Race 2 · Laurel Parkpool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 1AZTEC (USA) (3)+0.00% · 0%
  2. 2ALVY (USA) (4)+0.00% · 0%
  3. 3RAPIDITY (USA) (1)+0.00% · 0%
  4. 4KITTY'S SON (USA) (5)+0.00% · 0%
  5. 5MORNING THOUGHTS (USA) (2)+0.00% · 0%
  6. 6CHICO CHARLIE (USA) (6)+0.00% · 0%
ARTILLERY GUNNAR (USA) (Koşmaz) is the pick: model 8% against a 0% pool share · verdict ↓

Gulfstream Park, Laurel Park picks — Sun 8 Nov 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →🏇 Run the race →

14 races today · 45 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 2 tracks3 usable of 14 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Sun 08 Nov 2026, 16:45 ET · permalink

7 of 14 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Sun 8 Nov 2026

14 races across Gulfstream Park, Laurel Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 2 · Gulfstream Park · 8 runners

Blind
Maiden claiming · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 0 of 8 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 5TIZ GENERAL (USA)ISMERIO VILLALOBOS · CARLOS MUNOZ · draw 5 · pool 1% · market #1scr#8
  2. 8CILLIAN (USA) (5)HERIBERTO FIGUEROA · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 8 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 3STONEY DADDY (USA) (4)DIEGO A. HERRERA · ANTONIO SANO · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 7MOM'S BOY IMAGE (USA) (7)CIPRIANO GIL · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 2SWEET INTERVAL (USA) (2)NIK JUAREZ · BEAU J. CHAPMAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 1BRO (USA) (6)FELIX VASQUEZ, JR. · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 4SAVE OUR SOUL (USA) (3)CARLOS MARTINEZ · GERALD JAMES · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 6PLAY IT FORWARD (USA) (1)MARCOS MENESES · LEON J. MCKANAS · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 4 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6ORTUS (USA)MARCOS MENESES · LISA L. LEWIS · draw 6 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 9BAY OF BENGAL (USA)CARLOS MARTINEZ · CARLOS LUIS PEREZ · draw 9 · pool — · market #2scr#9
  3. 1FULL NELSON (USA) (2)PACO LOPEZ · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 7PEACETHRUSTRENGTH (USA) (1)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 8STEELIN BASES (USA) (7)LEONEL REYES · FRANK J. REGALBUTO · draw 8 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 3DUNE ROAD (USA) (3)JOSE E. MORELOS · MARK PASSLEY · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 2ACCELERATE ME (USA) (5)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · RONALD COY · draw 2 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 4ANAMNESTIC (USA) (4)JONATHAN SANTOS · REYNALDO YANEZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 5SPY NOVEL (USA) (6)DIEGO A. HERRERA · REYNALDO YANEZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 5 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
7f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5KIM WIN WIN (USA)LEONEL REYES · BERNARDO G. LOPEZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #1scr#2
  2. 6SOMETHING AWESOME (USA)FELIX VASQUEZ, JR. · MICHAEL YATES · draw 6 · pool — · market #2scr#7
  3. 2MO PROBABLE (USA) (2)PACO LOPEZ · KELLY J. BREEN · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 7MODO LEYENDA (USA) (5)EDGAR PEREZ · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 3BASILICA LIGHT (USA) (4)JONATHAN SANTOS · CRAFTON DESOUZA · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 1SISTER SLEW (USA) (3)CAROL CEDENO · MARK PASSLEY · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 4QUEEN OF ROCK (USA) (1)DAVID BORACO · SERGIO E. VILLANUEVA · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 6 · Gulfstream Park · 11 runners

NO POOL YET
Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 11 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3PARIS SURPRISE (USA)LEONEL REYES · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1POSEIDON'S LAW (USA)MARCOS MENESES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#4
  3. 6AYE EYE (USA)PACO LOPEZ · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#7
  4. 4HAPPY MEMORIES (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · DAVID FAWKES · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#8
  5. 9SPIRITINTHENIGHT (USA)NIK JUAREZ · ANTHONY R. MARGOTTA, JR. · draw 9 · pool — · market #5—#9
  6. 10HAYDEN REMEMBERED (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · TAREQ MOUBARAK · draw 10 · pool — · market #6—#10
  7. 8JUNCTION ROAD (USA) (1)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · ROHAN G. CRICHTON · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 5LONGBRANCH LOU (USA) (2)DIEGO A. HERRERA · NOLAN RAMSEY · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 7NICKEL C (USA) (4)EDWIN GONZALEZ · DAVID FAWKES · draw 7 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 11TIME PASSES (USA) (5)YOLBER TORRES · MARK E. CASSE · draw 11 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 2HANDS OF TIME (USA) (3)JOZBIN Z. SANTANA · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 2 · pool — · market #11—#99

