Race 1 · Delaware Parkpool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 8CLASSIC BALLAD (USA)+4.940% · 35%
  2. 4ALWAYS FORWARD (USA)-8.218% · 26%
  3. 3ADE (USA)-3.014% · 17%
  4. 1ARIANA VALENTINA (USA)+1.611% · 9%
  5. 5ALWAYS ANGELS (USA)+1.26% · 5%
  6. 7KEEP IT SAFE (USA)+1.15% · 4%
  7. 2TORTUGA ISLAND (USA)+1.54% · 3%
CLASSIC BALLAD (USA) is the pick: model 40% against a 35% pool share · verdict ↓

See more in every US race

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

17 races today · 6 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Thu 1 Oct 2026 · 2 tracks9 usable of 17 races · model overturns the favourite in 4Written Thu 01 Oct 2026, 08:57 ET · permalink

5 of 17 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Thu 1 Oct 2026

17 races across Horseshoe Indianapolis, Delaware Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 6 runners

Thin form
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 6 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
1The pickLIAMS FANCY (USA)pool 49% · model 33.6% · WALTER A. RODRIGUEZ
3Next bestSPRING LOADED (USA)pool 17% · model 24.0% · EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL
6At a priceSAYET (USA)pool 8% · model 14.3% · AXEL CONCEPCION
Exacta box134Trifecta box1346Win1

LIAMS FANCY (USA) (1) is the pick: model 34% against a 49% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -14.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SPRING LOADED (USA) (3) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, SAYET (USA) (6) carries +6.4 points of edge from a 8% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1LIAMS FANCY (USA)WALTER A. RODRIGUEZ · LARRY RIVELLI · draw 1 · pool 49% · market #1-14.9#1
  2. 3SPRING LOADED (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 3 · pool 17% · market #3+7.2#2
  3. 4C V ATHENA (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · KENIA HERNANDEZ · draw 4 · pool 21% · market #2-3.4#3
  4. 6SAYET (USA)AXEL CONCEPCION · WILLIAM WALDEN · draw 6 · pool 8% · market #4+6.4#4
  5. 5STELLA'S MISCHIEF (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 5 · pool 5% · market #5+3.5#5
  6. 2FIZZYPOPBERRYTWIST (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA, JR. · PAUL MCENTEE · draw 2 · pool 1% · market #6+1.3#6

Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
2The pickVARANA (USA)pool 34% · model 25.8% · DANILO GRISALES RAVE
4Next bestFOXY MADEMOISELLE (USA)pool 19% · model 19.8% · SANTO SANJUR
7At a priceDIAMOND TIARA (USA)pool 4% · model 7.4% · MIGUEL FERNANDEZ
Exacta box248Trifecta box2487Win2

VARANA (USA) (2) is the pick: model 26% against a 34% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge -7.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

FOXY MADEMOISELLE (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, DIAMOND TIARA (USA) (7) carries +3.4 points of edge from a 4% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2VARANA (USA)DANILO GRISALES RAVE · WAYNE M. CATALANO · draw 2 · pool 34% · market #1-7.9#1
  2. 4FOXY MADEMOISELLE (USA)SANTO SANJUR · MARK J. CRISTEL · draw 4 · pool 19% · market #3+1.0#2
  3. 8HIGH DOLLAR DOLLY (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 8 · pool 25% · market #2-7.2#3
  4. 6C V HOLLY (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · AGUSTIN GONZALEZ, JR. · draw 6 · pool 8% · market #4+0.6#4
  5. 7DIAMOND TIARA (USA)MIGUEL FERNANDEZ · BRIAN WILLIAMSON · draw 7 · pool 4% · market #5+3.4#5
  6. 3SUPER PACHI (USA)HUMBERTO HALDAR · ISAIAS AYALA · draw 3 · pool 4% · market #6+2.3#6
  7. 1LE BIEN LE MAL (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · CHAZ RECHY · draw 1 · pool 3% · market #7+3.1#7
  8. 5SAINT LAURENT (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 5 · pool 2% · market #8+2.4#8
  9. 9AUTHENTIC CHARM (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · IAN R. WILKES · draw 9 · pool 2% · market #9+2.3#9

