Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolispool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 1GOVERNING PARTY (USA)+2.631% · 28%
  2. 8LEAVE IT TO KITTEN (CAN)-2.121% · 23%
  3. 2OCEAN POINTE (USA)+1.814% · 12%
  4. 6TAPINYOURBLUEJEANS (USA)-0.98% · 9%
  5. 9MOOGIE SON (USA)-1.18% · 9%
  6. 3DEL MO (USA)-0.28% · 8%
  7. 7EL PELIGRO (USA)-0.45% · 5%
GOVERNING PARTY (USA) is the pick: model 31% against a 28% pool share · verdict ↓

Gulfstream Park, Horseshoe Indianapolis picks — Fri 6 Nov 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →🏇 Run the race →

10 races today · 43 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Fri 6 Nov 2026 · 2 tracks4 usable of 10 races · model overturns the favourite in 1Written Fri 06 Nov 2026, 16:45 ET · permalink

5 of 10 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Fri 6 Nov 2026

10 races across Gulfstream Park, Horseshoe Indianapolis. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
2The pickSEA GOD (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 7.1% · FELIX VASQUEZ, JR.
9Next bestRULEROFTHEUNIVERSE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 2% · model 5.3% · MICAH J. HUSBANDS

SEA GOD (USA) (Koşmaz) (2) is the pick: model 7% against a 0% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge +7.1 points.

The pool makes RULEROFTHEUNIVERSE (USA) (Koşmaz) (9) favourite at 2%; the model rates it 5%, so we overturn the favourite.

RULEROFTHEUNIVERSE (USA) (Koşmaz) (9) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2SEA GOD (USA)FELIX VASQUEZ, JR. · JOSE M. CASTRO · draw 2 · pool — · market #4scr#5
  2. 9RULEROFTHEUNIVERSE (USA)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 9 · pool 2% · market #1scr#7
  3. 5MY BOY STAN (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · NOLAN RAMSEY · draw 5 · pool 2% · market #2scr#8
  4. 7LAST SHALL B FIRST (USA)JONATHAN SANTOS · CLIFTON A. CHRISTIE · draw 7 · pool 1% · market #3scr#9
  5. 1TO JOEY (USA) (3)ANTHONY THOMAS · CHRISTOPHER A. HALL · draw 1 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 3PARDO (USA) (1)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 4SUNDAY SONG (USA) (2)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · GARY G. JACKSON · draw 4 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 6BLEU MARTINI (USA) (4)GHERSON · JAVIER E. MORZAN · draw 6 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 8ACTION DELIGHT (USA) (5)SONNY LEON · KATHLEEN O'CONNELL · draw 8 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99

Race 5 · Gulfstream Park · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1YAMAL (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 1 · pool — · market #1scr#1
  2. 2ONE MORE DUKE (USA) (7)FELIX VASQUEZ, JR. · MICHAEL YATES · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 3HOWITZER (USA) (6)JONATHAN OCASIO · DOUGLAS NUNN · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 4TECHNO MUSIC (USA) (5)CIPRIANO GIL · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5INHERENT PROMISE (USA) (3)LEONEL REYES · LISA L. LEWIS · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6CLASSIC EQUATION (USA) (1)SONNY LEON · CARLOS NARVAEZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7AMBERSSOHN (USA) (4)DIEGO A. HERRERA · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8MALBEC (USA) (2)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · REYNALDO YANEZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 7 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Thin form
6f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
8The pickONCE AND FLORAL (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 9.2% · MICAH J. HUSBANDS
1Next bestWILD NIGHT (USA) (1)pool 0% · model 0.0% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ

ONCE AND FLORAL (USA) (Koşmaz) (8) is the pick: model 9% against a 0% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +9.2 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

WILD NIGHT (USA) (1) (1) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 8ONCE AND FLORAL (USA)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 8 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 1WILD NIGHT (USA) (1)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · TODD A. PLETCHER · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2CHUCKS AUBURN GIRL (USA) (8)FELIX VASQUEZ, JR. · MICHAEL YATES · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3HONEY D'ORO (USA) (7)JONATHAN OCASIO · GARRETT W. ARSCOTT · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4DILLY DALLY (USA) (5)EDWIN GONZALEZ · J. DAVID BRADDY · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5CONQUISTADORA (USA) (3)LEONEL REYES · FRANCISCO ALANIS · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 6SENTA SAYS (USA) (6)SONNY LEON · JOSE M. CASTRO · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 7JUST A GIRL (USA) (2)DIEGO A. HERRERA · TODD A. PLETCHER · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 9A LITTLE PRESLEY (USA) (4)ISMERIO VILLALOBOS · ABRAHAM GARDEA · draw 9 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99

