Race 2 · Gulfstream Parkpool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 3FLYING CHIEF (USA)+2.034% · 32%
  2. 1ZENICK (USA)+5.826% · 20%
  3. 2THREE CHEERS (USA)-1.112% · 13%
  4. 7INHERENT PROMISE (USA)+0.411% · 11%
  5. 6GIMME ME BIT (USA)-2.15% · 7%
  6. 5ONLY THE LONELY (USA)-2.45% · 7%
  7. 4STUCK IN TRAFFIC (USA)-1.04% · 5%
FLYING CHIEF (USA) is the pick: model 34% against a 32% pool share · verdict ↓

Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park picks — Sat 3 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

16 races today · 8 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Sat 3 Oct 2026 · 2 tracks7 usable of 16 races · model overturns the favourite in 2Written Sat 03 Oct 2026, 03:07 ET · permalink

Today · Sat 3 Oct 2026

16 races across Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Usable
Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
8The pickSHERMAN FURY (USA)pool 50% · model 39.8% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ
4Next bestTALL STORY (USA)pool 21% · model 16.6% · EDGAR PEREZ
1At a priceCRYPTONYM (USA)pool 0% · model 7.0% · MARCOS MENESES
Exacta box847Trifecta box8471Win8

SHERMAN FURY (USA) (8) is the pick: model 40% against a 50% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge -10.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

TALL STORY (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, CRYPTONYM (USA) (1) carries +7.0 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 8SHERMAN FURY (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · MARK PASSLEY · draw 8 · pool 50% · market #1-10.7#1
  2. 4TALL STORY (USA)EDGAR PEREZ · GUSTAVO DELGADO · draw 4 · pool 21% · market #2-4.6#2
  3. 7VIRGINIA CITY (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · STEVE KLESARIS · draw 7 · pool 10% · market #3+1.1#3
  4. 3TRACKSTER (USA)PEDRO PENA · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 3 · pool 7% · market #4+0.4#4
  5. 1CRYPTONYM (USA)MARCOS MENESES · DANIEL C. HURTAK · draw 1 · pool — · market #8+7.0#5
  6. 2FREDERICKSBURG (USA)JONATHAN SANTOS · BERNARDO CAMPOS · draw 2 · pool — · market #9+6.1#6
  7. 5ESPERANZITO (USA)CARLOS MARTINEZ · CARLOS LUIS PEREZ · draw 5 · pool 5% · market #5+0.1#7
  8. 6TAPSTICK (USA)ANTHONY THOMAS · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 6 · pool 5% · market #6-0.3#8
  9. 9OUTTA MONEY (USA)LEONEL REYES · JOSE GAROFFALO · draw 9 · pool 1% · market #7+0.8#9

Race 2 · Gulfstream Park · 8 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
3The pickFLYING CHIEF (USA)pool 32% · model 34.0% · MARCOS MENESES
1Next bestZENICK (USA)pool 20% · model 25.8% · DIEGO A. HERRERA
Exacta box312Trifecta box312Win3

FLYING CHIEF (USA) (3) is the pick: model 34% against a 32% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +2.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

ZENICK (USA) (1) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3FLYING CHIEF (USA)MARCOS MENESES · J. KENT SWEEZEY · draw 3 · pool 32% · market #1+2.0#1
  2. 1ZENICK (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · DAVID FAWKES · draw 1 · pool 20% · market #2+5.8#2
  3. 2THREE CHEERS (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · JOSEPH C. CATANESE III · draw 2 · pool 13% · market #3-1.1#3
  4. 7INHERENT PROMISE (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · LISA L. LEWIS · draw 7 · pool 11% · market #4+0.4#4
  5. 6GIMME ME BIT (USA)JONATHAN SANTOS · MICHAEL YATES · draw 6 · pool 7% · market #5-2.1#5
  6. 5ONLY THE LONELY (USA)HERIBERTO FIGUEROA · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 5 · pool 7% · market #6-2.4#6
  7. 4STUCK IN TRAFFIC (USA)JOSE C. FERRER · RICKY N. DAVIS · draw 4 · pool 5% · market #7-1.0#7
  8. 8D REMBRANDT (USA)SONNY LEON · ARNOUD W. DOBBER · draw 8 · pool 5% · market #8-1.6#8

