAVID BORACO
2Next bestAERIALIST (USA)pool 0% · model 14.5% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ
1At a priceTHE PACKAGE (USA)pool 0% · model 12.3% · LEONEL REYES
Exacta box426Trifecta box4261Win4

BELLA JAK (USA) (4) is the pick: model 33% against a 51% pool share, 8 runs of US form on file, edge -17.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

AERIALIST (USA) (2) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, THE PACKAGE (USA) (1) carries +12.3 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4BELLA JAK (USA)DAVID BORACO · LUIS DUCO · draw 4 · pool 51% · market #1-17.6#1
  2. 2AERIALIST (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · SEBASTIAN PULGARIN · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+14.5#2
  3. 6SPIRIT OF VICTORY (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · STEVE KLESARIS · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+13.0#3
  4. 5DAME'S ROCKET (USA)SONNY LEON · MARK E. CASSE · draw 5 · pool 30% · market #2-17.5#4
  5. 1THE PACKAGE (USA)LEONEL REYES · FRANK J. REGALBUTO · draw 1 · pool — · market #6+12.3#5
  6. 7MEET ME IN THE AIR (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+11.3#6
  7. 3LITTLE TOWN STREET (USA)PEDRO PENA · FERNANDO ABREU · draw 3 · pool 19% · market #3-16.1#7

Race 3 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
5f Turf · MAIDEN SOptional claiming Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 2 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5AMERICAN REIGN (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 7THE SECRET ANA (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 2CYNSTER (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · BEAU J. CHAPMAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 6STELLAR QUEEN (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · DAVID FAWKES · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 1LA LEAL (USA)EDGAR PEREZ · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 4MY LAST BUCKY (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · GERALD S. BENNETT · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 3ZACARRA (USA)HERIBERTO FIGUEROA · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 4 · Gulfstream Park · 6 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
1The pickFUOCO VIVO (USA)pool 14% · model 47.5% · EDWIN GONZALEZ
3Next bestHENDRICKSON (USA)pool 0% · model 13.0% · YOLBER TORRES
6At a priceADIOS MATE (USA)pool 0% · model 12.2% · PEDRO PENA
Exacta box134Trifecta box1346Win1

FUOCO VIVO (USA) (1) is the pick: model 48% against a 14% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge -30.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

HENDRICKSON (USA) (3) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, ADIOS MATE (USA) (6) carries +12.2 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1FUOCO VIVO (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · ROHAN G. CRICHTON · draw 1 · pool 14% · market #1-30.3#1
  2. 3HENDRICKSON (USA)YOLBER TORRES · MARK EAGAN · draw 3 · pool — · market #3+13.0#2
  3. 4WESTERN SHAFT (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · DANIEL C. HURTAK · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+12.9#3
  4. 6ADIOS MATE (USA)PEDRO PENA · JOSE GAROFFALO · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+12.2#4
  5. 2KAZOOZA (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · GARRETT W. ARSCOTT · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+11.4#5
  6. 5LOBO GO (USA)JONATHAN SANTOS · BARRY N. CROFT · draw 5 · pool 4% · market #2-19.2#6

Race 5 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
5f Turf · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1SOSUA SUMMER (USA)J.G. TORREALBA · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3SABIAN (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5GIANT TEDDY (CAN)DIEGO A. HERRERA · ANDREA L. PUCKETT · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 9FULANITO (USA)PEDRO PENA · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 8EAMONN (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 8 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2XY SPEED (USA)LEONEL REYES · MICHAEL LERMAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 6TEST FACTOR (USA)NIK JUAREZ · ROHAN G. CRICHTON · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 7GABALDON (USA)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 4WHITE BULLET (USA)CARLOS MARTINEZ · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 6 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
7f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
1The pickON MY TIME (USA)pool 11% · model 17.8% · SONNY LEON
3Next bestMOISSANITE (USA)pool 0% · model 15.9% · DIEGO A. HERRERA
6At a priceCONQUISTADORA (USA)pool 0% · model 13.7% · LEONEL REYES
Exacta box134Trifecta box1346Win1

ON MY TIME (USA) (1) is the pick: model 18% against a 11% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge -82.2 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MOISSANITE (USA) (3) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, CONQUISTADORA (USA) (6) carries +13.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1ON MY TIME (USA)SONNY LEON · MARK E. CASSE · draw 1 · pool 11% · market #1-82.2#1
  2. 3MOISSANITE (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · DAVID FAWKES · draw 3 · pool — · market #2+15.9#2
  3. 4LADY ROCKULA (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 4 · pool — · market #3+15.1#3
  4. 6CONQUISTADORA (USA)LEONEL REYES · FRANCISCO ALANIS · draw 6 · pool — · market #4+13.7#4
  5. 2BON VIVANT (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · ANTONIO SANO · draw 2 · pool — · market #5+13.1#5
  6. 5ALWAYS PRAISING (USA)HERIBERTO FIGUEROA · DILEY A. DAKIN · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+12.5#6
  7. 7IBIS (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · FRANCISCO ALANIS · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+11.8#7

