Race 5 · Gulfstream Parkpool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 1CLAIMED (USA)+15.151% · 36%
  2. 9NEW LIFE (USA)+8.58% · 0%
  3. 4TELL ME SOME LIES (USA)+8.28% · 0%
  4. 3MIAMI STYLE (USA)+7.47% · 0%
  5. 7FLUFFY (USA)+6.97% · 0%
  6. 6MORE APPLAUSE (USA)+6.67% · 0%
  7. 2EILEEN'S A WARRIOR (USA)-16.94% · 21%
CLAIMED (USA) is the pick: model 51% against a 12% pool share · verdict ↓

Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park picks — Fri 2 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

16 races today · 8 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Fri 2 Oct 2026 · 2 tracks12 usable of 16 races · model overturns the favourite in 3Written Fri 02 Oct 2026, 03:07 ET · permalink

Today · Fri 2 Oct 2026

16 races across Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Gulfstream Park · 8 runners

Thin form
8f Turf · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 7 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
4The pickCOLONEL DUKE (USA)pool 62% · model 48.5% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ
7Next bestMITZMAN (USA)pool 12% · model 16.3% · LEONEL REYES
3At a priceREDBAD (USA)pool 3% · model 5.2% · J.G. TORREALBA
Exacta box478Trifecta box4783Win4

COLONEL DUKE (USA) (4) is the pick: model 48% against a 62% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -12.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MITZMAN (USA) (7) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, REDBAD (USA) (3) carries +2.3 points of edge from a 3% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4COLONEL DUKE (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · MICHAEL YATES · draw 4 · pool 62% · market #1-12.9#1
  2. 7MITZMAN (USA)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 7 · pool 12% · market #2+4.4#2
  3. 8CID CAMPEADOR (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · ANTONIO SANO · draw 8 · pool 7% · market #3+1.6#3
  4. 6ETRUSCAN WARRIOR (USA)MARCOS MENESES · NICHOLAS PALMER · draw 6 · pool 5% · market #4+1.8#4
  5. 2GUNN ON THE RUN (USA)PEDRO PENA · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 2 · pool 4% · market #5+1.4#5
  6. 3REDBAD (USA)J.G. TORREALBA · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 3 · pool 3% · market #8+2.3#6
  7. 5FIGHT AND PRAY (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · ANTONIO SANO · draw 5 · pool 4% · market #6+1.0#7
  8. 1IT'S ON MY HONOR (USA)JONATHAN SANTOS · JAVIER E. MORZAN · draw 1 · pool 4% · market #7+0.5#8

Race 2 · Gulfstream Park · 6 runners

Usable
6½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
4The pickROLE PLAY (USA)pool 67% · model 51.5% · PEDRO PENA
1Next bestMISS MAGICAL (USA)pool 13% · model 15.2% · JONATHAN OCASIO
6At a priceR FIREBIRD (USA)pool 0% · model 10.4% · HERIBERTO FIGUEROA
Exacta box413Trifecta box4136Win4

ROLE PLAY (USA) (4) is the pick: model 51% against a 67% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge -15.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MISS MAGICAL (USA) (1) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, R FIREBIRD (USA) (6) carries +10.4 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4ROLE PLAY (USA)PEDRO PENA · BEAU J. CHAPMAN · draw 4 · pool 67% · market #1-15.5#1
  2. 1MISS MAGICAL (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · BOBBY S. DIBONA · draw 1 · pool 13% · market #2+2.2#2
  3. 3FRIDA (USA)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE M. CASTRO · draw 3 · pool 13% · market #3-1.0#3
  4. 6R FIREBIRD (USA)HERIBERTO FIGUEROA · STEVE BUDHOO · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+10.4#4
  5. 5WITH KINDNESS (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · SANDINO R. HERNANDEZ, JR. · draw 5 · pool 5% · market #4+3.4#5
  6. 2DADDY'S LOVE (USA)JONATHAN SANTOS · JAVIER E. MORZAN · draw 2 · pool 2% · market #5+0.6#6

Race 3 · Gulfstream Park · 8 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
2The pickSENTA SAYS (USA)pool 0% · model 16.1% · MICAH J. HUSBANDS
8Next bestCAMM'S GIRL (USA)pool 0% · model 14.2% · LEONEL REYES
6At a priceSHAMROCK QUEEN (USA)pool 0% · model 12.3% · DIEGO A. HERRERA
Exacta box287Trifecta box2876Win2

SENTA SAYS (USA) (2) is the pick: model 16% against a 0% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge +16.1 points.

