Race 2 · Gulfstream Parkpool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 2MOSAI (USA) (1)+0.00% · 0%
  2. 6EXPERT WITNESS (USA) (2)+0.00% · 0%
  3. 3CHING CHING (USA) (4)+0.00% · 0%
  4. 1ONLY THE LONELY (USA) (5)+0.00% · 0%
  5. 5GIRVIN'S GAMBIT (USA) (3)+0.00% · 0%
  6. 4DR DANIEL (USA) (6)+0.00% · 0%
CASE LAW (USA) (Koşmaz) is the pick: model 11% against a 0% pool share · verdict ↓

Gulfstream Park picks — Sat 7 Nov 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →🏇 Run the race →

6 races today · 44 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 1 track3 usable of 6 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Sat 07 Nov 2026, 16:45 ET · permalink

2 of 6 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Sat 7 Nov 2026

6 races across Gulfstream Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Gulfstream Park · 12 runners

Thin form
Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 1 of 12 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
1The pickMIDNIGHT LAUGH (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 6.6% · MARCOS MENESES
2Next bestRUBI CUBE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 6.2% · CAROL CEDENO

MIDNIGHT LAUGH (USA) (Koşmaz) (1) is the pick: model 7% against a 0% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +6.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

RUBI CUBE (USA) (Koşmaz) (2) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1MIDNIGHT LAUGH (USA)MARCOS MENESES · FAUSTO GUTIERREZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #1scr#7
  2. 2RUBI CUBE (USA)CAROL CEDENO · FRANK SANTILLANA · draw 2 · pool — · market #2scr#8
  3. 9SIENA BELLE (USA) (3)JOSE E. MORELOS · J. KENT SWEEZEY · draw 9 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 11PARDON MY DOLLY (USA) (2)EDGAR PEREZ · LAURA CAZARES · draw 11 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 7BABY PRINCESS (USA) (1)NIK JUAREZ · RONALD B. SPATZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 10JACK'S HONEY (USA) (6)YOLBER TORRES · MARK E. CASSE · draw 10 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 8CAUSESHZPRECOCIOUS (USA) (4)SONNY LEON · DOUGLAS NUNN · draw 8 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 3MUMBET (USA) (10)HERIBERTO FIGUEROA · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 3 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 4ONE MORE ROUND (USA) (9)CARLOS MARTINEZ · SEBASTIAN PULGARIN · draw 4 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99
  10. 12NIC'S AND NAT'S (USA) (7)RENZO ROJAS · HERBERT MILLER · draw 12 · pool — · market #10+0.0#99
  11. 6DIAMOND DEB (USA) (5)ISMERIO VILLALOBOS · ABRAHAM GARDEA · draw 6 · pool — · market #11+0.0#99
  12. 5INFLAME (USA) (8)GHERSON · TIMOTHY A. HILLS · draw 5 · pool — · market #12+0.0#99

Race 2 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
7The pickCASE LAW (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 10.8% · FELIX VASQUEZ, JR.
2Next bestMOSAI (USA) (1)pool 0% · model 0.0% · DIEGO A. HERRERA

CASE LAW (USA) (Koşmaz) (7) is the pick: model 11% against a 0% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge +10.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MOSAI (USA) (1) (2) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7CASE LAW (USA)FELIX VASQUEZ, JR. · TAREQ MOUBARAK · draw 7 · pool — · market #1scr#4
  2. 2MOSAI (USA) (1)DIEGO A. HERRERA · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 2 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 6EXPERT WITNESS (USA) (2)LEONEL REYES · MICHAEL LERMAN · draw 6 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3CHING CHING (USA) (4)EDWIN GONZALEZ · MICHAEL S. MORRISON · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 1ONLY THE LONELY (USA) (5)HERIBERTO FIGUEROA · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 1 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5GIRVIN'S GAMBIT (USA) (3)ANTHONY THOMAS · CHRISTOPHER A. HALL · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 4DR DANIEL (USA) (6)MARCOS MENESES · ELIZABETH L. DOBLES · draw 4 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 4 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
7f Dirt · MAIDEN Optional claiming Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 0 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5RALLY ROYALE (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 5 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 4TOMMY'S MIRACLE (USA) (2)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2KING MANOLETE (USA) (1)DIEGO A. HERRERA · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 7SHINING (USA) (3)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 8MISCHIEF HOLIDAY (USA) (7)SONNY LEON · KATHLEEN O'CONNELL · draw 8 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 9GREAT CHIEF (USA) (6)MARCOS MENESES · MONICA MCGOEY · draw 9 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 3HIDDEN DANGER (USA) (5)CARLOS MARTINEZ · GUSTAVO DELGADO · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 1NIMBLE JACK (USA) (4)JOSE E. MORELOS · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 6EL REY DE ORO (USA) (8)ANGEL CRUZ · DOUGLAS NUNN · draw 6 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 6 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
6½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4MISTY MONEY (USA)JESUS M. RIOS · JOSE A. GALLEGOS · draw 4 · pool — · market #1scr#2
  2. 5FROSTY BELLE (USA)JONATHAN SANTOS · COLLIN MARAGH · draw 5 · pool — · market #2scr#7
  3. 1EVANORA (USA) (4)EDWIN GONZALEZ · GARRETT W. ARSCOTT · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3LOLA'S ROMANCE (USA) (2)CIPRIANO GIL · CARLOS NARVAEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 2SWEET DREAM LADY (USA) (3)LEONEL REYES · ARMANDO DE LA CERDA · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6ZEALOT (USA) (1)JOSE E. MORELOS · JOSE M. CASTRO · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7ELLAGIO (USA) (5)FELIX VASQUEZ, JR. · MONICA MCGOEY · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 7 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Usable
Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
6The pickMATTINGLY (USA)pool 29% · model 28.3% · DIEGO A. HERRERA
2Next bestESPERON (USA)pool 21% · model 22.6% · LEONEL REYES
7At a pricePOULIN IN O T (CAN) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 8.9% · MICAH J. HUSBANDS

