Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolispool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 1TAPIT CHARM (USA) (1)+0.00% · 0%
  2. 5JOGGER (USA) (3)+0.00% · 0%
  3. 4LUNAR SKY (USA) (5)+0.00% · 0%
  4. 2SWEET SAHARA (USA) (2)+0.00% · 0%
  5. 3LIL SALVATION (USA) (4)+0.00% · 0%
SOMPATRA (USA) (Koşmaz) is the pick: model 14% against a 0% pool share · verdict ↓

Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Mahoning Valley picks — Mon 9 Nov 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →🏇 Run the race →

17 races today · 46 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Mon 9 Nov 2026 · 4 tracks7 usable of 17 races · model overturns the favourite in 3Written Mon 09 Nov 2026, 17:15 ET · permalink

9 of 17 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Mon 9 Nov 2026

17 races across Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Mahoning Valley. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
2The pickPOMPOUS PRINCE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 9% · model 12.7% · KEIBER J. COA
6Next bestSUTTON BREEZE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 3% · model 3.9% · JOEL CRUZ

POMPOUS PRINCE (USA) (Koşmaz) (2) is the pick: model 13% against a 9% pool share, 11 runs of US form on file, edge +3.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SUTTON BREEZE (USA) (Koşmaz) (6) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2POMPOUS PRINCE (USA)KEIBER J. COA · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 2 · pool 9% · market #1scr#4
  2. 6SUTTON BREEZE (USA)JOEL CRUZ · BETH MILLER-SAUL · draw 6 · pool 3% · market #2scr#7
  3. 1HE'S GOT THIS (USA) (1)J. M. ROHENA · CHRIS J. ENGLEHART · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3LOOKIN' SUPER (USA) (4)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · TIMOTHY P. MURPHY · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4LAST DIAMOND (USA) (5)REYLU GUTIERREZ · JON G. ARNETT · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5IT'S NOT OVER YET (USA) (2)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · LISA A. REED · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7FLYING IN STYLE (USA) (3)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · DAVID OYOLA · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 3 · Finger Lakes · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6MILAGROSO (USA)BEN S. JOSEPH · JULIUS ASHLEY · draw 6 · pool — · market #1scr#8
  2. 1C R INSTA GATOR (USA) (1)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · JON G. ARNETT · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2BUCK WILD (USA) (3)OSCAR GOMEZ · DEWIGHT J. WADAMS · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3HE HAS IT ALL (USA) (6)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · JOSEPH E. MARINO · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4REVIVALISM (USA) (5)KEVIN NAVARRO · JONATHAN B. BUCKLEY · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5ACTION SEEKER (USA) (2)REYLU GUTIERREZ · JON G. ARNETT · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7INTERSTATE (USA) (7)JEREMIAS FLORES · ANGEL DIAZ-VALDEZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8I'M SOLO N IN LOVE (USA) (4)JOEL CRUZ · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 4 · Finger Lakes · 11 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 11 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2RESIDE (USA)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · TIMOTHY P. MURPHY · draw 2 · pool — · market #1scr#4
  2. 3ANMOLO (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · NIRKA HUERTAS · draw 3 · pool — · market #2scr#8
  3. 1LUCEO NON URO (USA) (3)OSCAR GOMEZ · KATLYNN GUTTERSON · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 4JUST A GUY (USA) (6)JEREMIAS FLORES · DONNA BIRETA · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5EIGHT SUNSET DRIVE (USA) (7)JACQUELINE A. DAVIS · ROBERT W. COOK · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6WESTERN WOLF (USA) (4)JOEL CRUZ · JAMES S. ACQUILANO · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7MIDNIGHT MUSUME (USA) (5)BEN S. JOSEPH · RACHEL SELLS · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8IM GUNNA (USA) (8)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · TROY SMITH · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 9PLEX (USA) (1)LUIS E. PEREZ · DANA SAUL · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 10RENEW THE BLUE (USA) (2)JOSE BAEZ · DANA SAUL · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 11HONOR FOR MANDIN (USA) (9)OLAF HERNANDEZ · JOSE ARMANDO ROHENA · draw 11 · pool — · market #11—#99

