Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolispool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 5SEIZE THE NIGHT (USA)+8.734% · 25%
  2. 2BOURBON SOCIETY (USA)+4.724% · 20%
  3. 1SUABLENANAV TH (URU)-0.321% · 22%
  4. 6GOLDWYN (USA)-4.310% · 14%
  5. 4SOLO VENTURI (USA)-4.27% · 11%
  6. 3FOUNTAIN LAKE (USA)-4.64% · 9%
SEIZE THE NIGHT (USA) is the pick: model 34% against a 25% pool share · verdict ↓

Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Philadelphia picks — Tue 13 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

25 races today · 18 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Tue 13 Oct 2026 · 3 tracks14 usable of 25 races · model overturns the favourite in 4Written Tue 13 Oct 2026, 03:09 ET · permalink

3 of 25 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Tue 13 Oct 2026

25 races across Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Philadelphia. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Finger Lakes · 6 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
2The pickMATURATION (USA)pool 34% · model 28.0% · STEVEN FRET
6Next bestBROWN DON'T STOP (USA)pool 21% · model 22.6% · JOEL CRUZ
4At a priceBIG RICH (USA)pool 18% · model 20.0% · EMANUEL DE DIEGO
Exacta box261Trifecta box2614Win2

MATURATION (USA) (2) is the pick: model 28% against a 34% pool share, 8 runs of US form on file, edge -6.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

BROWN DON'T STOP (USA) (6) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, BIG RICH (USA) (4) carries +2.0 points of edge from a 18% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2MATURATION (USA)STEVEN FRET · LUIS GUTIERREZ · draw 2 · pool 34% · market #1-6.0#1
  2. 6BROWN DON'T STOP (USA)JOEL CRUZ · MICHELLE TASSO · draw 6 · pool 21% · market #2+1.6#2
  3. 1RESILIENT HERO (USA)KEVIN NAVARRO · JOSE M. JIMENEZ · draw 1 · pool 19% · market #3+1.8#3
  4. 4BIG RICH (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · TIMOTHY P. MURPHY · draw 4 · pool 18% · market #4+2.0#4
  5. 5STOP THE SPREAD (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · RACHEL SELLS · draw 5 · pool 4% · market #5+1.1#5
  6. 3INTERSTATE (USA)JEREMIAS FLORES · ANGEL DIAZ-VALDEZ · draw 3 · pool 4% · market #6-0.4#6

Race 2 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
5The pickTEKILA (USA)pool 75% · model 50.5% · JOEL CRUZ
1Next bestEVENING EDGE (USA)pool 10% · model 12.2% · OSCAR GOMEZ
7At a priceDIVA BANKER (USA)pool 0% · model 9.1% · MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR.
Exacta box516Trifecta box5167Win5

TEKILA (USA) (5) is the pick: model 50% against a 75% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge -24.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

EVENING EDGE (USA) (1) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, DIVA BANKER (USA) (7) carries +9.1 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5TEKILA (USA)JOEL CRUZ · JONATHAN B. BUCKLEY · draw 5 · pool 75% · market #1-24.5#1
  2. 1EVENING EDGE (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · RACHEL SELLS · draw 1 · pool 10% · market #3+2.2#2
  3. 6BLUE EYED SCOUT (USA)STEVEN FRET · JULIE PIERSON · draw 6 · pool 12% · market #2-1.3#3
  4. 7DIVA BANKER (USA)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · DAVID OYOLA · draw 7 · pool — · market #6+9.1#4
  5. 2TUMBLES (USA)BEN S. JOSEPH · JULIUS ASHLEY · draw 2 · pool — · market #7+8.9#5
  6. 3GRAND LADY INDY (USA)KEIBER J. COA · MICHAEL S. FERRARO · draw 3 · pool 2% · market #4+4.4#6
  7. 4NUMERIC (USA)JOHN C. BERRIOS · JOSE MERCED · draw 4 · pool 1% · market #5+1.3#7

Race 3 · Finger Lakes · 8 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
2The pickSPETTRO (USA)pool 29% · model 25.6% · ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE
5Next bestCOACH BAHE (USA)pool 27% · model 25.1% · KEVIN NAVARRO
4At a priceO P FIRECRACKER (USA)pool 0% · model 8.8% · MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR.
Exacta box256Trifecta box2564Win2

SPETTRO (USA) (2) is the pick: model 26% against a 29% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge -3.2 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

