Race 7 · Philadelphiapool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 5CHIQUITA'S WAY (KY)+0.140% · 40%
  2. 4PRAYED FOR GIRL (KY)+3.119% · 16%
  3. 2MIDNIGHT FLIGHT (KY)-3.110% · 13%
  4. 1DALE (KY)-3.410% · 13%
  5. 8ENDLESS GLOW (KY)+1.49% · 8%
  6. 7SHARE SUCCESS (MD)+1.36% · 5%
  7. 6MEDIUM COOL (KY)+0.54% · 3%
CHIQUITA'S WAY (KY) is the pick: model 40% against a 40% pool share · verdict ↓

Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Philadelphia picks — Mon 5 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

25 races today · 10 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Mon 5 Oct 2026 · 3 tracks7 usable of 25 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Mon 05 Oct 2026, 13:45 ET · permalink

11 of 25 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Mon 5 Oct 2026

25 races across Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Philadelphia. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners

Usable
8½f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
1The pickINTERSTATE (USA)pool 6% · model 5.4% · JEREMIAS FLORES
5Next bestBUCK WILD (USA)pool 5% · model 5.4% · WLADIMIR RENGIFO
Exacta box153Trifecta box153Win1

INTERSTATE (USA) (1) is the pick: model 5% against a 6% pool share, 11 runs of US form on file, edge -0.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

BUCK WILD (USA) (5) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1INTERSTATE (USA)JEREMIAS FLORES · ANGEL DIAZ-VALDEZ · draw 1 · pool 6% · market #1-0.7#5
  2. 5BUCK WILD (USA)WLADIMIR RENGIFO · DEWIGHT J. WADAMS · draw 5 · pool 5% · market #2+0.3#6
  3. 3RINGGOOD (USA)STEVEN FRET · BRENT BOND · draw 3 · pool 2% · market #3+0.2#7
  4. 2ACTION SEEKER (USA) (3)KEIBER J. COA · JON G. ARNETT · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4REVIVALISM (USA) (4)KEVIN NAVARRO · JONATHAN B. BUCKLEY · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6STREET COP OFFICER (USA) (2)JACQUELINE A. DAVIS · EDUARDO MAVER, JR. · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7STJAMES (USA) (1)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · RACHEL SELLS · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 2 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
7The pickGEMELLO (USA)pool 9% · model 11.4% · OLAF HERNANDEZ
4Next bestSOLO FLIGHT (USA)pool 3% · model 4.9% · JOSE VENTURA
Exacta box743Trifecta box743Win7