MATTINGLY (USA) (6) is the pick: model 28% against a 29% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -1.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

ESPERON (USA) (2) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, POULIN IN O T (CAN) (Koşmaz) (7) carries +8.9 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6MATTINGLY (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 6 · pool 29% · market #1-1.0#1
  2. 2ESPERON (USA)LEONEL REYES · J. DAVID BRADDY · draw 2 · pool 21% · market #2+1.4#2
  3. 9DICIASSETTE (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · PATRICK L. BIANCONE · draw 9 · pool 13% · market #3-1.4#3
  4. 5LOUIE THE SUN KING (USA)SONNY LEON · KATHLEEN O'CONNELL · draw 5 · pool 13% · market #4-2.2#4
  5. 7POULIN IN O T (CAN)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · STEVEN OWENS · draw 7 · pool — · market #9scr#5
  6. 4WILDNCRAZYNIGHT (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · KELLY J. BREEN · draw 4 · pool 8% · market #5-0.6#6
  7. 3WOOTUN (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 3 · pool 8% · market #6-3.2#7
  8. 1FULL DISCLOSURE (USA)MARCOS MENESES · AMZADALI JEHALUDI · draw 1 · pool 4% · market #7-0.9#8
  9. 8TAKECAREOFBUSINESS (USA)NIK JUAREZ · JOEL SANTIAGO · draw 8 · pool 3% · market #8-0.9#9

Race 8 · Gulfstream Park · 8 runners

Usable
Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
4The pickBRIGADE COMMANDER (USA)pool 21% · model 20.6% · DIEGO A. HERRERA
8Next bestBLUFF (USA)pool 21% · model 19.2% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ
2At a priceGOLD FOOT (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 11.8% · CIPRIANO GIL

BRIGADE COMMANDER (USA) (4) is the pick: model 21% against a 21% pool share, 9 runs of US form on file, edge -0.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

BLUFF (USA) (8) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, GOLD FOOT (USA) (Koşmaz) (2) carries +11.8 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4BRIGADE COMMANDER (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · NOLAN RAMSEY · draw 4 · pool 21% · market #1-0.6#1
  2. 8BLUFF (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · BOBBY S. DIBONA · draw 8 · pool 21% · market #2-2.1#2
  3. 6ALWAYS TRUE (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · DANTE ZANELLI · draw 6 · pool 20% · market #3-3.4#3
  4. 7DISTINCT (USA)LEONEL REYES · JOSE A. GALLEGOS · draw 7 · pool 18% · market #4-5.0#4
  5. 2GOLD FOOT (USA)CIPRIANO GIL · DAVID FAWKES · draw 2 · pool — · market #7scr#5
  6. 5ARTHUR'S COURT (USA)ISMERIO VILLALOBOS · JOSE A. GALLEGOS · draw 5 · pool — · market #8scr#6
  7. 1NO MORE WAR (USA)JESUS M. RIOS · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 1 · pool 13% · market #5-7.0#7
  8. 3EAMONN (USA)CAROL CEDENO · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 3 · pool 6% · market #6-4.5#8

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Belmont Park (1.30 runs/horse) · Del Mar (1.27 runs/horse) · Charles Town (1.00 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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