The pool makes HIGHER SELF (USA) (5) favourite at 2%; the model rates it 11%, so we overturn the favourite.

CAMM'S GIRL (USA) (8) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, SHAMROCK QUEEN (USA) (6) carries +12.3 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2SENTA SAYS (USA)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 2 · pool — · market #2+16.1#1
  2. 8CAMM'S GIRL (USA)LEONEL REYES · MARIAM VARGAS · draw 8 · pool — · market #3+14.2#2
  3. 7STARSHIP DAYTONA (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · SANDINO R. HERNANDEZ, JR. · draw 7 · pool — · market #4+13.7#3
  4. 6SHAMROCK QUEEN (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · HENRY COLLAZO · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+12.3#4
  5. 3COUSIN PAMMIE (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · KATHRYN DAVEY · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+12.1#5
  6. 4DIAMOND'S HONOR (USA)PEDRO PENA · J. DAVID BRADDY · draw 4 · pool — · market #7+12.0#6
  7. 5HIGHER SELF (USA)RICHARD MAIRS · DILEY A. DAKIN · draw 5 · pool 2% · market #1-89.1#7
  8. 1MEMORY OF MY LIFE (USA)JONATHAN SANTOS · JAVIER E. MORZAN · draw 1 · pool — · market #8+8.7#8

Race 4 · Gulfstream Park · 6 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
3The pickPAPAS COOKIE (USA)pool 8% · model 18.3% · DIEGO A. HERRERA
6Next bestKIONA (USA)pool 0% · model 18.2% · CIPRIANO GIL
1At a priceJUST MAJESTIC (USA)pool 0% · model 17.1% · JONATHAN OCASIO
Exacta box365Trifecta box3651Win3

PAPAS COOKIE (USA) (3) is the pick: model 18% against a 8% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge -81.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

KIONA (USA) (6) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, JUST MAJESTIC (USA) (1) carries +17.1 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3PAPAS COOKIE (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · ROHAN G. CRICHTON · draw 3 · pool 8% · market #1-81.7#1
  2. 6KIONA (USA)CIPRIANO GIL · CARLOS NARVAEZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #2+18.2#2
  3. 5I'M CHILL (USA)PEDRO PENA · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 5 · pool — · market #3+17.3#3
  4. 1JUST MAJESTIC (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · JOEL SANTIAGO · draw 1 · pool — · market #4+17.1#4
  5. 4NOT ONE LESS (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · ANTONIO SANO · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+15.7#5
  6. 2D ORBIE'S GIRL (USA)SAMUEL CAMACHO, JR. · DOUGLAS JONES · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+13.4#6

Race 5 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
1The pickCLAIMED (USA)pool 12% · model 51.4% · MARCOS MENESES
9Next bestNEW LIFE (USA)pool 0% · model 8.5% · SAMY CAMACHO
3At a priceMIAMI STYLE (USA)pool 0% · model 7.4% · DIEGO A. HERRERA
Exacta box194Trifecta box1943Win1

CLAIMED (USA) (1) is the pick: model 51% against a 12% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +15.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

NEW LIFE (USA) (9) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, MIAMI STYLE (USA) (3) carries +7.4 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1CLAIMED (USA)MARCOS MENESES · DANIEL DAMEN · draw 1 · pool 12% · market #1+15.1#1
  2. 9NEW LIFE (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 9 · pool — · market #5+8.5#2
  3. 4TELL ME SOME LIES (USA)SONNY LEON · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+8.2#3
  4. 3MIAMI STYLE (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+7.4#4
  5. 7FLUFFY (USA)JOZBIN Z. SANTANA · ANGEL M. RODRIGUEZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+6.9#5
  6. 6MORE APPLAUSE (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · JOSEPH C. CATANESE III · draw 6 · pool — · market #9+6.6#6
  7. 2EILEEN'S A WARRIOR (USA)LEONEL REYES · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 2 · pool 7% · market #2-16.9#7
  8. 5NASHVILLE SLEW (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · ROGER LAURIN · draw 5 · pool 7% · market #3-17.7#8
  9. 8STARSHIP ELATION (USA)PEDRO PENA · KATHY P. MONGEON · draw 8 · pool 7% · market #4-18.0#9