GEMELLO (USA) (7) is the pick: model 11% against a 9% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +2.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SOLO FLIGHT (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7GEMELLO (USA)OLAF HERNANDEZ · MICHAEL S. FERRARO · draw 7 · pool 9% · market #1+2.4#3
  2. 4SOLO FLIGHT (USA)JOSE VENTURA · RALPH D'ALESSANDRO · draw 4 · pool 3% · market #2+1.9#6
  3. 3CENTRAL DREAM (USA)BEN S. JOSEPH · MATTHEW CLARKE · draw 3 · pool 2% · market #3+0.4#7
  4. 1BARGAIN PURCHASE (USA) (3)JOSE BAEZ · DANA SAUL · draw 1 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 2KING SOLOMON (USA) (2)LUIS E. PEREZ · RALPH D'ALESSANDRO · draw 2 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5COLLEGE HUNK (USA) (4)WLADIMIR RENGIFO · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 6CONCRETE KID (USA) (1)OSCAR GOMEZ · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 3 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
8¼f Dirt · Maiden · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5SERRA (USA)LUIS E. PEREZ · MICHAEL S. FERRARO · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1SHAKEITFORTHEBIRD (USA)KEIBER J. COA · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4STRIKER JOE (USA)OLAF HERNANDEZ · MICHAEL S. FERRARO · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 3MR BALDY (USA)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · RONALD BREED, JR. · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 7MO CURLS (USA)REYLU GUTIERREZ · RUDY R. RODRIGUEZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2FINES CREEK (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 6BABY MEANIE (USA)CHRISTOPHER ELLIOTT · RALPH D'ALESSANDRO · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 4 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 4 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7CADILLAC MARY (USA)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · JEREMIAH C. ENGLEHART · draw 7 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1AUTHENTIC GINI (USA)LUIS E. PEREZ · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5IRON HALL (USA)J. M. ROHENA · JEREMIAH C. ENGLEHART · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 6SPLIT THE BLANKET (USA)SHAUN BRIDGMOHAN · MELANIE GIDDINGS · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 4MID AGE RAGE (USA)JACQUELINE A. DAVIS · EDUARDO CARAMORI · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2TURBO GRAY (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · RALPH D'ALESSANDRO · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 3MISS MONEY PANTS (USA)REYLU GUTIERREZ · RUDY R. RODRIGUEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 5 · Finger Lakes · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3TY TY ROSE (USA)LUIS E. PEREZ · MICHAEL S. FERRARO · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 6DIALIN' DREAMS (USA)CHRISTOPHER ELLIOTT · ROBERT N. FALCONE, JR. · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 10GAME AND BLUE (USA) (Koşmaz)OSCAR GOMEZ · RONALD BREED, JR. · draw 10 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2CELESLIA (USA)JEREMIAS FLORES · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 8FREE SPIN KIM (USA)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · RONALD BREED, JR. · draw 8 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 1LOOKIE HERE (USA)KEIBER J. COA · BRUCE N. LEVINE · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 9THAT'S AMORE (USA)JACQUELINE A. DAVIS · NICHOLAS P. ZITO · draw 9 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 7ALACRITY (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · MATTHEW CLARKE · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 4MIEL ET CITRON (USA)SHAUN BRIDGMOHAN · DOUGLAS J. SEYLER · draw 4 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 5BOCAGE BELLE (USA)JOSE VENTURA · EDUARDO MAVER, JR. · draw 5 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 6 · Finger Lakes · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 4 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4STICKY SITUATION (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · LINDA RICE · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 9MO COFFEE (USA)REYLU GUTIERREZ · RUDY R. RODRIGUEZ · draw 9 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6PLAYINMINDGAMES (USA)LUIS E. PEREZ · MICHAEL S. FERRARO · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2ROCKIN RED (USA)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · JEREMIAH C. ENGLEHART · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3BARNA BOY (USA)JOEL CRUZ · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 8UNEVEN NUMBERS (USA)NAZARIO ALVARADO · LINDA K. DIXON · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7MR RIGATONI (USA)CHRISTOPHER ELLIOTT · ILKAY KANTARMACI · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 1BAJAN SUGAR (USA)JACQUELINE A. DAVIS · LINDA K. DIXON · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 5REGAL ENVOY (USA)CHRIS RUSSELL · JACQUELINE FALK · draw 5 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 7 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
4The pickRACHEL'S ROCK (USA)pool 48% · model 33.1% · EMANUEL DE DIEGO
6Next bestHIDDEN VASE (USA)pool 20% · model 23.1% · KEIBER J. COA
7At a priceLINCOLNVILLE BEACH (USA)pool 7% · model 12.4% · J. M. ROHENA
Exacta box461Trifecta box4617Win4

RACHEL'S ROCK (USA) (4) is the pick: model 33% against a 48% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -14.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

HIDDEN VASE (USA) (6) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, LINCOLNVILLE BEACH (USA) (7) carries +5.4 points of edge from a 7% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4RACHEL'S ROCK (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · RACHEL SELLS · draw 4 · pool 48% · market #1-14.9#1
  2. 6HIDDEN VASE (USA)KEIBER J. COA · JON G. ARNETT · draw 6 · pool 20% · market #2+3.1#2
  3. 1CAROL SAID NO (USA)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · RALPH D'ALESSANDRO · draw 1 · pool 13% · market #3+2.9#3
  4. 7LINCOLNVILLE BEACH (USA)J. M. ROHENA · CHRIS J. ENGLEHART · draw 7 · pool 7% · market #5+5.4#4
  5. 5INOUAINTALKINTOME (USA)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · JOSE MERCED · draw 5 · pool 9% · market #4+0.3#5
  6. 3CELESTIAL EXPRESS (USA) (Koşmaz)SHAUN BRIDGMOHAN · DOUGLAS J. SEYLER · draw 3 · pool 2% · market #6+1.6#6
  7. 2BAYOU MELODY (USA)BEN S. JOSEPH · ARCADIO LOPEZ · draw 2 · pool 1% · market #7+1.6#7