Race 3 · Gulfstream Park · 6 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
2The pickBROOKLYN GUY (USA)pool 20% · model 39.0% · LEONEL REYES
3Next bestACCELERATE ME (USA)pool 15% · model 19.0% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ
1At a priceCON COMPANIA (CHI)pool 0% · model 14.1% · DIEGO A. HERRERA
Exacta box235Trifecta box2351Win2

BROOKLYN GUY (USA) (2) is the pick: model 39% against a 20% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge -9.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

ACCELERATE ME (USA) (3) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, CON COMPANIA (CHI) (1) carries +14.1 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2BROOKLYN GUY (USA)LEONEL REYES · RONALD COY · draw 2 · pool 20% · market #1-9.8#1
  2. 3ACCELERATE ME (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · RONALD COY · draw 3 · pool 15% · market #2-17.5#2
  3. 5KALIK (CAN)EDWIN GONZALEZ · CARLOS NARVAEZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #4+14.6#3
  4. 1CON COMPANIA (CHI)DIEGO A. HERRERA · BOBBY S. DIBONA · draw 1 · pool — · market #5+14.1#4
  5. 4SWASHBUCKLE (USA)PEDRO PENA · JAVIER NEGRETE · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+9.5#5
  6. 6O CAPTAIN (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 6 · pool 6% · market #3-10.9#6

Race 4 · Gulfstream Park · 8 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
6The pickGUILDENSTERN (IRE)pool 11% · model 35.0% · PEDRO PENA
3Next bestNOBLE SKY (USA)pool 0% · model 13.6% · LEONEL REYES
4At a priceCOSSATOT (USA)pool 0% · model 10.0% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ
Exacta box632Trifecta box6324Win6

GUILDENSTERN (IRE) (6) is the pick: model 35% against a 11% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge -22.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

NOBLE SKY (USA) (3) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, COSSATOT (USA) (4) carries +10.0 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6GUILDENSTERN (IRE)PEDRO PENA · JAVIER NEGRETE · draw 6 · pool 11% · market #1-22.9#1
  2. 3NOBLE SKY (USA)LEONEL REYES · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 3 · pool — · market #3+13.6#2
  3. 2OUR SOUPER HERO (USA)SONNY LEON · MARK E. CASSE · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+11.6#3
  4. 4COSSATOT (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · GARY G. JACKSON · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+10.0#4
  5. 8CAMIGOL (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · ANTONIO SANO · draw 8 · pool — · market #6+9.6#5
  6. 5DISATTACHED (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+9.5#6
  7. 7P FOUR (USA)JONATHAN SANTOS · MICHAEL YATES · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+8.8#7
  8. 1POWER FROM ABOVE (USA)ANTHONY THOMAS · CHRISTOPHER HALL · draw 1 · pool 8% · market #2-40.3#8

Race 5 · Gulfstream Park · 10 runners

Blind
5f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 1 of 10 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 1STARSHIP EXCELSIOR (USA)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 1 · pool 26% · market #1—#1
  2. 3MAXYMISS (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · RAMON MINGUET · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#2
  3. 4TWIN STARS (USA)SONNY LEON · MARK E. CASSE · draw 4 · pool 3% · market #2—#3
  4. 6STARSHIP COUGAR (USA)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#4
  5. 5NYGHT DANCER (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · J. KENT SWEEZEY · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#5
  6. 9EPIC REAY (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 9 · pool — · market #8—#6
  7. 8LADY OF CITY (USA)MARCOS MENESES · ANTONIO SANO · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#7
  8. 2LADY CROSS (USA)EDGAR PEREZ · PEDRO GARCIA, JR. · draw 2 · pool — · market #10—#8
  9. 7WINNING CHARM (USA)PEDRO PENA · RAMON MINGUET · draw 7 · pool 1% · market #3—#9
  10. 10GREAT POLO (USA)CARLOS MARTINEZ · BEN RAMOS · draw 10 · pool 1% · market #4—#10

