Race 2 · Gulfstream Parkpool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 1SONNY'S GOLDENLADY (USA) (6)+0.00% · 0%
  2. 2CUDDLE THE KITTEN (USA) (2)+0.00% · 0%
  3. 3LA CYBER (USA) (3)+0.00% · 0%
  4. 4PRETTY GEISHA (USA) (1)+0.00% · 0%
  5. 5AWESOMELY WILD (USA) (4)+0.00% · 0%
  6. 6QUEEN KWAINA (USA) (5)+0.00% · 0%
AUTHENTIC ANGEL (USA) (Koşmaz) is the pick: model 6% against a 3% pool share · verdict ↓

Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park picks — Sun 1 Nov 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →

13 races today · 38 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 2 tracks3 usable of 13 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Sun 01 Nov 2026, 19:15 ET · permalink

8 of 13 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Sun 1 Nov 2026

13 races across Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Usable
Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
2The pickNOFFIES LATE NITE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 6.7% · JONATHAN SANTOS
4Next bestRIVER BLOSSOM (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 6.7% · JONATHAN OCASIO

NOFFIES LATE NITE (USA) (Koşmaz) (2) is the pick: model 7% against a 0% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge +6.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

RIVER BLOSSOM (USA) (Koşmaz) (4) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2NOFFIES LATE NITE (USA)JONATHAN SANTOS · FRANK RUSSO · draw 2 · pool — · market #1scr#6
  2. 4RIVER BLOSSOM (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · GARRETT W. ARSCOTT · draw 4 · pool — · market #2scr#7
  3. 1KNOWS EVERYTHING (USA) (2)EDGAR PEREZ · DALE L. ROMANS · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3ADSILA (USA) (5)JOSE E. MORELOS · DANIEL C. HURTAK · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 5GHOSTS LIL SECRET (USA) (3)DIEGO A. HERRERA · DEBRA DONALDSON · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6PAN PAN (USA) (4)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7HIT MUSIC (USA) (6)WESLEY HENRY · WESLEY HENRY, SR. · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 8GLACIA GLAZE (USA) (7)MARCOS MENESES · J. KENT SWEEZEY · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 9ROMELIA (USA) (1)SONNY LEON · KATHLEEN O'CONNELL · draw 9 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99

Race 2 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
7The pickAUTHENTIC ANGEL (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 3% · model 5.8% · CIPRIANO GIL
1Next bestSONNY'S GOLDENLADY (USA) (6)pool 0% · model 0.0% · JESUS M. RIOS

