Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolispool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 10MONUMENTALJUSTICE (USA)+3.628% · 24%
  2. 9COACH KNIGHT (USA)+2.319% · 17%
  3. 7LITTLE JAKE (USA)+1.616% · 14%
  4. 8KING ICE (USA)+0.211% · 11%
  5. 1FERVENT PRAYER (USA)-0.38% · 8%
  6. 5STAR REVIEW (USA)-1.96% · 8%
  7. 3MANSFIELD TIGER (USA)-0.54% · 5%
MONUMENTALJUSTICE (USA) is the pick: model 28% against a 24% pool share · verdict ↓

Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis picks — Mon 2 Nov 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →

6 races today · 39 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Mon 2 Nov 2026 · 2 tracks4 usable of 6 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Mon 02 Nov 2026, 16:45 ET · permalink

2 of 6 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Mon 2 Nov 2026

6 races across Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Finger Lakes · 6 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
4The pickNUTSIE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 5% · model 4.2% · NAZARIO ALVARADO
1Next bestSARATOGA BANKER (USA) (2)pool 0% · model 0.0% · KEIBER J. COA

NUTSIE (USA) (Koşmaz) (4) is the pick: model 4% against a 5% pool share, 12 runs of US form on file, edge -0.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SARATOGA BANKER (USA) (2) (1) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4NUTSIE (USA)NAZARIO ALVARADO · ILMAR LOAIZA · draw 4 · pool 5% · market #1scr#6
  2. 1SARATOGA BANKER (USA) (2)KEIBER J. COA · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2BIG RICH (USA) (5)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · TIMOTHY P. MURPHY · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3STORMIN SAMMY (USA) (4)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · RACHEL SELLS · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 5STARS N STONES (USA) (1)LUIS E. PEREZ · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6LAST DIAMOND (USA) (3)REYLU GUTIERREZ · JON G. ARNETT · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99

Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
1The pickWICKED SUPRISE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 1% · model 2.0% · VICTOR LARA
3Next bestEASE MY MIND (USA) (3)pool 0% · model 0.0% · JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ

WICKED SUPRISE (USA) (Koşmaz) (1) is the pick: model 2% against a 1% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge +1.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

EASE MY MIND (USA) (3) (3) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1WICKED SUPRISE (USA)VICTOR LARA · CHERYL WINEBAUGH · draw 1 · pool 1% · market #1scr#8
  2. 3EASE MY MIND (USA) (3)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · JOHN HARAN · draw 3 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 5REDFIELD (USA) (2)MIGUEL FERNANDEZ · JAMES M. WATKINS · draw 5 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 8FACE THE FUTURE (USA) (1)MITCHELL MURRILL · DANIEL SIMPSON · draw 8 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4ORGANIZED (USA) (6)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · DEAN WARD · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 2DURABLE (USA) (4)MIA NICHOLLS · MARCELINO TORRES · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 6NAVY SOUL (USA) (5)ALEX ACHARD · BONNIE PITTMAN · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 7VACCINATOR (USA) (7)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · MICHAEL S. HAYES · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
8¼f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 9MARTINE (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · JOHN C. SCHULTZ · draw 9 · pool — · market #1—#3
  2. 7KATHI'S GIRL (USA)MIGUEL FERNANDEZ · MARCELINO SALAS · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#6
  3. 3MISTYWAY (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · SHAWNA MARTIN · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#7
  4. 6WHAT YOU WISHED (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#8
  5. 5CHERRY PINK (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 5 · pool — · market #5scr#9
  6. 2APPLE BISCUIT (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 2 · pool — · market #6scr#10
  7. 4BURN BRIGHTLY (USA) (3)MITCHELL MURRILL · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 1ABRA ABRA (USA) (4)ALEX ACHARD · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 10THIS LITTLE LIGHT (USA) (1)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 10 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 8SUCCY'S SONG (USA) (2)SANTO SANJUR · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 8 · pool — · market #10—#99

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 8PUT ME IN COACH (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · GUBER GOROSTIETA · draw 8 · pool — · market #1—#3
  2. 4SOUTHERN SOUL (USA)KEVIN J. JIMENEZ · MARCELINO SALAS · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#4
  3. 7DYNO WAR (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · CARLOS RAMIREZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #3—#7
  4. 5MIDNIGHT MASTER (USA)VICTOR LARA · FERNANDO BAHENA · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#8
  5. 3MELODY MAN (USA) (1)AMIR MENDOZA · J. KENT SWEEZEY · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6FUOCO (USA) (4)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · THOMAS JUDE FARONE · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 9ZUN REYDER (USA) (2)YARMARIE L. CORREA · CLAUDE L. BROWNFIELD III · draw 9 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 1BIG TOM (USA) (5)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · SERGIO DON JUAN · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 2GENTLEMAN JIM (USA) (3)DECLAN CANNON · DESTIN G. HEATH · draw 2 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 12 runners