Race 7 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
5The pickETENDRE (USA)pool 29% · model 19.7% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ
7Next bestHOLY STICK (CHI)pool 24% · model 17.9% · MARCOS MENESES
3At a priceCAPTURE THE TIME (USA)pool 0% · model 13.7% · EDWIN GONZALEZ
Exacta box574Trifecta box5743Win5

ETENDRE (USA) (5) is the pick: model 20% against a 29% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge -9.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

HOLY STICK (CHI) (7) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, CAPTURE THE TIME (USA) (3) carries +13.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5ETENDRE (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · DANIEL C. HURTAK · draw 5 · pool 29% · market #1-9.0#1
  2. 7HOLY STICK (CHI)MARCOS MENESES · AMADOR MEREI SANCHEZ · draw 7 · pool 24% · market #2-5.9#2
  3. 4SCHNITTKER (USA)CARLOS MARTINEZ · ANGEL M. RODRIGUEZ · draw 4 · pool 23% · market #3-6.0#3
  4. 6CHAPLIN (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · JOSE M. CASTRO · draw 6 · pool 23% · market #4-6.1#4
  5. 3CAPTURE THE TIME (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · REYNALDO YANEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+13.7#5
  6. 2TORCH IS PASSED (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · NOLAN RAMSEY · draw 2 · pool — · market #7+13.4#6
  7. 1CROSS HASTE (USA)SONNY LEON · DOUGLAS NUNN · draw 1 · pool 2% · market #5-0.1#7

Race 8 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
2The pickTHE DOVE RULES (USA)pool 23% · model 23.5% · EDWIN GONZALEZ
3Next bestAMANDE (USA)pool 25% · model 23.4% · LEONEL REYES
4At a priceBOOT'S ON THE MOON (USA)pool 0% · model 10.6% · PEDRO PENA
Exacta box237Trifecta box2374Win2

THE DOVE RULES (USA) (2) is the pick: model 23% against a 23% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge +0.7 points.

The pool makes AMANDE (USA) (3) favourite at 25%; the model rates it 23%, so we overturn the favourite.

AMANDE (USA) (3) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, BOOT'S ON THE MOON (USA) (4) carries +10.6 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2THE DOVE RULES (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 2 · pool 23% · market #3+0.7#1
  2. 3AMANDE (USA)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 3 · pool 25% · market #1-1.4#2
  3. 7WOULD I LIE TO YOU (USA)RASHEED HUGHES · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 7 · pool 24% · market #2-6.3#3
  4. 5ZOLENE (USA)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 5 · pool 23% · market #4-6.2#4
  5. 4BOOT'S ON THE MOON (USA)PEDRO PENA · RONALD B. SPATZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #7+10.6#5
  6. 6VIKING QUEST (USA)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · LAUREN ROBSON · draw 6 · pool 3% · market #5+1.7#6
  7. 1UNCAPTURED DOVE (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · DAVID FAWKES · draw 1 · pool 3% · market #6+0.8#7

Race 1 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
3The pickLYLE THE CROCODILE (IRE)pool 56% · model 51.7% · JOEL ROSARIO
4Next bestPRINCE DOLCE (USA)pool 22% · model 13.8% · RICARDO GONZALEZ
2At a priceSHAMROCK GLITTER (FR)pool 0% · model 10.8% · JULIEN R. LEPAROUX
Exacta box341Trifecta box3412Win3

LYLE THE CROCODILE (IRE) (3) is the pick: model 52% against a 56% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -4.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

PRINCE DOLCE (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, SHAMROCK GLITTER (FR) (2) carries +10.8 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3LYLE THE CROCODILE (IRE)JOEL ROSARIO · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 3 · pool 56% · market #1-4.3#1
  2. 4PRINCE DOLCE (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 4 · pool 22% · market #2-8.2#2
  3. 1SIR ROCKET (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · NEIL D. DRYSDALE · draw 1 · pool — · market #5+11.0#3
  4. 2SHAMROCK GLITTER (FR)JULIEN R. LEPAROUX · NEIL D. DRYSDALE · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+10.8#4
  5. 6KNOWN IDEA (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 6 · pool 10% · market #4-3.6#5
  6. 5CENTRODELANTERO (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · HECTOR O. PALMA · draw 5 · pool 12% · market #3-5.8#6

Race 2 · Santa Anita Park · 5 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 5 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
3The pickSPRINGLINE (USA)pool 39% · model 53.0% · ARMANDO AYUSO
4Next bestGOOD GOLLY DOLLY (USA)pool 21% · model 18.4% · JOEL ROSARIO
Exacta box345Trifecta box345Win3