Race 8 · Finger Lakes · 10 runners

Thin form
6f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
7The pickROCK STEADY BABE (USA)pool 45% · model 36.1% · ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE
4Next bestREADY ROSIE JANE (USA)pool 20% · model 18.5% · KEIBER J. COA
Exacta box742Trifecta box742Win7

ROCK STEADY BABE (USA) (7) is the pick: model 36% against a 45% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge -8.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

READY ROSIE JANE (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7ROCK STEADY BABE (USA)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · CHARLTON BAKER · draw 7 · pool 45% · market #1-8.5#1
  2. 4READY ROSIE JANE (USA)KEIBER J. COA · NICHOLAS P. ZITO · draw 4 · pool 20% · market #2-1.3#2
  3. 2SPIRIT FORWARD (USA)KEVIN NAVARRO · JONATHAN B. BUCKLEY · draw 2 · pool 12% · market #3+3.2#3
  4. 8SHAYAPRAYER (USA)JACQUELINE A. DAVIS · RONALD BREED, JR. · draw 8 · pool 7% · market #4-0.2#4
  5. 6CAMARTINA (USA)REYLU GUTIERREZ · H. JAMES BOND · draw 6 · pool 4% · market #5+1.1#5
  6. 9BEE DARING (USA)STEVEN FRET · KATLYNN GUTTERSON · draw 9 · pool 4% · market #6+1.0#6
  7. 1RIYAH AL NIL (USA)SHAUN BRIDGMOHAN · DOUGLAS J. SEYLER · draw 1 · pool 4% · market #7+0.7#7
  8. 10MAJORSDREAMCOMETRU (USA)JEREMIAS FLORES · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 10 · pool 2% · market #8+1.6#8
  9. 5DREW'S CANDY (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · JAMES S. ACQUILANO · draw 5 · pool 2% · market #9+1.2#9
  10. 3MY GIRL CARLY (USA) (Koşmaz)CHRIS RUSSELL · STEPHEN P. UBBINK · draw 3 · pool 1% · market #10+1.0#10

Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

Blind
5½f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 3 of 8 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 8CRYPTO KING (USA)ALEX ACHARD · RILEY MOTT · draw 8 · pool 29% · market #1—#1
  2. 2UNCLE WITH MONEY (USA)SANTO SANJUR · REY HERNANDEZ · draw 2 · pool 24% · market #2—#2
  3. 1GOLD PAN SAM (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 1 · pool 14% · market #3—#3
  4. 3SKIP N SCOOT (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 3 · pool 10% · market #5—#4
  5. 4GO JUNIOR GO (USA)LUIS FUENMAYOR · CARLOS MUNOZ · draw 4 · pool 11% · market #4—#5
  6. 5CARO'S PATRIOT (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · JACK L. HANCOCK · draw 5 · pool 6% · market #6—#6
  7. 6THERETHEYGO (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · SARAH E. SHAFFER · draw 6 · pool 3% · market #7—#7
  8. 7KNISS (USA)JAMES GRAHAM · J. KEITH DESORMEAUX · draw 7 · pool 3% · market #8—#8

Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 7 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
3The pickFILLY NAMED BRUZZ (USA)pool 35% · model 33.0% · EVIN A. ROMAN
7Next bestTURBO LADY (USA)pool 17% · model 21.2% · AMIR MENDOZA
Exacta box371Trifecta box371Win3

FILLY NAMED BRUZZ (USA) (3) is the pick: model 33% against a 35% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -2.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

TURBO LADY (USA) (7) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3FILLY NAMED BRUZZ (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · YONI R. ORANTES · draw 3 · pool 35% · market #1-2.4#1
  2. 7TURBO LADY (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 7 · pool 17% · market #3+4.0#2
  3. 1BEBECITA (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · MARTIN REYES · draw 1 · pool 19% · market #2-2.4#3
  4. 2SARAH'S SMILES (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 2 · pool 12% · market #4-0.2#4
  5. 6APPEAZING (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · JOHN HARAN · draw 6 · pool 8% · market #5+0.2#5
  6. 4SECRET VOW (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 4 · pool 5% · market #6+0.5#6
  7. 5HONEY'S ON FIRE (USA)ALEX ACHARD · BONNIE PITTMAN · draw 5 · pool 3% · market #7+0.2#7

