Race 7 · Santa Anita Parkpool vs model · Fri 9 Oct 2026
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 6TIGER OF THE SEA (USA)-1.724% · 26%
  2. 9MARLA HOOCH (USA)+0.218% · 18%
  3. 7PAVEL IS APPEALING (USA)+1.716% · 14%
  4. 4GOJE (USA)+0.89% · 8%
  5. 2GREEN ZONE (USA)-0.58% · 8%
  6. 3HELLO KID O KID O (USA)+0.16% · 6%
  7. 11DORIE MILLER (USA)-0.16% · 6%
Result pending · record

Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park picks — Sat 10 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

16 races today · 15 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 2 tracks0 usable of 16 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Fri 09 Oct 2026, 15:13 ET · permalink

Pools not open yet

The Turkish tote opens its win pool on these 16 US races on the morning of the card (it stays thin until close to post time). This page was written from the race cards alone; verdicts and pool shares fill in about an hour before each track’s first race, once the pool has formed. Meanwhile: yesterday's results · the record.

Today · Sat 10 Oct 2026

16 races across Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Gulfstream Park · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
7½f Turf · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6GOLD FOOT (USA)LEONEL REYES · SAM WILENSKY · draw 6 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3SEAVER (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · AMADOR MEREI SANCHEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4ORTUS (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · LISA L. LEWIS · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 7MYTHICAL MAN (CAN)DIEGO A. HERRERA · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 2EDDIE THE GREAT (USA)EDGAR PEREZ · GERALD S. BENNETT · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 5BAY OF BENGAL (USA)CARLOS MARTINEZ · CARLOS LUIS PEREZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 8GRAND DAVID (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · AMZADALI JEHALUDI · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 1GUILDENSTERN (IRE)JOSE E. MORELOS · JAVIER NEGRETE · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 9NEVER SAY NEVER (USA)RENZO ROJAS · FRANK SANTILLANA · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 10SOUPER LEGACY (USA)PEDRO MONTERREY, JR. · JAVIER NEGRETE · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 2 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6EXCUSES (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 6 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4RASKOLNIKOV (USA)LEONEL REYES · FAUSTO GUTIERREZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 2SUNDAY SONG (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · GARY G. JACKSON · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 7ACTION DELIGHT (USA)SONNY LEON · KATHLEEN O'CONNELL · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5TAPARINO (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · JENA M. ANTONUCCI · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 1SEA GOD (USA)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE M. CASTRO · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 3LAST SHALL B FIRST (USA)FELIX VASQUEZ, JR. · CLIFTON A. CHRISTIE · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 3 · Gulfstream Park · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2STARSHIP ICEMAN (USA)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 2 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 7FIFTEEN HUNDRED R (USA)LEONEL REYES · PEDRO GARCIA, JR. · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4RUDI (USA)RASHEED HUGHES · ANTONIO SANO · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 6HOLY COW (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · BRUNO TESSORE · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 1AMBERSSOHN (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 8LIGHTING ARROW (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · RODOLFO GARCIA · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 5TOM B THE GOAT (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · MANUEL CRIOLLO · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 3LORD HINENI (USA)JONATHAN SANTOS · HEATHER HARNEY · draw 3 · pool — · market #8—#8

Race 4 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6SOUFFLE ON FIRE (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 6 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 7ZARAFA (USA)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5ILIANA (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · FERNANDO ABREU · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 3LIST (USA)HERIBERTO FIGUEROA · TAREQ MOUBARAK · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 4TINKATWO (USA)YOLBER TORRES · MICHAEL YATES · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 1CALLING THE SHOTS (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 2MELODY FACTOR (USA)JONATHAN SANTOS · CARLOS NARVAEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 5 · Gulfstream Park · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4JAVA BUZZ (USA)LEONEL REYES · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3RACHEL'S COACH (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · RONALD COY · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 8HOTTAKEJAKE (USA)CIPRIANO GIL · TAREQ MOUBARAK · draw 8 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1NEOPHYTE (USA)ANTHONY THOMAS · MANNY REAL · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 7VELOCIRAPTOR (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · SEBASTIAN PULGARIN · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2MAITRE D (USA)JONATHAN SANTOS · BARRY N. CROFT · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 6BOLD N BREEZY (USA)CARLOS MARTINEZ · ANDY P. WILLIAMS · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 5READIER (USA)EDGAR PEREZ · LAURA CAZARES · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#8

