Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolispool vs model · Wed 7 Oct 2026
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 3LEO SPRINGS (USA)-1.235% · 36%
  2. 1SKYLER (USA)+0.814% · 13%
  3. 9RIGOBERTO (USA)+0.814% · 13%
  4. 8CONFERENCE CALLING (USA)+0.913% · 12%
  5. 2CUT GLASS (USA)-0.58% · 9%
  6. 4ROCKET HOSS (USA)-0.96% · 7%
  7. 6SOUND DOCTRINE (USA)+0.34% · 4%
Result pending · record

Horseshoe Indianapolis picks — Thu 8 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

8 races today · 13 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Thu 8 Oct 2026 · 1 track0 usable of 8 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Wed 07 Oct 2026, 15:13 ET · permalink

Pools not open yet

The Turkish tote opens its win pool on these 8 US races on the morning of the card (it stays thin until close to post time). This page was written from the race cards alone; verdicts and pool shares fill in about an hour before each track’s first race, once the pool has formed. Meanwhile: yesterday's results · the record.

Today · Thu 8 Oct 2026

8 races across Horseshoe Indianapolis. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 6 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 6 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1EKATI FLATTER (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2UNBRIDLED DEVINE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 3BARB'S VORTEX (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · RON D. HERRELL · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5WHEN'S FOREVER (USA)IRVING MONCADA · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6BOTOX KATIE (USA)SANTO SANJUR · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 4CLASSIC KITTEN (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · JOSE CAZARES · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#6

Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 6 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2CAN'T FOOL APRIL (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · TERRY PHILLIPS · draw 2 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4MOMIMOSA (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1BERTIE'S WORLD (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 3VELVET REIGN (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5LIVING HAPPY (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 6HARAN'S HOLIDAY (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · JOHN HARAN · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7J'S SUGARS (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 3 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
8½f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6DREAM FAST (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 6 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1MACHTS NICHTS (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4INDY KID (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 7AIR CHARGER (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3COOL HUNTING (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · GREGORY R. BLAND · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 8AUDUBON BAY (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 5AIRDROP (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · AMARA KRANZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 2MI SARGENTO (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · TERRY VAUGHN · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#8

Race 4 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4VENENO FUTURO (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · JAMIE L. GRUBBS · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 7MCGINNIS (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · BRITTNEY M. ATRAS · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 9JACK RABBIT (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · BRIAN WILLIAMSON · draw 9 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 8AKKADIAN (USA)ALEX ACHARD · ETHAN W. WEST · draw 8 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 1CASH APP MIKE (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · JUAN M. MEDINA · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 6VALIANT AWARD (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · RICKY J. SHORT · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 3SWAMP KING (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · ALLEN MILLIGAN · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 2DEWY'S DENALI (USA)ASSAEL ESPINOZA · REINA E. GONZALEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 5ONLY FRANK KNOWS (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA, JR. · JOSE PAYE · draw 5 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Allowance, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3INNISFREE PRAYER (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1AUNT LEILA'S SKY (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6SHE'S A WHIRLWIND (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2CLEAN GETAWAY (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5RUNWAY SHOWSTOPPER (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · JOHN HARAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 7WOSIE'S PROMISE (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 7 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 4GRAND ARIAT (USA)IRVING MONCADA · CHAZ RECHY · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
5f Turf · Allowance, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3FANCY FASCINATOR (USA)SUMMER PAULY · ED MOGER, JR. · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 5J Z'S LAST SCHANCE (USA)DANILO GRISALES RAVE · JOEL ZAWITZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 2HEADS IN BEDS (FR)DANNY SHEEHY · CHRIS A. HARTMAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 9MO TOWN RENEE (USA)SANTO SANJUR · WAYNE M. CATALANO · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 1LATE TO THE GAME (USA)ALEX ACHARD · ROBERT MEDINA · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 6VICTOR VALLEY (USA)ANGEL SERPA · ISRAEL ACEVEDO · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 4ELLE'S DANCER (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · CLAUDE L. BROWNFIELD III · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 10CLOUDY STAR (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 10 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 8PLUME (USA)WALTER A. RODRIGUEZ · LARRY RIVELLI · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 7SARISSA (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · STEPHEN S. SANDY · draw 7 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 11 runners

NO POOL YET
8½f Dirt · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 11 of 11 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 10MITCH (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 10 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 7FOREVER GREEDY (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 11MYSTIK JUSTICE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 11 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 3MAGNUS GOLD (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 2SHIESTY TO CHASE (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · MICHAEL WEAVER · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 5POSITIVE CHANGE (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · JULIE SEBASTIAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 1TURBO DUCK (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · TRACEY J. WISNER · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8EL MICHOACANO (USA)SANTO SANJUR · LON WIGGINS · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 4INCLINED (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 4 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 6GIN AND WHISKEY (USA)ALEX ACHARD · DEVARUS DOUGLASS · draw 6 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 9BRAZILIAN CONEXAO (USA)ORLANDO BOCACHICA · EDUARDO CARAMORI · draw 9 · pool — · market #11—#11

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
7½f Turf · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 11 of 12 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 11PEZZONOVANTE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 11 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1CANDY CONSTITUTION (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · WILLIAM E. MOREY · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6GDOUBLEYOU (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5INCREDIBLE POWER (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · ETHAN W. WEST · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3POSITIVE EQUITY (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 8JR BARTHOLOMEW (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · JOSE CAZARES · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 2DACOLDESTTOEVADOIT (USA)VICTOR R. CARRASCO · CAIO CARAMORI · draw 2 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 7BUCKLEY GOLD WATER (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · ROBERT MEDINA · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 10CANTIS (USA)ALEX ACHARD · EOIN G. HARTY · draw 10 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 9TAMBOURINE MAN (USA)ALBIN JIMENEZ · CHRISTOPHER DAVIS · draw 9 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 12CREATING HAVOC (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · AGUSTIN GONZALEZ, JR. · draw 12 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 4ALLEY OOP (USA)JANE ELLIOTT · JIMMY CORRIGAN · draw 4 · pool — · market #12—#12

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Keeneland (1.14 runs/horse) · Belmont Park (1.01 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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