Race 3 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
8½f Dirt · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6PALM TREE (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 6 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3MAGNUS GOLD (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 9LAY DOWN THE LAW (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · PETER EURTON · draw 9 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5START MO UP (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · JOE LEJZEROWICZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 2AGUILA NEGRA (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · CHRIS BANKS · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 7EXPECT THE BEST (USA)RAFAEL BEJARANO · RON MOQUETT · draw 7 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 1EXPLOSIVELY (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8SPIRIT OF ROYAL (USA)ADAM BESCHIZZA · S. JADE CUNNINGHAM · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 4VACCINATOR (USA)MICAH MEEKS · MICHAEL S. HAYES · draw 4 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 4 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 11 runners

NO POOL YET
7½f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 11 of 11 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7PATTY VAN TWINKLE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 7 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 6ANNIE EXPRESS (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · CHAZ RECHY · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 11BEACH DANCER (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 11 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2RYE SMILE (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · JOSE ORANTES · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 4ST BERNADETTE (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · REY HERNANDEZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 9RANCH LIFE (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · NICHOLAS VACCAREZZA · draw 9 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 10I MADE IT (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 10 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8SHESMYHUCKLEBERRY (USA)ALEX ACHARD · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 1COLLECTED BOND (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 1 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 3VORTEX EXPRESS (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · RON D. HERRELL · draw 3 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 5CAUMSETT (USA)MICAH MEEKS · JOSE PAYE · draw 5 · pool — · market #11—#11

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 9PISTOLE (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 9 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4DELTA TAU CHI (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6STORM THE STREETS (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 8SOCO KID (USA)TRAVIS WALES · JAMES M. WATKINS · draw 8 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 7TEXAS FREE (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 3VERSED (USA)ALBIN JIMENEZ · CLAUDE L. BROWNFIELD III · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 1MISSED THE TURN (USA)VICTOR LEBRON · GENEVIEVE LONDONO · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 2MISTER T (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · JUSTIN BAILEY · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 5UNBRIDLED SLOPE (USA)HUMBERTO HALDAR · DEVARUS DOUGLASS · draw 5 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 16 runners

Thin form
8f Turf · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 10 of 16 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
8The pickJACKIE'S PLAYER (USA)pool 0% · model 7.9% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
5Next bestGOLDEN LATTE (USA)pool 0% · model 7.5% · MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR.
14At a priceMON MOMENT (USA)pool 0% · model 6.6% · MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR.
Exacta box853Trifecta box85314Win8

JACKIE'S PLAYER (USA) (8) is the pick: model 8% against a 0% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +7.9 points.

The pool makes TOOKENETTE (USA) (16) favourite at 1%; the model rates it 6%, so we overturn the favourite.

GOLDEN LATTE (USA) (5) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, MON MOMENT (USA) (14) carries +6.6 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 8JACKIE'S PLAYER (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · BRAD H. COX · draw 8 · pool — · market #2+7.9#1
  2. 5GOLDEN LATTE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · BRAD H. COX · draw 5 · pool — · market #3+7.5#2
  3. 3HAVE HOPE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOE SHARP · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+7.4#3
  4. 14MON MOMENT (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · RODOLPHE BRISSET · draw 14 · pool — · market #5+6.6#4
  5. 13LUCERRA (USA)ALEX ACHARD · RILEY MOTT · draw 13 · pool — · market #6+6.4#5
  6. 2LUMINISTIC (USA)ALEX ACHARD · RILEY MOTT · draw 2 · pool — · market #7+6.4#6
  7. 16TOOKENETTE (USA)ALEX ACHARD · GERARDO RODRIGUEZ · draw 16 · pool 1% · market #1-93.7#7
  8. 11LATE NIGHT DATE (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · BRENDAN P. WALSH · draw 11 · pool — · market #8+6.3#8
  9. 15V FORMATION (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · D. WHITWORTH BECKMAN · draw 15 · pool — · market #9+6.2#9
  10. 10AMOARAY (USA)SUMMER PAULY · BRIAN KNIPPENBERG · draw 10 · pool — · market #10+6.1#10
  11. 1CANDY NOVEL (USA)ADAM BESCHIZZA · THOMAS MOLLOY · draw 1 · pool — · market #11+6.0#11
  12. 9FIRST LADYBUG (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · ROGELIO LABRA · draw 9 · pool — · market #12+6.0#12
  13. 7JUST A SONG (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · CHRIS A. HARTMAN · draw 7 · pool — · market #13+5.8#13
  14. 4GRACE ALONE (USA)DANNY SHEEHY · JOHN ENNIS · draw 4 · pool — · market #14+5.5#14
  15. 6SEISMIC GIRL (USA)YEDSIT HAZLEWOOD · KELSEY DANNER · draw 6 · pool — · market #15+4.8#15
  16. 12NEW MADRID (USA)IRVING MONCADA · THOMAS DRURY, JR. · draw 12 · pool — · market #16+4.7#16