Race 6 · Gulfstream Park · 12 runners

Usable
7½f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 12 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
1The pickELENIQUE (USA)pool 7% · model 25.6% · J.G. TORREALBA
7Next bestBRUTALLY HONEST (USA)pool 5% · model 15.7% · EDWIN GONZALEZ
3At a priceCITY MINUTE (USA)pool 0% · model 7.8% · RASHEED HUGHES
Exacta box178Trifecta box1783Win1

ELENIQUE (USA) (1) is the pick: model 26% against a 7% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge -11.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

BRUTALLY HONEST (USA) (7) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, CITY MINUTE (USA) (3) carries +7.8 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1ELENIQUE (USA)J.G. TORREALBA · PATRICK L. BIANCONE · draw 1 · pool 7% · market #1-11.3#1
  2. 7BRUTALLY HONEST (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · MARK E. CASSE · draw 7 · pool 5% · market #2-10.6#2
  3. 8PRECIOUS MEDLEY (USA)LEONEL REYES · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 8 · pool — · market #6+8.1#3
  4. 3CITY MINUTE (USA)RASHEED HUGHES · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+7.8#4
  5. 12AMAZONKA (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 12 · pool — · market #8+6.8#5
  6. 6SUPER SIENNA (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 6 · pool — · market #9+6.6#6
  7. 5MIA FAMILIA (USA)PEDRO PENA · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 5 · pool — · market #10+6.3#7
  8. 4STARSHIP MELODY (USA)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 4 · pool — · market #11+6.1#8
  9. 2LINDSAY SMILES (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 2 · pool 3% · market #3-10.0#9
  10. 10OLIVIA VALENTINA (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · CARLOS LUIS PEREZ · draw 10 · pool — · market #12+5.6#10
  11. 11BONITA BREEZE (USA)JOSE C. FERRER · MOISES R. YANEZ · draw 11 · pool 3% · market #4-11.0#11
  12. 9SPARKLING STAR (PER)SONNY LEON · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 9 · pool 1% · market #5-4.4#12

Race 7 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Thin form
8f Dirt · Handicap · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 8 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
1The pickHOLY WARRIOR (USA)pool 42% · model 54.6% · DIEGO A. HERRERA
9Next bestSOUPER ATHLETE (USA)pool 0% · model 7.8% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ
2At a priceSLEW LADY (USA)pool 0% · model 6.4% · PEDRO PENA
Exacta box193Trifecta box1932Win1

HOLY WARRIOR (USA) (1) is the pick: model 55% against a 42% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +12.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SOUPER ATHLETE (USA) (9) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, SLEW LADY (USA) (2) carries +6.4 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1HOLY WARRIOR (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · ROHAN G. CRICHTON · draw 1 · pool 42% · market #1+12.1#1
  2. 9SOUPER ATHLETE (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · STEVE KLESARIS · draw 9 · pool — · market #5+7.8#2
  3. 3AWESOME NOAH (USA)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+6.8#3
  4. 2SLEW LADY (USA)PEDRO PENA · RAMON MINGUET · draw 2 · pool — · market #7+6.4#4
  5. 4IOLANA (USA)MARCOS MENESES · NICHOLAS PALMER · draw 4 · pool — · market #8+6.2#5
  6. 8HOT ROD (USA)EDGAR PEREZ · GERALD S. BENNETT · draw 8 · pool — · market #9+6.2#6
  7. 7STICK TALK (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 7 · pool 19% · market #2-14.7#7
  8. 6THANKS CHARLIE (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · BEAU J. CHAPMAN · draw 6 · pool 19% · market #3-14.8#8
  9. 5SIR ANGELUS (USA)CARLOS MARTINEZ · ANGEL M. RODRIGUEZ · draw 5 · pool 19% · market #4-16.1#9

Race 8 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
1The pickWIN FOR THE MONEY (USA)pool 52% · model 39.7% · SONNY LEON
2Next bestPREVENT (USA)pool 0% · model 9.4% · LEONEL REYES
3At a priceTANK (USA)pool 0% · model 8.6% · SAMY CAMACHO
Exacta box128Trifecta box1283Win1

WIN FOR THE MONEY (USA) (1) is the pick: model 40% against a 52% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -12.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