Race 6 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
5f Dirt · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 3 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3FIREBALLER (USA)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1EARTHLY DELIGHTS (USA)RASHEED HUGHES · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5HANGMAN (USA)SONNY LEON · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 6CLASSIC ROADSTER (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 4SUBTLE SIR (USA)MARCOS MENESES · NICHOLAS PALMER · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2IRISH BRIGADE (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7SULTAN JAK (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · ANTONIO SANO · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 7 · Gulfstream Park · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
5f Turf · Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 12 of 12 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4AXTHELM (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · BOBBY S. DIBONA · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 5ITZA BOSS (USA)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 5 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 3ESPERON (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · J. DAVID BRADDY · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2EXTENDO (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 11THREE ZERO (USA)NIK JUAREZ · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 11 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 10GUNS LOADED (USA)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 10 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 9MATTINGLY (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 9 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 7SOUPER QUEST (USA)SONNY LEON · MARK E. CASSE · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 6ROUKI (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · GERALD S. BENNETT · draw 6 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 1FULL DISCLOSURE (USA)MARCOS MENESES · AMZADALI JEHALUDI · draw 1 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 12AJAAYB (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · JUAN D. ARIAS · draw 12 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 8NAUGHTY RASCAL (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · GERALD S. BENNETT · draw 8 · pool — · market #12—#12

Race 8 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5BLUE SLIDE PARK (USA)LEONEL REYES · PEDRO GARCIA, JR. · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3WANNABEELOVED (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · AMADOR MEREI SANCHEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6JADES JAY (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · FREDERICK B. LABO · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2DIME PAPI (USA)JONATHAN SANTOS · PEDRO GARCIA, JR. · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 4OASIS PRINCE (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · COLLIN MARAGH · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 7SIMO (USA)YOLBER TORRES · GEORGINA BAXTER · draw 7 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 1SPEED CONTROL (USA)WESLEY HENRY · MANUEL CRIOLLO · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 1 · Santa Anita Park · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Turf · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7MATT AT FIVE (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · PETER MILLER · draw 7 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2PRIVATE GEM (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · MARK GLATT · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4GRUBAUER (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · MARK GLATT · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 6LEGAL HEIR (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · VANN BELVOIR · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3BRIGHT EYE BUNGLE (IRE)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 5DECAPO (USA)TYLER BAZE · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 1VALIANT SON (USA)KYLE FREY · BLAINE D. WRIGHT · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 2 · Santa Anita Park · 5 runners

NO POOL YET
7f Dirt · Maiden · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 5 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1COLLMUS (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · BOB BAFFERT · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 5CHEEVER (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · MARK GLATT · draw 5 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4ROAST (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2LANK (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · BOB BAFFERT · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3UNDER THE BIG SKY (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · RICHARD BALTAS · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5

Race 3 · Santa Anita Park · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 9MAGGLES MCGEE (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 9 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3CLUBHOUSE BRIDE (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · ANDY MATHIS · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5MENDELSSOHNS ANGEL (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · BRENDAN W. GALVIN · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 8NELL'S LEGACY (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 8 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 4TROISIEME ETOILE (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 10RYAN'S GIRL (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · GENARO VALLEJO · draw 10 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 6WILD WEST COAST (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · NEIL D. DRYSDALE · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 7BESSIE COLEMAN (USA)KYLE FREY · STEVEN MIYADI · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 1WHOPPER FACTOR (USA)TYLER BAZE · MONTY R. MEIER · draw 1 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 2A GREAT SHAKING (USA)ADRIAN ESCOBEDO · RYAN HANSON · draw 2 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 4 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

