Race 1 · Santa Anita Parkpool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 6KNOWN IDEA (USA)+12.939% · 26%
  2. 3LYLE THE CROCODILE (IRE)+3.327% · 24%
  3. 4PRINCE DOLCE (USA)-2.615% · 18%
  4. 5CENTRODELANTERO (USA)-4.010% · 14%
  5. 2SHAMROCK GLITTER (FR)-5.06% · 11%
  6. 1SIR ROCKET (USA)-4.53% · 8%
KNOWN IDEA (USA) is the pick: model 39% against a 26% pool share · verdict ↓

Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park picks — Sun 4 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

16 races today · 10 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Sun 4 Oct 2026 · 2 tracks8 usable of 16 races · model overturns the favourite in 2Written Sun 04 Oct 2026, 15:45 ET · permalink

6 of 16 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Sun 4 Oct 2026

16 races across Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Thin form
MAIDEN SOptional claiming Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 1 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
4The pickCATHEDRAL SUN (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 16% · model 12.0% · YOLBER TORRES
1Next bestDAUGHTER'S LEGACY (USA) (6)pool 0% · model 0.0% · JONATHAN OCASIO
Exacta box412Trifecta box412Win4

CATHEDRAL SUN (USA) (Koşmaz) (4) is the pick: model 12% against a 16% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -4.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

DAUGHTER'S LEGACY (USA) (6) (1) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4CATHEDRAL SUN (USA) (Koşmaz)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 4 · pool 16% · market #1-4.0#3
  2. 1DAUGHTER'S LEGACY (USA) (6)JONATHAN OCASIO · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2HATTIE G (USA) (8)HERIBERTO FIGUEROA · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3OLYMPIC KITTY (USA) (7)JOSE E. MORELOS · HUBER DOMINGUEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 5GRAND HEIRESS (USA) (5)J.G. TORREALBA · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6PRETTY PITA (USA) (3)MARCOS MENESES · J. KENT SWEEZEY · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7STARSHIP CONTENDER (USA) (2)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 8KISSED BY A ROSE (USA) (1)DIEGO A. HERRERA · RONALD B. SPATZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 9GRANT ME PEACE (USA) (4)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · NICHOLAS PALMER · draw 9 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99

Race 2 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
1The pickTHE PACKAGE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 12.3% · LEONEL REYES
3Next bestLITTLE TOWN STREET (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 19% · model 2.9% · PEDRO PENA
Exacta box132Trifecta box132Win1

THE PACKAGE (USA) (Koşmaz) (1) is the pick: model 12% against a 0% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge +12.3 points.

The pool makes LITTLE TOWN STREET (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) favourite at 19%; the model rates it 3%, so we overturn the favourite.

LITTLE TOWN STREET (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1THE PACKAGE (USA) (Koşmaz)LEONEL REYES · FRANK J. REGALBUTO · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+12.3#5
  2. 3LITTLE TOWN STREET (USA) (Koşmaz)PEDRO PENA · FERNANDO ABREU · draw 3 · pool 19% · market #1-16.1#7
  3. 2AERIALIST (USA) (1)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · SEBASTIAN PULGARIN · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 4BELLA JAK (USA) (4)DAVID BORACO · LUIS DUCO · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 5DAME'S ROCKET (USA) (2)SONNY LEON · MARK E. CASSE · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6SPIRIT OF VICTORY (USA) (5)DIEGO A. HERRERA · STEVE KLESARIS · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7MEET ME IN THE AIR (USA) (3)EDWIN GONZALEZ · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 3 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
MAIDEN SOptional claiming Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 1 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5AMERICAN REIGN (USA) (Koşmaz)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4MY LAST BUCKY (USA) (Koşmaz)JONATHAN OCASIO · GERALD S. BENNETT · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#6
  3. 3ZACARRA (USA) (Koşmaz)HERIBERTO FIGUEROA · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#7
  4. 1LA LEAL (USA) (2)EDGAR PEREZ · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 2CYNSTER (USA) (1)SAMY CAMACHO · BEAU J. CHAPMAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6STELLAR QUEEN (USA) (2)JOSE E. MORELOS · DAVID FAWKES · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7THE SECRET ANA (USA) (4)DIEGO A. HERRERA · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 4 · Gulfstream Park · 6 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
6The pickADIOS MATE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 12.2% · PEDRO PENA
1Next bestFUOCO VIVO (USA) (4)pool 0% · model 0.0% · EDWIN GONZALEZ
Exacta box612Trifecta box612Win6

