Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolispool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 5STANKA (USA) (1)+0.00% · 0%
  2. 1SPIRITED ANNE (USA) (5)+0.00% · 0%
  3. 4VORTEX EXPRESS (USA) (2)+0.00% · 0%
  4. 6YOTOWIN (USA) (3)+0.00% · 0%
  5. 3GIO'S BABY GIRL (USA) (4)+0.00% · 0%
JOLLY JUSTICE (USA) (Koşmaz) is the pick: model 13% against a 0% pool share · verdict ↓

Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Mahoning Valley picks — Wed 4 Nov 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →🏇 Run the race →

16 races today · 41 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Wed 4 Nov 2026 · 3 tracks7 usable of 16 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Wed 04 Nov 2026, 17:15 ET · permalink

6 of 16 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Wed 4 Nov 2026

16 races across Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Mahoning Valley. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 5 · Finger Lakes · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 12 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6MONTAUK MYSTIQUE (USA)JEREMIAS FLORES · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 6 · pool — · market #1scr#2
  2. 4TENACIOUS CHILD (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · RACHEL SELLS · draw 4 · pool — · market #2scr#3
  3. 12MAIZE LOVED LAFFY (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · JOSEPH E. MARINO · draw 12 · pool — · market #3scr#4
  4. 7LADY BANKER (USA)OLAF HERNANDEZ · RALPH D'ALESSANDRO · draw 7 · pool — · market #4scr#7
  5. 1BACK TO KHALI (USA) (5)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · CHRIS J. ENGLEHART · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 2JAY'S LOVE (USA) (4)CHRIS RUSSELL · LUIS GUTIERREZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 3WILDCAT ANNIE (USA) (2)J. M. ROHENA · TAMARA HOUSEL · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 5BOUNTY KILLAH (USA) (6)JOSE VENTURA · ILMAR LOAIZA · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 8HONEY IN THE BANK (USA) (1)JOHN C. BERRIOS · THALIA ARECHE · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 9VOLAMO (USA) (3)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · JAMES S. ACQUILANO · draw 9 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 10LADY OF MERCIA (USA) (7)JUAN J. DIAZ · THALIA ARECHE · draw 10 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 11SWEET CAROL JAMES (USA) (8)STEVEN FRET · BRENT BOND · draw 11 · pool — · market #12—#99

Race 7 · Finger Lakes · 8 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
6The pickMIGUEL'S BELLE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 11.5% · REYLU GUTIERREZ
1Next bestTIMELY REWARD (USA) (7)pool 0% · model 0.0% · NAZARIO ALVARADO

MIGUEL'S BELLE (USA) (Koşmaz) (6) is the pick: model 12% against a 0% pool share, 9 runs of US form on file, edge +11.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

TIMELY REWARD (USA) (7) (1) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6MIGUEL'S BELLE (USA)REYLU GUTIERREZ · MICHAEL V. SIMONE · draw 6 · pool — · market #1scr#4
  2. 1TIMELY REWARD (USA) (7)NAZARIO ALVARADO · ILMAR LOAIZA · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2CINNAMON SUGAR (USA) (1)OLAF HERNANDEZ · LUIS GUTIERREZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3CAROL SAID NO (USA) (6)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · RALPH D'ALESSANDRO · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4OPEN SOUL AUTISM (USA) (3)LUIS E. PEREZ · DAVID OYOLA · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5MISS STONES (USA) (2)OSCAR GOMEZ · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7DIVA BANKER (USA) (5)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · DAVID OYOLA · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 8LADY SERENITY (USA) (4)J. M. ROHENA · CHRIS J. ENGLEHART · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 8 · Finger Lakes · 8 runners

Usable
8¼f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
3The pickELDEST SON (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 11.4% · REYLU GUTIERREZ
4Next bestPROBABILITY (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 7.2% · CHELSEY KEISER

ELDEST SON (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) is the pick: model 11% against a 0% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge +11.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