AUTHENTIC ANGEL (USA) (Koşmaz) (7) is the pick: model 6% against a 3% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge +2.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SONNY'S GOLDENLADY (USA) (6) (1) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7AUTHENTIC ANGEL (USA)CIPRIANO GIL · JOSE A. GALLEGOS · draw 7 · pool 3% · market #1scr#6
  2. 1SONNY'S GOLDENLADY (USA) (6)JESUS M. RIOS · EDUARDO NUNEZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2CUDDLE THE KITTEN (USA) (2)DIEGO A. HERRERA · FREDERICK B. LABO · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3LA CYBER (USA) (3)JOSE E. MORELOS · JOSE M. CASTRO · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4PRETTY GEISHA (USA) (1)FELIX VASQUEZ, JR. · GARRETT W. ARSCOTT · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5AWESOMELY WILD (USA) (4)EDGAR PEREZ · VAUGHAN HEARD · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 6QUEEN KWAINA (USA) (5)JONATHAN OCASIO · GARRETT W. ARSCOTT · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 3 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
MAIDEN SOptional claiming Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 3 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3GRANT ME PEACE (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · NICHOLAS PALMER · draw 3 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 2WAVES OF SUCCESS (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · MICHAEL J. TROMBETTA · draw 2 · pool — · market #2scr#4
  3. 6IOLANA (USA)MARCOS MENESES · NICHOLAS PALMER · draw 6 · pool — · market #3scr#6
  4. 1STARSHIP CONTENDER (USA) (2)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4SWEETGREEN (USA) (6)HERIBERTO FIGUEROA · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5SHEA'S A DEVIL (USA) (5)NIK JUAREZ · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7FIB (USA) (3)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8AUTHENTIC STAR (USA) (4)CIPRIANO GIL · KATHLEEN O'CONNELL · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 9SASS SASS (USA) (1)SONNY LEON · MARK E. CASSE · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 4 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 0 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5MUSTANG BETTY (USA)RAYMOND TORRES · WADE RUSSELL · draw 5 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 1WINNING CHARM (USA) (1)LEONEL REYES · RAMON MINGUET · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2I'M HOT (USA) (4)DIEGO A. HERRERA · TAREQ MOUBARAK · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3HIGH POTENTIAL (USA) (2)JONATHAN OCASIO · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4LEXI'S BREEZE (USA) (8)SONNY LEON · MICHAEL YATES · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6LA CHINITA (USA) (3)JOSE E. MORELOS · EDGAR A. COTO · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7SHEA A LIL PRAYER (USA) (6)NIK JUAREZ · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8NORTHERN CROWN (USA) (7)HERIBERTO FIGUEROA · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 9MIDNIGHT LAUGH (USA) (5)MARCOS MENESES · FAUSTO GUTIERREZ · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 5 · Gulfstream Park · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2SIEGE OF BOSTON (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · JAMES J. TONER · draw 2 · pool — · market #1scr#1
  2. 7QUIZLER (USA)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · BEAU J. CHAPMAN · draw 7 · pool — · market #2scr#3
  3. 5DISCREET DANCER (USA)RASHEED HUGHES · ANTONIO SANO · draw 5 · pool — · market #3scr#6
  4. 4TAPIT KISSIT WINIT (USA)SONNY LEON · MARK E. CASSE · draw 4 · pool — · market #4scr#8
  5. 1JAYHAWK (USA) (3)NIK JUAREZ · BEAU J. CHAPMAN · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 3I KNOW I KNOW (USA) (1)J.G. TORREALBA · PATRICK L. BIANCONE · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6TANK (USA) (2)LEONEL REYES · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8MALCOLM X (PER) (4)JONATHAN SANTOS · DANTE ZANELLI · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 6 · Gulfstream Park · 6 runners

NO POOL YET
7f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 6 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1CON COMPANIA (CHI)EDGAR PEREZ · PEDRO R. GARCIA · draw 1 · pool — · market #1scr#2
  2. 6TSHIEBWE (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · JOSE M. CASTRO · draw 6 · pool — · market #2scr#5
  3. 2SIMO (USA) (3)YOLBER TORRES · GEORGINA BAXTER · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3VERTRAUEN (USA) (1)DIEGO A. HERRERA · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4TROOPS (USA) (2)MARCOS MENESES · ELIZABETH L. DOBLES · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5DIME PAPI (USA) (4)JONATHAN SANTOS · PEDRO R. GARCIA · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99

Race 7 · Gulfstream Park · 13 runners

Thin form
MAIDEN SOptional claiming Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 1 of 13 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
13The pickLOVE AFICIONADO (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 5.8% · EDWIN GONZALEZ
3Next bestGREAT CHIEF (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 4.4% · UBARDO CASIQUE

LOVE AFICIONADO (USA) (Koşmaz) (13) is the pick: model 6% against a 0% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +5.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

GREAT CHIEF (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 13LOVE AFICIONADO (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · MICHAEL J. TROMBETTA · draw 13 · pool — · market #1scr#6
  2. 3GREAT CHIEF (USA)UBARDO CASIQUE · MONICA MCGOEY · draw 3 · pool — · market #2scr#9
  3. 1SOUPER HANDSOME (USA) (2)SONNY LEON · MARK E. CASSE · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 2UNLIMITED DRIP (USA) (10)MARCOS MENESES · J. KENT SWEEZEY · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4AUTHENTIC QUALITY (USA) (7)RASHEED HUGHES · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5STRIKE (USA) (4)DIEGO A. HERRERA · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 6MEL'S MANNER (USA) (9)JONATHAN OCASIO · GARY G. JACKSON · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 7SLEW VINBIZ (USA) (1)LEONEL REYES · KATHLEEN O'CONNELL · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 8STIR FLAY (USA) (11)JOSE E. MORELOS · GARY G. JACKSON · draw 8 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99
  10. 9CID CAMPEADOR (USA) (5)JESUS M. RIOS · ANTONIO SANO · draw 9 · pool — · market #10+0.0#99
  11. 10SCREENSHOT SWIFT (USA) (8)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 10 · pool — · market #11+0.0#99
  12. 11STAR OF LIAM (USA) (6)CIPRIANO GIL · AUBREY A. MARAGH · draw 11 · pool — · market #12+0.0#99
  13. 12MISCHIEF MEISTER (USA) (3)J.G. TORREALBA · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 12 · pool — · market #13+0.0#99