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 12 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 11 of 12 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
1The pickSOCORRO'S PRAYER (USA)pool 50% · model 35.7% · AMIR MENDOZA
11Next bestSILVER STERLING (USA)pool 14% · model 14.6% · JOSHUA MORALES
6At a priceCONFERENCE CALLING (USA)pool 4% · model 6.8% · EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL
Exacta box11110Trifecta box111106Win1

SOCORRO'S PRAYER (USA) (1) is the pick: model 36% against a 50% pool share, 8 runs of US form on file, edge -14.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SILVER STERLING (USA) (11) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, CONFERENCE CALLING (USA) (6) carries +2.8 points of edge from a 4% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1SOCORRO'S PRAYER (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 1 · pool 50% · market #1-14.3#1
  2. 11SILVER STERLING (USA)JOSHUA MORALES · ANTHONY F. CUNNINGHAM · draw 11 · pool 14% · market #2+0.6#2
  3. 10BOZAANO (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 10 · pool 8% · market #3+0.3#3
  4. 6CONFERENCE CALLING (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 6 · pool 4% · market #7+2.8#4
  5. 7PENITENT (USA)ALEX ACHARD · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 7 · pool 7% · market #4-0.3#5
  6. 2INDY LAKE (USA)MICAH MEEKS · MIGUEL ANGEL SILVA · draw 2 · pool 5% · market #5+1.4#6
  7. 5AIRDROP (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · AMARA KRANZ · draw 5 · pool 5% · market #6+0.2#7
  8. 9SAVE MY TOWN (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · GENARO GARCIA · draw 9 · pool 2% · market #8+2.6#8
  9. 12DADDYS DREAM (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · BRIAN WALTZ · draw 12 · pool 2% · market #9+2.1#9
  10. 4RANK RANDY (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 4 · pool 1% · market #10+1.6#10
  11. 3EINSTEIN'S GHOST (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · JOHN HARAN · draw 3 · pool 1% · market #11+1.5#11
  12. 8FOREVER HOPE (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 8 · pool 1% · market #12+1.5#12

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

Usable
8½f Turf · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
9The pickQUAINT (USA)pool 17% · model 23.3% · AMIR MENDOZA
2Next bestPARKER (USA)pool 18% · model 16.3% · ALEXANDER CRISPIN
Exacta box927Trifecta box927Win9

QUAINT (USA) (9) is the pick: model 23% against a 17% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge +6.5 points.

The pool makes PARKER (USA) (2) favourite at 18%; the model rates it 16%, so we overturn the favourite.

PARKER (USA) (2) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 9QUAINT (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 9 · pool 17% · market #2+6.5#1
  2. 2PARKER (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · AGUSTIN GONZALEZ, JR. · draw 2 · pool 18% · market #1-1.6#2
  3. 7OUR JALAPENO (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · ROBERT E. DOBBS, JR. · draw 7 · pool 15% · market #3+0.7#3
  4. 5ROCK CITY KID (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · SHANNON MCGOVERN · draw 5 · pool 13% · market #5+1.7#4
  5. 1TAINTED JUSTICE (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 1 · pool 9% · market #6-0.3#5
  6. 8DEWEY OXBURGER (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 8 · pool 14% · market #4-5.5#6
  7. 4THE KING STINGER (USA)IRVING MONCADA · RENE CAZARES, JR. · draw 4 · pool 7% · market #7-0.7#7
  8. 6TURBEAU MAN (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 6 · pool 6% · market #8-0.2#8
  9. 3MYSTERY IMPACT (USA)MICAH MEEKS · DAWN A. FONTENOT · draw 3 · pool 2% · market #9-0.7#9