Race 3 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
8¼f Dirt · Maiden · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2TA TA TODAY JUNIOR (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 2 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 7RICH LOVER (USA) (Koşmaz)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · DONNA RILEY · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6INDY FLYER (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANTHONY E. GUIDA · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1OFFICER GAMBILL (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · SHAWNA MARTIN · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5DANOWOODY STYLE (USA)JANE ELLIOTT · MICHAEL P. PORTER · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 4DOTTIES BLUE MONEY (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · DEVARUS DOUGLASS · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 3TAPITOUTONSUNDAY (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 4 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5EL PAYASITO (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1RIOJA ALTA (USA)JOSHUA MORALES · ANTHONY F. CUNNINGHAM · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 2IMMINENT FORECAST (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · JOHN HARAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 6UNBRIDLED VALOR (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · ISRAEL J. GARCIA · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 8SATHWIK (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · DEVARUS DOUGLASS · draw 8 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 7PRAY FOR VICTORY (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · KENIA HERNANDEZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 4NOTHINGBUTJUSTICE (USA)SANTO SANJUR · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 3BOSS JUSTICE (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · KENIA HERNANDEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #8—#8

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 11 runners

NO POOL YET
5f Turf · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 11 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1TOODELIRIOUS (IRE)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · CODY W. AXMAKER · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4UNRELENTING (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · WILLIAM D. COWANS · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 9AUSTIN HIGH (USA)IRVING MONCADA · THOMAS DRURY, JR. · draw 9 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 10TIZMEONEMORETIME (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · OMAR RAZVI · draw 10 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3TUMBLEWEED QUEEN (USA)SUMMER PAULY · ED MOGER, JR. · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 8PRINCESS BUTTERCUP (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · SARAH E. SHAFFER · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 2SUNNY'S FLAME (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · GENNADI DOROCHENKO · draw 2 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 11SHOW PAM (USA)HAROLD JOSEPH ORTEGA · SHANE CHILDERS · draw 11 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 6DOWNTOWNRITABROWN (USA)DECLAN CANNON · THOMAS MOLLOY · draw 6 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 5DAISY MAE ATTACK (USA)VICTOR LARA · SHANE CHILDERS · draw 5 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 7HARPER BRIANA (USA) (Koşmaz)EVIN A. ROMAN · AMY NESBITT · draw 7 · pool — · market #11—#11

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 14 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 2 of 14 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 11MAPPING (USA)AXEL CONCEPCION · WILLIAM WALDEN · draw 11 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4BIT TIPSY (USA) (Koşmaz)MITCHELL MURRILL · EDUARDO CARAMORI · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 7HOT BODY (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ROBERTINO DIODORO · draw 7 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 12NEWPORT LADY (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 12 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 2SAMI MICHAL (USA)JARETH LOVEBERRY · LARRY RIVELLI · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 1ANGELS SING (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 6FINALLY NO DRAMA (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · MICHAEL J. MAKER · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 13CARMEL (USA)ALEX ACHARD · RILEY MOTT · draw 13 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 5FLYER FLY (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · RILEY MOTT · draw 5 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 3UNION SPIRIT (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · MARK SIMMS, JR. · draw 3 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 14RAINBOW LIGHTNING (USA) (Koşmaz)ALBERTO BURGOS · BRENDAN P. WALSH · draw 14 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 8FRESHAIR (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · BRIAN WALTZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 9EPIC FURY (USA)DANNY SHEEHY · BRENDAN P. WALSH · draw 9 · pool — · market #13—#13
  14. 10OH BONITA (USA) (Koşmaz)AGUSTIN GOMEZ · CIRILO GOROSTIETA · draw 10 · pool — · market #14—#14

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 15 runners

Usable
8½f Turf · Allowance, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 13 of 15 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
5The pickTARSHEA (IRE)pool 33% · model 29.1% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
2Next bestFORGET ABOUT YOU (IRE)pool 19% · model 14.5% · ALBERTO BURGOS
11At a priceDREAMING OF JOY (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 5.8% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
Exacta box524Trifecta box52411Win5

TARSHEA (IRE) (5) is the pick: model 29% against a 33% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge -4.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