COACH BAHE (USA) (5) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, O P FIRECRACKER (USA) (4) carries +8.8 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2SPETTRO (USA)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · CHARLTON BAKER · draw 2 · pool 29% · market #1-3.2#1
  2. 5COACH BAHE (USA)KEVIN NAVARRO · JONATHAN B. BUCKLEY · draw 5 · pool 27% · market #2-1.7#2
  3. 6FINALIST (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · NIRKA HUERTAS · draw 6 · pool 19% · market #4-4.0#3
  4. 1RETAIL MAN (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · MATTHEW CLARKE · draw 1 · pool 21% · market #3-9.1#4
  5. 4O P FIRECRACKER (USA)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · JAMES S. ACQUILANO · draw 4 · pool — · market #7+8.8#5
  6. 3MILAGROSO (USA)OLAF HERNANDEZ · JULIUS ASHLEY · draw 3 · pool — · market #8+7.7#6
  7. 7MAKAR (USA)WLADIMIR RENGIFO · ILMAR LOAIZA · draw 7 · pool 4% · market #5+0.5#7
  8. 8OCTOBER BLISS (USA)LUIS E. PEREZ · NIRKA HUERTAS · draw 8 · pool 1% · market #6+0.8#8

Race 4 · Finger Lakes · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3SOLO STREET (USA)KEVIN NAVARRO · JONATHAN B. BUCKLEY · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4KEEP 'EM HONEST (USA)KEIBER J. COA · TAMARA HOUSEL · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 9SUNFLOWER ALLEY (USA)JOSE BAEZ · GERALD B. STRICKLAND · draw 9 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5LEPER KING (USA)LUIS E. PEREZ · RACHEL SELLS · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 1MAXIMUM WARRIOR (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · JAMES S. ACQUILANO · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2TEN RUN RULE (USA)JOSE VENTURA · GLENROY BROWN · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 6YAHEARMENOW (USA)OLAF HERNANDEZ · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8JAMAICA REDD (USA)STEVEN FRET · KATLYNN GUTTERSON · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 7SHEA D VOTING (USA)JACQUELINE A. DAVIS · LINDA K. DIXON · draw 7 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 5 · Finger Lakes · 9 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
6The pickRAISULI (USA)pool 13% · model 34.3% · CHRIS RUSSELL
1Next bestSHELLAC (USA)pool 0% · model 11.4% · JOSE BAEZ
8At a priceKING PHOENIX (USA)pool 0% · model 10.2% · ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE
Exacta box613Trifecta box6138Win6

RAISULI (USA) (6) is the pick: model 34% against a 13% pool share, 10 runs of US form on file, edge -58.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SHELLAC (USA) (1) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, KING PHOENIX (USA) (8) carries +10.2 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6RAISULI (USA)CHRIS RUSSELL · JAMES S. ACQUILANO · draw 6 · pool 13% · market #1-58.6#1
  2. 1SHELLAC (USA)JOSE BAEZ · DANA SAUL · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+11.4#2
  3. 3THREE LITTLE BIRDS (USA)OLAF HERNANDEZ · CHARLTON BAKER · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+10.9#3
  4. 8KING PHOENIX (USA)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · CHRIS J. ENGLEHART · draw 8 · pool — · market #5+10.2#4
  5. 9BAD JOKE (USA)KEIBER J. COA · JON G. ARNETT · draw 9 · pool — · market #6+8.9#5
  6. 5BURNING MUNNY (USA)NAZARIO ALVARADO · THALIA ARECHE · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+8.4#6
  7. 7REAL ELEVE (USA)JOEL CRUZ · KATLYNN GUTTERSON · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+8.2#7
  8. 2NOT MY TYPE (USA)WLADIMIR RENGIFO · MICHAEL T. SABINE · draw 2 · pool — · market #9+6.3#8
  9. 4LILY'S ARMY (USA)STEVEN FRET · KATLYNN GUTTERSON · draw 4 · pool 1% · market #2-5.8#9

Race 6 · Finger Lakes · 9 runners

Usable
8¼f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
7The pickNOGUCHI (USA)pool 15% · model 36.9% · CHRIS RUSSELL
9Next bestONE MOREREP (USA)pool 0% · model 10.8% · JOEL CRUZ
4At a priceRESIDE (USA)pool 0% · model 9.2% · MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR.
Exacta box791Trifecta box7914Win7

NOGUCHI (USA) (7) is the pick: model 37% against a 15% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge -46.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