Race 1 · Delaware Park · 8 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
8The pickCLASSIC BALLAD (USA)pool 35% · model 39.9% · PACO LOPEZ
4Next bestALWAYS FORWARD (USA)pool 26% · model 17.8% · JORGE F. HERNANDEZ
Exacta box843Trifecta box843Win8

CLASSIC BALLAD (USA) (8) is the pick: model 40% against a 35% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge +4.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

ALWAYS FORWARD (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 8CLASSIC BALLAD (USA)PACO LOPEZ · MICHAEL V. SIMONE · draw 8 · pool 35% · market #1+4.9#1
  2. 4ALWAYS FORWARD (USA)JORGE F. HERNANDEZ · JOSE CORRALES · draw 4 · pool 26% · market #2-8.2#2
  3. 3ADE (USA)RONALDO RODRIGUEZ · MARIO ROBERTO LOPEZ · draw 3 · pool 17% · market #3-3.0#3
  4. 1ARIANA VALENTINA (USA)MARVIN FERNANDEZ · JOHNNY COLLINS · draw 1 · pool 9% · market #4+1.6#4
  5. 5ALWAYS ANGELS (USA)JATNIEL RAMOS · WAYNE POTTS · draw 5 · pool 5% · market #5+1.2#5
  6. 7KEEP IT SAFE (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · JOSE A. RAMIREZ · draw 7 · pool 4% · market #6+1.1#6
  7. 2TORTUGA ISLAND (USA)PAUL A. LUNA · PEDRO NAZARIO · draw 2 · pool 3% · market #7+1.5#7
  8. 6SKIP THRU DA FIRE (USA)RAUL E. MENA · JOSE CORRALES · draw 6 · pool 1% · market #8+0.9#8

Race 2 · Delaware Park · 8 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
6The pickNANO MAN (USA)pool 24% · model 23.9% · JAIME RODRIGUEZ
1Next bestTHIS RUN'S FOR YOU (USA)pool 30% · model 21.9% · JATNIEL RAMOS
5At a priceSUTHERLAND (USA)pool 7% · model 10.1% · JULIO A. HERNANDEZ
Exacta box617Trifecta box6175Win6

NANO MAN (USA) (6) is the pick: model 24% against a 24% pool share, 11 runs of US form on file, edge -0.1 points.

The pool makes THIS RUN'S FOR YOU (USA) (1) favourite at 30%; the model rates it 22%, so we overturn the favourite.

THIS RUN'S FOR YOU (USA) (1) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, SUTHERLAND (USA) (5) carries +3.1 points of edge from a 7% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6NANO MAN (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · MICHAEL V. SIMONE · draw 6 · pool 24% · market #2-0.1#1
  2. 1THIS RUN'S FOR YOU (USA)JATNIEL RAMOS · JOSUE ARCE · draw 1 · pool 30% · market #1-8.1#2
  3. 7CURLINS CRUZIN (USA)JOSE A. BATISTA · VICTOR CARRASCO, JR. · draw 7 · pool 22% · market #3-0.2#3
  4. 5SUTHERLAND (USA)JULIO A. HERNANDEZ · MCLEAN ROBERTSON · draw 5 · pool 7% · market #4+3.1#4
  5. 4MOGALU (USA)MARVIN FERNANDEZ · JOSE S. RODRIGUEZ · draw 4 · pool 5% · market #6+2.1#5
  6. 8PROM KNIGHT (USA)ANGEL CRUZ · CESAR NAMBO · draw 8 · pool 6% · market #5+0.8#6
  7. 3UNIWINNER (USA)RONALDO RODRIGUEZ · CESAR NAMBO · draw 3 · pool 5% · market #7+1.4#7
  8. 2FOREST ACCLAMATION (USA)TESHAWN HAZELWOOD · JOHNATHON FERON · draw 2 · pool 1% · market #8+0.9#8

Race 3 · Delaware Park · 9 runners

Usable
8¼f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
7The pickLET'S HAVE A PARTY (USA)pool 50% · model 32.3% · JATNIEL RAMOS
5Next bestBOURBON STATE (USA)pool 19% · model 15.6% · RONALDO RODRIGUEZ
4At a priceCONFABULATION (USA)pool 8% · model 11.8% · PACO LOPEZ
Exacta box758Trifecta box7584Win7