PROBABILITY (USA) (Koşmaz) (4) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3ELDEST SON (USA)REYLU GUTIERREZ · MICHAEL V. SIMONE · draw 3 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 4PROBABILITY (USA)CHELSEY KEISER · AMELIA J. GREEN · draw 4 · pool — · market #2scr#5
  3. 1GUNNER BAY (USA) (5)JEREMIAS FLORES · RUDY R. RODRIGUEZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 2GLOBES (USA) (4)REYLU GUTIEREZ · ILMAR LOAIZA · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 5ZATARA (USA) (1)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · JON G. ARNETT · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6BURN NOTICE (USA) (6)OSCAR GOMEZ · MICHAEL S. FERRARO · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7KING'S LEAP (USA) (2)LUIS E. PEREZ · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 8PASSIONED (CAN) (3)KEIBER J. COA · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

Usable
8¼f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
7The pickCRAZY SEXY COOL (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 8.4% · ALEXANDER CRISPIN
8Next bestRUMORS ARE FLYING (USA) (1)pool 0% · model 0.0% · ALBERTO BURGOS

CRAZY SEXY COOL (USA) (Koşmaz) (7) is the pick: model 8% against a 0% pool share, 10 runs of US form on file, edge +8.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

RUMORS ARE FLYING (USA) (1) (8) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7CRAZY SEXY COOL (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 7 · pool — · market #1scr#6
  2. 8RUMORS ARE FLYING (USA) (1)ALBERTO BURGOS · ROBERT E. DOBBS, JR. · draw 8 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2A LONG WINTERS NAP (USA) (2)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · ROBERT E. DOBBS, JR. · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 5DELCAP ALICE (USA) (3)VICTOR LARA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 5 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4HIGHER WISH (USA) (7)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 3STAYMISTYFORME (USA) (4)ORLANDO MOJICA · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 6SARAH'S SMILES (USA) (5)ALEX ACHARD · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 1SECRET VOW (USA) (6)ANDRES P. ULLOA · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 1 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 6 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Allowance, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
2The pickJOLLY JUSTICE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 12.8% · ALBERTO BURGOS
5Next bestSTANKA (USA) (1)pool 0% · model 0.0% · JOSEPH D. RAMOS

JOLLY JUSTICE (USA) (Koşmaz) (2) is the pick: model 13% against a 0% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge +12.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

STANKA (USA) (1) (5) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2JOLLY JUSTICE (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 2 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 5STANKA (USA) (1)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 5 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 1SPIRITED ANNE (USA) (5)WALTER A. RODRIGUEZ · LARRY RIVELLI · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 4VORTEX EXPRESS (USA) (2)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · RON D. HERRELL · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 6YOTOWIN (USA) (3)SANTO SANJUR · ROGELIO LABRA · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 3GIO'S BABY GIRL (USA) (4)BRODY MARTINEZ · RON D. HERRELL · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99

Race 3 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
2The pickSOUND OF VICTORY (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 9.6% · BRODY MARTINEZ
7Next bestPURDY DARN GOOD (USA) (5)pool 0% · model 0.0% · RODNEY A. PRESCOTT

SOUND OF VICTORY (USA) (Koşmaz) (2) is the pick: model 10% against a 0% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +9.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

PURDY DARN GOOD (USA) (5) (7) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2SOUND OF VICTORY (USA)BRODY MARTINEZ · ARMANDO HERNANDEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #1scr#5
  2. 7PURDY DARN GOOD (USA) (5)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 7 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 4SPEED BIAS (USA) (3)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 4 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 6BOITANO (USA) (7)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 6 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 5JACK SIXPACK (USA) (6)ANGEL ORTEGA STANLEY · PAT CLAY · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 8KING OF KENTUCKY (USA) (2)YARMARIE L. CORREA · CLAUDE L. BROWNFIELD III · draw 8 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 3MOWINS (USA) (1)EVIN A. ROMAN · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 1RICH KINGDOM (USA) (4)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · DONNA RILEY · draw 1 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 4 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 14 runners