Race 6 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
2The pickDREAM DIAMOND (USA)pool 10% · model 44.4% · PEDRO PENA
3Next bestVERONIKA Z (USA)pool 0% · model 12.5% · LEONEL REYES
1At a priceGIDDY UP BABY (USA)pool 0% · model 11.7% · EDGAR PEREZ
Exacta box237Trifecta box2371Win2

DREAM DIAMOND (USA) (2) is the pick: model 44% against a 10% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge +5.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

VERONIKA Z (USA) (3) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, GIDDY UP BABY (USA) (1) carries +11.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2DREAM DIAMOND (USA)PEDRO PENA · KATHY P. MONGEON · draw 2 · pool 10% · market #1+5.9#1
  2. 3VERONIKA Z (USA)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+12.5#2
  3. 7HIPPY HIPPY SHAKE (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · KATHLEEN O'CONNELL · draw 7 · pool — · market #5+12.2#3
  4. 1GIDDY UP BABY (USA)EDGAR PEREZ · ANDREA L. PUCKETT · draw 1 · pool — · market #6+11.7#4
  5. 6CALLING THE SHOTS (USA)JONATHAN SANTOS · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+9.1#5
  6. 5BOOMBOX BETTY (USA)J.G. TORREALBA · RONALD B. SPATZ · draw 5 · pool 8% · market #2-24.8#6
  7. 4SHEDOO KITTEN (USA)DAVID BORACO · LUIS DUCO · draw 4 · pool 8% · market #3-26.7#7

Race 7 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
7The pickSOFTLY DREAMING (USA)pool 33% · model 41.7% · EDGAR PEREZ
2Next bestSUNFISH (USA)pool 19% · model 19.1% · LEONEL REYES
Exacta box721Trifecta box721Win7

SOFTLY DREAMING (USA) (7) is the pick: model 42% against a 33% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge +8.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SUNFISH (USA) (2) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7SOFTLY DREAMING (USA)EDGAR PEREZ · KEVIN MCKATHAN · draw 7 · pool 33% · market #1+8.7#1
  2. 2SUNFISH (USA)LEONEL REYES · MICHAEL LERMAN · draw 2 · pool 19% · market #2+0.1#2
  3. 1DEL MAR SUNRISE (IRE)RASHEED HUGHES · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 1 · pool 13% · market #3-1.0#3
  4. 6GREAT ACTRESS (USA)MARCOS MENESES · MARCUS J. VITALI · draw 6 · pool 11% · market #4-1.7#4
  5. 5ROGUE RUNNER (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · GARY G. JACKSON · draw 5 · pool 8% · market #5-1.5#5
  6. 3SCARLETT'S LAW (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · KATHLEEN O'CONNELL · draw 3 · pool 8% · market #6-2.3#6
  7. 4BERT'S KNOTY GIRL (USA)PEDRO PENA · JEFF ENGLER · draw 4 · pool 8% · market #7-2.4#7

Race 8 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
7The pickMISH (USA)pool 54% · model 51.6% · SAMY CAMACHO
5Next bestFINAL PAYMENT (USA)pool 19% · model 13.0% · PEDRO PENA
3At a priceCARAMBASO (USA)pool 0% · model 8.9% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ
Exacta box756Trifecta box7563Win7

MISH (USA) (7) is the pick: model 52% against a 54% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge -2.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

FINAL PAYMENT (USA) (5) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, CARAMBASO (USA) (3) carries +8.9 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7MISH (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 7 · pool 54% · market #1-2.9#1
  2. 5FINAL PAYMENT (USA)PEDRO PENA · BEAU J. CHAPMAN · draw 5 · pool 19% · market #2-6.2#2
  3. 6SWAGGISH (USA)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · SAM WILENSKY · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+10.2#3
  4. 3CARAMBASO (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · REYNALDO YANEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+8.9#4
  5. 2PROUD AMERICAN (USA)EDGAR PEREZ · MARY E. EPPLER · draw 2 · pool 14% · market #3-5.7#5
  6. 4CELTIC PRIDE (USA)CARLOS MARTINEZ · ANGEL M. RODRIGUEZ · draw 4 · pool 7% · market #4-3.1#6
  7. 1KING CAB (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 1 · pool 5% · market #5-1.1#7