ONE MOREREP (USA) (9) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, RESIDE (USA) (4) carries +9.2 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7NOGUCHI (USA)CHRIS RUSSELL · WILLIAM H. BARTLETT · draw 7 · pool 15% · market #1-46.4#1
  2. 9ONE MOREREP (USA)JOEL CRUZ · RAFAEL JOSE ROHENA · draw 9 · pool — · market #3+10.8#2
  3. 1DUCKY MEDWICK (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · LINDA RICE · draw 1 · pool — · market #4+10.6#3
  4. 4RESIDE (USA)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · TIMOTHY P. MURPHY · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+9.2#4
  5. 2SAVVYLICIOUS (USA)OLAF HERNANDEZ · MICHELLE TASSO · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+8.5#5
  6. 5BECK'S DREAMER (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · JAMES S. ACQUILANO · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+7.8#6
  7. 8LUCEO NON URO (USA)WLADIMIR RENGIFO · KATLYNN GUTTERSON · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+7.8#7
  8. 3DOHA DESERT (USA)JOHN C. BERRIOS · JOSE MERCED · draw 3 · pool — · market #9+6.5#8
  9. 6FLAT CAP (USA)LUIS E. PEREZ · JOSE MERCED · draw 6 · pool 3% · market #2-14.8#9

Race 7 · Finger Lakes · 8 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
3The pickHENRY'S HOPE (USA)pool 35% · model 33.0% · REYLU GUTIERREZ
4Next bestTHE INSTITUTE (USA)pool 20% · model 23.6% · LUIS E. PEREZ
2At a priceC R INSTA GATOR (USA)pool 0% · model 8.7% · ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE
Exacta box347Trifecta box3472Win3

HENRY'S HOPE (USA) (3) is the pick: model 33% against a 35% pool share, 12 runs of US form on file, edge -1.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

THE INSTITUTE (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, C R INSTA GATOR (USA) (2) carries +8.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3HENRY'S HOPE (USA)REYLU GUTIERREZ · LUIS GUTIERREZ · draw 3 · pool 35% · market #1-1.7#1
  2. 4THE INSTITUTE (USA)LUIS E. PEREZ · MICHAEL S. FERRARO · draw 4 · pool 20% · market #2+3.8#2
  3. 7SHORTSINTHEWINTER (USA)STEVEN FRET · STACY TORELLI · draw 7 · pool 20% · market #3-4.5#3
  4. 2C R INSTA GATOR (USA)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · JON G. ARNETT · draw 2 · pool — · market #8+8.7#4
  5. 1DOC ADVANTAGE (USA)JEREMIAS FLORES · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 1 · pool 8% · market #4-1.6#5
  6. 5COIN JAR (USA)JOSE BAEZ · DANA SAUL · draw 5 · pool 6% · market #5-0.4#6
  7. 8SOLO'S FURY (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · KATLYNN GUTTERSON · draw 8 · pool 6% · market #6-2.1#7
  8. 6LADY'S GOLDEN GUY (USA)BEN S. JOSEPH · DEBRA A. BREED · draw 6 · pool 6% · market #7-2.2#8

Race 8 · Finger Lakes · 8 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
1The pickSCOOT DADDY (USA)pool 22% · model 23.1% · KEVIN NAVARRO
7Next bestSQUIRE CREEK (USA)pool 17% · model 17.9% · LUIS E. PEREZ
Exacta box178Trifecta box178Win1

SCOOT DADDY (USA) (1) is the pick: model 23% against a 22% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +1.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SQUIRE CREEK (USA) (7) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1SCOOT DADDY (USA)KEVIN NAVARRO · DANA SAUL · draw 1 · pool 22% · market #1+1.3#1
  2. 7SQUIRE CREEK (USA)LUIS E. PEREZ · AMY ALBRIGHT · draw 7 · pool 17% · market #4+1.0#2
  3. 8HAY HAY HARRY (USA)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · TIMOTHY P. MURPHY · draw 8 · pool 18% · market #3-1.0#3
  4. 5FARM TEAM (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · RUDY R. RODRIGUEZ · draw 5 · pool 19% · market #2-2.6#4
  5. 4MOMENTUM FILES (USA)REYLU GUTIERREZ · RUDY R. RODRIGUEZ · draw 4 · pool 12% · market #5+0.5#5
  6. 2CAPT JAX PARROW (USA)NAZARIO ALVARADO · LUIS GUTIERREZ · draw 2 · pool 7% · market #6+0.1#6
  7. 3BLACK POWDER (USA)JOSE BAEZ · DANA SAUL · draw 3 · pool 3% · market #7+0.9#7
  8. 6ELYSIAN MEADOWS (USA)HEMAN K. HARKIE · ILKAY KANTARMACI · draw 6 · pool 3% · market #8-0.2#8

Race 9 · Finger Lakes · 9 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
6The pickCABERNET (USA)pool 42% · model 34.2% · JOEL CRUZ
7Next bestPEGGY RULES (USA)pool 15% · model 17.2% · KEIBER J. COA
9At a priceMIND OF GOLD (USA)pool 3% · model 5.5% · MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR.
Exacta box672Trifecta box6729Win6

CABERNET (USA) (6) is the pick: model 34% against a 42% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge -8.2 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

