Race 7 · Mahoning Valleypool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 1RUNAWAY POWER (USA) (1)+0.00% · 0%
  2. 2OL' NELSON (USA) (5)+0.00% · 0%
  3. 3WORKSTATION (USA) (2)+0.00% · 0%
  4. 4TAP THE WIND (USA) (6)+0.00% · 0%
  5. 6AFFAIR TO REMEMBER (USA) (3)+0.00% · 0%
  6. 7BALKI BARTOKOMOUS (USA) (7)+0.00% · 0%
  7. 8SPECTACULAR D'ORO (USA) (4)+0.00% · 0%
SGT YORK (USA) (Koşmaz) is the pick: model 14% against a 12% pool share · verdict ↓

Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Mahoning Valley picks — Tue 10 Nov 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →🏇 Run the race →

17 races today · 47 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Tue 10 Nov 2026 · 4 tracks4 usable of 17 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Tue 10 Nov 2026, 17:15 ET · permalink

9 of 17 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Tue 10 Nov 2026

17 races across Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Mahoning Valley. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners

Blind
5½f Dirt · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 1 of 7 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 2ZOLFO (USA)JEREMIAS FLORES · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 2 · pool 15% · market #1scr#4
  2. 1UNEVEN NUMBERS (USA)NAZARIO ALVARADO · LINDA K. DIXON · draw 1 · pool 2% · market #2scr#6
  3. 3ROCKIN RED (USA) (3)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · JEREMIAH C. ENGLEHART · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 4RAGING WAR (USA) (4)J. M. ROHENA · CHRIS J. ENGLEHART · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5MAJOR CONFIDENCE (USA) (2)KEIBER J. COA · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6KEEPMEINNY (USA) (1)JOEL CRUZ · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7BONNET ROUGE (USA) (5)BEN S. JOSEPH · MATTHEW CLARKE · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 2 · Finger Lakes · 6 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Allowance, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
5The pickINTERSTATELOVESONG (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 2% · model 5.1% · RAJIV MARAGH
1Next bestPRANCIN INTHE DARK (USA) (5)pool 0% · model 0.0% · LUIS E. PEREZ

INTERSTATELOVESONG (USA) (Koşmaz) (5) is the pick: model 5% against a 2% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +3.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

PRANCIN INTHE DARK (USA) (5) (1) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5INTERSTATELOVESONG (USA)RAJIV MARAGH · THOMAS MORLEY · draw 5 · pool 2% · market #1scr#6
  2. 1PRANCIN INTHE DARK (USA) (5)LUIS E. PEREZ · JON G. ARNETT · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2PAULA'S A STAR (USA) (3)REYLU GUTIERREZ · THOMAS MORLEY · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3ANGEL GIFT (USA) (1)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · JEREMIAH C. ENGLEHART · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4DANIELLA MARIE (USA) (2)JEREMIAS FLORES · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6HONEST REASON (USA) (4)NAZARIO ALVARADO · LINDA K. DIXON · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99

Race 4 · Finger Lakes · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3PURE ELEGANCE (USA)LUIS E. PEREZ · ILMAR LOAIZA · draw 3 · pool — · market #1scr#2
  2. 6BUSTINROXY (USA)STEVEN FRET · ESKEI E. BEECH · draw 6 · pool — · market #2scr#7
  3. 1SWEET TOOTH SUE (USA) (8)BEN S. JOSEPH · JOSEPH E. MARINO · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 2ONLY IN MY DREAMS (USA) (2)OSCAR GOMEZ · DAVID OYOLA · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4IN TRAFFIC (USA) (5)JEREMIAS FLORES · DAVID M. RIVERA · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5TEKILA (USA) (1)JOEL CRUZ · JONATHAN B. BUCKLEY · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7PEGGY RULES (USA) (6)OLAF HERNANDEZ · JON G. ARNETT · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8HYPNOCURRENCY (USA) (3)REYLU GUTIERREZ · JAMES MILLER PETTINE · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 9LADY BANKER (USA) (7)JOSE VENTURA · RALPH D'ALESSANDRO · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 10MAIZE LOVED LAFFY (USA) (4)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · JOSEPH E. MARINO · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#99