NO POOL YET
8½f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 14 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5ZACH (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · JOHN HARAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 4PROFESSOR HIGGINS (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · HUTCH HOLSAPPLE · draw 4 · pool — · market #2scr#4
  3. 13HENRY THE HANK (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · JONATHAN NANCE · draw 13 · pool — · market #3scr#5
  4. 14MOOGIE SON (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · AGUSTIN GONZALEZ, JR. · draw 14 · pool — · market #4scr#8
  5. 6GAGLIARDI (USA)GUILLERMO RODRIGUEZ · RICHARD ESTVANKO · draw 6 · pool — · market #5scr#9
  6. 3DISCOMBOBULAATOR (USA)ORLANDO BOCACHICA · EDUARDO CARAMORI · draw 3 · pool — · market #6scr#10
  7. 1POOL GUY (USA)IRVING MONCADA · TOMMY HUMPHRIES · draw 1 · pool — · market #7scr#11
  8. 8JUANITA'S EXPRESS (USA)RAFAEL MOJICA, JR. · JOSEPH DEEGAN · draw 8 · pool — · market #8scr#12
  9. 2PERSONAL CREED (USA)YARMARIE L. CORREA · CLAUDE L. BROWNFIELD III · draw 2 · pool — · market #9scr#14
  10. 7ONORE (USA) (3)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RICHARD ESTVANKO · draw 7 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 10J P HELLISH (USA) (4)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · THOMAS D. FOLEY · draw 10 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 11GREAT SWORD (USA) (1)IRVING MONCADA · MANNY PEREZ · draw 11 · pool — · market #12—#99
  13. 12TIVERTON (GB) (2)KEVIN J. JIMENEZ · KARYN WITTEK · draw 12 · pool — · market #13—#99
  14. 9WICKED SUPRISE (USA) (5)VICTOR LARA · CHERYL WINEBAUGH · draw 9 · pool — · market #14—#99

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 13 runners

NO POOL YET
5f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 3 of 13 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 13CLUBBIN TONIGHT (USA)SANTO SANJUR · JAMES M. WATKINS · draw 13 · pool — · market #1scr#2
  2. 3KIMBERLY'S PASSION (USA)IRVING MONCADA · RENE CAZARES, JR. · draw 3 · pool — · market #2scr#5
  3. 2ZARZUELA (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · CAIO CARAMORI · draw 2 · pool — · market #3scr#6
  4. 12LADY MAXIMUM (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · SERGIO DON JUAN · draw 12 · pool — · market #4scr#8
  5. 1BABY BLUE SKYER (USA)ALBIN JIMENEZ · CHRISTOPHER DAVIS · draw 1 · pool — · market #5scr#9
  6. 5LA CHARRITA (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 5 · pool — · market #6scr#10
  7. 11BACK BACK BACK (USA) (1)ANGEL ORTEGA STANLEY · PAT CLAY · draw 11 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 6PTICHKA (USA) (4)VICTOR LARA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 4NEWPORT LADY (USA) (6)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 4 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 8YALINA (USA) (2)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ISRAEL ACEVEDO · draw 8 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 10IT ALL MAKES CENTS (USA) (5)AMIR MENDOZA · JON JAZDZEWSKI · draw 10 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 7DESTINED TO WIN (USA) (3)EVIN A. ROMAN · AGUSTIN GONZALEZ, JR. · draw 7 · pool — · market #12—#99
  13. 9MODERN OPTION (USA) (7)BRODY MARTINEZ · R. TERRY YOUNG · draw 9 · pool — · market #13—#99

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4ORNERY ANGEL (USA)ALEXANDER BENDEZU · MAXIMINO QUINONEZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#2
  2. 5LADY OF SKY (USA)RAFAEL MOJICA, JR. · GEORGE S. BUSH · draw 5 · pool — · market #2—#5
  3. 3BOTOX KATIE (USA)SANTO SANJUR · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 3 · pool — · market #3scr#7
  4. 7CAMPAIGN PROMISES (USA) (1)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 2MISS SAIPAN (USA) (5)REYNIER ARRIETA · JOEL MARTINEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6LALILY (USA) (2)ALBERTO BURGOS · JACK L. HANCOCK · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 8INTO GOLDEN ROAD (USA) (4)VICTOR LARA · ARTHUR A. COONTZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 1PATTY'S GIRL (USA) (3)YARMARIE L. CORREA · REY HERNANDEZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 14 runners