PEGGY RULES (USA) (7) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, MIND OF GOLD (USA) (9) carries +2.5 points of edge from a 3% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6CABERNET (USA)JOEL CRUZ · ILMAR LOAIZA · draw 6 · pool 42% · market #1-8.2#1
  2. 7PEGGY RULES (USA)KEIBER J. COA · JON G. ARNETT · draw 7 · pool 15% · market #2+2.1#2
  3. 2MY ROYAL VOW (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 2 · pool 11% · market #4+2.6#3
  4. 8PURE ELEGANCE (USA)WLADIMIR RENGIFO · ILMAR LOAIZA · draw 8 · pool 13% · market #3-2.7#4
  5. 3HYPNOCURRENCY (USA)STEVEN FRET · JAMES MILLER PETTINE · draw 3 · pool 7% · market #5+1.2#5
  6. 1HAZARD PAY (USA)JOHN C. BERRIOS · GLENROY BROWN · draw 1 · pool 6% · market #6+0.5#6
  7. 9MIND OF GOLD (USA)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · DAVID OYOLA · draw 9 · pool 3% · market #7+2.5#7
  8. 4SWEET TOOTH SUE (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · JOSEPH E. MARINO · draw 4 · pool 1% · market #8+1.1#8
  9. 5TOMAKI (USA)JUAN J. DIAZ · THALIA ARECHE · draw 5 · pool 1% · market #9+0.9#9

Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

Thin form
8f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 5 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
5The pickSTRAWBERRY KISSES (USA)pool 39% · model 30.6% · ALEXANDER CRISPIN
2Next bestJIDDY JUSTICE (USA)pool 27% · model 25.4% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
8At a priceEXQUISITE JUSTICE (USA)pool 0% · model 8.5% · HANNAH LEAHEY
Exacta box524Trifecta box5248Win5

STRAWBERRY KISSES (USA) (5) is the pick: model 31% against a 39% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -8.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

JIDDY JUSTICE (USA) (2) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, EXQUISITE JUSTICE (USA) (8) carries +8.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5STRAWBERRY KISSES (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · AMARA KRANZ · draw 5 · pool 39% · market #1-8.4#1
  2. 2JIDDY JUSTICE (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 2 · pool 27% · market #2-1.6#2
  3. 4ANNA B EXPRESS (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · AARON M. WEST · draw 4 · pool — · market #7+10.5#3
  4. 1SOXIT TOEM (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 1 · pool 13% · market #3-2.8#4
  5. 8EXQUISITE JUSTICE (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+8.5#5
  6. 6J'S ALLEY CAT (USA)IRVING MONCADA · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 6 · pool 9% · market #4-2.1#6
  7. 7EVENING CHARM (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · AMARA KRANZ · draw 7 · pool 8% · market #5-2.8#7
  8. 3BRICKHOUSEJUSTICE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 3 · pool 4% · market #6-1.3#8

Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 6 runners

Usable
8¼f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
5The pickSEIZE THE NIGHT (USA)pool 25% · model 33.5% · EVIN A. ROMAN
2Next bestBOURBON SOCIETY (USA)pool 20% · model 24.5% · EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL
Exacta box521Trifecta box521Win5

SEIZE THE NIGHT (USA) (5) is the pick: model 34% against a 25% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +8.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

BOURBON SOCIETY (USA) (2) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5SEIZE THE NIGHT (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 5 · pool 25% · market #1+8.7#1
  2. 2BOURBON SOCIETY (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 2 · pool 20% · market #3+4.7#2
  3. 1SUABLENANAV TH (URU)JAMES GRAHAM · JOSE LUIZ ARANHA · draw 1 · pool 22% · market #2-0.3#3
  4. 6GOLDWYN (USA)IRVING MONCADA · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 6 · pool 14% · market #4-4.3#4
  5. 4SOLO VENTURI (USA)AXEL CONCEPCION · WILLIAM WALDEN · draw 4 · pool 11% · market #5-4.2#5
  6. 3FOUNTAIN LAKE (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · CHRISTOPHER DAVIS · draw 3 · pool 9% · market #6-4.6#6

Race 3 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 7 runners

Usable
8¼f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
3The pickSTANDARD EDITION (USA)pool 0% · model 15.2% · HANNAH LEAHEY
6Next bestSTARSPANGLEDIMAGE (USA)pool 5% · model 14.9% · ALEXANDER CRISPIN
2At a priceBOX (USA)pool 0% · model 14.7% · JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ
Exacta box364Trifecta box3642Win3

STANDARD EDITION (USA) (3) is the pick: model 15% against a 0% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge +15.2 points.

The pool makes STARSPANGLEDIMAGE (USA) (6) favourite at 5%; the model rates it 15%, so we overturn the favourite.

