Race 8 · Santa Anita Parkpool vs model · Sat 10 Oct 2026
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 1PRIDE OF QUEENS (USA)+2.022% · 20%
  2. 13MISCHIEVOUS BEV (USA)-5.016% · 21%
  3. 11BUSY MAKING MUNNY (USA)+0.014% · 14%
  4. 8SEXY BLUE (USA)-0.19% · 9%
  5. 5REMEMBER APRIL (USA)+1.28% · 7%
  6. 4DARLIN TAMI (USA)-0.58% · 8%
  7. 6SUSIE'S LOADED (USA)+0.35% · 5%
Result pending · record

Santa Anita Park picks — Sun 11 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

8 races today · 16 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 1 track0 usable of 8 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Sat 10 Oct 2026, 17:03 ET · permalink

Pools not open yet

The Turkish tote opens its win pool on these 8 US races on the morning of the card (it stays thin until close to post time). This page was written from the race cards alone; verdicts and pool shares fill in about an hour before each track’s first race, once the pool has formed. Meanwhile: yesterday's results · the record.

Today · Sun 11 Oct 2026

8 races across Santa Anita Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Santa Anita Park · 11 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Turf · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 4 of 11 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6KLAEBO (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · MARK GLATT · draw 6 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1OCEAN CLUB (IRE)UMBERTO RISPOLI · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5JIMMY'S WINCHESTER (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 11MAGIC TIME (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 11 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3SIP IT (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2ANOTHER WARRIOR (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · PETER MILLER · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 10SUMMER MISCHIEF (USA)KYLE FREY · JEFF MULLINS · draw 10 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 9KING ANUNOBY (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 9 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 8CHARACTER (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · PETER MILLER · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 4SAVVY MOTIVE (USA)JULIEN R. LEPAROUX · NEIL D. DRYSDALE · draw 4 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 7MYSTIC STAY (USA)JOSE VALDIVIA, JR. · EDWIN G. ALVAREZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #11—#11

Race 2 · Santa Anita Park · 5 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 0 of 5 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1BOLD TYPE (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · BOB BAFFERT · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2KIVO (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · BOB BAFFERT · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 3MY MEMORY (USA)MIKE E. SMITH · MARK GLATT · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 4CYPRUS AVENUE (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · ANDY MATHIS · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5UNLEASHED AMBITION (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · ADAM KITCHINGMAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5

Race 3 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Turf · OPSIYONEL Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 6 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3WANDERING KIRBY (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · LEONARD POWELL · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 5SYNTAX (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 5 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1TAM'S LITTLE ANGEL (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · HECTOR O. PALMA · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2EVA LEA (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · BILL MCLEAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 4LA CHISMOSA (USA)TYLER BAZE · PAULA S. CAPESTRO · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 6FALABELLA (USA)CRISTOBAL HERRERA · CHARLES S. TREECE · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#6

Race 4 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5HERE FOR THE BOOS (USA)ABEL LEZCANO · MARK GLATT · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 7CHERRY CANDY (USA)KYLE FREY · VAL BRINKERHOFF · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1CINDYS BEACH HOUSE (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · BILL MCLEAN · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 3DEBBY'S GAL (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · RICHARD BALTAS · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 4ICONS ONLY (USA)TYLER BAZE · RYAN HANSON · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 6SHE SPENDSALOT (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · BILL MCLEAN · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 8SWIMMINGLY (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · AGGIE ORDONEZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 2DARLIN' DUCHESS (USA)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · VAL BRINKERHOFF · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#8

Race 5 · Santa Anita Park · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 12 of 12 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 9MOTET (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · PETER MILLER · draw 9 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2CHILLY PHILLY (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · TIM YAKTEEN · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 10WILDFIRE PRINCESS (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · ROBERT B. HESS, JR. · draw 10 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1WITH LOVE (GB)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6ETERNAL REIGN (IRE)KAZUSHI KIMURA · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 8SAKURA FLAVOR (IRE)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · IAN KRULJAC · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7ANYWAYTHEWINDBLOWS (GB)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · PAUL G. AGUIRRE · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 5ALERAMO (IRE)JULIEN R. LEPAROUX · ROBERT B. HESS, JR. · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 12ELITE HEAT (GB)ARMANDO AYUSO · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 12 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 3BEAR'S BOARD (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · JORGE FARIAS · draw 3 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 11DUSTEM TOO (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 11 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 4GIGGLE GIGGLE (USA)EPIFANIO GARCIA · D. WAYNE BAKER · draw 4 · pool — · market #12—#12

Race 6 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4UNUSUAL CRAVING (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · JEFF MULLINS · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3LAST CHANCE DARCY (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · AGGIE ORDONEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5GRIEVOUS ANGEL (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 8JUST MENDELSSOHN (USA)KYLE FREY · BRENDAN W. GALVIN · draw 8 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 7STYLISH COLLEEN (USA)ABEL LEZCANO · RYAN HANSON · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 6BIG WHOOSH (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · DANIEL AZCARATE · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 2NICO DIJO (USA)CRISTOBAL HERRERA · ISIDRO TAMAYO · draw 2 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 1HOWMANYMORETIMES (USA)DAVID CHARLES LOPEZ · DANIEL AZCARATE · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#8

Race 7 · Santa Anita Park · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Maiden · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1YEP (GB)UMBERTO RISPOLI · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2HAZAKA (FR)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4BRAWLER (USA)JAMIE P. SPENCER · JONATHAN THOMAS · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 3POSTMODERN (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · MARK GLATT · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5TIMAYYYY (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 9CORKSCREW ANDY (USA)TYLER BAZE · RICHARD E. MANDELLA · draw 9 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7FINIBALL (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · MIKE PUYPE · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8RULER OF LAW (USA)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · LUIS MENDEZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 6GO RALPH (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 6 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 8 · Santa Anita Park · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1PRINCE OF DEL MAR (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · ANDY MATHIS · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 6IT'S A FACTOR (USA)VICTOR ESPINOZA · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 8SUNK COST FALLACY (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · MIKE PUYPE · draw 8 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 9D DAY SKY (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · PETER EURTON · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 10MY MAN JOE ROLDAN (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · AGGIE ORDONEZ · draw 10 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 7PACER (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 7 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 4SKYQUIST (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · PATRICK GALLAGHER · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 5BATTLE SCHOOL (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 3BIG REFLECTIONS (USA)KYLE FREY · ISIDRO TAMAYO · draw 3 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 2AUDIBLE SILENCE (USA)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · VAL BRINKERHOFF · draw 2 · pool — · market #10—#10

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Keeneland (1.15 runs/horse) · Belmont Park (1.03 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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