Usable
8¼f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 14 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
8The pickHIGH STREET PIZZAZ (USA)pool 26% · model 17.8% · ADAM BESCHIZZA
3Next bestAMANI'S MUSIC (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 6.3% · AMIR MENDOZA
9At a priceQUEEN OF CAIRO (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 5.7% · DYLAN MACHADO

HIGH STREET PIZZAZ (USA) (8) is the pick: model 18% against a 26% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge -8.2 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

AMANI'S MUSIC (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, QUEEN OF CAIRO (USA) (Koşmaz) (9) carries +5.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 8HIGH STREET PIZZAZ (USA)ADAM BESCHIZZA · JOE SHARP · draw 8 · pool 26% · market #1-8.2#2
  2. 3AMANI'S MUSIC (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 3 · pool — · market #3scr#4
  3. 1INTERVIEW (USA)ALEX ACHARD · RILEY MOTT · draw 1 · pool — · market #4scr#5
  4. 9QUEEN OF CAIRO (USA)DYLAN MACHADO · ETHAN W. WEST · draw 9 · pool — · market #5scr#6
  5. 4ALQAB (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · ANDREW MCKEEVER · draw 4 · pool — · market #6scr#7
  6. 10CAFE EMBRACE (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 10 · pool — · market #7scr#8
  7. 11SONO BELLA (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · BRENDAN P. WALSH · draw 11 · pool — · market #8scr#9
  8. 12PINPOINTED (USA)JANE ELLIOTT · EOIN G. HARTY · draw 12 · pool — · market #9scr#11
  9. 13MOON LITE GIRL (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · JAMES EGBERT · draw 13 · pool — · market #10scr#12
  10. 6ROYAL SCARLETT (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · JOSE CAZARES · draw 6 · pool 5% · market #2-4.3#14
  11. 14ELGHEED (USA) (1)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · BRAD H. COX · draw 14 · pool — · market #11+0.0#99
  12. 7SERENA'S SURPRISE (USA) (2)SANTO SANJUR · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 7 · pool — · market #12+0.0#99
  13. 5STELLA'S POTION (USA) (4)ALEX ACHARD · JOE SHARP · draw 5 · pool — · market #13+0.0#99
  14. 2PARTY TO THE MAX (USA) (3)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · JUSTIN WOJCZYNSKI · draw 2 · pool — · market #14+0.0#99

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

Thin form
8¼f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
6The pickMUNNY TOWN (USA)pool 45% · model 33.6% · YARMARIE L. CORREA
9Next bestPEOPLE FORCE (USA)pool 13% · model 13.2% · BRODY MARTINEZ
5At a priceSHADY MCGEE (IRE) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 8.5% · JAVIER DIEGO

MUNNY TOWN (USA) (6) is the pick: model 34% against a 45% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -11.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