STARSPANGLEDIMAGE (USA) (6) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, BOX (USA) (2) carries +14.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3STANDARD EDITION (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · MIGUEL ANGEL SILVA · draw 3 · pool — · market #2+15.2#1
  2. 6STARSPANGLEDIMAGE (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · ANDREW C. BROWN · draw 6 · pool 5% · market #1-85.1#2
  3. 4CHABELO (USA)MICAH MEEKS · MIGUEL ANGEL SILVA · draw 4 · pool — · market #3+14.9#3
  4. 2BOX (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · SCOTT D. MULLINS · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+14.7#4
  5. 7LOVE POTION (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · EDWARD K. ROGGENKAMP III · draw 7 · pool — · market #5+14.6#5
  6. 5MOVIN OUT (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+14.3#6
  7. 1GRAY MIKE (USA)JOSHUA MORALES · CARLOS RAMIREZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #7+11.4#7

Race 4 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
3The pickTEMPLE PAYNTER (USA)pool 16% · model 45.6% · JOSEPH D. RAMOS
2Next bestNIGHT KISS (USA)pool 0% · model 10.6% · ALBERTO BURGOS
1At a priceCLOEY ATTACK (USA)pool 0% · model 8.2% · RODNEY A. PRESCOTT
Exacta box328Trifecta box3281Win3

TEMPLE PAYNTER (USA) (3) is the pick: model 46% against a 16% pool share, 9 runs of US form on file, edge -23.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

NIGHT KISS (USA) (2) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, CLOEY ATTACK (USA) (1) carries +8.2 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3TEMPLE PAYNTER (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 3 · pool 16% · market #1-23.9#1
  2. 2NIGHT KISS (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+10.6#2
  3. 8ASTERNIA (USA)DANNY SHEEHY · RANDY L. MORSE · draw 8 · pool — · market #5+9.5#3
  4. 1CLOEY ATTACK (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · SHANE CHILDERS · draw 1 · pool — · market #6+8.2#4
  5. 4SPECIAL SAUCE (USA)EDGAR MORALES · GENARO GARCIA · draw 4 · pool — · market #7+8.0#5
  6. 7VIRAL PLANE LADY (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · ROGELIO LABRA · draw 7 · pool 5% · market #2-13.9#6
  7. 5SISTERS IN TOWN (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · S. JADE CUNNINGHAM · draw 5 · pool — · market #8+7.8#7
  8. 6CITY PRAYERS (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · JOHN HARAN · draw 6 · pool 2% · market #3-6.2#8

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 15 runners

Thin form
8f Turf · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 8 of 15 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
5The pickFIELDS OF GREY (USA)pool 31% · model 30.7% · ALEX ACHARD
8Next bestMO QUE (USA)pool 13% · model 11.3% · ADAM BESCHIZZA
7At a priceVERY ROYAL (USA)pool 0% · model 5.2% · JAMES GRAHAM
Exacta box582Trifecta box5827Win5

FIELDS OF GREY (USA) (5) is the pick: model 31% against a 31% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge -27.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MO QUE (USA) (8) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, VERY ROYAL (USA) (7) carries +5.2 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5FIELDS OF GREY (USA)ALEX ACHARD · BRENDAN P. WALSH · draw 5 · pool 31% · market #1-27.8#1
  2. 8MO QUE (USA)ADAM BESCHIZZA · JOE SHARP · draw 8 · pool 13% · market #2-13.3#2
  3. 2JUST NOVA (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · BRAD H. COX · draw 2 · pool — · market #5+6.5#3
  4. 7VERY ROYAL (USA)JAMES GRAHAM · JOSE LUIZ ARANHA · draw 7 · pool — · market #6+5.2#4
  5. 13C R SULTAN (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · LILIA GONZALEZ · draw 13 · pool — · market #7+5.2#5
  6. 12GOOMBAY SMASH (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · VICTORIA H. OLIVER · draw 12 · pool — · market #8+5.1#6
  7. 3TIZNOT (USA)ANGEL SERPA · ISRAEL ACEVEDO · draw 3 · pool — · market #9+4.9#7
  8. 15TAWALLA (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ROBERT MEDINA · draw 15 · pool — · market #10+4.9#8
  9. 6CENTER FIELDER (USA)MICAH MEEKS · DEIVYS SALVADOR · draw 6 · pool — · market #11+4.8#9
  10. 14GOLD ON BLACK (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · RILEY MOTT · draw 14 · pool — · market #12+4.8#10
  11. 10BLACKMORE (USA)MIA NICHOLLS · CONOR MURPHY · draw 10 · pool — · market #13+4.5#11
  12. 11MODERN LEGACY (USA)JANE ELLIOTT · EOIN G. HARTY · draw 11 · pool — · market #14+4.0#12
  13. 9THOUSAND BYUS (USA)IRVING MONCADA · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 9 · pool 7% · market #3-9.2#13
  14. 1INTHEBUDGET (USA)DANNY SHEEHY · JIMMY CORRIGAN · draw 1 · pool — · market #15+3.5#14
  15. 4SEA OATS (USA)DECLAN CANNON · JIMMY CORRIGAN · draw 4 · pool 2% · market #4-3.3#15