FORGET ABOUT YOU (IRE) (2) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, DREAMING OF JOY (USA) (Koşmaz) (11) carries +5.8 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5TARSHEA (IRE)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · BRAD H. COX · draw 5 · pool 33% · market #1-4.3#1
  2. 2FORGET ABOUT YOU (IRE)ALBERTO BURGOS · BRENDAN P. WALSH · draw 2 · pool 19% · market #2-4.7#2
  3. 4NOSHAMETOHERGAME (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · EDDIE KENNEALLY · draw 4 · pool 8% · market #4-1.1#3
  4. 10MOON LAW (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · BRIAN WALTZ · draw 10 · pool 8% · market #5-1.2#4
  5. 6RHAPSODY IN MOTION (USA)DANNY SHEEHY · ANNA M. MEAH · draw 6 · pool 9% · market #3-3.0#5
  6. 11DREAMING OF JOY (USA) (Koşmaz)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · BRAD H. COX · draw 11 · pool — · market #12+5.8#6
  7. 15HAVANA RUM (USA) (Koşmaz)ALEX ACHARD · IAN R. WILKES · draw 15 · pool — · market #13+5.0#7
  8. 3LILMORECRAKEN (USA)MIGUEL FERNANDEZ · IAN R. WILKES · draw 3 · pool 6% · market #6-1.2#8
  9. 12LET'S GO BARBIE (USA) (Koşmaz)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 12 · pool — · market #14+4.8#9
  10. 7SHE'S HONED IN (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 7 · pool 5% · market #7-0.7#10
  11. 14SURPRENANT COCCA (USA) (Koşmaz)ALBIN JIMENEZ · CLAUDE L. BROWNFIELD III · draw 14 · pool — · market #15+4.2#11
  12. 8MAX (USA)JANE ELLIOTT · JIMMY CORRIGAN · draw 8 · pool 5% · market #8-2.3#12
  13. 9TEMPLE TEMPTRESS (USA)DYLAN MACHADO · ETHAN W. WEST · draw 9 · pool 3% · market #9-0.8#13
  14. 1MOTHER GREEN (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · BRIAN KNIPPENBERG · draw 1 · pool 2% · market #10-0.5#14
  15. 13HEART SPIN (USA) (Koşmaz)SANTO SANJUR · ANNA NAVARRETE · draw 13 · pool 1% · market #11-0.1#15

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 12 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 11 of 12 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
12The pickBIRKIN GIRL (USA)pool 35% · model 32.1% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
8Next bestMCKINZIE'S GLORY (USA)pool 18% · model 15.3% · JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR
11At a priceOAK ALLEY (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 5.1% · JOSEPH M. ROMERO
Exacta box1283Trifecta box128311Win12

BIRKIN GIRL (USA) (12) is the pick: model 32% against a 35% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge -2.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MCKINZIE'S GLORY (USA) (8) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, OAK ALLEY (USA) (Koşmaz) (11) carries +5.1 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 12BIRKIN GIRL (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 12 · pool 35% · market #1-2.5#1
  2. 8MCKINZIE'S GLORY (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · SARAH E. SHAFFER · draw 8 · pool 18% · market #2-2.5#2
  3. 3INSTILLED ZIP (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 3 · pool 16% · market #3-4.1#3
  4. 4SENORA D'ORO (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ROGELIO LABRA · draw 4 · pool 10% · market #4-0.6#4
  5. 2CAVATELLI (USA)ALEX ACHARD · ROGELIO LABRA · draw 2 · pool 6% · market #5+0.2#5
  6. 11OAK ALLEY (USA) (Koşmaz)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · RAYMOND J. PAQUETTE III · draw 11 · pool — · market #12+5.1#6
  7. 1BLAZING FREEDOM (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 1 · pool 4% · market #6+0.6#7
  8. 10MORE SWEETS (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · BRIAN WALTZ · draw 10 · pool 3% · market #7+0.9#8
  9. 9ROYALLY SASSY (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · CHRISTOPHER DAVIS · draw 9 · pool 3% · market #8+0.6#9
  10. 5DANCEWITHMEFIONA (USA)VICTOR LARA · STEVE FRIDLEY · draw 5 · pool 3% · market #9+0.5#10
  11. 6TIZ WINE TIME (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 6 · pool 2% · market #10+0.8#11
  12. 7GOLEXGO (USA) (Koşmaz)ALBIN JIMENEZ · JAMIE L. GRUBBS · draw 7 · pool 1% · market #11+1.0#12