Race 7 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
1The pickSWAGGISH (USA)pool 49% · model 36.4% · LEONEL REYES
5Next bestEDITOR (USA)pool 26% · model 16.8% · SONNY LEON
2At a priceEL OREJON (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 8.6% · EDWIN GONZALEZ

SWAGGISH (USA) (1) is the pick: model 36% against a 49% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge -13.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

EDITOR (USA) (5) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, EL OREJON (USA) (Koşmaz) (2) carries +8.6 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1SWAGGISH (USA)LEONEL REYES · SAM WILENSKY · draw 1 · pool 49% · market #1-13.1#1
  2. 5EDITOR (USA)SONNY LEON · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 5 · pool 26% · market #2-9.5#2
  3. 4EYES ON THE GROUND (USA)PACO LOPEZ · STEVE KLESARIS · draw 4 · pool — · market #6scr#3
  4. 2EL OREJON (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · STEVE KLESARIS · draw 2 · pool — · market #7scr#4
  5. 6KID TWIST (USA)JESUS M. RIOS · JOSE A. GALLEGOS · draw 6 · pool — · market #8scr#5
  6. 9RENT'S DUE (USA)NIK JUAREZ · BEAU J. CHAPMAN · draw 9 · pool — · market #9scr#6
  7. 3SMOKE AN A PANCAKE (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 3 · pool 14% · market #3-6.5#7
  8. 8BUILT BY KHOZAN (USA)ANGEL CRUZ · DOUGLAS NUNN · draw 8 · pool 7% · market #4-3.7#8
  9. 7LETHAL SPEED (USA)FELIX VASQUEZ, JR. · AMZADALI JEHALUDI · draw 7 · pool 3% · market #5-1.3#9

Race 8 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Usable
Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
8The pickSOVEREIGN GOLD (USA)pool 28% · model 26.7% · EDWIN GONZALEZ
3Next bestKOKOMO KITTY (USA)pool 22% · model 21.2% · LEONEL REYES

SOVEREIGN GOLD (USA) (8) is the pick: model 27% against a 28% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -1.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

KOKOMO KITTY (USA) (3) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 8SOVEREIGN GOLD (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 8 · pool 28% · market #1-1.3#1
  2. 3KOKOMO KITTY (USA)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 3 · pool 22% · market #2-0.8#2
  3. 4BIRCH RUN (USA)PACO LOPEZ · ANTONIO SANO · draw 4 · pool 13% · market #3+1.2#3
  4. 5MO TOWN SOUL (USA)EDGAR PEREZ · RONALD B. SPATZ · draw 5 · pool 11% · market #4-0.7#4
  5. 9NECEA (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 9 · pool 7% · market #6+1.9#5
  6. 1IBIS (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · FRANCISCO ALANIS · draw 1 · pool 10% · market #5-1.9#6
  7. 2ON MY TIME (USA)SONNY LEON · MARK E. CASSE · draw 2 · pool 5% · market #7+1.3#7
  8. 6MONETARY (USA)MARCOS MENESES · MANNY REAL · draw 6 · pool 2% · market #8+0.2#8
  9. 7ALWAYS PRAISING (USA)FELIX VASQUEZ, JR. · DILEY A. DAKIN · draw 7 · pool 2% · market #9+0.1#9