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
7The pickPOWERFUL JUSTICE (USA)pool 0% · model 11.3% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
8Next bestROCK CITY KID (USA)pool 0% · model 11.3% · RODNEY A. PRESCOTT
9At a priceSHAGGYINTHECITY (USA)pool 0% · model 10.5% · JOSEPH D. RAMOS
Exacta box782Trifecta box7829Win7

POWERFUL JUSTICE (USA) (7) is the pick: model 11% against a 0% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge +11.3 points.

The pool makes GRAY V. (USA) (5) favourite at 12%; the model rates it 11%, so we overturn the favourite.

ROCK CITY KID (USA) (8) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, SHAGGYINTHECITY (USA) (9) carries +10.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7POWERFUL JUSTICE (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 7 · pool — · market #2+11.3#1
  2. 8ROCK CITY KID (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · SHANNON MCGOVERN · draw 8 · pool — · market #3+11.3#2
  3. 2SOMBEYAY KING (USA)VICTOR LARA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+10.6#3
  4. 5GRAY V. (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · TRACEY J. WISNER · draw 5 · pool 12% · market #1-89.5#4
  5. 9SHAGGYINTHECITY (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · ROBERT C. CLINE · draw 9 · pool — · market #5+10.5#5
  6. 4UNBRIDLED VALOR (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · ISRAEL J. GARCIA · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+10.4#6
  7. 1REITERATION (USA)MICAH MEEKS · TERRY PHILLIPS · draw 1 · pool — · market #7+10.2#7
  8. 6TANK WALK (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 6 · pool — · market #8+9.4#8
  9. 3IT'S MY SONG (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 3 · pool — · market #9+9.2#9
  10. 10BULLDOG MIKE (USA)IRVING MONCADA · CARLOS RAMIREZ · draw 10 · pool — · market #10+6.6#10

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 12 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 12 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
9The pickJACK'S SUMMER (USA)pool 39% · model 21.9% · JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR
10Next bestDIVVY (USA)pool 36% · model 18.3% · AGUSTIN GOMEZ
2At a priceBELLE CHERIE (USA)pool 0% · model 8.1% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
Exacta box9108Trifecta box91082Win9

JACK'S SUMMER (USA) (9) is the pick: model 22% against a 39% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -17.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

DIVVY (USA) (10) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, BELLE CHERIE (USA) (2) carries +8.1 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 9JACK'S SUMMER (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · ROBERT C. STURGEON · draw 9 · pool 39% · market #1-17.1#1
  2. 10DIVVY (USA)AGUSTIN GOMEZ · LUIS A. JURADO · draw 10 · pool 36% · market #2-17.7#2
  3. 8TIZ BAYOU (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 8 · pool — · market #6+8.8#3
  4. 2BELLE CHERIE (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · MICHAEL J. MAKER · draw 2 · pool — · market #7+8.1#4
  5. 12REIMAGINE (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · DANIEL SIMPSON · draw 12 · pool — · market #8+7.1#5
  6. 11TARRAGON (USA)CARLOS ERIELTUN FRANCA · LUIS A. JURADO · draw 11 · pool — · market #9+6.9#6
  7. 7CHOATE (USA)IRVING MONCADA · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 7 · pool — · market #10+6.9#7
  8. 6CHANNAH DEL MAR (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · RAYMOND J. PAQUETTE III · draw 6 · pool 15% · market #3-8.3#8
  9. 5DREAMING COLLECT (USA)MICAH MEEKS · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 5 · pool — · market #11+6.6#9
  10. 4RAFAELLA (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 4 · pool — · market #12+5.1#10
  11. 1MISHKA (USA)CAITLYN STODDARD · DAISY K. OLIVO · draw 1 · pool 5% · market #4-3.0#11
  12. 3LUCKY SHORE (USA)JANE ELLIOTT · ROBERT C. STURGEON · draw 3 · pool 5% · market #5-3.4#12

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 16 runners

Usable
5f Turf · Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 12 of 16 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
6The pickVERACIOUS (USA)pool 49% · model 42.6% · MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR.
8Next bestHEITZGIRL (USA)pool 14% · model 11.4% · MITCHELL MURRILL
Exacta box689Trifecta box689Win6

VERACIOUS (USA) (6) is the pick: model 43% against a 49% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge -5.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