Race 1 · Philadelphia · 8 runners

Blind
6½f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 8 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 6SWEETBITTERS (PA)JEAN AGUILAR · ROBERTO J ROSADO · draw 6 · pool 6% · market #1—#5
  2. 5CALL ME ALEX (PA)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · MARYA K MONTOYA · draw 5 · pool 6% · market #2—#6
  3. 7IMAGE OF THUNDER (PA)YAN RODRIGUEZ · JORGE DIAZ · draw 7 · pool 2% · market #3—#7
  4. 2PRINCESS DIVA (PA)ANGEL CASTILLO · ALAN BEDARD · draw 2 · pool 1% · market #4—#8
  5. 1PHILADELPHIA ROLL (KY) (2)JORGE A VARGAS, JR · ERNESTO PADILLA-PRECIADO · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 3NANZIG (KY) (4)JOEZER RANGEL · JACINTO SOLIS · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 4YO PHILLY (KY) (1)PACO LOPEZ · ERNESTO PADILLA-PRECIADO · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8COMMAND THE STARS (KY) (3)MYCHEL J SANCHEZ · STEVEN KREBS · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 2 · Philadelphia · 8 runners

Thin form
6½f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
3The pickCITY PANDA (KY)pool 11% · model 10.4% · JESUS M RIOS
8Next bestFIGHT FIERCELY (KY)pool 9% · model 9.2% · MAGGLIO SANCHEZ
Exacta box385Trifecta box385Win3

CITY PANDA (KY) (3) is the pick: model 10% against a 11% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge -0.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

FIGHT FIERCELY (KY) (8) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3CITY PANDA (KY)JESUS M RIOS · ALEJANDRO OLAIS MENDIETA · draw 3 · pool 11% · market #1-0.5#4
  2. 8FIGHT FIERCELY (KY)MAGGLIO SANCHEZ · ILIAS TAPSAS · draw 8 · pool 9% · market #2+0.3#5
  3. 5TIEMPO PERFECTO (MD)LUIS M OCASIO · TIMOTHY J SMYLIE · draw 5 · pool 5% · market #3-0.3#7
  4. 7BIAGIO (PA)CAMILA HARGROVE · JORGE DIAZ · draw 7 · pool 2% · market #4-0.1#8
  5. 1ALWAYS GAMBLING (KY) (4)ADAM BOWMAN · HAROLD WYNER · draw 1 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 2NICOLE'S KING (KY) (1)DEXTER HADDOCK · MIGUEL A RODRIGUEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 4LORD WINSALOT (PA) (2)JEAN AGUILAR · MIGUEL A RODRIGUEZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 6AMAZING WOO (FL) (3)ABNER ADORNO · KATHLEEN A DEMASI · draw 6 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 3 · Philadelphia · 7 runners