Race 1 · Laurel Park · 14 runners

Blind
5½f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 2 of 14 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 11THICK BUT QUICK (USA)JEIRON BARBOSA · ANTHONY FARRIOR · draw 11 · pool — · market #5scr#6
  2. 12REBEL PRINCESS (USA)JATNIEL RAMOS · LYNN A. ASHBY · draw 12 · pool — · market #6scr#7
  3. 10DOE'S LEMONADE (USA)WILFREDO CORUJO · JONATHAN MALDONADO · draw 10 · pool — · market #7scr#8
  4. 9RUSSIAN IRIS (USA)FOREST BOYCE · W. ROBERT BAILES · draw 9 · pool 2% · market #1scr#11
  5. 7I AM KING (USA)XAVIER PEREZ · SUSAN S. COONEY · draw 7 · pool 1% · market #2scr#12
  6. 2SO NOBLE (USA)VINCENT CHEMINAUD · MARK SHUMAN · draw 2 · pool 1% · market #3scr#13
  7. 14SUGAR BUSH (USA)PAUL A. LUNA · JUAN BACALLAO VEGA · draw 14 · pool 1% · market #4scr#14
  8. 1PULCHRITUDE (USA) (4)JOSE A. BATISTA · HUGH I. MCMAHON · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 3OUT TIL TWO (USA) (6)LEANDRO M. BRICENO · SARAH WHITE · draw 3 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 4BLUSHING JACKIE (USA) (7)EDGAR VILLASMIL · PEDRO NAZARIO · draw 4 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 5QUADRATIC FORMULA (USA) (3)JEAN GREGOR BRICENO · SOMRAJ SINGH · draw 5 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 6WENDY DARLING (USA) (1)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · JAMES L. LAWRENCE II · draw 6 · pool — · market #12—#99
  13. 8HOPPERTUNISTIC (USA) (5)JULIO A. HERNANDEZ · DANIEL G. EUBANKS · draw 8 · pool — · market #13—#99
  14. 13MONEY QUEEN (USA) (2)ABNER ADORNO · J. TYLER SERVIS · draw 13 · pool — · market #14—#99

Race 2 · Laurel Park · 7 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
7The pickARTILLERY GUNNAR (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 8.3% · MATILDA BURNHAM
1Next bestAZTEC (USA) (3)pool 0% · model 0.0% · JEIRON BARBOSA

ARTILLERY GUNNAR (USA) (Koşmaz) (7) is the pick: model 8% against a 0% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge +8.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

AZTEC (USA) (3) (1) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7ARTILLERY GUNNAR (USA)MATILDA BURNHAM · JOSEPH M. MURPHY · draw 7 · pool — · market #1scr#5
  2. 1AZTEC (USA) (3)JEIRON BARBOSA · A. FERRIS ALLEN III · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2ALVY (USA) (4)LEANDRO M. BRICENO · W. ROBERT BAILES · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3RAPIDITY (USA) (1)MARTIN CHUAN · JOANNE SHANKLE · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4KITTY'S SON (USA) (5)EMANUEL ROSARIO · JOSEPH M. MURPHY · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5MORNING THOUGHTS (USA) (2)RAUL E. MENA · RODOLFO SANCHEZ-SALOMON · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 6CHICO CHARLIE (USA) (6)RONALDO RODRIGUEZ · LUIS FERNANDO GONZALEZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 3 · Laurel Park · 16 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 16 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 13NOSTROMO (USA)MARTIN CHUAN · DANIELLE HODSDON · draw 13 · pool — · market #1scr#1
  2. 16RATTLEJACK (USA). · FENNEKA T. BENTLEY · draw 16 · pool — · market #2scr#2
  3. 7REBEL PRINCE (USA)VINCENT CHEMINAUD · LYNN A. ASHBY · draw 7 · pool — · market #3scr#3
  4. 15BAR DOWN (USA)JORGE RUIZ · PHILIP ANTONACCI · draw 15 · pool — · market #4scr#4
  5. 5WICKHAM LANE (USA)JOSEPH ROCCO, JR. · TIM WOOLLEY · draw 5 · pool — · market #5scr#9
  6. 14RIVER REVIVAL (USA)CARLOS EDUARDO LOPEZ · SUSAN S. COONEY · draw 14 · pool — · market #6scr#16
  7. 1PUTTER MAN (USA) (6)JOSE R. BETANCOURT · TIM WOOLLEY · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 2GUERRILLA MAGIC (USA) (5)TAIS LYAPUSTINA · ROBIN L. GRAHAM · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 3BIG BOY LUKA (USA) (10)JORGE RUIZ · ANTHONY AGUIRRE · draw 3 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 4CLASSIC MARTINI (USA) (7)JEVIAN TOLEDO · ALBERTO DELGADO · draw 4 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 6FREE DROP OPS (USA) (4)CHARLIE MUNOZ · ROBERT LEAF III · draw 6 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 8PHANTOM GOLD (USA) (8)FOREST BOYCE · MILAN MILOSEVIC · draw 8 · pool — · market #12—#99
  13. 9FIERY DEBUT (USA) (3)NOMAR ARROYO BUENO · ELIZABETH MCCUE · draw 9 · pool — · market #13—#99
  14. 10LIVE LIKE JEFF (USA) (2)YOMAR ORLANDO ORTIZ · LINDA L. ALBERT · draw 10 · pool — · market #14—#99
  15. 11NANTUCKET LOVE (USA) (1)LEANDRO M. BRICENO · W. ROBERT BAILES · draw 11 · pool — · market #15—#99
  16. 12TEDDY P (USA) (9)MAGGLIO SANCHEZ · HAMILTON A. SMITH · draw 12 · pool — · market #16—#99