PREVENT (USA) (2) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, TANK (USA) (3) carries +8.6 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1WIN FOR THE MONEY (USA)SONNY LEON · MARK E. CASSE · draw 1 · pool 52% · market #1-12.3#1
  2. 2PREVENT (USA)LEONEL REYES · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+9.4#2
  3. 8STEAL SUNSHINE (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · BOBBY S. DIBONA · draw 8 · pool — · market #5+8.7#3
  4. 3TANK (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+8.6#4
  5. 6DIVIN PROPOS (FR)RASHEED HUGHES · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 6 · pool 29% · market #2-20.6#5
  6. 9NEAT (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · MICHAEL J. MAKER · draw 9 · pool — · market #7+8.4#6
  7. 5I KNOW I KNOW (USA)J.G. TORREALBA · PATRICK L. BIANCONE · draw 5 · pool — · market #8+7.9#7
  8. 4INDECISIVENESS (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · RUBEN SIERRA · draw 4 · pool — · market #9+6.9#8
  9. 7JAYHAWK (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · BEAU J. CHAPMAN · draw 7 · pool 19% · market #3-17.1#9

Race 1 · Santa Anita Park · 7 runners

Thin form
8f Turf · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 5 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
4The pickBLIKSEM (USA)pool 19% · model 29.0% · KYLE FREY
2Next bestHOAXER (USA)pool 17% · model 23.5% · JOEL ROSARIO
Exacta box421Trifecta box421Win4

BLIKSEM (USA) (4) is the pick: model 29% against a 19% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +10.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

HOAXER (USA) (2) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4BLIKSEM (USA)KYLE FREY · JEFF MULLINS · draw 4 · pool 19% · market #1+10.0#1
  2. 2HOAXER (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · BOB BAFFERT · draw 2 · pool 17% · market #2+6.5#2
  3. 1DREAM SEEKER (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 1 · pool 17% · market #3+5.0#3
  4. 5ABSOLUTION (USA)MIKE E. SMITH · BOB BAFFERT · draw 5 · pool 14% · market #4-2.5#4
  5. 7ET AL (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 7 · pool 11% · market #5-5.9#5
  6. 3SCHOONER (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · DAN BLACKER · draw 3 · pool 11% · market #6-6.5#6
  7. 6FEDERATION (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 6 · pool 11% · market #7-6.6#7

Race 2 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

Thin form
6½f Dirt · Chillingworth Stakes Açık, fillies & mares /3 · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
1The pickTHERMAL (CAN)pool 47% · model 38.3% · JOEL ROSARIO
3Next bestOUR MOONLIGHT (USA)pool 39% · model 26.5% · TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA
2At a priceNO BAD BEATS (USA)pool 0% · model 9.7% · EMISAEL JARAMILLO
Exacta box135Trifecta box1352Win1

THERMAL (CAN) (1) is the pick: model 38% against a 47% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge -8.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

OUR MOONLIGHT (USA) (3) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, NO BAD BEATS (USA) (2) carries +9.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1THERMAL (CAN)JOEL ROSARIO · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 1 · pool 47% · market #1-8.7#1
  2. 3OUR MOONLIGHT (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · DEAN PEDERSON · draw 3 · pool 39% · market #2-12.5#2
  3. 5TOASTER (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · BOB BAFFERT · draw 5 · pool 8% · market #3+6.3#3
  4. 2NO BAD BEATS (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · LEONARD POWELL · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+9.7#4
  5. 4PARADISE CITY (USA)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 4 · pool 3% · market #4+3.7#5
  6. 6ROSIE JEEKS (USA)KYLE FREY · NEIL D. DRYSDALE · draw 6 · pool 3% · market #5+1.5#6

Race 3 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

Thin form
8½f Dirt · Oak Leaf Stakes Açık, fillies & mares /2 · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 5 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
1The pickQUATTRO PASSI (USA)pool 94% · model 48.5% · MIKE E. SMITH
2Next bestHOLMBY (USA)pool 0% · model 13.9% · RICARDO GONZALEZ
4At a priceFREE CLOSER (USA)pool 0% · model 11.0% · JOEL ROSARIO
Exacta box125Trifecta box1254Win1

QUATTRO PASSI (USA) (1) is the pick: model 49% against a 94% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -45.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