Race 1 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

Usable
6f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
2The pickUNBINDING (GB)pool 32% · model 37.3% · UMBERTO RISPOLI
1Next bestYOUNG LOVE (USA)pool 50% · model 33.7% · ARMANDO AGUILAR
6At a priceIMABOUTAGO (IRE)pool 3% · model 5.5% · JOEL ROSARIO
Exacta box214Trifecta box2146Win2

UNBINDING (GB) (2) is the pick: model 37% against a 32% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge +5.3 points.

The pool makes YOUNG LOVE (USA) (1) favourite at 50%; the model rates it 34%, so we overturn the favourite.

YOUNG LOVE (USA) (1) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, IMABOUTAGO (IRE) (6) carries +2.5 points of edge from a 3% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2UNBINDING (GB)UMBERTO RISPOLI · MARK GLATT · draw 2 · pool 32% · market #2+5.3#1
  2. 1YOUNG LOVE (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · PETER MILLER · draw 1 · pool 50% · market #1-16.3#2
  3. 4MAYACAMA (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · JEFF MULLINS · draw 4 · pool 8% · market #3+4.0#3
  4. 5COMEBACK GIRL (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · LEONARD POWELL · draw 5 · pool 5% · market #4+2.2#4
  5. 6IMABOUTAGO (IRE)JOEL ROSARIO · LEONARD POWELL · draw 6 · pool 3% · market #5+2.5#5
  6. 3SWEET GAL OF MINE (USA)MIKE E. SMITH · RICHARD BALTAS · draw 3 · pool 2% · market #6+2.2#6

Race 2 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
2The pickJOINT VENTURE (USA)pool 50% · model 35.1% · KYLE FREY
1Next bestMIGHTY KAI (USA)pool 34% · model 30.6% · TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA
4At a priceMAJESTIC PALISADES (USA)pool 5% · model 8.3% · ARMANDO AGUILAR
Exacta box216Trifecta box2164Win2

JOINT VENTURE (USA) (2) is the pick: model 35% against a 50% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge -15.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MIGHTY KAI (USA) (1) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, MAJESTIC PALISADES (USA) (4) carries +3.2 points of edge from a 5% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2JOINT VENTURE (USA)KYLE FREY · STEVE M. SHERMAN · draw 2 · pool 50% · market #1-15.4#1
  2. 1MIGHTY KAI (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 1 · pool 34% · market #2-3.8#2
  3. 6DEL MAR JERRY (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · STEVEN MIYADI · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+14.8#3
  4. 4MAJESTIC PALISADES (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · PAUL G. AGUIRRE · draw 4 · pool 5% · market #4+3.2#4
  5. 3SOI NGERN (USA)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · VAL BRINKERHOFF · draw 3 · pool 8% · market #3-0.3#5
  6. 5HABEAS (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · BRIAN J. KORINER · draw 5 · pool 2% · market #5+1.5#6

Race 3 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

Usable
6f Turf · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
2The pickGAZON (GB)pool 25% · model 34.2% · ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA
8Next bestARRAKIS (USA)pool 0% · model 12.3% · UMBERTO RISPOLI
1At a priceOPUS UNO (USA)pool 0% · model 10.3% · JOEL ROSARIO
Exacta box283Trifecta box2831Win2

GAZON (GB) (2) is the pick: model 34% against a 25% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -21.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

ARRAKIS (USA) (8) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, OPUS UNO (USA) (1) carries +10.3 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2GAZON (GB)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · VAL BRINKERHOFF · draw 2 · pool 25% · market #1-21.4#1
  2. 8ARRAKIS (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 8 · pool — · market #3+12.3#2
  3. 3PRIME ARTIST (FR)RICARDO GONZALEZ · BLAINE D. WRIGHT · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+11.1#3
  4. 1OPUS UNO (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · PETER MILLER · draw 1 · pool — · market #5+10.3#4
  5. 7HENRY ADAMS (IRE)TYLER BAZE · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 7 · pool — · market #6+9.9#5
  6. 6AMIGO G A (USA)EDGAR PAYERAS · ROLANDO QUINONEZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+9.8#6
  7. 4KIMMER (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · GENARO VALLEJO · draw 4 · pool — · market #8+9.7#7
  8. 5BURNING RUBBER (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · SEAN MCCARTHY · draw 5 · pool 20% · market #2-41.7#8