Race 3 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 13 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 1 of 13 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2SOVEREIGN STRIDE (USA)BRODY MARTINEZ · GENARO GARCIA · draw 2 · pool — · market #1scr#5
  2. 8UNDERESTIMATED (USA) (8)ORLANDO MOJICA · DANIEL SIMPSON · draw 8 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 5HOT DAWG (USA) (12)ALBERTO BURGOS · RICHARD ESTVANKO · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3MESDEMON (USA) (9)CARLOS JIMENEZ · MARCELINO TORRES · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 13SHE RAN (USA) (4)VICTOR R. CARRASCO · GEORGE R. ARNOLD II · draw 13 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 12FURIOUS ANGEL (USA) (7)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · BRIAN WALTZ · draw 12 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7VELVET CROWN (USA) (2)MARCELINO PEDROZA · NICHOLAS VACCAREZZA · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 9DELIGHTFUL BEAUTY (USA) (6)MICAH MEEKS · ERICK ALEXANDER TORRES · draw 9 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 1MISS BYERLEY (USA) (5)ALEX ACHARD · RILEY MOTT · draw 1 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 4MURASAKI (USA) (11)EVIN ROMAN · AMARA KRANZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 6OH BONITA (USA) (10)IRVING MONCADA · CIRILO GOROSTIETA · draw 6 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 10NINETALES (USA) (3)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · CORIE ANDERSON · draw 10 · pool — · market #12—#99
  13. 11TIGRA (USA) (1)DANNY SHEEHY · JIMMY CORRIGAN · draw 11 · pool — · market #13—#99

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
8½f Turf · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 12 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6WINERY (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · KRISTINE M. KAUFELD · draw 6 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 9GARRYOWEN (USA)SUMMER PAULY · ED MOGER, JR. · draw 9 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 2MIDNITE IN FINLEY (USA)JANE ELLIOTT · MICHAEL ANN EWING · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#7
  4. 11CHEF RAY WILEY (USA)BRODY MARTINEZ · JOHN REDNOUR, JR. · draw 11 · pool — · market #4—#8
  5. 8ADAM FIVE OH (USA)ANGEL ORTEGA STANLEY · ROBERT POMPELL · draw 8 · pool — · market #5—#9
  6. 3SOMETHINTOBELIEVEN (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ROBERT POMPELL · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#10
  7. 1ONLY FRANK KNOWS (USA)JOSE RIQUELME · JOSE PAYE · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#12
  8. 4MORAL MAN (USA) (2)ORLANDO MOJICA · DANIEL SIMPSON · draw 4 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 5PLAYONWORDS (USA) (1)ALEX ACHARD · KARYN WITTEK · draw 5 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 12CULTURE WAR (USA) (3)ALBERTO BURGOS · ROBERT MEDINA · draw 12 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 7MI COMPADRE (USA) (4)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · BRIAN WILLIAMSON · draw 7 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 10KNICKS N STONES (USA) (5)SANTIAGO GONZALEZ · KATHY JARVIS · draw 10 · pool — · market #12—#99

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 13 runners

NO POOL YET
8½f Turf · Allowance, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 13 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 9PRAYER UNBRIDLED (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · TERRY PHILLIPS · draw 9 · pool — · market #1scr#1
  2. 11GOODY TWO SOCKS (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 11 · pool — · market #2scr#2
  3. 6SPOOKY RIDGE (USA)ALEX ACHARD · JOHN L. LANGEMEIER · draw 6 · pool — · market #3scr#6
  4. 13PAY ME LATER (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 13 · pool — · market #4scr#7
  5. 10PINK PICTURE (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · ROGELIO LABRA · draw 10 · pool — · market #5—#9
  6. 2INSTILLED ZIP (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #6scr#10
  7. 3COUNTRY EMBRACE (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #7scr#11
  8. 12KABOOM (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 12 · pool — · market #8scr#12
  9. 8SWISS MERINGUE (USA)DANNY SHEEHY · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#13
  10. 7TIZ WINE TIME (USA) (2)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 4JACK'S SUMMER (USA) (1)AMIR MENDOZA · ROBERT C. STURGEON · draw 4 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 1I FORGOT IT (USA) (4)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · RICKY J. SHORT · draw 1 · pool — · market #12—#99
  13. 5INNISFREE LASS (USA) (3)ALBERTO BURGOS · JOHN HARAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #13—#99

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 13 runners

Usable
8¼f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 11 of 13 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
9The pickMASTER MUNNINGS (USA)pool 18% · model 17.7% · YOMAR ORTIZ, JR.
12Next bestFOLLOW THE MONEY (USA)pool 13% · model 14.9% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ

MASTER MUNNINGS (USA) (9) is the pick: model 18% against a 18% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -0.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