HEITZGIRL (USA) (8) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6VERACIOUS (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · CHERIE DEVAUX · draw 6 · pool 49% · market #1-5.4#1
  2. 8HEITZGIRL (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · GREGORY D. FOLEY · draw 8 · pool 14% · market #2-2.4#2
  3. 9POVERTY WITH AVIEW (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOE LEJZEROWICZ · draw 9 · pool — · market #11+4.8#3
  4. 13HEAVEN'S HOPE (USA)ALBIN JIMENEZ · JEFFREY L. GREENHILL · draw 13 · pool — · market #12+4.7#4
  5. 14RETROSPECTIVE (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · GREGORY D. FOLEY · draw 14 · pool — · market #13+4.4#5
  6. 10GOOD CONDUCT (USA)AXEL CONCEPCION · CHERIE DEVAUX · draw 10 · pool — · market #14+4.4#6
  7. 7MISSYS MAYBABY (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · CARLOS SANTAMARIA · draw 7 · pool 6% · market #3-2.1#7
  8. 2EMPRESS SISI (USA)DECLAN CANNON · IAN R. WILKES · draw 2 · pool — · market #15+3.6#8
  9. 4NO SELF CONTROL (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · MIGUEL ANGEL SILVA · draw 4 · pool 6% · market #4-2.3#9
  10. 12SHEER JAZZ (USA)RAFAEL MOJICA, JR. · REBECCA JOHNSTON · draw 12 · pool — · market #16+3.3#10
  11. 5SOMNAMBULIST (USA)ADAM BESCHIZZA · KELSEY DANNER · draw 5 · pool 6% · market #5-3.0#11
  12. 15C V HOLLY (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · AGUSTIN GONZALEZ, JR. · draw 15 · pool 6% · market #6-3.3#12
  13. 1MUSICAL MARY (USA)ALEX ACHARD · JUSTIN WOJCZYNSKI · draw 1 · pool 5% · market #7-2.4#13
  14. 3FREGATA (USA)SANTO SANJUR · WAYNE M. CATALANO · draw 3 · pool 4% · market #8-1.6#14
  15. 11ZERO ABSOLUTE (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · PHILIP A. BAUER · draw 11 · pool 3% · market #9-0.8#15
  16. 16LUNAR SKY (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · DARLENE GREEN · draw 16 · pool 3% · market #10-1.8#16

Race 1 · Philadelphia · 7 runners

Thin form
6½f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
5The pickRELEVATE (KY)pool 63% · model 49.4% · MYCHEL J SANCHEZ
1Next bestABOLTOFSECONDWIND (KY)pool 13% · model 13.1% · SILVESTRE GONZALEZ
7At a priceMACLEAN'S LULLABY (KY)pool 7% · model 11.1% · FRANCISCO MARTINEZ
Exacta box516Trifecta box5167Win5

RELEVATE (KY) (5) is the pick: model 49% against a 63% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -14.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

ABOLTOFSECONDWIND (KY) (1) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, MACLEAN'S LULLABY (KY) (7) carries +4.1 points of edge from a 7% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5RELEVATE (KY)MYCHEL J SANCHEZ · ROBERT MOSCO · draw 5 · pool 63% · market #1-14.3#1
  2. 1ABOLTOFSECONDWIND (KY)SILVESTRE GONZALEZ · KATHLEEN A DEMASI · draw 1 · pool 13% · market #2-0.0#2
  3. 6CROWN ROYAL BABE (PA)MARTIN CHUAN · JOHN T KIRBY · draw 6 · pool 9% · market #3+2.7#3
  4. 7MACLEAN'S LULLABY (KY)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · SCOTT A LAKE · draw 7 · pool 7% · market #4+4.1#4
  5. 3CRITICAL MAGIC (FL)SEBASTIAN ORELLANA · JUAN A POLANCO · draw 3 · pool 3% · market #5+2.9#5
  6. 2SMOKIN HOT WIFE (KY)JOEZER RANGEL · JACINTO SOLIS · draw 2 · pool 3% · market #6+2.8#6
  7. 4CITY BROAD (PA)LUIS M OCASIO · CESAREO MARQUEZ · draw 4 · pool 1% · market #7+1.9#7

Race 2 · Philadelphia · 7 runners

Thin form
8f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
4The pickBRISCOE COUNTY (KY)pool 58% · model 42.9% · ANDY HERNANDEZ
5Next bestASTRID (KY)pool 18% · model 14.3% · NOEL HERMAN
6At a priceDADOO (PA)pool 9% · model 11.5% · ABNER ADORNO
Exacta box453Trifecta box4536Win4

BRISCOE COUNTY (KY) (4) is the pick: model 43% against a 58% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -15.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

