- 1DETAIL ORIENTED (USA) (6)+0.00% · 0%
- 2NOT MY TYPE (USA) (5)+0.00% · 0%
- 4SHELLAC (USA) (1)+0.00% · 0%
- 5RAISULI (USA) (2)+0.00% · 0%
- 6HARD PERFORMER (USA) (3)+0.00% · 0%
- 7BURNING MUNNY (USA) (4)+0.00% · 0%
Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Mahoning Valley picks — Tue 3 Nov 2026
Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.
- Pool + formEarly win-pool share as the spine, 16 measured layers on top
- EdgeModel probability minus what the pool implies
- Usable racesVerdicts only where the form file is deep enough
- Open recordRanks written before race 1, scored after
Today · Tue 3 Nov 2026
Race 8 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners
Usable
Race 8 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners
UsableLIV HAS RIZZ (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) is the pick: model 13% against a 0% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge +12.6 points.
The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.
DETAIL ORIENTED (USA) (6) (1) is the clear second string.
- 3LIV HAS RIZZ (USA)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · CHRIS J. ENGLEHART · draw 3 · pool — · market #1scr#5
- 1DETAIL ORIENTED (USA) (6)KEIBER J. COA · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
- 2NOT MY TYPE (USA) (5)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · MICHAEL T. SABINE · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
- 4SHELLAC (USA) (1)JOSE BAEZ · DANA SAUL · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
- 5RAISULI (USA) (2)CHRIS RUSSELL · JAMES S. ACQUILANO · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
- 6HARD PERFORMER (USA) (3)OSCAR GOMEZ · KATLYNN GUTTERSON · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
- 7BURNING MUNNY (USA) (4)NAZARIO ALVARADO · THALIA ARECHE · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners
NO POOL YET
Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners
NO POOL YET- 3UNCLES LIL TROPHY (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 3 · pool — · market #1scr#3
- 6THEORETICALLY (USA) (1)ORLANDO MOJICA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#99
- 8HAZIEL (USA) (6)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN L. LANGEMEIER · draw 8 · pool — · market #3—#99
- 5SWEET SUMMERTIME (USA) (3)MITCHELL MURRILL · MIGUEL ANGEL SILVA · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#99
- 7COUNTRY EMBRACE (USA) (4)ALEX ACHARD · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#99
- 1TAP BONNET (USA) (2)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#99
- 4AMY EL (USA) (5)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · ROBERT C. STURGEON · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#99
- 2COLOR PALETTE (USA) (7)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#99
Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners
NO POOL YET
Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners
NO POOL YET- 8PRINCE OF POWER (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · DAVID JACOBSON · draw 8 · pool — · market #1scr#2
- 6SEIZE THE NIGHT (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#3
- 1ARCHIE THE GIZA (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · ROBERT MEDINA · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#7
- 2TOUCH OF DESTINY (URU)ORLANDO MOJICA · JOSE LUIZ ARANHA · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#8
- 5MY ROMEO LIMA (USA)YARMARIE L. CORREA · CLAUDE L. BROWNFIELD III · draw 5 · pool — · market #5scr#10
- 10WOODCOURT (USA) (2)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 10 · pool — · market #6—#99
- 9FIRST BID (USA) (3)ANGEL ORTEGA STANLEY · PAT CLAY · draw 9 · pool — · market #7—#99
- 4OVERSTATEMENT (USA) (1)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · KENNETH G. MILLER · draw 4 · pool — · market #8—#99
- 3MORUNNING (USA) (5)MITCHELL MURRILL · CHRISTOPHER DAVIS · draw 3 · pool — · market #9—#99
- 7SUABLENANAV TH (URU) (4)JANE ELLIOTT · JOSE LUIZ ARANHA · draw 7 · pool — · market #10—#99
Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 14 runners
Usable
Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 14 runners
UsableSTART HER UP (USA) (9) is the pick: model 14% against a 13% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge +1.5 points.
The pool makes MY SECRET DREAMS (USA) (7) favourite at 15%; the model rates it 12%, so we overturn the favourite.
MY SECRET DREAMS (USA) (7) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.
For something at a price, ZIVA (USA) (Koşmaz) (5) carries +5.2 points of edge from a 0% pool share.