Race 5 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3GRAYWING (USA)NAZARIO ALVARADO · EDUARDO E. JONES · draw 3 · pool — · market #1scr#7
  2. 1NOSTALGIA'S SMILE (USA) (5)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · TIMOTHY P. MURPHY · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2SIR KARTRITE (USA) (2)JOEL CRUZ · MICHELLE TASSO · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 4LORD KING (USA) (3)REYLU GUTIERREZ · LUIS GUTIERREZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5COIN JAR (USA) (4)JOSE BAEZ · DANA SAUL · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6IN THE CHASE (USA) (1)KEIBER J. COA · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7ISOMARSHALL (USA) (6)JACQUELINE A. DAVIS · THALIA ARECHE · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 6 · Finger Lakes · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Stakes, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4GOOD VINTAGE (USA)REYLU GUTIERREZ · AMELIA J. GREEN · draw 4 · pool — · market #1scr#8
  2. 1AUTHENTIC GINI (USA) (5)LUIS E. PEREZ · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2BELTANDSUSPENDERS (USA) (7)OSCAR GOMEZ · RACHEL SELLS · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3FINANCIAL STAR (USA) (4)KEIBER J. COA · RALPH D'ALESSANDRO · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5REDZONE GAL (USA) (3)JACQUELINE A. DAVIS · DEBRA A. BREED · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6COZZY TRICKSTRESS (USA) (1)KEVIN NAVARRO · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7PWR OF PERSISTENCE (USA) (6)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8MY BESTIE (USA) (1)SHAUN BRIDGMOHAN · MELANIE GIDDINGS · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 7 · Finger Lakes · 9 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
5The pickALZERO (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 1% · model 1.8% · REYLU GUTIERREZ
1Next bestMISSION CRITICAL (USA) (6)pool 0% · model 0.0% · JOEL CRUZ

ALZERO (USA) (Koşmaz) (5) is the pick: model 2% against a 1% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge +0.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MISSION CRITICAL (USA) (6) (1) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5ALZERO (USA)REYLU GUTIERREZ · H. JAMES BOND · draw 5 · pool 1% · market #1scr#9
  2. 1MISSION CRITICAL (USA) (6)JOEL CRUZ · JEREMIAH C. ENGLEHART · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2DUCKY MEDWICK (USA) (7)NAZARIO ALVARADO · LUIS GUTIERREZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3ROCKINMONEY (USA) (2)LUIS E. PEREZ · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4ASLEEP AT EIGHT (USA) (5)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · CHARLTON BAKER · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6SAVAGE STATE (USA) (4)CHRIS RUSSELL · JACQUELINE FALK · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7ROMANTIC CHARMER (USA) (8)KEIBER J. COA · RALPH D'ALESSANDRO · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 8MUSCLE SHOALS (USA) (1)OLAF HERNANDEZ · LUIS GUTIERREZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 9TRAFALGAR'S HERO (USA) (3)OSCAR GOMEZ · JON G. ARNETT · draw 9 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99

Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 6 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
6The pickSOMPATRA (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 14.5% · BRODY MARTINEZ
1Next bestTAPIT CHARM (USA) (1)pool 0% · model 0.0% · JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR

SOMPATRA (USA) (Koşmaz) (6) is the pick: model 14% against a 0% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge +14.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

TAPIT CHARM (USA) (1) (1) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6SOMPATRA (USA)BRODY MARTINEZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 6 · pool — · market #1scr#2
  2. 1TAPIT CHARM (USA) (1)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · TERRY VAUGHN · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 5JOGGER (USA) (3)SANTO SANJUR · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 5 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 4LUNAR SKY (USA) (5)HANNAH LEAHEY · DARLENE GREEN · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 2SWEET SAHARA (USA) (2)AMIR MENDOZA · TERRY VAUGHN · draw 2 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 3LIL SALVATION (USA) (4)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99

Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 7 runners

Usable
8½f Turf · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
1The pickPOLAR DRIFT (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 11.7% · ANDRES P. ULLOA
4Next bestVIENNA CHARM (USA) (3)pool 0% · model 0.0% · RODNEY A. PRESCOTT

POLAR DRIFT (USA) (Koşmaz) (1) is the pick: model 12% against a 0% pool share, 9 runs of US form on file, edge +11.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