ADIOS MATE (USA) (Koşmaz) (6) is the pick: model 12% against a 0% pool share, 8 runs of US form on file, edge +12.2 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

FUOCO VIVO (USA) (4) (1) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6ADIOS MATE (USA) (Koşmaz)PEDRO PENA · JOSE GAROFFALO · draw 6 · pool — · market #1+12.2#4
  2. 1FUOCO VIVO (USA) (4)EDWIN GONZALEZ · ROHAN G. CRICHTON · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2KAZOOZA (USA) (1)JONATHAN OCASIO · GARRETT W. ARSCOTT · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3HENDRICKSON (USA) (5)YOLBER TORRES · MARK EAGAN · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4WESTERN SHAFT (USA) (2)SAMY CAMACHO · DANIEL C. HURTAK · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5LOBO GO (USA) (3)PEDRO PENA · BARRY N. CROFT · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99

Race 5 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1SOSUA SUMMER (USA) (Koşmaz)J.G. TORREALBA · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 9FULANITO (USA) (Koşmaz)PEDRO PENA · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 9 · pool — · market #2—#4
  3. 2XY SPEED (USA) (Koşmaz)LEONEL REYES · MICHAEL LERMAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#6
  4. 3SABIAN (USA) (1)SAMY CAMACHO · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4WHITE BULLET (USA) (4)CARLOS MARTINEZ · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5GIANT TEDDY (CAN) (5)DIEGO A. HERRERA · ANDREA L. PUCKETT · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6TEST FACTOR (USA) (3)NIK JUAREZ · ROHAN G. CRICHTON · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 7GABALDON (USA) (2)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 8EAMONN (USA) (6)EDWIN GONZALEZ · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 6 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
7f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
1The pickON MY TIME (USA)pool 11% · model 17.8% · SONNY LEON
3Next bestMOISSANITE (USA)pool 0% · model 15.9% · DIEGO A. HERRERA
Exacta box132Trifecta box132Win1

ON MY TIME (USA) (1) is the pick: model 18% against a 11% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge -82.2 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MOISSANITE (USA) (3) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1ON MY TIME (USA)SONNY LEON · MARK E. CASSE · draw 1 · pool 11% · market #1-82.2#1
  2. 3MOISSANITE (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · DAVID FAWKES · draw 3 · pool — · market #2+15.9#2
  3. 2BON VIVANT (USA) (3)SAMY CAMACHO · ANTONIO SANO · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 4LADY ROCKULA (USA) (1)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 5ALWAYS PRAISING (USA) (5)HERIBERTO FIGUEROA · DILEY A. DAKIN · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6CONQUISTADORA (USA) (4)LEONEL REYES · FRANCISCO ALANIS · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7IBIS (USA) (2)JOSE E. MORELOS · FRANCISCO ALANIS · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 7 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
5The pickETENDRE (USA)pool 29% · model 19.7% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ
7Next bestHOLY STICK (CHI)pool 24% · model 17.9% · MARCOS MENESES
3At a priceCAPTURE THE TIME (USA)pool 0% · model 13.7% · EDWIN GONZALEZ
Exacta box574Trifecta box5743Win5

ETENDRE (USA) (5) is the pick: model 20% against a 29% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge -9.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

HOLY STICK (CHI) (7) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, CAPTURE THE TIME (USA) (3) carries +13.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5ETENDRE (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · DANIEL C. HURTAK · draw 5 · pool 29% · market #1-9.0#1
  2. 7HOLY STICK (CHI)MARCOS MENESES · AMADOR MEREI SANCHEZ · draw 7 · pool 24% · market #2-5.9#2
  3. 4SCHNITTKER (USA)CARLOS MARTINEZ · ANGEL M. RODRIGUEZ · draw 4 · pool 23% · market #3-6.0#3
  4. 6CHAPLIN (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · JOSE M. CASTRO · draw 6 · pool 23% · market #4-6.1#4
  5. 3CAPTURE THE TIME (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · REYNALDO YANEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+13.7#5
  6. 2TORCH IS PASSED (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · NOLAN RAMSEY · draw 2 · pool — · market #7+13.4#6
  7. 1CROSS HASTE (USA)SONNY LEON · DOUGLAS NUNN · draw 1 · pool 2% · market #5-0.1#7

Race 8 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
2The pickTHE DOVE RULES (USA)pool 23% · model 23.5% · EDWIN GONZALEZ
3Next bestAMANDE (USA)pool 25% · model 23.4% · LEONEL REYES
4At a priceBOOT'S ON THE MOON (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 10.6% · PEDRO PENA
Exacta box237Trifecta box2374Win2

THE DOVE RULES (USA) (2) is the pick: model 24% against a 23% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge +0.7 points.