PEOPLE FORCE (USA) (9) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

For something at a price, SHADY MCGEE (IRE) (Koşmaz) (5) carries +8.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6MUNNY TOWN (USA)YARMARIE L. CORREA · YONI R. ORANTES · draw 6 · pool 45% · market #1-11.9#1
  2. 9PEOPLE FORCE (USA)BRODY MARTINEZ · HEATHER IRION · draw 9 · pool 13% · market #2+0.1#2
  3. 10BRAMBLE BLAZE (USA)GUILLERMO RODRIGUEZ · RICHARD ESTVANKO · draw 10 · pool 11% · market #3+1.4#3
  4. 8BIG COMMERCE (USA)ANGEL ORTEGA STANLEY · HEATHER IRION · draw 8 · pool 8% · market #4+1.5#4
  5. 5SHADY MCGEE (IRE)JAVIER DIEGO · RHONDA THURMAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #10scr#5
  6. 7FROSTY THE SOLDIER (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · THOMAS D. FOLEY · draw 7 · pool 7% · market #5-0.3#6
  7. 2DOUBLE THUNDER (USA)SANTO SANJUR · R. TERRY YOUNG · draw 2 · pool 6% · market #6-0.5#7
  8. 3GRAND ILLUSION (USA)ALEXANDER BENDEZU · MAXIMINO QUINONEZ · draw 3 · pool 4% · market #7+1.4#8
  9. 1NEW YEAR SURPRISE (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · AGUSTIN GONZALEZ, JR. · draw 1 · pool 3% · market #8-0.3#9
  10. 4SPAN (USA)HAROLD JOSEPH ORTEGA · ANTHONY BLEA III · draw 4 · pool 2% · market #9+0.1#10

Race 9 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Allowance, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
8The pickINDIANA SMOKE SHOW (USA)pool 19% · model 20.9% · IRVING MONCADA
2Next bestINNISFREE PRAYER (USA)pool 19% · model 19.9% · AMIR MENDOZA
6At a priceWOSIE'S PROMISE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 7.2% · SANTO SANJUR

INDIANA SMOKE SHOW (USA) (8) is the pick: model 21% against a 19% pool share, 10 runs of US form on file, edge +2.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

INNISFREE PRAYER (USA) (2) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, WOSIE'S PROMISE (USA) (Koşmaz) (6) carries +7.2 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 8INDIANA SMOKE SHOW (USA)IRVING MONCADA · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 8 · pool 19% · market #1+2.1#1
  2. 2INNISFREE PRAYER (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 2 · pool 19% · market #2+1.1#2
  3. 9SHE'S A WHIRLWIND (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 9 · pool 17% · market #3-1.6#3
  4. 3CLEAN GETAWAY (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 3 · pool 17% · market #4-1.8#4
  5. 7BEBECITA (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · MARTIN REYES · draw 7 · pool 13% · market #5-2.3#5
  6. 6WOSIE'S PROMISE (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 6 · pool — · market #9scr#6
  7. 5PARTY IN THE CLUB (USA)BRODY MARTINEZ · DEVARUS DOUGLASS · draw 5 · pool 8% · market #6-1.6#7
  8. 4TIMELESS JUSTICE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · CHAZ RECHY · draw 4 · pool 4% · market #7-1.5#8
  9. 1RUNWAY SHOWSTOPPER (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · JOHN HARAN · draw 1 · pool 4% · market #8-1.7#9

Race 4 · Mahoning Valley · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4EMERALD EYES (USA)KEVIN GONZALEZ · FERNANDO SILVA · draw 4 · pool — · market #1scr#7
  2. 1POP'S GIRL (USA) (7)ANGEL I. DIAZ · LARRY E. SMITH · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2HOLIDAY MUSICAL (USA) (6)SARA HESS · NANCY L. ADAMS · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3RENEWED (USA) (3)RICARDO FELICIANO · JEVON D. CRUMLEY · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5SMARTASSET (USA) (5)MAURO CEDILLO · ROBERT C. CLINE · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6MOODY RIVER (USA) (4)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · RICHARD ZIELINSKI · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7FORTHELOVEOFBONNIE (USA) (2)JOSE A. BRACHO · JUSTIN RADOSEVICH · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8TIER ONES LEGACY (USA) (1)HUMBERTO HALDAR · JEFF FLETCHER · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 5 · Mahoning Valley · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4TOO MUCH TUESDAY (USA)ALEXANDER BENDEZU · JAMES M. WATKINS · draw 4 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 2MAGIC PALACE (USA)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · RAQUEL A. CASTRO · draw 2 · pool — · market #2scr#6
  3. 7BLAZING ZENNA (USA)ANGEL I. DIAZ · JOSEPH P. MAHAN · draw 7 · pool — · market #3scr#7
  4. 9CRACKLE (USA)HUMBERTO HALDAR · MARY L. HURLEY · draw 9 · pool — · market #4scr#9
  5. 1LUBU (USA) (4)RICARDO FELICIANO · JEVON D. CRUMLEY · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 3WICCA WISDOM (USA) (1)JOSE A. BRACHO · JOHANNA URIETA · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 5RIGHT TRAPPE (USA) (3)LUIS RAUL RIVERA · MICHAEL L. RONE · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 6SACRED CONNECTION (USA) (5)T. D. HOUGHTON · RICARDO BAILEY · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 8MALI BALI (USA) (2)DAVID J. HALDAR · SAUL M. MORALES · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 7 · Mahoning Valley · 8 runners