VIENNA CHARM (USA) (3) (4) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1POLAR DRIFT (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 1 · pool — · market #1scr#4
  2. 4VIENNA CHARM (USA) (3)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · BRIAN WALTZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 7SPEIGHT KNIGHT (USA) (6)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 7 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3TURBEAU MAN (USA) (1)ALBERTO BURGOS · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 6GUNZO (USA) (2)BRODY MARTINEZ · DAWN MARTIN · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 2TURBO DUCK (USA) (5)HANNAH LEAHEY · TRACEY J. WISNER · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 5MR SLEDGE HAMMER (USA) (4)ALEX ACHARD · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 3 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Claiming Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1SOLSIA (USA)YOMAR ORTIZ, JR. · JOE SHARP · draw 1 · pool — · market #1scr#6
  2. 8ROCKSIE GIRL (USA) (3)AXEL CONCEPCION · WILLIAM WALDEN · draw 8 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 4CONGA (USA) (1)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · BRAD H. COX · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 6RUN KIKI RUN (USA) (2)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · BRAD H. COX · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 7CARMEL (USA) (4)ALEX ACHARD · RILEY MOTT · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 2DREAMLICIOUS (USA) (7)DECLAN CANNON · JOE SHARP · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 5FIRST LADYBUG (USA) (5)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · ROGELIO LABRA · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 3DAMA DIAMANTE (USA) (6)ANGEL SERPA · FELIPE SALAS · draw 3 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 12 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 10RIGOBERTO (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · GENNADI DOROCHENKO · draw 10 · pool — · market #1scr#2
  2. 9BANIDOSO (USA)DYLAN MACHADO · KELLY A. FERNANDEZ · draw 9 · pool — · market #2—#4
  3. 6SIERRA POWER (USA)SANTIAGO GONZALEZ · MICHEL DOUAIHY · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#6
  4. 4MR. SENSEI (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · REY HERNANDEZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#7
  5. 12LAVENDER EARL (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · CARLOS RAMIREZ · draw 12 · pool — · market #5—#10
  6. 5STRONGER TOGETHER (CAN)LUIS FUENMAYOR · TRACY ANDERSON · draw 5 · pool — · market #6scr#11
  7. 7AMERICAN BEAR (USA)YARMARIE L. CORREA · ISMAEL BAHENA · draw 7 · pool — · market #7scr#12
  8. 8MON AMI FUZZIE (USA) (5)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · JOSE G. RODRIGUEZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 1VIA DEL CORSO (USA) (1)BRODY MARTINEZ · HEATHER IRION · draw 1 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 2SEMINOLE BEACH (USA) (3)SAMUEL E BERMUDEZ · ANTHONY BLEA III · draw 2 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 11GIMMEETHREESTEPS (USA) (2)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 11 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 3ZAPPINIT (USA) (4)JOSE RIQUELME · EMMA JIMENEZ SANCHEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #12—#99

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Maiden · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 12 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3AMERICA WINS (USA)ALEX ACHARD · KARYN WITTEK · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#3
  2. 7IN THE BOOKS (USA)DYLAN MACHADO · VICTORIA H. OLIVER · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#4
  3. 12SHUGGY (USA)AXEL CONCEPCION · CHERIE DEVAUX · draw 12 · pool — · market #3—#6
  4. 9PATTERN APPROACH (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · JOHN HARAN · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#7
  5. 2WOLF DAKOTA (USA)WILLIAM ANTONGEORGI III · JUAN A. LOPEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #5scr#9
  6. 10TERRYSONTILT (USA)ANGEL SERPA · JUAN A. LOPEZ · draw 10 · pool — · market #6—#10
  7. 6OH MY GOOD LORD (USA)ADAM BESCHIZZA · CHERIE DEVAUX · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#12
  8. 5GUNS ALLOWED (USA) (2)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · BRAD H. COX · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 11EL RAMUNDO (USA) (5)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TROY NEWTON · draw 11 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 4APOLLO'S GLORY (USA) (1)LUAN MACHADO · ETHAN W. WEST · draw 4 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 1NAYAK (IRE) (3)MIA NICHOLLS · MARCELINO TORRES · draw 1 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 8RUNNING READY (USA) (4)ALBERTO BURGOS · ROBERT MEDINA · draw 8 · pool — · market #12—#99

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 11 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 11 of 11 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
10The pickSILVER STERLING (USA)pool 19% · model 20.7% · JOSHUA MORALES
9Next bestRANK RANDY (USA)pool 16% · model 18.5% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
6At a priceSAVE MY TOWN (USA)pool 13% · model 15.8% · MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR.