SPRINGLINE (USA) (3) is the pick: model 53% against a 39% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge +13.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

GOOD GOLLY DOLLY (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3SPRINGLINE (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · RYAN HANSON · draw 3 · pool 39% · market #1+13.6#1
  2. 4GOOD GOLLY DOLLY (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 4 · pool 21% · market #2-2.8#2
  3. 5UNION HEIRESS (USA)EPIFANIO GARCIA · D. WAYNE BAKER · draw 5 · pool 21% · market #3-3.2#3
  4. 1SUGAR REIGN (USA)KYLE FREY · ISIDRO TAMAYO · draw 1 · pool 9% · market #4-3.2#4
  5. 2DANZIG TIL DAWN (USA)JEREMY LAPRIDA · D. WAYNE BAKER · draw 2 · pool 9% · market #5-4.4#5

Race 3 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
5The pickSEPARATOR (USA)pool 0% · model 20.5% · EMISAEL JARAMILLO
3Next bestSURFIN THE COAST (USA)pool 0% · model 19.4% · KYLE FREY
6At a priceMAGIC JEWEL (USA)pool 0% · model 17.2% · ARMANDO AYUSO
Exacta box532Trifecta box5326Win5

SEPARATOR (USA) (5) is the pick: model 21% against a 0% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +20.5 points.

The pool makes ZADRA (USA) (1) favourite at 15%; the model rates it 13%, so we overturn the favourite.

SURFIN THE COAST (USA) (3) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, MAGIC JEWEL (USA) (6) carries +17.2 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5SEPARATOR (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 5 · pool — · market #2+20.5#1
  2. 3SURFIN THE COAST (USA)KYLE FREY · JEFF MULLINS · draw 3 · pool — · market #3+19.4#2
  3. 2GLORY'Z CLUBHOUSE (USA)TYLER BAZE · SEAN MCCARTHY · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+17.6#3
  4. 6MAGIC JEWEL (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+17.2#4
  5. 1ZADRA (USA)EPIFANIO GARCIA · D. WAYNE BAKER · draw 1 · pool 15% · market #1-87.1#5
  6. 4CELESTIAL SKIES (USA)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · GLORIA HALEY · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+12.4#6

Race 4 · Santa Anita Park · 5 runners

Thin form
8f Turf · Zuma Beach Stakes Açık /3 · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 3 of 5 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
5The pickREPO MAN (USA)pool 0% · model 22.8% · UMBERTO RISPOLI
2Next bestMAXIFY (USA)pool 0% · model 22.5% · JUAN J. HERNANDEZ
3At a priceDUTY BOUND (USA)pool 0% · model 17.6% · EMISAEL JARAMILLO
Exacta box524Trifecta box5243Win5

REPO MAN (USA) (5) is the pick: model 23% against a 0% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +22.8 points.

The pool makes A P OXBOW (USA) (1) favourite at 18%; the model rates it 18%, so we overturn the favourite.

MAXIFY (USA) (2) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, DUTY BOUND (USA) (3) carries +17.6 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5REPO MAN (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 5 · pool — · market #2+22.8#1
  2. 2MAXIFY (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+22.5#2
  3. 4OFF IN THE CORNER (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · PETER MILLER · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+19.2#3
  4. 1A P OXBOW (USA)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 1 · pool 18% · market #1-82.2#4
  5. 3DUTY BOUND (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · JACK SISTERSON · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+17.6#5

Race 5 · Santa Anita Park · 7 runners

Thin form
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
7The pickKEEP MOVIN' ON (USA)pool 45% · model 52.2% · JOEL ROSARIO
1Next bestSHORTMAN (USA)pool 0% · model 10.3% · CESAR ORTEGA
2At a priceSPIRITIST (USA)pool 0% · model 8.5% · ABEL LEZCANO
Exacta box716Trifecta box7162Win7

KEEP MOVIN' ON (USA) (7) is the pick: model 52% against a 45% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -2.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SHORTMAN (USA) (1) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, SPIRITIST (USA) (2) carries +8.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7KEEP MOVIN' ON (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · MARK GLATT · draw 7 · pool 45% · market #1-2.0#1
  2. 1SHORTMAN (USA)CESAR ORTEGA · OSCAR HEREDIA · draw 1 · pool — · market #4+10.3#2
  3. 6BIG JUANITO (USA)TYLER BAZE · ROBERT B. HESS, JR. · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+9.9#3
  4. 2SPIRITIST (USA)ABEL LEZCANO · ROLANDO QUINONEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+8.5#4
  5. 4KIDDO LIGHT (USA)ALI HUSAIN · JOSE R. VALDEZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #7+8.2#5
  6. 3CRYPTO RIDE (USA)KYLE FREY · SIMON HOBSON · draw 3 · pool 23% · market #2-20.1#6
  7. 5LOW EXPECTATIONS (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 5 · pool 15% · market #3-14.9#7