The pool makes AMANDE (USA) (3) favourite at 25%; the model rates it 23%, so we overturn the favourite.

AMANDE (USA) (3) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, BOOT'S ON THE MOON (USA) (Koşmaz) (4) carries +10.6 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2THE DOVE RULES (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 2 · pool 23% · market #3+0.7#1
  2. 3AMANDE (USA)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 3 · pool 25% · market #1-1.4#2
  3. 7WOULD I LIE TO YOU (USA)RASHEED HUGHES · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 7 · pool 24% · market #2-6.3#3
  4. 5ZOLENE (USA) (Koşmaz)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 5 · pool 23% · market #4-6.2#4
  5. 4BOOT'S ON THE MOON (USA) (Koşmaz)PEDRO PENA · RONALD B. SPATZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #7+10.6#5
  6. 6VIKING QUEST (USA)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · LAUREN ROBSON · draw 6 · pool 3% · market #5+1.7#6
  7. 1UNCAPTURED DOVE (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · DAVID FAWKES · draw 1 · pool 3% · market #6+0.8#7

Race 1 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
6The pickKNOWN IDEA (USA)pool 26% · model 38.7% · JUAN J. HERNANDEZ
3Next bestLYLE THE CROCODILE (IRE)pool 24% · model 27.1% · JOEL ROSARIO
Exacta box634Trifecta box634Win6

KNOWN IDEA (USA) (6) is the pick: model 39% against a 26% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +12.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

LYLE THE CROCODILE (IRE) (3) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6KNOWN IDEA (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 6 · pool 26% · market #1+12.9#1
  2. 3LYLE THE CROCODILE (IRE)JOEL ROSARIO · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 3 · pool 24% · market #2+3.3#2
  3. 4PRINCE DOLCE (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 4 · pool 18% · market #3-2.6#3
  4. 5CENTRODELANTERO (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · HECTOR O. PALMA · draw 5 · pool 14% · market #4-4.0#4
  5. 2SHAMROCK GLITTER (FR)JULIEN R. LEPAROUX · NEIL D. DRYSDALE · draw 2 · pool 11% · market #5-5.0#5
  6. 1SIR ROCKET (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · NEIL D. DRYSDALE · draw 1 · pool 8% · market #6-4.5#6

Race 2 · Santa Anita Park · 5 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 5 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
3The pickSPRINGLINE (USA)pool 39% · model 41.8% · ARMANDO AYUSO
4Next bestGOOD GOLLY DOLLY (USA)pool 32% · model 27.9% · JOEL ROSARIO
Exacta box341Trifecta box341Win3

SPRINGLINE (USA) (3) is the pick: model 42% against a 39% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge +3.2 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

GOOD GOLLY DOLLY (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3SPRINGLINE (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · RYAN HANSON · draw 3 · pool 39% · market #1+3.2#1
  2. 4GOOD GOLLY DOLLY (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 4 · pool 32% · market #2-3.8#2
  3. 1SUGAR REIGN (USA)KYLE FREY · ISIDRO TAMAYO · draw 1 · pool 21% · market #3-1.3#3
  4. 5UNION HEIRESS (USA)EPIFANIO GARCIA · D. WAYNE BAKER · draw 5 · pool 5% · market #4+1.6#4
  5. 2DANZIG TIL DAWN (USA)JEREMY LAPRIDA · D. WAYNE BAKER · draw 2 · pool 4% · market #5+0.3#5

Race 3 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 6 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5SEPARATOR (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3SURFIN THE COAST (USA)KYLE FREY · JEFF MULLINS · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 2GLORY'Z CLUBHOUSE (USA)TYLER BAZE · SEAN MCCARTHY · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 6MAGIC JEWEL (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 1ZADRA (USA)EPIFANIO GARCIA · D. WAYNE BAKER · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 4CELESTIAL SKIES (USA)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · GLORIA HALEY · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#6

Race 4 · Santa Anita Park · 5 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Zuma Beach Stakes Açık /3 · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 3 of 5 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5REPO MAN (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2MAXIFY (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4OFF IN THE CORNER (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · PETER MILLER · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1A P OXBOW (USA)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3DUTY BOUND (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · JACK SISTERSON · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5