NO POOL YET
7f Dirt · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 6 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4MIDWAY LANE (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3RED FLAG (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · JEFF MULLINS · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6MR. DISRESPECTFUL (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · CRAIG DOLLASE · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1NATIVE LAND (USA)MIKE E. SMITH · SEAN WILLIAMS · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5HONKY TONK HIGHWAY (USA)KYLE FREY · MICK RUIS, SR. · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2MIDNIGHT MAMMOTH (USA)TYLER BAZE · CRAIG DOLLASE · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6

Race 5 · Santa Anita Park · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4ELLEN JORTH (USA)JAMIE P. SPENCER · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2SACRED SOUND (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · PETER MILLER · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6THE LOAN EXCHANGE (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 10ANDIAMO RAGAZZA (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · STEVE M. SHERMAN · draw 10 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 1FAMOUS FORZA (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · BILL MCLEAN · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 7MISS KONA (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · PETER EURTON · draw 7 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 3BILLIE HOLIDAY (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · STEVEN MIYADI · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 5DONTTELLMEWHATTODO (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 8BROOKYS GAL (USA)FRANCISCO MONROY · ISIDRO TAMAYO · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 9CALIFORNIA ROCKS (USA)JOSE VALDIVIA, JR. · DANIEL DUNHAM · draw 9 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 6 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 6 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4TAKE REVENGE (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · CRAIG ANTHONY LEWIS · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 7VEGAS DEL ORO (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6LIHUE PRINCESS (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 3I'M SMOKEN HOT (USA)TYLER BAZE · VAL BRINKERHOFF · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 1LOVE YOU BUNCHES (USA)ADRIAN ESCOBEDO · RYAN HANSON · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 8SPICY SMILE (USA)EPIFANIO GARCIA · D. WAYNE BAKER · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 5SMOKEM JEANNINE (USA)WELFIN R. ORANTES · EDWIN G. ALVAREZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 2MAMA LOVES VEGAS (USA)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · VAL BRINKERHOFF · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#8

Race 7 · Santa Anita Park · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Turf · Maiden · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1THE MAX FACTOR (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · MARK GLATT · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3THROWTHEFIRSTPUNCH (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 8JOE VITTORI (USA)VICTOR ESPINOZA · JOSE R. VALDEZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 6HE'S PROOF OF JOY (USA)CRISTOBAL HERRERA · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 10SIRNAMI (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · LEONARD POWELL · draw 10 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 9GOING NOWHERE (USA)WELFIN R. ORANTES · RYAN HANSON · draw 9 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 5BELLO ROSSO (USA)KYLE FREY · BRENDAN W. GALVIN · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 7SIR DAGONET (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · DANIEL DUNHAM · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 4FAIR QUESTION (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · BRIAN J. KORINER · draw 4 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 2MORDRED'S REVENGE (USA)EPIFANIO GARCIA · D. WAYNE BAKER · draw 2 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 8 · Santa Anita Park · 13 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 13 of 13 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1PRIDE OF QUEENS (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 5REMEMBER APRIL (USA)WELFIN R. ORANTES · TIM YAKTEEN · draw 5 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 11BUSY MAKING MUNNY (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · TIM MCCANNA · draw 11 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2DRAGON KAT (USA)EDGAR PAYERAS · LORENZO CAMPUZANO · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 10KAMBREE'S FLYER (USA)VICTOR ESPINOZA · DANIEL M. JENSEN · draw 10 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 8SEXY BLUE (USA)ABEL LEZCANO · ANGEL VEGA · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 6SUSIE'S LOADED (USA)DAVID CHARLES LOPEZ · ISIDRO TAMAYO · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 4DARLIN TAMI (USA)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · JEFF BONDE · draw 4 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 12VRONAWAY (USA)EPIFANIO GARCIA · D. WAYNE BAKER · draw 12 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 13MISCHIEVOUS BEV (USA)KYLE FREY · ADAM KITCHINGMAN · draw 13 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 9SUGAREE (USA)JEREMY LAPRIDA · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 9 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 7LOVE LOCK (USA)FRANCISCO MONROY · ISIDRO TAMAYO · draw 7 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 3MARVELOUSMISSMABEL (USA)CRISTOBAL HERRERA · LUIS MENDEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #13—#13

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Keeneland (1.15 runs/horse) · Belmont Park (1.02 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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