Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolispool vs model · Tue 6 Oct 2026
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 9DEERFIELD (USA)-12.824% · 37%
  2. 8BREAKAWAY (USA)+0.714% · 13%
  3. 3CLEAR THE BEACH (USA)-1.011% · 12%
  4. 11DREAM GOLD (USA)-1.28% · 9%
  5. 10THEODORE GEORGE (USA)-0.27% · 7%
  6. 12RAMBLIN (USA) (Koşmaz)+6.87% · 0%
  7. 6BON TEMPS (USA)+1.06% · 5%
Result pending · record

Horseshoe Indianapolis picks — Wed 7 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

8 races today · 12 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Wed 7 Oct 2026 · 1 track0 usable of 8 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Tue 06 Oct 2026, 15:13 ET · permalink

Pools not open yet

The Turkish tote opens its win pool on these 8 US races on the morning of the card (it stays thin until close to post time). This page was written from the race cards alone; verdicts and pool shares fill in about an hour before each track’s first race, once the pool has formed. Meanwhile: yesterday's results · the record.

Today · Wed 7 Oct 2026

8 races across Horseshoe Indianapolis. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5CATCH A NITE TRAIN (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1DO YA WANNA DANCE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6ICE EXPRESS (USA)JOSE RIQUELME · ISRAEL J. GARCIA · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2ME AND CHILI (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · ISRAEL J. GARCIA · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 7GIMMEETHREESTEPS (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 3SPOTONJUSTICE (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · CHAZ RECHY · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 8BOZAANO (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 4MOWINS (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 4 · pool — · market #8—#8

Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 6 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1UNBRIDLED MOON (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · AARON M. WEST · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 7JIMS PROMISE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6CRAZY LUCK (USA)VICTOR LARA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 3GABE DOESIT AGAIN (USA)MICAH MEEKS · MIGUEL ANGEL SILVA · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 2GENSISTHEKING (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · MICHAEL WEAVER · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 8JUST THE TAP (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 4MO RAMBO (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · JUSTIN BAILEY · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 5SKY HIGH CHRIS (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#8

Race 3 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Allowance, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7KENZ (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · STEVEN M. ASMUSSEN · draw 7 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3TEARIN'UP MY HEART (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1LET'S GO BARBIE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 6I'M GAME (USA)VICTOR R. CARRASCO · GEORGE R. ARNOLD II · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 2LADY PIPPA (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · ROBERT MEDINA · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 5SIGNDSEALDDELIVERD (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · SARAH E. SHAFFER · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 4STEPHENS DREAM (USA)VICTOR LARA · SARAH E. SHAFFER · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 4 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1HAPPY HAPPY DAY (ARG)ALBERTO BURGOS · PAULO H. LOBO · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 10PURDY DARN GOOD (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 10 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4SHANKAR (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · TRACEY J. WISNER · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5BAYTOWN PARFAIT (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · MICHAEL A. TOMLINSON · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 2CANYON STREAK (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · HUGO RODRIGUEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 3JAILHOUSE JUSTICE (USA)ALEX ACHARD · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 9NINE QUESTIONS (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 9 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8ANOTHER MYSTERY (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · CHRIS M. BLOCK · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 6QUOKKA (USA)AGUSTIN GOMEZ · CIRILO GOROSTIETA · draw 6 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 7PERSONAL CREED (USA)ALBIN JIMENEZ · CLAUDE L. BROWNFIELD III · draw 7 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7INFLAMMABELLE (USA)ALEX ACHARD · EMMA JIMENEZ SANCHEZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 8MOMENTARIO (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 8 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 3ARTELLA (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · SHANNON MCGOVERN · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2DON'T LOOK BACK (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ROGELIO LABRA · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6PICKLE SHOES (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 5SILVERTOWN (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · GENARO GARCIA · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 1PULSTAR (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · MARYANNE HOWARD · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 4LITTLE SAM'S (USA)VICTOR LARA · ISRAEL ACEVEDO · draw 4 · pool — · market #8—#8

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 15 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 5 of 15 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 9DREAMLICIOUS (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOE SHARP · draw 9 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4DIXIELAND (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · WILLIAM WALDEN · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 13PRACTICAL PATSY (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · JOE SHARP · draw 13 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 12GIRL ON A TEAR (USA)VICTOR R. CARRASCO · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 12 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6PACIANO (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · WILLIAM WALDEN · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 10JERRI JO (USA)ALEX ACHARD · RILEY MOTT · draw 10 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 11LUCERRA (USA)ALEX ACHARD · RILEY MOTT · draw 11 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 2AI MAGIC (USA)DYLAN MACHADO · BEN COLEBROOK · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 14FURIOUS ANGEL (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · BRIAN WALTZ · draw 14 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 3V FORMATION (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · D. WHITWORTH BECKMAN · draw 3 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 8DOOZIE DO (USA)ADAM BESCHIZZA · KELSEY DANNER · draw 8 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 1UNDERESTIMATED (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · DANIEL SIMPSON · draw 1 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 5TOOKENETTE (USA)VICTOR LARA · GERARDO RODRIGUEZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #13—#13
  14. 7NINETALES (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · CORIE ANDERSON · draw 7 · pool — · market #14—#14
  15. 15TIPPY TAP (USA)JANE ELLIOTT · EOIN G. HARTY · draw 15 · pool — · market #15—#15

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 8CONFERENCE CALLING (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 8 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 9RIGOBERTO (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · GENNADI DOROCHENKO · draw 9 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 3LEO SPRINGS (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · JOHN HARAN · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1SKYLER (USA)SUMMER PAULY · ROBERT C. CLINE · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6SOUND DOCTRINE (USA)JOSHUA MORALES · ANTHONY F. CUNNINGHAM · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2CUT GLASS (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · AMARA KRANZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 5EL DANDI (USA)ALEX ACHARD · ISRAEL ACEVEDO · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 4ROCKET HOSS (USA)MICAH MEEKS · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 4 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 7ONE COOL DUDE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · CHRIS BANKS · draw 7 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 14 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 6 of 14 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 10CLEVER HEIST (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · MICHAEL J. MAKER · draw 10 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4SILVER STAR (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RILEY MOTT · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6WHITBURN (USA)ALEX ACHARD · BRENDAN P. WALSH · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 9LINDENBORG (USA)MIA NICHOLLS · EDUARDO CARAMORI · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5I LIKE BEER (IRE)ALBERTO BURGOS · BRENDAN P. WALSH · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 12VANGUARDIAN (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · MICHAEL J. MAKER · draw 12 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 8ZONA ROSSO (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · REY HERNANDEZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 1SIR CADEN (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · BRAD H. COX · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 3BANYAN (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · J. KEITH DESORMEAUX · draw 3 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 11GOLD ON BLACK (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · RILEY MOTT · draw 11 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 7BOURBON D'ORO (USA)ADAM BESCHIZZA · KINNON LAROSE · draw 7 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 2RUETTIGER (USA)VICTOR R. CARRASCO · RILEY MOTT · draw 2 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 13PRIZE PERFORMANCE (USA)DANNY SHEEHY · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 13 · pool — · market #13—#13
  14. 14MODERN LEGACY (USA)JANE ELLIOTT · EOIN G. HARTY · draw 14 · pool — · market #14—#14

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Keeneland (1.14 runs/horse) · Belmont Park (1.01 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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