Race 5 · Santa Anita Park · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7KEEP MOVIN' ON (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · MARK GLATT · draw 7 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 5LOW EXPECTATIONS (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 5 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1SHORTMAN (USA)CESAR ORTEGA · OSCAR HEREDIA · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 6BIG JUANITO (USA)TYLER BAZE · ROBERT B. HESS, JR. · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3CRYPTO RIDE (USA)KYLE FREY · SIMON HOBSON · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2SPIRITIST (USA)ABEL LEZCANO · ROLANDO QUINONEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 4KIDDO LIGHT (USA)ALI HUSAIN · JOSE R. VALDEZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 6 · Santa Anita Park · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Surfer Girl Stakes Açık, fillies & mares /3 · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 5 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5VANTA (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · JEFF MULLINS · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 7LESS PLEASE (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · EDWARD R. FREEMAN · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1DEE SNOOK (IRE)KAZUSHI KIMURA · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 3BIG BLAST (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · TIM YAKTEEN · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6RIVER IN PARADISE (GB)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · LEONARD POWELL · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2DASH (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 4BLOCKADE (USA)ADRIAN ESCOBEDO · RYAN HANSON · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 7 · Santa Anita Park · 9 runners

Thin form
6f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 4 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
9The pickPROSPECT OF LOVE (USA)pool 25% · model 30.3% · JUAN J. HERNANDEZ
8Next bestWEHO (USA)pool 19% · model 17.5% · JOEL ROSARIO
Exacta box986Trifecta box986Win9

PROSPECT OF LOVE (USA) (9) is the pick: model 30% against a 25% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +5.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

WEHO (USA) (8) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 9PROSPECT OF LOVE (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · BOB BAFFERT · draw 9 · pool 25% · market #1+5.5#1
  2. 8WEHO (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 8 · pool 19% · market #2-1.3#2
  3. 6VINO VINO VINO (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 6 · pool 16% · market #3-0.5#3
  4. 4MO CHUISLE (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 4 · pool 15% · market #4-2.4#4
  5. 2MISS ATHENS (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · BOB BAFFERT · draw 2 · pool 8% · market #5+0.4#5
  6. 1AMERICAN SPIRIT (USA)JULIEN R. LEPAROUX · NEIL D. DRYSDALE · draw 1 · pool 8% · market #6-1.6#6
  7. 5LUCILLE B (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 5 · pool 4% · market #7+0.4#7
  8. 7CONFETTI RAIN (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 7 · pool 3% · market #8-0.2#8
  9. 3WELL VERSED (USA) (Koşmaz)MIKE E. SMITH · RICHARD E. MANDELLA · draw 3 · pool 3% · market #9-0.2#9

Race 8 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
1The pickFIBONACCIS RIDE (USA)pool 27% · model 26.2% · VICTOR ESPINOZA
5Next bestDELIGHTFUL LAURA (USA)pool 19% · model 20.3% · JUAN J. HERNANDEZ
Exacta box152Trifecta box152Win1

FIBONACCIS RIDE (USA) (1) is the pick: model 26% against a 27% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge -0.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

DELIGHTFUL LAURA (USA) (5) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1FIBONACCIS RIDE (USA)VICTOR ESPINOZA · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 1 · pool 27% · market #1-0.5#1
  2. 5DELIGHTFUL LAURA (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · PETER EURTON · draw 5 · pool 19% · market #3+1.5#2
  3. 2LADY RIDER (USA)TYLER BAZE · VLADIMIR CERIN · draw 2 · pool 20% · market #2-0.6#3
  4. 6YOGA MASTER (GB)JOEL ROSARIO · LEONARD POWELL · draw 6 · pool 13% · market #4+0.1#4
  5. 8MISS MEAGHER (IRE)EPIFANIO GARCIA · D. WAYNE BAKER · draw 8 · pool 9% · market #5-1.7#5
  6. 4UPCHARGE (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 4 · pool 6% · market #6+0.7#6
  7. 3LUBIE'S MUSIC (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · RICHARD E. MANDELLA · draw 3 · pool 5% · market #7-0.4#7
  8. 7HANNAH BUCKLE (IRE) (Koşmaz)ARMANDO AYUSO · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 7 · pool 2% · market #8+0.9#8

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Keeneland (1.14 runs/horse) · Belmont Park (1.01 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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