Blind
8¼f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 7 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 7REE NEE'S SIX (KY)ANGEL CASTILLO · HOWARD R BROWN, JR · draw 7 · pool 50% · market #1—#1
  2. 5UMBRAL (KY)DEXTER HADDOCK · SCOTT A LAKE · draw 5 · pool 11% · market #2—#3
  3. 2ZONING ORDER (ON)MAGGLIO SANCHEZ · SCOTT A LAKE · draw 2 · pool 7% · market #3—#5
  4. 1MARY'S REWARD (PA) (1)YAN RODRIGUEZ · JORGE DIAZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 3AMY MULE (KY) (2)LUIS M OCASIO · JOSE M SANTAELLA-CALDERON · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 4CENTER STAGE (KY) (4)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · RONALD J DANDY · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6WOW LUCKY (FL) (3)MYCHEL J SANCHEZ · HOWARD R BROWN, JR · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 4 · Philadelphia · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
6½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1CHAMBOURCIN (KY)MYCHEL J SANCHEZ · MICHAEL V PINO · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 6MY LITTLE WILDCAT (KY)KENDRY RIVERA · ELLIOTT SOTO-MARTINEZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5MOLLY'S A BULLET (NJ)RAMON F MOYA · ANTHONY R MARGOTTA, JR · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 3NOHAI (PA)LUIS M OCASIO · CARLOS E CABAN · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 2FLAMING EYES (KY)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · URIAH ST LEWIS · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 7MADDIE'S GARDEN (KY)CAMILA HARGROVE · CLARENCE B KING · draw 7 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 4IT'S A SHORE THING (MD)ANDY HERNANDEZ · MICHAEL M MOORE · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 5 · Philadelphia · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4VELVETEEN (KY)MYCHEL J SANCHEZ · BRUCE M KRAVETS · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3BULMA (MD)PACO LOPEZ · MIGUEL PENALOZA · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 8UNIONVILLE (KY) (Koşmaz)BRYAN L TORRES · ERNESTO PADILLA-PRECIADO · draw 8 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1INNER EXCELLENCE (PA)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · SCOTT A LAKE · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6GOTMISTYONTHEMIND (PA) (Koşmaz)ELISEO RUIZ · EDWARD J COLETTI, JR · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2COCOA NIMBUS (KY)NOEL HERMAN · JACINTO SOLIS · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 5MY LAST DIME (KY)SEBASTIAN ORELLANA · ELLIOTT SOTO-MARTINEZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 7ANGEL IN BLUE (NY)SILVESTRE GONZALEZ · KATHLEEN A DEMASI · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 10ANITA GLASSOFWINE (PA)DEXTER HADDOCK · ROBERTO J ROSADO · draw 10 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 9POM POM (FL)LUIS M OCASIO · MIGUEL A RODRIGUEZ · draw 9 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 6 · Philadelphia · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
6½f Dirt · Maiden · 3yo Thoroughbreds · 3 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 8QUAKER CITY (PA)MYCHEL J SANCHEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 8 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3ASSOCIATED (PA)BRYAN L TORRES · ERNESTO PADILLA-PRECIADO · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 7JOSEPH POTATO (PA)PACO LOPEZ · KATHLEEN A DEMASI · draw 7 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5EASY PICK (PA)JOSE A BATISTA · JOSE A GALLEGOS · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 4GLIDER INFANTRY (PA)FRANKIE PENNINGTON · MARYA K MONTOYA · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 9RAGATONY (PA)ANDREW WOLFSONT · KATHLEEN A DEMASI · draw 9 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 1RIGHTEOUS FELON (PA)SILVESTRE GONZALEZ · J GUADALUPE GUERRERO · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 6SAM'S GLORY (PA)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · ROBERT MOSCO · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 2UPTOWN FRANKIE B (PA) (Koşmaz)DEXTER HADDOCK · JUAN A POLANCO · draw 2 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 7 · Philadelphia · 8 runners

Usable
6½f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
5The pickCHIQUITA'S WAY (KY)pool 40% · model 40.1% · JORGE A VARGAS, JR
4Next bestPRAYED FOR GIRL (KY)pool 16% · model 19.1% · PACO LOPEZ
Exacta box542Trifecta box542Win5

CHIQUITA'S WAY (KY) (5) is the pick: model 40% against a 40% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +0.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

PRAYED FOR GIRL (KY) (4) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5CHIQUITA'S WAY (KY)JORGE A VARGAS, JR · ERNESTO PADILLA-PRECIADO · draw 5 · pool 40% · market #1+0.1#1
  2. 4PRAYED FOR GIRL (KY)PACO LOPEZ · ESTEBAN PADILLA · draw 4 · pool 16% · market #2+3.1#2
  3. 2MIDNIGHT FLIGHT (KY)LUIS M OCASIO · IRVING RODRIGUEZ · draw 2 · pool 13% · market #3-3.1#3
  4. 1DALE (KY)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · ROBERT MOSCO · draw 1 · pool 13% · market #4-3.4#4
  5. 8ENDLESS GLOW (KY)ABNER ADORNO · ERNESTO PADILLA-PRECIADO · draw 8 · pool 8% · market #5+1.4#5
  6. 7SHARE SUCCESS (MD)MYCHEL J SANCHEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 7 · pool 5% · market #6+1.3#6
  7. 6MEDIUM COOL (KY)ELISEO RUIZ · RUPERTO A PEREZ · draw 6 · pool 3% · market #7+0.5#7
  8. 3SPOONBILL (KY)JEAN AGUILAR · DEE CURRY · draw 3 · pool 2% · market #8+0.1#8