Race 4 · Laurel Park · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3HURRICANE LYNN (USA)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · KIERON MAGEE · draw 3 · pool — · market #1scr#1
  2. 1KINDA KRAZY (USA) (3)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · RODOLFO SANCHEZ-SALOMON · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2LAST TREASURE (USA) (7)TAIS LYAPUSTINA · LAWRENCE M. SMITH · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 4PNEUMO WARRIOR (USA) (1)LEANDRO M. BRICENO · NANCY B. HEIL · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5LAINEY JANE (USA) (5)RAUL E. MENA · A. FERRIS ALLEN III · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6LUCKY TICKET (USA) (6)VINCENT CHEMINAUD · KELLY LYNN DEITER · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7PEACE BEFORE CHAOS (USA) (2)JEVIAN TOLEDO · TIMOTHY L. KEEFE · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8IVEY MY LOVE (USA) (4)BARRINGTON BELL · ROBERT A. WERNETH · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 5 · Laurel Park · 16 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 16 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6ORACLE OF BEAUFORT (USA)SHELDON RUSSELL · BRITTANY T. RUSSELL · draw 6 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 14FREEDOM GLIDER (USA)JOSEPH ROCCO, JR. · JOHN E. SALZMAN, JR. · draw 14 · pool — · market #2scr#4
  3. 7SNEAKING SUSPICION (USA)FOREST BOYCE · ANTHONY AGUIRRE, JR. · draw 7 · pool — · market #3scr#5
  4. 9BABBLE (USA)JOSE A. BATISTA · NESVIL B. DAVILA · draw 9 · pool — · market #4scr#7
  5. 4TAIL RISK (USA)JEIRON BARBOSA · ANTHONY FARRIOR · draw 4 · pool — · market #5scr#8
  6. 15GARAGE BEERS (USA)JULIO A. HERNANDEZ · ELISHA PEREZ · draw 15 · pool — · market #6scr#10
  7. 13LATIN REBEL (USA)CARLOS EDUARDO LOPEZ · MARK SHUMAN · draw 13 · pool — · market #7scr#11
  8. 1WEST MOUNTAIN (USA)RONALDO RODRIGUEZ · CAITLIN KEIL · draw 1 · pool — · market #8scr#13
  9. 12LET FLY (USA)HORACIO KARAMANOS · A. FERRIS ALLEN III · draw 12 · pool — · market #9scr#15
  10. 16KITTEN'S PLOY (USA)RONALDO RODRIGUEZ · JOSE A. RAMIREZ · draw 16 · pool — · market #10scr#16
  11. 2FIGHTING WORDS (USA) (2)LEANDRO M. BRICENO · SARAH WHITE · draw 2 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 3MAUPANSANT (USA) (4)KEVIN GOMEZ · CAITLIN KEIL · draw 3 · pool — · market #12—#99
  13. 5WALKING IN MEMPHIS (USA) (5)MARTIN CHUAN · MICHAEL E. JONES, JR. · draw 5 · pool — · market #13—#99
  14. 8PLAY IT COOL (USA) (1)JEIRON BARBOSA · A. FERRIS ALLEN III · draw 8 · pool — · market #14—#99
  15. 10MR FLOWERS (USA) (6)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 10 · pool — · market #15—#99
  16. 11VILLAIN (USA) (3)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 11 · pool — · market #16—#99

Race 6 · Laurel Park · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 0 of 12 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 12GYPSY DREAM (USA). · CATHAL A. LYNCH · draw 12 · pool — · market #1scr#2
  2. 8LAKE MARTIN (USA)JORGE RUIZ · H. GRAHAM MOTION · draw 8 · pool — · market #2scr#5
  3. 2STABILIZER (USA)JOSE A. BATISTA · MICHAEL STIDHAM · draw 2 · pool — · market #3scr#6
  4. 4DUBLIN YOUR LUCK (USA)KEVIN GOMEZ · SUZANNE STETTINIUS · draw 4 · pool — · market #4scr#8
  5. 6FRESH ELLE (USA)XAVIER PEREZ · JUSTIN RIVERA · draw 6 · pool — · market #5scr#9
  6. 1BULLISTIC (USA)VINCENT CHEMINAUD · MADISON F. MEYERS · draw 1 · pool — · market #6scr#11
  7. 9LAST CALL BARR (USA)LEANDRO M. BRICENO · SUSAN S. COONEY · draw 9 · pool — · market #7scr#12
  8. 3IMPERIAL CHARTER (USA) (3)FOREST BOYCE · W. ROBERT BAILES · draw 3 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 5LETEM (USA) (2)JEIRON BARBOSA · SUZANNE STETTINIUS · draw 5 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 7LONGFIELD (USA) (5)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · KEVIN C. BONIFACE · draw 7 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 10RAZORKNIFE (USA) (1)CARLOS EDUARDO LOPEZ · W. ROBERT BAILES · draw 10 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 11MAX PUSH (USA) (4)LEANDRO M. BRICENO · GARY CAPUANO · draw 11 · pool — · market #12—#99