Race 4 · Santa Anita Park · 9 runners

Blind
5½f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 9 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 4DELANEYS DREAMER (USA)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · VAL BRINKERHOFF · draw 4 · pool 27% · market #1—#1
  2. 8TIGER SMILING (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · BRIAN J. KORINER · draw 8 · pool — · market #3—#2
  3. 5MYSTIC MOSES (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · STEVEN MIYADI · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#3
  4. 9STERN SENTENCE (USA)HENRY REYNOSO LOPEZ · FELIX L. GONZALEZ · draw 9 · pool — · market #5—#4
  5. 7ROOSKI DOO (USA)KYLE FREY · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 7 · pool — · market #6—#5
  6. 6PAPA SANTOS (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · DANIEL DUNHAM · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#6
  7. 2RACK ON MAN (USA)CRISTOBAL HERRERA · SERGIO MORFIN · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#7
  8. 1THE GRAY WOLF (USA)ADRIAN ESCOBEDO · RYAN HANSON · draw 1 · pool — · market #9—#8
  9. 3HEMET GOLD (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · HECTOR O. PALMA · draw 3 · pool 5% · market #2—#9

Race 5 · Santa Anita Park · 9 runners

Thin form
6f Turf · Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
7The pickNOVITA DOMINGA (USA)pool 7% · model 26.8% · JOEL ROSARIO
6Next bestPENNY THE JET (USA)pool 7% · model 24.0% · ABEL LEZCANO
9At a priceFIRST OR LAST (USA)pool 0% · model 9.2% · UMBERTO RISPOLI
Exacta box765Trifecta box7659Win7

NOVITA DOMINGA (USA) (7) is the pick: model 27% against a 7% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -10.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

PENNY THE JET (USA) (6) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, FIRST OR LAST (USA) (9) carries +9.2 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7NOVITA DOMINGA (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 7 · pool 7% · market #1-10.0#1
  2. 6PENNY THE JET (USA)ABEL LEZCANO · PETER MILLER · draw 6 · pool 7% · market #2-12.8#2
  3. 5STREET SWINDLER (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · MARK GLATT · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+9.7#3
  4. 9FIRST OR LAST (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 9 · pool — · market #6+9.2#4
  5. 1SUTURA (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · JACK SISTERSON · draw 1 · pool — · market #7+8.8#5
  6. 3HAZEY JANE (JPN)KAZUSHI KIMURA · MARK GLATT · draw 3 · pool — · market #8+8.3#6
  7. 4MAD PURSUIT (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · RICHARD BALTAS · draw 4 · pool — · market #9+7.3#7
  8. 2MI FLECHA (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · MARTIN VALENZUELA III · draw 2 · pool 3% · market #3-12.2#8
  9. 8HAWAIIAN MOON (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 8 · pool 2% · market #4-8.3#9

Race 6 · Santa Anita Park · 9 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
7The pickYA'LL COME (USA)pool 0% · model 13.1% · ARMANDO AYUSO
1Next bestKING APOLLO (USA)pool 83% · model 12.7% · ABEL LEZCANO
3At a priceBALADI (USA)pool 0% · model 11.2% · EDGAR PAYERAS
Exacta box712Trifecta box7123Win7

YA'LL COME (USA) (7) is the pick: model 13% against a 0% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge +13.1 points.

The pool makes KING APOLLO (USA) (1) favourite at 83%; the model rates it 13%, so we overturn the favourite.