LET'S HAVE A PARTY (USA) (7) is the pick: model 32% against a 50% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge -17.2 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

BOURBON STATE (USA) (5) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, CONFABULATION (USA) (4) carries +3.9 points of edge from a 8% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7LET'S HAVE A PARTY (USA)JATNIEL RAMOS · NESVIL HERNAN BAILON · draw 7 · pool 50% · market #1-17.2#1
  2. 5BOURBON STATE (USA)RONALDO RODRIGUEZ · ALEJANDRO OLAIS MENDIETA · draw 5 · pool 19% · market #2-3.2#2
  3. 8GAMETIME GLADIATOR (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · MICHAEL V. SIMONE · draw 8 · pool 10% · market #3+4.7#3
  4. 4CONFABULATION (USA)PACO LOPEZ · WAYNE POTTS · draw 4 · pool 8% · market #4+3.9#4
  5. 9WHITING FIELD (USA)MARVIN FERNANDEZ · ENRIQUE HERNANDEZ · draw 9 · pool 4% · market #5+3.8#5
  6. 1PATTON'S TIZZY (USA)PAUL A. LUNA · JUAN BACALLAO VEGA · draw 1 · pool 4% · market #6+1.9#6
  7. 3HOME INVASION (USA)CAROL CEDENO · CARLOS M. SEPULVEDA · draw 3 · pool 4% · market #7+1.7#7
  8. 2BRODERICK (USA)AJHARI WILLIAMS · DON L. BRYANT · draw 2 · pool 1% · market #8+2.6#8
  9. 6FREEDOM STANCE (USA)WESLEY HO · DANIEL VELAZQUEZ · draw 6 · pool 1% · market #9+1.8#9

Race 4 · Delaware Park · 13 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 13 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 10UNCOMMON (USA)JOSEPH ROCCO, JR. · RICHARD J. HENDRIKS · draw 10 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 13QUEEN KHALEESI (USA)JOSE A. BATISTA · VICTOR CARRASCO, JR. · draw 13 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 3TIZ AWESOME (USA)RAMON F. MOYA · RORY K. HUSTON · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2LADY OF TROY (USA)JULIO A. HERNANDEZ · MICHAEL DINI · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 12SHESA MISCHIEFLADY (USA)VINCENT CHEMINAUD · MARIA BOWERSOCK · draw 12 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 9DANCING DEANNA (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · ALISA BROOKE SARSON · draw 9 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 4CHICOCO (USA)CARLOS EDUARDO LOPEZ · MARK SHUMAN · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8NECK OF CAIRO (USA)JOSE ANTONIO GOMEZ · TERESA M. POMPAY · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 1BROAD RUN (USA)JOSE R. BETANCOURT · JEREMY J. GILLAM · draw 1 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 6GOLDEN ELLIE (USA)MADELINE ROWLAND · MICHAEL E. GORHAM · draw 6 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 7DAWS DOMINION (USA)CHARLIE MARQUEZ · ALISA BROOKE SARSON · draw 7 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 11NOVA'S TIME (USA)AJHARI WILLIAMS · BEN RAMOS · draw 11 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 5KEEP HER HAPPY (USA)RAUL E. MENA · MICHAEL E. GORHAM · draw 5 · pool — · market #13—#13

Race 5 · Delaware Park · 13 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 13 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5ALL I DO (USA)PACO LOPEZ · MICHAEL V. SIMONE · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 8GOLD LADY (USA)JOSE A. BATISTA · MAXINE CORREA · draw 8 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 7PRIVATE SPEAKER (USA)JULIO A. HERNANDEZ · MCLEAN ROBERTSON · draw 7 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 6CLEAN WINNER (USA)ELISEO RUIZ · SILVINO RAMIREZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 11STYLISH GEM (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · JEFFREY A. POOLE · draw 11 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 4CASSIE'S VAULT (USA)JORGE A. VARGAS, JR. · CHUCK SPINA · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 3ELSIE'S SMILE (USA)ABNER ADORNO · MONICA MCGOEY · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 2NO DENYING (USA)CHARLIE MARQUEZ · ALBERTO PLAZA · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 12SWEET SUMMER LOVE (USA)MARVIN FERNANDEZ · CESAR NAMBO · draw 12 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 10LADY PATRICK'S (USA)TESHAWN HAZELWOOD · DANIEL VELAZQUEZ · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 13SWEET AND FEISTY (USA)ANGEL CRUZ · CESAR NAMBO · draw 13 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 9CRIMSON RED (USA)JATNIEL RAMOS · WAYNE POTTS · draw 9 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 1LILLIPUT (USA)SHIRLEY ESTHER YANCAPALLO GOMOCIO · ROQUE R. ROMERO · draw 1 · pool — · market #13—#13