Thin form
6f Dirt · Allowance, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
6The pickMY KINDA PARTY (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 11.1% · LUIS NEGRON
7Next bestHOT COCOA (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 9.1% · DESHAWN L. PARKER

MY KINDA PARTY (USA) (Koşmaz) (6) is the pick: model 11% against a 0% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +11.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

HOT COCOA (USA) (Koşmaz) (7) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6MY KINDA PARTY (USA)LUIS NEGRON · NESTOR R. RIVERA · draw 6 · pool — · market #1scr#5
  2. 7HOT COCOA (USA)DESHAWN L. PARKER · JAY P. BERNARDINI · draw 7 · pool — · market #2scr#6
  3. 1STRIKING LADY (USA) (3)JASON SIMPSON · RICARDO BAILEY · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 2CINDERBELLA (USA) (5)BRANDON TAPARA · JAY P. BERNARDINI · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 3ILLUMINATE (USA) (2)LAUREANO SOSA · TIMOTHY E. HAMM · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 4TIPSY TULIP (USA) (4)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · NESTOR R. RIVERA · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 5COLORYOUREGGS (USA) (1)VICTOR R. FERNANDEZ · ROBERT C. CLINE · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 8SUSHI Q (USA) (6)DAVID J. HALDAR · SAUL M. MORALES · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 8 · Mahoning Valley · 11 runners

Thin form
6f Dirt · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 11 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
10The pickWATCH AND WAGER (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 7.7% · CHELSEY KEISER
1Next bestBUCKEYE MIKE (USA) (6)pool 0% · model 0.0% · KEVIN GONZALEZ

WATCH AND WAGER (USA) (Koşmaz) (10) is the pick: model 8% against a 0% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +7.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

BUCKEYE MIKE (USA) (6) (1) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 10WATCH AND WAGER (USA)CHELSEY KEISER · RICHARD ZIELINSKI · draw 10 · pool — · market #1scr#4
  2. 1BUCKEYE MIKE (USA) (6)KEVIN GONZALEZ · FERNANDO SILVA · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2LUCKY JUULZ (USA) (2)LUIS TAPARA · JULIA FLICK · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3QUESTIONABLE EVENT (USA) (1)JASON SIMPSON · KRISTINA M. TUMBLIN · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4STANLEY'S STARS (USA) (10)VICTOR R. FERNANDEZ · TINA CASALINOVA · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5RIVERS OF WEALTH (USA) (4)ELIJAH GREENIDGE · RODNEY C. FAULKNER · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 6RIPMAN (USA) (3)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · RICHARD ZIELINSKI · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 7EL MEXICANO (USA) (5)ANGEL I. DIAZ · RODNEY C. FAULKNER · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 8DYNAMIC GIFT (USA) (7)LAUREANO SOSA · HUGO ANDRADE · draw 8 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99
  10. 9MOBIL DREAM STAR (USA) (9)JOE STOKES · DAVID ST. CLAIR · draw 9 · pool — · market #10+0.0#99
  11. 11MY PAISAN (USA) (8)RICARDO FELICIANO · TINA CASALINOVA · draw 11 · pool — · market #11+0.0#99

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Penn National (0.00 runs/horse) · Charles Town (0.00 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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