FOLLOW THE MONEY (USA) (12) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 9MASTER MUNNINGS (USA)YOMAR ORTIZ, JR. · JOE SHARP · draw 9 · pool 18% · market #1-0.5#1
  2. 12FOLLOW THE MONEY (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 12 · pool 13% · market #4+1.8#2
  3. 5MOONRISE DRIVE (USA)BRODY MARTINEZ · CHERYL WINEBAUGH · draw 5 · pool 16% · market #2-1.7#3
  4. 4GETTYSBURG ADDRESS (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 4 · pool 15% · market #3-3.8#4
  5. 11FERVENT PRAYER (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 11 · pool 10% · market #6+0.5#5
  6. 7CHEESESTEAK (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 7 · pool 11% · market #5-1.2#6
  7. 13STRONGER TOGETHER (CAN)LUIS FUENMAYOR · TRACY ANDERSON · draw 13 · pool — · market #13scr#7
  8. 8HANDSOFFTHEGOODS (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · IRVIN MORENO · draw 8 · pool 3% · market #8+1.3#8
  9. 3HALTER BOY (USA)SARA HESS · JERRY DIXON, JR. · draw 3 · pool 5% · market #7-0.9#9
  10. 6VACCINATOR (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · MICHAEL S. HAYES · draw 6 · pool 3% · market #9-0.3#10
  11. 10VERRAZANOINTHESKY (USA)SANTO SANJUR · JOEL MARTINEZ · draw 10 · pool 2% · market #10+0.1#11
  12. 1PARKER (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · AGUSTIN GONZALEZ, JR. · draw 1 · pool 2% · market #11+0.0#12
  13. 2FRANCHUCHIE (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · GREGORY R. BLAND · draw 2 · pool 1% · market #12+0.2#13

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
2The pickSIR GALLIVANT (USA)pool 60% · model 44.2% · AMIR MENDOZA
6Next bestSCOTTY'S ON EDGE (USA)pool 13% · model 15.2% · MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR.
5At a priceTAZZY (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 6.8% · SANTO SANJUR

SIR GALLIVANT (USA) (2) is the pick: model 44% against a 60% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge -15.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SCOTTY'S ON EDGE (USA) (6) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, TAZZY (USA) (Koşmaz) (5) carries +6.8 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2SIR GALLIVANT (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 2 · pool 60% · market #1-15.8#1
  2. 6SCOTTY'S ON EDGE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · GENARO GARCIA · draw 6 · pool 13% · market #2+2.2#2
  3. 8SWEET LA CREMA (USA)BRODY MARTINEZ · ADRIAN M. SALAZAR · draw 8 · pool 12% · market #3+1.0#3
  4. 7JUILLIARD (USA)ANGEL ORTEGA STANLEY · PAT CLAY · draw 7 · pool 5% · market #4+2.4#4
  5. 5TAZZY (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #8scr#5
  6. 3HEALING WATERS (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · JOHN HARAN · draw 3 · pool 5% · market #5+1.3#6
  7. 1GIN AND WHISKEY (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · DEVARUS DOUGLASS · draw 1 · pool 4% · market #6+0.8#7
  8. 4BUREAU (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · FERNANDO BAHENA · draw 4 · pool 1% · market #7+1.3#8

Race 1 · Philadelphia · 7 runners

Thin form
5½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
6The pickCALIFORNIA SMOKE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 3% · model 2.6% · RUBEN SILVERA
1Next bestCRIMSON RED (USA) (3)pool 0% · model 0.0% · ELISEO RUIZ

CALIFORNIA SMOKE (USA) (Koşmaz) (6) is the pick: model 3% against a 3% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -0.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

CRIMSON RED (USA) (3) (1) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6CALIFORNIA SMOKE (USA)RUBEN SILVERA · ERNESTO PADILLA-PRECIADO · draw 6 · pool 3% · market #1scr#7
  2. 1CRIMSON RED (USA) (3)ELISEO RUIZ · WAYNE POTTS · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2DISCO HOPP (USA) (5)NOEL HERMAN · HUGO O. PADILLA · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3SUSHI (USA) (1)SEBASTIAN ORELLANA · JORGE DIAZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4NO DENYING (USA) (4)CAMILA HARGROVE · DANIEL VELAZQUEZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5MONA L (USA) (6)MAGGLIO SANCHEZ · J. GUADALUPE GUERRERO · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7NO MO MUFFINS (USA) (2)MELVIS GONZALEZ · ELLIOTT SOTO- MARTINEZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 2 · Philadelphia · 7 runners