- 9START HER UP (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 9 · pool 13% · market #3+1.5#1
- 7MY SECRET DREAMS (USA)VICTOR LARA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 7 · pool 15% · market #1-3.0#3
- 12IMMINENT RISK (USA)MICAH MEEKS · DESTIN G. HEATH · draw 12 · pool 14% · market #2-3.2#4
- 2MARIPOSA MOON (USA)IRVING MONCADA · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 2 · pool 12% · market #4-1.9#5
- 5ZIVA (USA)BRODY MARTINEZ · BYRON G. HUGHES · draw 5 · pool — · market #8scr#9
- 8VARANA (USA)DANILO GRISALES RAVE · WAYNE M. CATALANO · draw 8 · pool — · market #9scr#10
- 10TECTONIC (USA)MIA NICHOLLS · FRANK K. HORVATH · draw 10 · pool 4% · market #5-0.2#11
- 13CHINATOWN GIRL (USA)BRODY MARTINEZ · AMY NESBITT · draw 13 · pool 2% · market #6-0.5#13
- 14SECRET FLAME (USA)LUIS FUENMAYOR · BRANDON GLASGOW · draw 14 · pool 1% · market #7+0.1#14
- 6SHIDONI (USA) (3)ANGEL SERPA · FELIPE SALAS · draw 6 · pool — · market #10+0.0#99
- 11DAPHNE BREWNETTE (USA) (4)ALBERTO BURGOS · PAULO H. LOBO · draw 11 · pool — · market #11+0.0#99
- 1NOLA LOUISE (USA) (1)ORLANDO MOJICA · TROY NEWTON · draw 1 · pool — · market #12+0.0#99
- 3BOURBON AMERICANA (USA) (5)ISRAEL HERNANDEZ · BLANCA CANDELAS · draw 3 · pool — · market #13+0.0#99
- 4HERE COMES FANNY (USA) (2)MIGUEL FERNANDEZ · WAYNE M. CATALANO · draw 4 · pool — · market #14+0.0#99
Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners
Usable
Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners
UsableCHARMING JUSTICE (USA) (Koşmaz) (7) is the pick: model 7% against a 0% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +7.3 points.
The pool makes LOTTA CHARM (USA) (10) favourite at 3%; the model rates it 4%, so we overturn the favourite.
LOTTA CHARM (USA) (10) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.
- 7CHARMING JUSTICE (USA)MICAH MEEKS · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 7 · pool — · market #5scr#5
- 10LOTTA CHARM (USA)JOSE RIQUELME · ANDREW C. BROWN · draw 10 · pool 3% · market #1+1.3#6
- 9BURTS BOURBON GIRL (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 9 · pool 2% · market #2+1.8#7
- 4DEEP DREAMS (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 4 · pool 2% · market #3+0.8#9
- 2ONELILCONQUEST (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · RAYMOND J. PAQUETTE III · draw 2 · pool 1% · market #4+1.3#10
- 8TIVA (USA) (3)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · JONATHAN NANCE · draw 8 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
- 3MISTY MOON SONG (USA) (5)HANNAH LEAHEY · BRIAN L. SCHLING · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
- 5BLAZEN EYES (USA) (1)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · TERRY VAUGHN · draw 5 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
- 6SAN VALENTINA (USA) (2)VICTOR LARA · MIGUEL ANGEL SILVA · draw 6 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99
- 1DESTINY INA BOTTLE (USA) (4)ANGEL ORTEGA STANLEY · TRACEY J. WISNER · draw 1 · pool — · market #10+0.0#99
Race 9 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners
Usable
Race 9 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners
UsableLARGE POUR (USA) (8) is the pick: model 29% against a 31% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge -2.2 points.
The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.
OIL MAN (USA) (5) is the clear second string.
For something at a price, SECRET'S IMAGE (USA) (Koşmaz) (4) carries +6.0 points of edge from a 0% pool share.
- 8LARGE POUR (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 8 · pool 31% · market #1-2.2#1
- 5OIL MAN (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 5 · pool 18% · market #2-0.9#2
- 3WILLY'S IN CHARGE (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 3 · pool 17% · market #3-0.4#3
- 1DO YA WANNA DANCE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 1 · pool 13% · market #4-0.0#4
- 9POSITIVE CHANGE (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · JULIE SEBASTIAN · draw 9 · pool 7% · market #5-0.6#5
- 4SECRET'S IMAGE (USA)MICAH MEEKS · ANDREW C. BROWN · draw 4 · pool — · market #9scr#6
- 6SLAM DUNK JUSTICE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · GENARO GARCIA · draw 6 · pool 6% · market #6-0.1#7
- 2LAMBAY (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · TRACEY J. WISNER · draw 2 · pool 6% · market #7-1.0#8
- 7MIKE'S CYCLONE (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · JOHN HARAN · draw 7 · pool 3% · market #8-0.9#9
Race 2 · Mahoning Valley · 6 runners
Thin form
Race 2 · Mahoning Valley · 6 runners
Thin formA CAB ON THE ROCKS (USA) (Koşmaz) (4) is the pick: model 12% against a 0% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +12.2 points.
The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.
SCAREDY CATNESS (USA) (5) (1) is the clear second string.
The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.