SILVER STERLING (USA) (10) is the pick: model 21% against a 19% pool share, 8 runs of US form on file, edge +1.9 points.

The pool makes YOUNG ANGUS (USA) (7) favourite at 20%; the model rates it 16%, so we overturn the favourite.

RANK RANDY (USA) (9) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, SAVE MY TOWN (USA) (6) carries +2.9 points of edge from a 13% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 10SILVER STERLING (USA)JOSHUA MORALES · ANTHONY F. CUNNINGHAM · draw 10 · pool 19% · market #2+1.9#1
  2. 9RANK RANDY (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 9 · pool 16% · market #3+2.7#2
  3. 7YOUNG ANGUS (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 7 · pool 20% · market #1-3.9#3
  4. 6SAVE MY TOWN (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · GENARO GARCIA · draw 6 · pool 13% · market #4+2.9#4
  5. 5Q'S GOT CLASS (USA)BRODY MARTINEZ · GENARO GARCIA · draw 5 · pool 7% · market #5+0.8#5
  6. 4FOREVER HOPE (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 4 · pool 6% · market #6-0.2#6
  7. 3EINSTEIN'S GHOST (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · JOHN HARAN · draw 3 · pool 5% · market #7-0.2#7
  8. 2PENITENT (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 2 · pool 5% · market #8-1.6#8
  9. 11DADE COUNTY (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · DAWN A. FONTENOT · draw 11 · pool 4% · market #9-1.0#9
  10. 8EL NUMERO UNO (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 8 · pool 3% · market #10-0.5#10
  11. 1CRAZY LEGS MIKE (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · JOHN HARAN · draw 1 · pool 3% · market #11-1.0#11

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
5The pickGREY ECLIPSE (USA)pool 43% · model 37.8% · JOSEPH D. RAMOS
6Next bestQ'S TOPNOTCH (USA)pool 17% · model 19.3% · JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR

GREY ECLIPSE (USA) (5) is the pick: model 38% against a 43% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge -5.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

Q'S TOPNOTCH (USA) (6) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5GREY ECLIPSE (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 5 · pool 43% · market #1-5.6#1
  2. 6Q'S TOPNOTCH (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · GENARO GARCIA · draw 6 · pool 17% · market #2+2.2#2
  3. 4ROCK CITY KID (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · SHANNON MCGOVERN · draw 4 · pool 12% · market #3+0.7#3
  4. 7PRAY FOR VICTORY (USA)IRVING MONCADA · KENIA HERNANDEZ · draw 7 · pool 8% · market #4-0.6#4
  5. 3FOOLS JESTER (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · JOHN HARAN · draw 3 · pool 6% · market #5+0.9#5
  6. 1STAR PROMISE (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 1 · pool 6% · market #6+0.7#6
  7. 9BOSS JUSTICE (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · KENIA HERNANDEZ · draw 9 · pool 3% · market #7+0.2#7
  8. 2TIME TO TOAST (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · FERNANDO BAHENA · draw 2 · pool 2% · market #8+0.8#8
  9. 8CRINGE (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · SCOTT D. MULLINS · draw 8 · pool 2% · market #9+0.6#9

Race 6 · Philadelphia · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1MI AMOL (USA)MELVIS GONZALEZ · JOSUE ARCE · draw 1 · pool — · market #1scr#6
  2. 2STONE COLD LORETO (USA) (3)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · MARYA K. MONTOYA · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 3SAND QUEEN (USA) (6)NOEL HERMAN · JACINTO SOLIS · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 4LIVINGINTHEMOMENT (USA) (4)MAGGLIO SANCHEZ · HUGO O. PADILLA · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5LADY AMELIE (USA) (5)INOEL BEATO · JOSE M. SANTAELLA-CALDERON · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6HART OF COUPELLA (USA) (7)DEXTER HADDOCK · HEROLD O. WHYLIE · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7ANITA GLASSOFWINE (USA) (2)JATNIEL RAMOS · ROBERTO J. ROSADO · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8WINNIE MAE (USA) (1)LUKE HOSKINS · KATHLEEN A. DEMASI · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 9VINO BELLATINA (USA) (8)ADAM BOWMAN · STEPHEN HAMILTON · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 1 · Mahoning Valley · 6 runners

Thin form
5½f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
3The pickRAGING CAJUN (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 12.1% · JOHN MCKEE
4Next bestGALANTINI (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 3% · model 4.1% · JAVIER TAVARES

RAGING CAJUN (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) is the pick: model 12% against a 0% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge +12.1 points.