HOLMBY (USA) (2) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, FREE CLOSER (USA) (4) carries +11.0 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1QUATTRO PASSI (USA)MIKE E. SMITH · BOB BAFFERT · draw 1 · pool 94% · market #1-45.5#1
  2. 2HOLMBY (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · BOB BAFFERT · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+13.9#2
  3. 5JANIE NOT JEANIE (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 5 · pool — · market #4+12.8#3
  4. 4FREE CLOSER (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+11.0#4
  5. 3DOMAIN EXPANSION (USA)ADRIAN ESCOBEDO · LEONARD POWELL · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+9.4#5
  6. 6DELUGE (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · BOB BAFFERT · draw 6 · pool 6% · market #2-1.6#6

Race 4 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

Usable
6f Turf · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
2The pickMO DIAMANTES (USA)pool 44% · model 50.3% · KAZUSHI KIMURA
8Next bestPOKERKNIGHTATVEES (USA)pool 0% · model 9.1% · MIKE E. SMITH
4At a priceOWL (USA)pool 0% · model 8.2% · JOEL ROSARIO
Exacta box287Trifecta box2874Win2

MO DIAMANTES (USA) (2) is the pick: model 50% against a 44% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -24.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

POKERKNIGHTATVEES (USA) (8) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, OWL (USA) (4) carries +8.2 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2MO DIAMANTES (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · MIKE PUYPE · draw 2 · pool 44% · market #1-24.3#1
  2. 8POKERKNIGHTATVEES (USA)MIKE E. SMITH · SEAN WILLIAMS · draw 8 · pool — · market #5+9.1#2
  3. 7PROOF HE GOES (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 7 · pool — · market #6+8.5#3
  4. 4OWL (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · NEIL D. DRYSDALE · draw 4 · pool — · market #7+8.2#4
  5. 1KING'S RIDE (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · CRAIG ANTHONY LEWIS · draw 1 · pool 6% · market #2-2.2#5
  6. 6SEAVER WAY (USA)EPIFANIO GARCIA · D. WAYNE BAKER · draw 6 · pool — · market #8+6.1#6
  7. 3FRANK BULLITT (USA)TYLER BAZE · DEBBIE WINICK · draw 3 · pool 6% · market #3-4.3#7
  8. 5JETOVATOR (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · PETER EURTON · draw 5 · pool 3% · market #4-1.3#8

Race 5 · Santa Anita Park · 9 runners

Blind
6f Dirt · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 3 of 9 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 5D'S FOUR THUMBS UP (USA)KENT J. DESORMEAUX · AGGIE ORDONEZ · draw 5 · pool 34% · market #1—#1
  2. 3SMOKEM THIRSTY (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 3 · pool 34% · market #2—#2
  3. 9HIGH HULL GILL (USA)CRISTOBAL HERRERA · EDWIN G. ALVAREZ · draw 9 · pool 28% · market #3—#3
  4. 2ANGEL'S EMBER (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#4
  5. 4EMPIRE OF ASH (USA)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#5
  6. 6LOVE DOCTOR (USA)TYLER BAZE · SEAN MCCARTHY · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#6
  7. 7FULLY FAVORABLE (USA)JULIEN R. LEPAROUX · JAMEY R. THOMAS · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#7
  8. 8OLYMPIAN THIRST (USA)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · ADAN FARIAS · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#8
  9. 1MORNING GLASS (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · EDWARD R. FREEMAN · draw 1 · pool 2% · market #4—#9

Race 6 · Santa Anita Park · 7 runners

Thin form
5f Turf · Stakes · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 5 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
2The pickOMAHA SPIRIT (USA)pool 28% · model 29.9% · JUAN J. HERNANDEZ
4Next bestSTUDY SESSION (USA)pool 28% · model 23.3% · MIKE E. SMITH
6At a priceARCTIC WOLF (USA)pool 0% · model 11.6% · EMISAEL JARAMILLO
Exacta box247Trifecta box2476Win2

OMAHA SPIRIT (USA) (2) is the pick: model 30% against a 28% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge -4.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