Race 8 · Gulfstream Park · 6 runners

Usable
Optional claiming Maiden · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
1The pickCAPTAIN EDDIE (USA)pool 15% · model 10.1% · SONNY LEON
2Next bestBANNEKER (USA) (5)pool 0% · model 0.0% · DIEGO A. HERRERA

CAPTAIN EDDIE (USA) (1) is the pick: model 10% against a 15% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge -4.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

BANNEKER (USA) (5) (2) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1CAPTAIN EDDIE (USA)SONNY LEON · AMADOR MEREI SANCHEZ · draw 1 · pool 15% · market #1-4.9#5
  2. 2BANNEKER (USA) (5)DIEGO A. HERRERA · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 2 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 3THREE ZERO (USA) (3)JESUS M. RIOS · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 3 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 4CELTIC PRIDE (USA) (4)CARLOS MARTINEZ · ANGEL M. RODRIGUEZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 5UNCLE DAR (USA) (1)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6IF NOT FOR LUCK (USA) (2)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · BEAU J. CHAPMAN · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99

Race 3 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
8½f Turf · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5UNIONISTA (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · EOIN G. HARTY · draw 5 · pool — · market #1scr#7
  2. 9AUTHORITATIVE (USA) (8)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · MICHAEL J. MAKER · draw 9 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 4ANDO (USA) (3)ANGEL SERPA · JOE BLAIR ROBERTS · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 2WEEKEND REVEILLE (USA) (4)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · WILLIAM E. GALLAGHER · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 3BUCKLEY GOLD WATER (USA) (2)ALBERTO BURGOS · ROBERT MEDINA · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 7THIEVER (USA) (1)BRODY MARTINEZ · ARMANDO HERNANDEZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 8R ALEX (USA) (7)ANGEL ORTEGA STANLEY · PAT CLAY · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 6KNICKADOO (USA) (5)JANE ELLIOTT · ANNA M. MEAH · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 1MY FRIEND WILSON (USA) (6)ANDRES P. ULLOA · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 1 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 4 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 9CHATTERFIELD (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · KARA LIN MCGUIRE · draw 9 · pool — · market #1scr#8
  2. 6LUCKIES JOY (USA) (3)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 7KING ANTHONY (USA) (5)ORLANDO MOJICA · JOSE G. RODRIGUEZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 5HENRY THE HANK (USA) (1)MITCHELL MURRILL · JONATHAN NANCE · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4DREAMING SMART (USA) (7)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · GENNADI DOROCHENKO · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 2BOTTLES (USA) (8)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · RICHARD FINUCANE · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 1LOU MAN (USA) (2)ALEXANDER BENDEZU · MAXIMINO QUINONEZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 3SOUTH OF BIRMINHAM (USA) (4)BRODY MARTINEZ · MAXIMINO QUINONEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 8LOBO SALVAJE (USA) (6)DANILO GRISALES RAVE · NERY ALVAREZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
5f Turf · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7CASH APP MIKE (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · JUAN M. MEDINA · draw 7 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 8TAYLOR'S MOONSHINE (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · JOHN HARAN · draw 8 · pool — · market #2scr#3
  3. 3HIGH HONORS (USA)JANE ELLIOTT · ANNA M. MEAH · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#4
  4. 5HOWARD'S GRIT (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · SERGIO DON JUAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#6
  5. 1TAP TAP TAP IT IN (USA) (2)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · GENNADI DOROCHENKO · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6DAUWE (USA) (1)ANGEL SERPA · LILIA GONZALEZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 4AUMOE (USA) (4)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · DAWN A. FONTENOT · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 2TIEMPOS BUENOS (USA) (3)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · SERGIO DON JUAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4PICKLE SHOES (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#2
  2. 3MAMBA OUT (USA)ISRAEL HERNANDEZ · BLANCA CANDELAS · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#6
  3. 1I BE GONE (USA)BRODY MARTINEZ · DENNIS HIGGINS · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#8
  4. 5MY BOSSY LADY (USA) (5)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 2DON'T CROSS ALEXIS (USA) (4)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 8SHANGHAI EXPRESS (USA) (1)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · JOHN HARAN · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6CALL ME ANGEL (USA) (3)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · GENNADI DOROCHENKO · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 7BEACH KITTEN (USA) (2)YARMARIE L. CORREA · JAMIE L. GRUBBS · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
1The pickGOVERNING PARTY (USA)pool 28% · model 30.6% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
8Next bestLEAVE IT TO KITTEN (CAN)pool 23% · model 20.9% · SANTIAGO GONZALEZ