Race 3 · Santa Anita Park · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3CRYPTO RIDE (USA)KYLE FREY · SIMON HOBSON · draw 3 · pool — · market #1scr#7
  2. 1DOO WOP DON (USA) (4)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · JEFF MULLINS · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 9MUBTADAA (USA) (2)ARMANDO AYUSO · VLADIMIR CERIN · draw 9 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 8KEEP MOVIN' ON (USA) (5)JOEL ROSARIO · MARK GLATT · draw 8 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 7DEL MAR JERRY (USA) (7)MANUEL AMERICANO · STEVEN MIYADI · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 2CITY EXILE (GB) (8)TYLER BAZE · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 4OOBUBBAKAKAYO (USA) (3)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · GENARO VALLEJO · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 5BROTHER O' BRIEN (USA) (6)KAZUSHI KIMURA · TIM MCCANNA · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 6WHISKYGINANDBRANDY (USA) (1)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 6 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 4 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 8MY KAT (USA)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 8 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 2READY JET GO (USA)JOSE ELIAS RODRIGUEZ · ANGELA MARIA AQUINO · draw 2 · pool — · market #2scr#5
  3. 7BROOKYS GAL (USA)FRANCISCO MONROY · ISIDRO TAMAYO · draw 7 · pool — · market #3scr#6
  4. 3BESSIE COLEMAN (USA) (3)MANUEL AMERICANO · STEVEN MIYADI · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5RYAN'S GIRL (USA) (1)KAZUSHI KIMURA · GENARO VALLEJO · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 4SHOP TILL YOU DROP (USA) (2)ARMANDO AYUSO · RICHARD BALTAS · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6ELTONSINGSANOTHER (USA) (4)TYLER BAZE · EDWIN G. ALVAREZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 1SOMEDAY LADY (CAN) (5)EDGAR PAYERAS · CRAIG DOLLASE · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 5 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
6½f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 0 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 8DRAGON REIGN (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 8 · pool — · market #1scr#4
  2. 4PROSPECT OF LOVE (USA) (7)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · BOB BAFFERT · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 6I KNOW NOTHING (USA) (4)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 1MAGIC WORLD (USA) (6)KAZUSHI KIMURA · HECTOR O. PALMA · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 3VINO VINO VINO (USA) (2)KYLE FREY · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 2GRAMMY'S GAL (USA) (3)RICARDO GONZALEZ · MICK RUIS, SR. · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 5DOUBLE D LITE (USA) (5)MIKE E. SMITH · MIKE PUYPE · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 7BACK BURN (USA) (1)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · VAL BRINKERHOFF · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 6 · Santa Anita Park · 13 runners

NO POOL YET
6½f Turf · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 13 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 12GREY'S BOY (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · VLADIMIR CERIN · draw 12 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 7THE G M (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · MIKE PUYPE · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#3
  3. 2JIMMY WINKFIELD (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#4
  4. 13GOT'M COT'M (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · VAL BRINKERHOFF · draw 13 · pool — · market #4scr#6
  5. 4FRANK BULLITT (USA)TYLER BAZE · DEBBIE WINICK · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#8
  6. 3MILES FINCH (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · JEFF BONDE · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#10
  7. 8GOING NOWHERE (USA)WELFIN R. ORANTES · RYAN HANSON · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#11
  8. 1KERRY GOLD (USA)KYLE FREY · DANIEL AZCARATE · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#12
  9. 6SPEED OF ELON (USA)JOSE VALDIVIA, JR. · DANIEL DUNHAM · draw 6 · pool — · market #9—#13
  10. 10THIRD BEER (USA) (1)JOEL ROSARIO · TIM YAKTEEN · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 11OWL (USA) (3)KAZUSHI KIMURA · NEIL D. DRYSDALE · draw 11 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 5MOMENT OF VALOR (USA) (4)ARMANDO AYUSO · PETER EURTON · draw 5 · pool — · market #12—#99
  13. 9FEELING LUCKY (USA) (2)MANUEL AMERICANO · BRIAN J. KORINER · draw 9 · pool — · market #13—#99