STUDY SESSION (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, ARCTIC WOLF (USA) (6) carries +11.6 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2OMAHA SPIRIT (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · WESLEY A. WARD · draw 2 · pool 28% · market #1-4.6#1
  2. 4STUDY SESSION (USA)MIKE E. SMITH · BRIAN J. KORINER · draw 4 · pool 28% · market #2-11.2#2
  3. 7OFF IN THE CORNER (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · PETER MILLER · draw 7 · pool 19% · market #3-10.4#3
  4. 6ARCTIC WOLF (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · JACK SISTERSON · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+11.6#4
  5. 3HIGH PRONTO (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+11.3#5
  6. 5BELLEZA LATINA (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · PETER MILLER · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+9.1#6
  7. 1FUMANO'S FIRE (USA)CRISTOBAL HERRERA · EDWIN G. ALVAREZ · draw 1 · pool 6% · market #4-5.8#7

Race 7 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

Thin form
8½f Dirt · American Pharoah Stakes Açık /1 · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 4 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
2The pickHUGHES (USA)pool 0% · model 19.2% · JUAN J. HERNANDEZ
4Next bestIMPERIAL HONOR (USA)pool 0% · model 18.7% · JOEL ROSARIO
6At a priceDOMUS (USA)pool 0% · model 16.6% · KAZUSHI KIMURA
Exacta box245Trifecta box2456Win2

HUGHES (USA) (2) is the pick: model 19% against a 0% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +19.2 points.

The pool makes EMANCIPATE (USA) (5) favourite at 50%; the model rates it 18%, so we overturn the favourite.

IMPERIAL HONOR (USA) (4) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, DOMUS (USA) (6) carries +16.6 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2HUGHES (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · BOB BAFFERT · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+19.2#1
  2. 4IMPERIAL HONOR (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · BOB BAFFERT · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+18.7#2
  3. 5EMANCIPATE (USA)MIKE E. SMITH · BOB BAFFERT · draw 5 · pool 50% · market #1-32.2#3
  4. 6DOMUS (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · BOB BAFFERT · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+16.6#4
  5. 1DANG SON (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 1 · pool 50% · market #2-35.8#5
  6. 3NET PAR (USA)VICTOR ESPINOZA · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+13.4#6

Race 8 · Santa Anita Park · 9 runners

Thin form
6f Turf · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
6The pickRODRIGOKNOWS (USA)pool 0% · model 14.3% · EMISAEL JARAMILLO
5Next bestMOMENT OF VALOR (USA)pool 0% · model 12.7% · ARMANDO AYUSO
7At a priceGOT'M COT'M (USA)pool 0% · model 10.8% · TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA
Exacta box653Trifecta box6537Win6

RODRIGOKNOWS (USA) (6) is the pick: model 14% against a 0% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +14.3 points.

The pool makes DISKO TRIBUTE (USA) (2) favourite at 50%; the model rates it 11%, so we overturn the favourite.

MOMENT OF VALOR (USA) (5) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, GOT'M COT'M (USA) (7) carries +10.8 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6RODRIGOKNOWS (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · HECTOR O. PALMA · draw 6 · pool — · market #3+14.3#1
  2. 5MOMENT OF VALOR (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · PETER EURTON · draw 5 · pool — · market #4+12.7#2
  3. 3COURTSIDE ACTION (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · ANDY MATHIS · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+12.3#3
  4. 2DISKO TRIBUTE (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · CRAIG DOLLASE · draw 2 · pool 50% · market #1-38.7#4
  5. 7GOT'M COT'M (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · VAL BRINKERHOFF · draw 7 · pool — · market #6+10.8#5
  6. 8CHECK'S ON THE WAY (USA)JULIEN R. LEPAROUX · SEAN WILLIAMS · draw 8 · pool — · market #7+10.0#6
  7. 9SAUL ELLIOTT (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · PETER MILLER · draw 9 · pool — · market #8+9.7#7
  8. 1SPEED OF ELON (USA)JOSE VALDIVIA, JR. · DANIEL DUNHAM · draw 1 · pool 50% · market #2-40.4#8
  9. 4BALLYVAUGHAN GIG (USA)KYLE FREY · ISIDRO TAMAYO · draw 4 · pool — · market #9+9.4#9

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Keeneland (1.13 runs/horse) · Belmont Park (1.01 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

Same engine, three racing worlds:TJK Tahmin · TurkeySha Tin More · Hong KongUSA Pick Day · USA