Race 8 · Philadelphia · 8 runners

Thin form
8½f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
4The pickBIG BLUE LINE (MD)pool 41% · model 41.9% · PACO LOPEZ
7Next bestMARKET MAVEN (PA)pool 22% · model 24.1% · MYCHEL J SANCHEZ
Exacta box476Trifecta box476Win4

BIG BLUE LINE (MD) (4) is the pick: model 42% against a 41% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge +1.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MARKET MAVEN (PA) (7) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4BIG BLUE LINE (MD)PACO LOPEZ · ERNESTO PADILLA-PRECIADO · draw 4 · pool 41% · market #1+1.3#1
  2. 7MARKET MAVEN (PA)MYCHEL J SANCHEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 7 · pool 22% · market #2+2.3#2
  3. 6I FEELUCKY TONITE (KY)ISMERIO VILLALOBOS · ANGEL CASTILLO, JR · draw 6 · pool 13% · market #3-2.9#3
  4. 2KARLWITHANARL (KY) (Koşmaz)ANGEL R RODRIGUEZ · BRANDON L KULP · draw 2 · pool 7% · market #4+0.0#4
  5. 8ELUSIVE TARGET (KY)JORGE A VARGAS, JR · ERNESTO PADILLA-PRECIADO · draw 8 · pool 6% · market #5+0.5#5
  6. 3GOTTA GUY (KY)ANGEL CASTILLO · RONALD B ABRAMS · draw 3 · pool 5% · market #6-0.7#6
  7. 1GOLDEN ICE (KY)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · BENJAMIN J DUNN · draw 1 · pool 5% · market #7-0.7#7
  8. 5GRAHMALAMADINGDONG (PA)SILVESTRE GONZALEZ · J GUADALUPE GUERRERO · draw 5 · pool 2% · market #8+0.1#8

Race 9 · Philadelphia · 10 runners

Thin form
6f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
4The pickCAPT FLUFF N STUFF (KY)pool 36% · model 27.4% · JATNIEL RAMOS
2Next bestMATZOBALL MUHAMMET (PA)pool 16% · model 16.1% · PACO LOPEZ
10At a priceROGUE PRINCE (NJ) (Koşmaz)pool 4% · model 6.8% · ELISEO RUIZ
Exacta box429Trifecta box42910Win4

CAPT FLUFF N STUFF (KY) (4) is the pick: model 27% against a 36% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge -9.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MATZOBALL MUHAMMET (PA) (2) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, ROGUE PRINCE (NJ) (Koşmaz) (10) carries +2.8 points of edge from a 4% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4CAPT FLUFF N STUFF (KY)JATNIEL RAMOS · JULIO RODRIGUEZ · draw 4 · pool 36% · market #1-9.0#1
  2. 2MATZOBALL MUHAMMET (PA)PACO LOPEZ · TONY PEREZ FLORES · draw 2 · pool 16% · market #2-0.1#2
  3. 9CORN KING (PA)DEXTER HADDOCK · RICHARD VEGA · draw 9 · pool 14% · market #3-1.2#3
  4. 6CAHVARI (PA)ANGEL CASTILLO · CARL C JONES · draw 6 · pool 10% · market #5+1.0#4
  5. 8BUFF GARY (PA)SILVESTRE GONZALEZ · JAMES F NOBLE · draw 8 · pool 12% · market #4-1.0#5
  6. 10ROGUE PRINCE (NJ) (Koşmaz)ELISEO RUIZ · WAYNE POTTS · draw 10 · pool 4% · market #6+2.8#6
  7. 1JUST ANOTHER TEN (PA)ABNER ADORNO · SCOTT A LAKE · draw 1 · pool 3% · market #7+2.0#7
  8. 3IRISH WARRIOR (PA)KENDRY RIVERA · ABDUL WILLIAMS · draw 3 · pool 2% · market #8+2.3#8
  9. 7IT'S GO TIME (PA)NOEL HERMAN · MICHAEL V PINO · draw 7 · pool 1% · market #9+1.7#9
  10. 5SHOO IN (FL)SEBASTIAN ORELLANA · JAMES E NICHOLSON, JR · draw 5 · pool 1% · market #10+1.4#10

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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