Thin form
6½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
3The pickCLOUT CHASER (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 12.1% · CAMILA HARGROVE
1Next bestTAKE TIME TO DREAM (USA) (3)pool 0% · model 0.0% · KENDRY RIVERA

CLOUT CHASER (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) is the pick: model 12% against a 0% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +12.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

TAKE TIME TO DREAM (USA) (3) (1) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3CLOUT CHASER (USA)CAMILA HARGROVE · URIAH ST. LEWIS · draw 3 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 1TAKE TIME TO DREAM (USA) (3)KENDRY RIVERA · ANGEL DELVALLE · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2VIOLETS SMILE (USA) (2)ANGEL CASTILLO · TREVOR GALLIMORE · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 4CHARM OF THE SONG (USA) (1)DEXTER HADDOCK · JACINTO SOLIS · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 5BERTIE'S CAUSE (USA) (4)RAMON MOYA · ROBERT T. PATERNO · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6SHINES MADELIN (USA) (6)INOEL BEATO · JOSE M. SANTAELLA-CALDERON · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7SHE'S A GEM (USA) (5)SEBASTIAN ORELLANA · JUAN CARLOS GUERRERO · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 3 · Philadelphia · 6 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 6 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3LE MIDI'S TREASURE (USA)KENDRY RIVERA · ERNESTO PADILLA-PRECIADO · draw 3 · pool — · market #1scr#1
  2. 5AD MAJORA (USA)INOEL BEATO · JOSE M. SANTAELLA-CALDERON · draw 5 · pool — · market #2scr#2
  3. 1MOR CHEESE PLEASE (USA) (1)ABNER ADORNO · HUGO O. PADILLA · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 2GLIDER INFANTRY (USA) (3)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · MARYA K. MONTOYA · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4QUETZAL ISLAND (USA) (2)SILVESTRE GONZALEZ · ILIAS TAPSAS · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6IT'S AUTHENTIC (USA) (4)ANDREW WOLFSONT · SUSAN L. CROWELL · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99

Race 5 · Philadelphia · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 10CAPT FLUFF N STUFF (USA)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · KATHLEEN A. DEMASI · draw 10 · pool — · market #1scr#1
  2. 1MY BOX OF LIGHT (USA)RUBEN SILVERA · ERNESTO PADILLA-PRECIADO · draw 1 · pool — · market #2scr#2
  3. 2LIL OVIEDO FIRE (USA) (8)PATRICK HENRY, JR. · ALEXIS ROMERO · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3CHANGE YOUR BOOTS (USA) (2)SILVESTRE GONZALEZ · BOBBI ANNE HAWTHORNE · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4TAP THE DEVIL (USA) (5)ANGEL CASTILLO · TREVOR GALLIMORE · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5WORLD WIDE WEB (USA) (1)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · ILIAS TAPSAS · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6MY LITTLE NICO G (USA) (4)LUKE HOSKINS · CLAUDIO A. GONZALEZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 7MATZOBALL MUHAMMET (USA) (3)JATNIEL RAMOS · TONY PEREZ FLORES · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 8POWERED BY RAGE (USA) (7)JOEZER RANGEL · ALAN BEDARD · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 9ROGUE PRINCE (USA) (6)ELISEO RUIZ · WAYNE POTTS · draw 9 · pool — · market #10—#99

Race 8 · Philadelphia · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
7f Dirt · Stakes, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7ANGIE'S REWARD (USA)RUBEN SILVERA · ERNESTO PADILLA-PRECIADO · draw 7 · pool — · market #1scr#4
  2. 1LADY ANNABELLE (USA) (1)SILVESTRE GONZALEZ · ERNESTO PADILLA-PRECIADO · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2MARY Q (USA) (3)ELISEO RUIZ · MICHAEL M. MOORE · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3CAROUSEL QUEEN (USA) (4)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · SCOTT A. LAKE · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4AOIFE'S MAGIC (USA) (6)FRANKIE PENNINGTON · DAVID DOTOLO · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5NATURE'S CANDY (USA) (2)ANDY HERNANDEZ · HUGO O. PADILLA · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6PRESENCEISAPRESENT (USA) (5)JORGE A. VARGAS, JR. · JUAN CARLOS GUERRERO · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 1 · Mahoning Valley · 7 runners