Race 6 · Delaware Park · 13 runners

Usable
8¼f Turf · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 11 of 13 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
13The pickIRISH GENT (IRE)pool 0% · model 10.2% · EDWIN VILLALOBOS
6Next bestDAW SAMAA (USA)pool 0% · model 9.2% · ELIZABETH SCULLY
7At a priceANDOLIN (USA)pool 0% · model 7.9% · CHELSEA SECOR
Exacta box1363Trifecta box13637Win13

IRISH GENT (IRE) (13) is the pick: model 10% against a 0% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge +10.2 points.

The pool makes ONE BID (USA) (11) favourite at 1%; the model rates it 7%, so we overturn the favourite.

DAW SAMAA (USA) (6) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, ANDOLIN (USA) (7) carries +7.9 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 13IRISH GENT (IRE)EDWIN VILLALOBOS · JOSE A. GALLEGOS · draw 13 · pool — · market #2+10.2#1
  2. 6DAW SAMAA (USA)ELIZABETH SCULLY · JAMIE NESS · draw 6 · pool — · market #3+9.2#2
  3. 3LIBERTY BAY (USA)CARLY KERN · SUZANNE STETTINIUS · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+8.1#3
  4. 7ANDOLIN (USA)CHELSEA SECOR · LYNN A. ASHBY · draw 7 · pool — · market #5+7.9#4
  5. 9IRISH INDYGO (USA)SERGIO A. TURRIETA · BENJAMIN W. PERKINS, JR. · draw 9 · pool — · market #6+7.8#5
  6. 1BAD BOY BUTCH (USA)SOPHIE O'BRIEN · GREGORY D. SACCO · draw 1 · pool — · market #7+7.7#6
  7. 11ONE BID (USA)CIARA WALSH · TIMOTHY A. HILLS · draw 11 · pool 1% · market #1-92.5#7
  8. 8ROYAL RENEGADE (USA)SARAH CUNDITH · ELIZABETH M. MERRYMAN · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+7.3#8
  9. 4EXCELLION (USA)ZIO JOHNSON · JUAN CARLOS AVILA · draw 4 · pool — · market #9+7.2#9
  10. 2HAY GRACE BRENNAN (USA)CHLOE HANNUM · A. FERRIS ALLEN III · draw 2 · pool — · market #10+7.1#10
  11. 10NILAMBAR (USA)VIRGINIA KORRELL · BRUCE M. KRAVETS · draw 10 · pool — · market #11+6.9#11
  12. 12FILLED WITH DESIRE (USA)JULIA GROW · BOBBI ANNE HAWTHORNE · draw 12 · pool — · market #12+6.7#12
  13. 5BACKSIDE (USA)EDWARD SOLIS · JACINTO SOLIS · draw 5 · pool — · market #13+6.4#13

Race 7 · Delaware Park · 9 runners

Blind
5½f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 2 of 9 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 1JESSE MARIE (USA)KEVIN GOMEZ · HORACE W. ARMSTRONG · draw 1 · pool 70% · market #1—#1
  2. 5MAGICAL BEGINNING (USA)JOSE A. BATISTA · MIGUEL CLEMENT · draw 5 · pool 6% · market #3—#2
  3. 4NEVER ODD OR EVEN (USA)JORGE A. VARGAS, JR. · LINDSAY SCHULTZ · draw 4 · pool 7% · market #2—#3
  4. 9FEROZA (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · H. GRAHAM MOTION · draw 9 · pool 5% · market #4—#4
  5. 6MONEY QUEEN (USA)ABNER ADORNO · J. TYLER SERVIS · draw 6 · pool 4% · market #5—#5
  6. 2RAZIN (USA)JOSE R. BETANCOURT · JOHNNY COLLINS · draw 2 · pool 3% · market #6—#6
  7. 3SCARLET ROGUE (USA)LEONARDO CORUJO · ORLANDO ROSE · draw 3 · pool 3% · market #7—#7
  8. 7TIZ THE LOVE (USA)PACO LOPEZ · PHILLIP CAPUANO · draw 7 · pool 1% · market #8—#8
  9. 8SHOW'S LAST GIFT (USA)TESHAWN HAZELWOOD · DANIEL VELAZQUEZ · draw 8 · pool 1% · market #9—#9