Race 6 · Santa Anita Park · 7 runners

Thin form
8f Turf · Surfer Girl Stakes Açık, fillies & mares /3 · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 5 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
5The pickVANTA (USA)pool 76% · model 51.0% · UMBERTO RISPOLI
7Next bestLESS PLEASE (USA)pool 0% · model 11.7% · HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS
6At a priceRIVER IN PARADISE (GB)pool 0% · model 9.1% · DRAYDEN VAN DYKE
Exacta box573Trifecta box5736Win5

VANTA (USA) (5) is the pick: model 51% against a 76% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -25.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

LESS PLEASE (USA) (7) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, RIVER IN PARADISE (GB) (6) carries +9.1 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5VANTA (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · JEFF MULLINS · draw 5 · pool 76% · market #1-25.0#1
  2. 7LESS PLEASE (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · EDWARD R. FREEMAN · draw 7 · pool — · market #3+11.7#2
  3. 3BIG BLAST (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · TIM YAKTEEN · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+10.2#3
  4. 6RIVER IN PARADISE (GB)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · LEONARD POWELL · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+9.1#4
  5. 2DASH (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+8.7#5
  6. 4BLOCKADE (USA)ADRIAN ESCOBEDO · RYAN HANSON · draw 4 · pool — · market #7+6.7#6
  7. 1DEE SNOOK (IRE)KAZUSHI KIMURA · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 1 · pool 24% · market #2-21.4#7

Race 7 · Santa Anita Park · 9 runners

Thin form
6f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 4 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
5The pickLUCILLE B (USA)pool 25% · model 29.5% · UMBERTO RISPOLI
6Next bestVINO VINO VINO (USA)pool 25% · model 27.8% · EMISAEL JARAMILLO
8At a priceWEHO (USA)pool 0% · model 8.0% · JOEL ROSARIO
Exacta box562Trifecta box5628Win5

LUCILLE B (USA) (5) is the pick: model 30% against a 25% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +4.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

VINO VINO VINO (USA) (6) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, WEHO (USA) (8) carries +8.0 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5LUCILLE B (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 5 · pool 25% · market #1+4.8#1
  2. 6VINO VINO VINO (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 6 · pool 25% · market #2+3.0#2
  3. 2MISS ATHENS (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · BOB BAFFERT · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+8.8#3
  4. 8WEHO (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 8 · pool — · market #7+8.0#4
  5. 7CONFETTI RAIN (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+7.5#5
  6. 3WELL VERSED (USA)MIKE E. SMITH · RICHARD E. MANDELLA · draw 3 · pool — · market #9+7.4#6
  7. 9PROSPECT OF LOVE (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · BOB BAFFERT · draw 9 · pool 17% · market #3-12.0#7
  8. 4MO CHUISLE (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 4 · pool 17% · market #4-13.6#8
  9. 1AMERICAN SPIRIT (USA)JULIEN R. LEPAROUX · NEIL D. DRYSDALE · draw 1 · pool 17% · market #5-13.9#9

Race 8 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
7The pickHANNAH BUCKLE (IRE)pool 0% · model 15.1% · ARMANDO AYUSO
5Next bestDELIGHTFUL LAURA (USA)pool 0% · model 13.8% · JUAN J. HERNANDEZ
4At a priceUPCHARGE (USA)pool 0% · model 12.9% · UMBERTO RISPOLI
Exacta box751Trifecta box7514Win7

HANNAH BUCKLE (IRE) (7) is the pick: model 15% against a 0% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge +15.1 points.

The pool makes FIBONACCIS RIDE (USA) (1) favourite at 50%; the model rates it 13%, so we overturn the favourite.

DELIGHTFUL LAURA (USA) (5) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, UPCHARGE (USA) (4) carries +12.9 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7HANNAH BUCKLE (IRE)ARMANDO AYUSO · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 7 · pool — · market #3+15.1#1
  2. 5DELIGHTFUL LAURA (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · PETER EURTON · draw 5 · pool — · market #4+13.8#2
  3. 1FIBONACCIS RIDE (USA)VICTOR ESPINOZA · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 1 · pool 50% · market #1-37.0#3
  4. 4UPCHARGE (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+12.9#4
  5. 2LADY RIDER (USA)TYLER BAZE · VLADIMIR CERIN · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+12.5#5
  6. 6YOGA MASTER (GB)JOEL ROSARIO · LEONARD POWELL · draw 6 · pool 50% · market #2-37.5#6
  7. 3LUBIE'S MUSIC (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · RICHARD E. MANDELLA · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+10.4#7
  8. 8MISS MEAGHER (IRE)EPIFANIO GARCIA · D. WAYNE BAKER · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+9.7#8

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Keeneland (1.14 runs/horse) · Belmont Park (1.01 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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