Thin form
8f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
7The pickMOBIL MEMORY (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 1% · model 2.4% · ELIJAH GREENIDGE
1Next bestI BELONG FIRST (USA) (4)pool 0% · model 0.0% · JOSE A. BRACHO

MOBIL MEMORY (USA) (Koşmaz) (7) is the pick: model 2% against a 1% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge +1.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

I BELONG FIRST (USA) (4) (1) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7MOBIL MEMORY (USA)ELIJAH GREENIDGE · GARY L. JOHNSON · draw 7 · pool 1% · market #1scr#7
  2. 1I BELONG FIRST (USA) (4)JOSE A. BRACHO · JUSTIN RADOSEVICH · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2KAT TRAX (USA) (2)GERARDO CORRALES · NESTOR R. RIVERA · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3WATCH ME DADDY (USA) (6)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · ROBERT C. CLINE · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4OUR LAST SONG (USA) (1)DESHAWN L. PARKER · JOHANNA URIETA · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5NANCYFROMTHEBLOCK (USA) (3)JEFFERSON SKERRETT · RICHARD L. GENOVESE · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 6HIGH FIRE (USA) (5)JASON SIMPSON · GARY L. JOHNSON · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 4 · Mahoning Valley · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1ANGEL WINGS (USA)HUMBERTO HALDAR · IVAN CALDERON · draw 1 · pool — · market #1scr#7
  2. 2ALL ABOUT ME (USA) (3)CHELSEY KEISER · JULIE A. PAPPADA · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 3LADY GIULIANA (USA) (6)JEFFERSON SKERRETT · JEFFREY SKERRETT · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 4STARCOURT (USA) (2)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · RICHARD L. GENOVESE · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5TIMELY SECRET (USA) (1)VICTOR R. FERNANDEZ · JOHANNA URIETA · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6HERO QUEEN (USA) (5)JASON SIMPSON · LORI LOUDIN-SMITH · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7AMADORA'S EMPIRE (USA) (4)LUIS RAUL RIVERA · ANTHONY FARRIOR · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8FLOAT AWAY (USA) (7)LUIS ALBERTO BATISTA · LORENZO JUAREZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 6 · Mahoning Valley · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 9DUCALE (USA)HUMBERTO HALDAR · AMY SONDEJ · draw 9 · pool — · market #1scr#9
  2. 1BINGO'S GRIND (USA) (4)HELEN MARIE VANEK · NICK GUY MILENI, JR. · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2SUNDAESWITHSANDY (USA) (6)DESHAWN L. PARKER · MARCO CCAMAQUE · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3ALL MY LIFE (USA) (1)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · CARYN VECCHIO · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4GAMBOLING GHOST (USA) (5)JEROME J. INNIS · JASON DACOSTA · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5SIMPLY VALID (USA) (2)LUIS ALBERTO BATISTA · JOSE ATALA · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6BUCKET LIST (USA) (3)VICTOR R. FERNANDEZ · JOSEPH P. MAHAN · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 7CLASS ACTOR (USA) (8)ELIJAH GREENIDGE · JAMI C. POOLE · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 8STAR WEAVER (USA) (7)ALEXANDER CHAVEZ · AMY SONDEJ · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 7 · Mahoning Valley · 8 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
5The pickSGT YORK (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 12% · model 14.4% · ERIK BARBARAN
1Next bestRUNAWAY POWER (USA) (1)pool 0% · model 0.0% · FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA

SGT YORK (USA) (Koşmaz) (5) is the pick: model 14% against a 12% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge +2.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

RUNAWAY POWER (USA) (1) (1) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5SGT YORK (USA)ERIK BARBARAN · SHANE MEYERS · draw 5 · pool 12% · market #1scr#4
  2. 1RUNAWAY POWER (USA) (1)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · ROBERT C. CLINE · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2OL' NELSON (USA) (5)REYNALDO DUMONT · RICHARD L. GENOVESE · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3WORKSTATION (USA) (2)HUMBERTO HALDAR · JASON DACOSTA · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4TAP THE WIND (USA) (6)CHELSEY KEISER · RICHARD ZIELINSKI · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6AFFAIR TO REMEMBER (USA) (3)JEFFERSON SKERRETT · RICHARD L. GENOVESE · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7BALKI BARTOKOMOUS (USA) (7)ALEJANDRO GOMEZ, JR. · REY JUAREZ-MENDOZA · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 8SPECTACULAR D'ORO (USA) (4)GERARDO CORRALES · DAVID WOLOCHUK · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Zia Park (1.35 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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