Race 8 · Delaware Park · 7 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 6 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
2The pickSHE'S A DANCER (USA)pool 75% · model 58.0% · PACO LOPEZ
3Next bestTIZ CANDY (USA)pool 8% · model 10.5% · AJHARI WILLIAMS
1At a priceWHERE ARE YOU (USA)pool 5% · model 9.5% · VINCENT CHEMINAUD
Exacta box235Trifecta box2351Win2

SHE'S A DANCER (USA) (2) is the pick: model 58% against a 75% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge -17.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

TIZ CANDY (USA) (3) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, WHERE ARE YOU (USA) (1) carries +4.5 points of edge from a 5% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2SHE'S A DANCER (USA)PACO LOPEZ · ANTHONY PECORARO · draw 2 · pool 75% · market #1-17.0#1
  2. 3TIZ CANDY (USA)AJHARI WILLIAMS · WAYNE POTTS · draw 3 · pool 8% · market #2+2.5#2
  3. 5WE GOIN (USA)JOSE A. BATISTA · ANTHONY W. DUTROW · draw 5 · pool 6% · market #3+4.0#3
  4. 1WHERE ARE YOU (USA)VINCENT CHEMINAUD · GREG COMPTON · draw 1 · pool 5% · market #4+4.5#4
  5. 4KWAN (USA)JULIO A. HERNANDEZ · MICHAEL V. SIMONE · draw 4 · pool 2% · market #5+2.7#5
  6. 6IT'S THE LAW BABY (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · JESUS RODRIGUEZ · draw 6 · pool 2% · market #6+1.8#6
  7. 7GREAT DESTINY (USA)JATNIEL RAMOS · NESVIL HERNAN BAILON · draw 7 · pool 2% · market #7+1.6#7

Race 9 · Delaware Park · 8 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
7The pickSWEET WINNER (USA)pool 28% · model 28.5% · PACO LOPEZ
8Next bestSLAY SADIE SLAY (USA)pool 23% · model 22.3% · JOSE A. BATISTA
4At a priceMETODO (USA)pool 5% · model 7.9% · JULIO A. HERNANDEZ
Exacta box783Trifecta box7834Win7

SWEET WINNER (USA) (7) is the pick: model 28% against a 28% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge +0.2 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SLAY SADIE SLAY (USA) (8) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, METODO (USA) (4) carries +2.8 points of edge from a 5% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7SWEET WINNER (USA)PACO LOPEZ · DANIEL VELAZQUEZ · draw 7 · pool 28% · market #1+0.2#1
  2. 8SLAY SADIE SLAY (USA)JOSE A. BATISTA · RICHARD E. DUTROW, JR. · draw 8 · pool 23% · market #3-0.9#2
  3. 3UNCLE ZEB (USA)PAUL A. LUNA · JUAN BACALLAO VEGA · draw 3 · pool 25% · market #2-6.9#3
  4. 1MYSTICAL MERLIN (USA)CHARLIE MARQUEZ · CHUCK SPINA · draw 1 · pool 10% · market #4-0.2#4
  5. 4METODO (USA)JULIO A. HERNANDEZ · ANDREW L. SIMOFF · draw 4 · pool 5% · market #6+2.8#5
  6. 6SPURIOUS (USA)RONALDO RODRIGUEZ · MARIO ROBERTO LOPEZ · draw 6 · pool 6% · market #5+1.7#6
  7. 5ZAINO (USA)SARA HESS · ALEJANDRO OLAIS MENDIETA · draw 5 · pool 1% · market #7+1.8#7
  8. 2SAINT CLOUD (USA)TESHAWN HAZELWOOD · DANIEL VELAZQUEZ · draw 2 · pool 1% · market #8+1.5#8

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Belmont Park (1.00 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

Same engine, three racing worlds:TJK Tahmin · TurkeySha Tin More · Hong KongUSA Pick Day · USA