Usable
5f Turf · Allowance, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 12 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
4The pickOFFICE (USA)pool 34% · model 29.2% · JOSEPH D. RAMOS
11Next bestSUGAR DOLL (USA)pool 22% · model 16.8% · JANE ELLIOTT
5At a pricePANACHE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 7.0% · RODNEY A. PRESCOTT

OFFICE (USA) (4) is the pick: model 29% against a 34% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -5.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SUGAR DOLL (USA) (11) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, PANACHE (USA) (Koşmaz) (5) carries +7.0 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4OFFICE (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · D. WHITWORTH BECKMAN · draw 4 · pool 34% · market #1-5.1#1
  2. 11SUGAR DOLL (USA)JANE ELLIOTT · BRIAN A. LYNCH · draw 11 · pool 22% · market #2-5.4#2
  3. 10SHAMELESS BRIDE (USA)ALEX ACHARD · ETHAN W. WEST · draw 10 · pool 13% · market #3-3.2#3
  4. 5PANACHE (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · JAMES M. WATKINS · draw 5 · pool — · market #9scr#4
  5. 8TIZ IN SIGHT (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · CHRIS A. HARTMAN · draw 8 · pool — · market #10scr#5
  6. 1JAMMER INSURANCE (USA)JOHN MCKEE · ERIC R. REED · draw 1 · pool 9% · market #4-2.4#6
  7. 9MOMENTARIO (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 9 · pool — · market #11scr#7
  8. 12CLIQUE (USA)TRAVIS WALES · HEATHER IRION · draw 12 · pool — · market #12scr#8
  9. 6SARISSA (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · STEPHEN S. SANDY · draw 6 · pool 8% · market #5-3.9#9
  10. 3ELLE'S DANCER (USA)YARMARIE L. CORREA · CLAUDE L. BROWNFIELD III · draw 3 · pool 6% · market #6-3.2#10
  11. 2NELSON'S PENNY (USA)DECLAN CANNON · KINNON LAROSE · draw 2 · pool 4% · market #7-1.9#11
  12. 7GRIMES GLEN (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · HORACIO DEPAZ · draw 7 · pool 3% · market #8-1.3#12

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

Usable
8¼f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
10The pickMONUMENTALJUSTICE (USA)pool 24% · model 27.6% · ALBERTO BURGOS
9Next bestCOACH KNIGHT (USA)pool 17% · model 19.3% · VICTOR LARA

MONUMENTALJUSTICE (USA) (10) is the pick: model 28% against a 24% pool share, 9 runs of US form on file, edge +3.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

COACH KNIGHT (USA) (9) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 10MONUMENTALJUSTICE (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 10 · pool 24% · market #1+3.6#1
  2. 9COACH KNIGHT (USA)VICTOR LARA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 9 · pool 17% · market #2+2.3#2
  3. 7LITTLE JAKE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 7 · pool 14% · market #3+1.6#3
  4. 8KING ICE (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · SHANNON MCGOVERN · draw 8 · pool 11% · market #4+0.2#4
  5. 1FERVENT PRAYER (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 1 · pool 8% · market #5-0.3#5
  6. 5STAR REVIEW (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · SCOTT D. MULLINS · draw 5 · pool 8% · market #6-1.9#6
  7. 3MANSFIELD TIGER (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 3 · pool 5% · market #7-0.5#7
  8. 6ICE EXPRESS (USA)JOSE RIQUELME · ISRAEL J. GARCIA · draw 6 · pool 5% · market #8-1.6#8
  9. 4HE B READY (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 4 · pool 4% · market #9-1.4#9
  10. 2PARKER (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · AGUSTIN GONZALEZ, JR. · draw 2 · pool 4% · market #10-2.1#10

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Zia Park (1.36 runs/horse) · Mountaineer (0.00 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

One discipline, five racing worlds:TJK Tahmin · TurkeySha Tin More · Hong KongUSA Pick Day · USASA Horse Race · South AfricaRace Franch · Francethe network →