Race 7 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo Thoroughbreds · 4 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
2The pickVAN GOGH STYLE (USA)pool 21% · model 17.6% · TYLER BAZE
3Next bestMAKER AND SONS (USA)pool 16% · model 15.2% · ARMANDO AGUILAR

VAN GOGH STYLE (USA) (2) is the pick: model 18% against a 21% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge -3.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MAKER AND SONS (USA) (3) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2VAN GOGH STYLE (USA)TYLER BAZE · SEAN MCCARTHY · draw 2 · pool 21% · market #1-3.4#2
  2. 3MAKER AND SONS (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · PAULA S. CAPESTRO · draw 3 · pool 16% · market #2-0.8#4
  3. 5BLAME IT ON JACK (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · PETER MILLER · draw 5 · pool 7% · market #3-0.1#5
  4. 4ITALIO (USA)CRISTOBAL HERRERA · VAL BRINKERHOFF · draw 4 · pool 2% · market #4-0.3#8
  5. 7KING'S RIDE (USA) (4)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · CRAIG ANTHONY LEWIS · draw 7 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6COURTSIDE ACTION (USA) (1)RICARDO GONZALEZ · ANDY MATHIS · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 8FIONELLO (USA) (2)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 8 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 1MARCOS PERFORMANCE (USA) (3)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · PAUL G. AGUIRRE · draw 1 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 8 · Santa Anita Park · 14 runners

Thin form
6½f Turf · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 8 of 14 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
3The pickSEAMLESS FACTOR (USA)pool 51% · model 32.7% · HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS
7Next bestROSA'S MIRACLE (USA)pool 21% · model 17.2% · JOEL ROSARIO
11At a priceDONT SHORT UR SELF (USA)pool 0% · model 5.5% · DRAYDEN VAN DYKE

SEAMLESS FACTOR (USA) (3) is the pick: model 33% against a 51% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge -18.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

ROSA'S MIRACLE (USA) (7) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

For something at a price, DONT SHORT UR SELF (USA) (11) carries +5.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3SEAMLESS FACTOR (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · CARLA GAINES · draw 3 · pool 51% · market #1-18.3#1
  2. 7ROSA'S MIRACLE (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 7 · pool 21% · market #2-3.8#2
  3. 6TAKE REVENGE (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · CRAIG ANTHONY LEWIS · draw 6 · pool 10% · market #3+0.9#3
  4. 11DONT SHORT UR SELF (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · MIKE PUYPE · draw 11 · pool — · market #11+5.5#4
  5. 13BIG BROADCAST (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · TIM YAKTEEN · draw 13 · pool — · market #12scr#5
  6. 4TIZ THE TRUTH (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · PETER MILLER · draw 4 · pool 3% · market #5+1.2#6
  7. 2SAUCED UP (USA)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · FELIX RONDAN · draw 2 · pool 6% · market #4-2.2#7
  8. 14EURYDICE (USA)ADRIAN ESCOBEDO · RYAN HANSON · draw 14 · pool — · market #13scr#8
  9. 12SHE'S MY STAR (USA)FRANCISCO ORDUNA-ROJAS · EDWIN G. ALVAREZ · draw 12 · pool — · market #14+3.7#9
  10. 8CARDWELL (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · LEONARD POWELL · draw 8 · pool 3% · market #6+0.5#10
  11. 1DIVINE KISMET (USA)VICTOR ESPINOZA · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 1 · pool 2% · market #7+1.4#11
  12. 5GRAZED IN A HAZE (USA)JOSE VALDIVIA, JR. · BRENDAN W. GALVIN · draw 5 · pool 2% · market #8+0.7#12
  13. 9HER STRUT (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 9 · pool 1% · market #9+0.7#13
  14. 10TIZ LIZ (USA)KYLE FREY · ALEXIS BARBA · draw 10 · pool 1% · market #10+0.5#14

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Belmont Park (1.27 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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