Race 7 · Laurel Park · 7 runners

Blind
7f Dirt · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 0 of 7 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 4SEISMIC SURGE (USA)XAVIER PEREZ · JOHN J. ROBB · draw 4 · pool 1% · market #1scr#7
  2. 1START THE CLOCK (USA) (4)SHELDON RUSSELL · BRITTANY T. RUSSELL · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2JERRY INSPIRES (USA) (1)JEIRON BARBOSA · PHILLIP CAPUANO · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3KONRAD'S CORNER (USA) (3)CARLOS EDUARDO LOPEZ · W. ROBERT BAILES · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5KNEE HIGH (USA) (5)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · MICHAEL E. GORHAM · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6BET ME (USA) (6)FOREST BOYCE · HAMILTON A. SMITH · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7LASTING PEACE (USA) (2)JORGE RUIZ · H. GRAHAM MOTION · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 8 · Laurel Park · 15 runners

Thin form
5½f Dirt · Allowance, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 15 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
3The pickBYWAY (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 6.6% · SHELDON RUSSELL
14Next bestWISE AND ELEGANT (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 6.0% · JOSEPH ROCCO, JR.
9At a priceBRIKELI (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 5.9% · JAIME RODRIGUEZ

BYWAY (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) is the pick: model 7% against a 0% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +6.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

WISE AND ELEGANT (USA) (Koşmaz) (14) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

For something at a price, BRIKELI (USA) (Koşmaz) (9) carries +5.9 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3BYWAY (USA)SHELDON RUSSELL · BRITTANY T. RUSSELL · draw 3 · pool — · market #1scr#4
  2. 14WISE AND ELEGANT (USA)JOSEPH ROCCO, JR. · HUGH I. MCMAHON · draw 14 · pool — · market #2scr#5
  3. 10COVERED IN CRYSTAL (USA)JORGE RUIZ · MICHAEL J. TROMBETTA · draw 10 · pool — · market #3scr#6
  4. 9BRIKELI (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · KYLE M. HORLACHER · draw 9 · pool — · market #4scr#7
  5. 1SWEETERTHANWHISKEY (USA)JEIRON BARBOSA · GEORGIA D. ANDREADAKIS · draw 1 · pool — · market #5scr#8
  6. 5BEST GIRL MAGIC (USA)JEVIAN TOLEDO · JORGE DUARTE, JR. · draw 5 · pool — · market #6scr#9
  7. 12JENADRIYAH (USA)MARTINA ROJAS · J. MICHAEL ROGERS · draw 12 · pool — · market #7scr#10
  8. 6THE MAGIC OFMOVIES (USA)HORACIO KARAMANOS · MICHAEL J. TROMBETTA · draw 6 · pool — · market #8scr#11
  9. 15CONCEPTUALIZE (USA)CHARLIE MUNOZ · ROBERT LEAF III · draw 15 · pool — · market #9scr#12
  10. 11TAP IT UP (USA)CHRISTIAN MARAGH · SILVINO RAMIREZ · draw 11 · pool — · market #10scr#13
  11. 13LUCKY LIS (USA)JEAN GREGOR BRICENO · JOSE J. MAGANA · draw 13 · pool — · market #11scr#14
  12. 2DIANE LEE (USA) (2)FOREST BOYCE · SARAH WHITE · draw 2 · pool — · market #12+0.0#99
  13. 4MOONBLAZE (USA) (3)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · KATHLEEN A. DEMASI · draw 4 · pool — · market #13+0.0#99
  14. 7TACIT VALUE (USA) (1)JEVIAN TOLEDO · HUGH I. MCMAHON · draw 7 · pool — · market #14+0.0#99
  15. 8SOTA SUMMERS (USA) (4)SHELDON RUSSELL · BRITTANY T. RUSSELL · draw 8 · pool — · market #15+0.0#99

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Belmont Park (1.31 runs/horse) · Del Mar (1.30 runs/horse) · Mountaineer (1.00 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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