The pool makes GALANTINI (USA) (Koşmaz) (4) favourite at 3%; the model rates it 4%, so we overturn the favourite.

GALANTINI (USA) (Koşmaz) (4) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3RAGING CAJUN (USA)JOHN MCKEE · JAMES M. WATKINS · draw 3 · pool — · market #2scr#4
  2. 4GALANTINI (USA)JAVIER TAVARES · JAMES M. WATKINS · draw 4 · pool 3% · market #1scr#6
  3. 1J J VALENTIN (USA) (3)ERIK BARBARAN · JEFFREY A. RADOSEVICH · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 2DRESS GOOD (USA) (2)DAVID J. HALDAR · KELLI MARTINEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 5GUNN'S ROAR (USA) (1)JOSE A. BRACHO · JEFFREY A. RADOSEVICH · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6DR. BUZZY (USA) (4)LUIS RAUL RIVERA · ANTHONY FARRIOR · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99

Race 6 · Mahoning Valley · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3SPANISH DOUBLOON (USA)JAVIER TAVARES · JAMES M. WATKINS · draw 3 · pool — · market #1scr#7
  2. 7ACE VENTURA (CHI)JUAN PABLO SILVA, JR. · RACHEL LYNN LOPEZ OLMEDA · draw 7 · pool — · market #2scr#8
  3. 1QUARANTINO (USA) (1)JEFFERSON SKERRETT · JEFFREY SKERRETT · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 2TRIKITRAKI (USA) (4)BRANDON TAPARA · JAY P. BERNARDINI · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4MCVICKER (USA) (3)JOSE A. BRACHO · CHARLIE LIVERS · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5ELUSIVE D'ORO (USA) (6)DAVID J. HALDAR · KELLI MARTINEZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6THANKS FRANK (USA) (5)LUIS RAUL RIVERA · NORMAN ROSE · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8LUCKY'S SECRET (USA) (7)JOE STOKES · KELLI MARTINEZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 9FOLLOW YOUR DREAM (USA) (2)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · RICHARD L. GENOVESE · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 8 · Mahoning Valley · 10 runners

Usable
8¼f Dirt · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
8The pickGHOST BIKE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 9.5% · JOSE A. BRACHO
3Next bestBROADWAY SKY (CAN) (Koşmaz)pool 2% · model 2.0% · ALEXANDER CHAVEZ

GHOST BIKE (USA) (Koşmaz) (8) is the pick: model 10% against a 0% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge +9.5 points.

The pool makes BROADWAY SKY (CAN) (Koşmaz) (3) favourite at 2%; the model rates it 2%, so we overturn the favourite.

BROADWAY SKY (CAN) (Koşmaz) (3) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 8GHOST BIKE (USA)JOSE A. BRACHO · GERALD A. CRAWFORD · draw 8 · pool — · market #2scr#5
  2. 3BROADWAY SKY (CAN)ALEXANDER CHAVEZ · MICHELLE WINTERS · draw 3 · pool 2% · market #1scr#10
  3. 1REINVEST (USA) (5)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · GARY L. JOHNSON · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 2ST. LOUIE LOUIE (USA) (7)RICARDO FELICIANO · BENNY R. FELICIANO · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4CULOIR (USA) (8)GUILLERMO RODRIGUEZ · ANDRES CAMBRAY · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5MAGIC MOVER (USA) (2)BRANDON TAPARA · JAY P. BERNARDINI · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 6PATRIARCHAL (USA) (6)HUMBERTO HALDAR · CARYN VECCHIO · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 7RUNWITHHEART (USA) (1)ANGEL I. DIAZ · CARYN VECCHIO · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 9RUNNINGFORJOY (USA) (4)LUIS RAUL RIVERA · KATY CHEEKS · draw 9 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99
  10. 10MASAKADO (USA) (3)JOSE E. VARGAS · RICHARD P. SILLAMAN · draw 10 · pool — · market #10+0.0#99

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Zia Park (1.35 runs/horse) · Mountaineer (1.00 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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