KING APOLLO (USA) (1) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, BALADI (USA) (3) carries +11.2 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7YA'LL COME (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · ANDY MATHIS · draw 7 · pool — · market #2+13.1#1
  2. 1KING APOLLO (USA)ABEL LEZCANO · ROBERT B. HESS, JR. · draw 1 · pool 83% · market #1-87.3#2
  3. 2DOO WOP DON (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · JEFF MULLINS · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+12.6#3
  4. 3BALADI (USA)EDGAR PAYERAS · CRAIG DOLLASE · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+11.2#4
  5. 4STAGGER LEE (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · STEVEN MIYADI · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+11.2#5
  6. 6LEYAS CANDY (USA)RICARDO S. RAMIREZ · JESUS J. URANGA · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+10.8#6
  7. 8TAPALO (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 8 · pool — · market #7+10.7#7
  8. 5MAGIC CONNECTION (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · HECTOR O. PALMA · draw 5 · pool — · market #8+9.3#8
  9. 9NOVINOPHOBIA (USA)EPIFANIO GARCIA · SERGIO MORFIN · draw 9 · pool — · market #9+8.3#9

Race 7 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

Thin form
8f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
2The pickCANTO DELLA TERRA (IRE)pool 47% · model 54.2% · UMBERTO RISPOLI
6Next bestGOODIES (USA)pool 18% · model 14.0% · HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS
4At a priceRIBBONS (USA)pool 0% · model 9.6% · ARMANDO AYUSO
Exacta box263Trifecta box2634Win2

CANTO DELLA TERRA (IRE) (2) is the pick: model 54% against a 47% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +7.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

GOODIES (USA) (6) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, RIBBONS (USA) (4) carries +9.6 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2CANTO DELLA TERRA (IRE)UMBERTO RISPOLI · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 2 · pool 47% · market #1+7.7#1
  2. 6GOODIES (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 6 · pool 18% · market #2-3.8#2
  3. 3LAVENDER LOVE (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · RICHARD BALTAS · draw 3 · pool 18% · market #3-5.8#3
  4. 4RIBBONS (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · LEONARD POWELL · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+9.6#4
  5. 5RAW ABILITY (IRE)JOEL ROSARIO · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 5 · pool 9% · market #4-2.7#5
  6. 1SCHILFLIED (USA)VICTOR ESPINOZA · PATRICK GALLAGHER · draw 1 · pool 9% · market #5-4.9#6

Race 8 · Santa Anita Park · 12 runners

Usable
6½f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo Thoroughbreds · 10 of 12 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
1The pickTIOSIMAGE (USA)pool 29% · model 18.1% · KYLE FREY
5Next bestCHRISTA MCAULIFFE (USA)pool 24% · model 13.5% · EMISAEL JARAMILLO
6At a priceTAKING A JOY RIDE (USA)pool 0% · model 8.8% · JUAN J. HERNANDEZ
Exacta box159Trifecta box1596Win1

TIOSIMAGE (USA) (1) is the pick: model 18% against a 29% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge -10.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

CHRISTA MCAULIFFE (USA) (5) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, TAKING A JOY RIDE (USA) (6) carries +8.8 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1TIOSIMAGE (USA)KYLE FREY · BLAINE D. WRIGHT · draw 1 · pool 29% · market #1-10.6#1
  2. 5CHRISTA MCAULIFFE (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · STEVEN MIYADI · draw 5 · pool 24% · market #2-10.2#2
  3. 9REDHEADED REBA (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · DANIEL DUNHAM · draw 9 · pool 24% · market #3-11.0#3
  4. 6TAKING A JOY RIDE (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · CRAIG ANTHONY LEWIS · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+8.8#4
  5. 3KOOL KITTEN (USA)WELFIN R. ORANTES · ANDY MATHIS · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+7.9#5
  6. 12LA SILENCIOSA (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · VICTOR L. GARCIA · draw 12 · pool — · market #8+7.4#6
  7. 11FACTOR P (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 11 · pool — · market #9+7.0#7
  8. 10KOOL MARIAH (USA)TYLER BAZE · IAN KRULJAC · draw 10 · pool — · market #10+6.3#8
  9. 7LYNDEE'S DREAM (USA)VICTOR ESPINOZA · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 7 · pool — · market #11+6.2#9
  10. 8CECILIA STREET (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · LEONARD POWELL · draw 8 · pool 18% · market #4-11.9#10
  11. 4ZADRA (USA)EPIFANIO GARCIA · D. WAYNE BAKER · draw 4 · pool — · market #12+5.1#11
  12. 2COTTA RIDE (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · MARK GLATT · draw 2 · pool 6% · market #5-5.1#12

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Keeneland (1.12 runs/horse) · Belmont Park (1.00 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

Same engine, three racing worlds:TJK Tahmin · TurkeySha Tin More · Hong KongUSA Pick Day · USA