GOVERNING PARTY (USA) (1) is the pick: model 31% against a 28% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +2.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

LEAVE IT TO KITTEN (CAN) (8) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1GOVERNING PARTY (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · DENNIS HIGGINS · draw 1 · pool 28% · market #1+2.6#1
  2. 8LEAVE IT TO KITTEN (CAN)SANTIAGO GONZALEZ · KATHY JARVIS · draw 8 · pool 23% · market #2-2.1#2
  3. 2OCEAN POINTE (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RICHARD ESTVANKO · draw 2 · pool 12% · market #3+1.8#3
  4. 6TAPINYOURBLUEJEANS (USA)JAVIER TAVARES · FRANK C. RANDAZZO, JR. · draw 6 · pool 9% · market #4-0.9#4
  5. 9MOOGIE SON (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · AGUSTIN GONZALEZ, JR. · draw 9 · pool 9% · market #5-1.1#5
  6. 3DEL MO (USA)CARLOS JIMENEZ · JOSE ORANTES · draw 3 · pool 8% · market #6-0.2#6
  7. 7EL PELIGRO (USA)BRODY MARTINEZ · DENNIS HIGGINS · draw 7 · pool 5% · market #7-0.4#7
  8. 4MIDNITE ALEX (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · JOSE G. RODRIGUEZ · draw 4 · pool 3% · market #8+0.7#8
  9. 5SKYLANE (USA)ALEXANDER BENDEZU · FRANK C. RANDAZZO, JR. · draw 5 · pool 3% · market #9-0.4#9

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
2The pickTRUST THE WORD (USA)pool 27% · model 22.9% · ALBERTO BURGOS
3Next bestGOOD CIVILIAN (USA)pool 26% · model 17.5% · ALEXANDER CRISPIN
6At a priceLONGSTRIDER (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 8.5% · VICTOR LARA

TRUST THE WORD (USA) (2) is the pick: model 23% against a 27% pool share, 11 runs of US form on file, edge -3.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

GOOD CIVILIAN (USA) (3) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, LONGSTRIDER (USA) (Koşmaz) (6) carries +8.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2TRUST THE WORD (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · GENNADI DOROCHENKO · draw 2 · pool 27% · market #1-3.9#1
  2. 3GOOD CIVILIAN (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · AMARA KRANZ · draw 3 · pool 26% · market #2-8.2#2
  3. 1MAN OF QUALITY (USA)BRODY MARTINEZ · DAWN MARTIN · draw 1 · pool 14% · market #3-1.0#3
  4. 10CHARLIE TOLU (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · JACK L. HANCOCK · draw 10 · pool 11% · market #5-0.2#4
  5. 7THE EXODUS TWIST (USA)JOSE RIQUELME · EMMA JIMENEZ SANCHEZ · draw 7 · pool 13% · market #4-3.2#5
  6. 6LONGSTRIDER (USA)VICTOR LARA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 6 · pool — · market #9scr#6
  7. 8ELMORE (USA)WALTER A. RODRIGUEZ · LARRY RIVELLI · draw 8 · pool — · market #10scr#7
  8. 5IL MARCHESSE (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · RICKY J. SHORT · draw 5 · pool 5% · market #6-0.0#8
  9. 4SNEAKY FEET (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · FERNANDO BAHENA · draw 4 · pool 3% · market #7+0.4#9
  10. 9TOWER GROVE PARK (USA)ANGEL ORTEGA STANLEY · FERNANDO BAHENA · draw 9 · pool 2% · market #8-0.1#10

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Belmont Park (1.29 runs/horse) · Del Mar (1.24 runs/horse) · Penn National (1.00 runs/horse) · Charles Town (1.00 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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