- 4A CAB ON THE ROCKS (USA)RENZO DIAZ · MARCO CCAMAQUE · draw 4 · pool — · market #1scr#4
- 1SCAREDY CATNESS (USA) (5)DESHAWN L. PARKER · MARCO CCAMAQUE · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
- 2LIL TRICK (USA) (3)LUIS ALBERTO BATISTA · REY HERNANDEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
- 3CALL SHADD (USA) (1)VICTOR R. FERNANDEZ · RICHARD ZIELINSKI · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
- 5DISTANT GALAXY (USA) (2)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
- 6REDACTED (USA) (4)LUIS RAUL RIVERA · ANTHONY FARRIOR · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
Race 5 · Mahoning Valley · 11 runners
NO POOL YET
Race 5 · Mahoning Valley · 11 runners
NO POOL YET- 11WINGS OF GOD (USA)GERARDO CORRALES · JAMI C. POOLE · draw 11 · pool — · market #1scr#3
- 8LOBO SALVAJE (USA)LUIS ALBERTO BATISTA · NERY ALVAREZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #2scr#5
- 4NANTUCKET (USA)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · MARCO CCAMAQUE · draw 4 · pool — · market #3scr#9
- 5HAVE A CIGAR (USA)HUMBERTO HALDAR · IVAN CALDERON · draw 5 · pool — · market #4scr#11
- 1KEEN SURGE (USA) (2)JOSE A. BRACHO · JULIE A. PAPPADA · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#99
- 2BANDOLERO (USA) (5)DESHAWN L. PARKER · STEVE MANLEY · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#99
- 3TWIST 'N TWIRL (USA) (7)ELIJAH GREENIDGE · RODNEY C. FAULKNER · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#99
- 6CANNON (USA) (3)VICTOR R. FERNANDEZ · ROBERT C. CLINE · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#99
- 7WISE WORDS (USA) (6)CHELSEY KEISER · SHANE MEYERS · draw 7 · pool — · market #9—#99
- 9GOOD STUFF (USA) (1)JASON SIMPSON · RICARDO BAILEY · draw 9 · pool — · market #10—#99
- 10LUCKY DESTINY (USA) (4)ALEXANDER BENDEZU · SCOTT BECKER · draw 10 · pool — · market #11—#99
Race 6 · Mahoning Valley · 8 runners
NO POOL YET
Race 6 · Mahoning Valley · 8 runners
NO POOL YET- 8FAST TALKIN MAN (USA)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · JEVON D. CRUMLEY · draw 8 · pool — · market #1—#4
- 1MYSTIC POWER (USA)ALEXANDER BENDEZU · STEVE MANLEY · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#5
- 2HARBOUR BRIDGE (USA)LUIS ALBERTO BATISTA · CRAIG SWEETING · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#6
- 5MAJESTIC FRONTIER (USA)MCKENNA ANDERSON · AMY SONDEJ · draw 5 · pool — · market #4scr#7
- 3COALMINER'S KITTEN (USA) (2)ANGEL I. DIAZ · RODNEY C. FAULKNER · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#99
- 4EL GUTY (USA) (3)BRANDON TAPARA · JAY P. BERNARDINI · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#99
- 6STRIKE APPEAL (USA) (1)ALEXANDER CHAVEZ · MICHELLE WINTERS · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
- 7SAILOR'S CHANCE (USA) (4)CHELSEY KEISER · MARY L. HURLEY · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#99
Race 7 · Mahoning Valley · 7 runners
NO POOL YET
Race 7 · Mahoning Valley · 7 runners
NO POOL YET- 4O. G. MOONDANCER (USA)CHELSEY KEISER · JEVON D. CRUMLEY · draw 4 · pool — · market #1scr#4
- 1VESPER MARTINI (USA) (1)MAURO CEDILLO · MEGAN FADLOVICH · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
- 2POWER VISION (USA) (4)VICTOR R. FERNANDEZ · ROBERT C. CLINE · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
- 3DOLLAR DANCE (USA) (5)HUMBERTO HALDAR · SAUL M. MORALES · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
- 5CATPUCCINO (USA) (3)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · DAVID WOLOCHUK · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
- 6DOUBLE SANDY (USA) (6)ERIK BARBARAN · KRISTINA M. TUMBLIN · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
- 7BOKEH (USA) (2)JOSE A. BRACHO · JUSTIN RADOSEVICH · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
Race 8 · Mahoning Valley · 7 runners
Thin form
Race 8 · Mahoning Valley · 7 runners
Thin formMY MAYBELENNE (USA) (Koşmaz) (7) is the pick: model 11% against a 0% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +10.8 points.
The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.
DIVINE FASHION (USA) (Koşmaz) (4) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.
The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.
- 7MY MAYBELENNE (USA)DAVID J. HALDAR · KELLI MARTINEZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #1scr#4
- 4DIVINE FASHION (USA)T. D. HOUGHTON · RICARDO BAILEY · draw 4 · pool — · market #2scr#5
- 1O SHAUGHESEY (USA) (4)AGUSTIN BRACHO · JOSE BRACHO, JR. · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
- 2STATE CHARMER (USA) (1)JASON SIMPSON · RICARDO BAILEY · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
- 3FIRST HILL (USA) (3)LUIS ANTONIO GONZALEZ · JEFFREY SKERRETT · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
- 5KOZEM (USA) (2)HUMBERTO HALDAR · CARYN VECCHIO · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
- 6LADY RILEY (USA) (5)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · KELLI MARTINEZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Zia Park (1.35 runs/horse) · Mountaineer (1.00 runs/horse)
What the numbers mean
Pool share and edge
The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.
How the model was tested
Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.
Usable, thin, blind
A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.