ASTRID (KY) (5) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, DADOO (PA) (6) carries +2.5 points of edge from a 9% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4BRISCOE COUNTY (KY)ANDY HERNANDEZ · JACINTO SOLIS · draw 4 · pool 58% · market #1-15.1#1
  2. 5ASTRID (KY)NOEL HERMAN · JACINTO SOLIS · draw 5 · pool 18% · market #2-3.7#2
  3. 3JOYFUL JOYCE (PA)MYCHEL J SANCHEZ · JAMES F NOBLE · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+12.5#3
  4. 6DADOO (PA)ABNER ADORNO · ROBERT E REID, JR · draw 6 · pool 9% · market #3+2.5#4
  5. 1NOHAI (PA)LUIS M OCASIO · CARLOS E CABAN · draw 1 · pool 8% · market #4+1.4#5
  6. 2EXTRASEXYZQTEEPEYE (PA)KLEINER A MEJIAS · RUPERTO A PEREZ · draw 2 · pool 4% · market #5+1.7#6
  7. 7LADY SRIRACHA (MD)ELISEO RUIZ · MICHAEL M MOORE · draw 7 · pool 3% · market #6+0.7#7

Race 3 · Philadelphia · 7 runners

Thin form
7f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
1The pickACTION HERO (KY)pool 0% · model 16.9% · PACO LOPEZ
7Next bestMAJESTIC LION (PA)pool 0% · model 16.2% · LUIS AVILA
2At a priceMODICA (KY)pool 0% · model 14.4% · DEXTER HADDOCK
Exacta box175Trifecta box1752Win1

ACTION HERO (KY) (1) is the pick: model 17% against a 0% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +16.9 points.

The pool makes LUNAR ROCKET (KY) (4) favourite at 2%; the model rates it 12%, so we overturn the favourite.

MAJESTIC LION (PA) (7) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, MODICA (KY) (2) carries +14.4 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1ACTION HERO (KY)PACO LOPEZ · SCOTT A LAKE · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+16.9#1
  2. 7MAJESTIC LION (PA)LUIS AVILA · CARLOS E CABAN · draw 7 · pool — · market #3+16.2#2
  3. 5KEEPING IT COUNTRY (PA)JEAN AGUILAR · MIGUEL PENALOZA · draw 5 · pool — · market #4+15.6#3
  4. 2MODICA (KY)DEXTER HADDOCK · MIGUEL PENALOZA · draw 2 · pool — · market #5+14.4#4
  5. 3FIRST MONEY (KY)NOEL HERMAN · JAIME BRAVO-ESTRADA · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+14.1#5
  6. 4LUNAR ROCKET (KY)ADAM BOWMAN · STEPHEN HAMILTON · draw 4 · pool 2% · market #1-88.2#6
  7. 6IMMENSE FAITH (KY)MELVIS GONZALEZ · ILIAS TAPSAS · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+11.0#7

Race 4 · Philadelphia · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5AMUSING MISCHIEF (PA)MYCHEL J SANCHEZ · RICHARD VEGA · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 9FROST MOUNTAIN (KY)RUBEN SILVERA · ERNESTO PADILLA-PRECIADO · draw 9 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 7LIBERTE DE BAYEUX (KY)KENDRY RIVERA · CARLOS E CABAN · draw 7 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 3STRAWBERRY TREAT (PA)INOEL BEATO · MICHAEL ZALALAS · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 10FLOAT ON (CA)PACO LOPEZ · JOSUE ARCE · draw 10 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 6COJELO PA TI (FL)JEAN AGUILAR · MIGUEL PENALOZA · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 8BORRACHO (KY)KLEINER A MEJIAS · RONALD P CLATTERBUCK · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 4NANCY MADE MY DAY (VA)DEXTER HADDOCK · RICHARD VEGA · draw 4 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 2MAGICNTHEMOONLIGHT (PA)MELVIS GONZALEZ · RUPERTO A PEREZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 1AU SOME WARRIOR (PA)NOEL HERMAN · ALEXANDER MARTINEZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 5 · Philadelphia · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 0 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3FLYING FREE (PA)MYCHEL J SANCHEZ · MARYA K MONTOYA · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 8SIX OF SPADES (PA)JEAN AGUILAR · HUGO O PADILLA · draw 8 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4VANDALISM (PA)ANGEL R RODRIGUEZ · BRANDON L KULP · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 9SKINNY CAPTAIN (PA)ABNER ADORNO · ROBERT E REID, JR · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6MOMMY MAKEOVER (PA)FRANKIE PENNINGTON · JOHN C SERVIS · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2YOUROWNSPECIALWAY (PA)SILVESTRE GONZALEZ · KATHLEEN A DEMASI · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7TENGO ESPERANZA (PA)MARTIN CHUAN · GUADALUPE PRECIADO · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 1AWESOME CAUSE (PA)LUIS M OCASIO · JACINTO SOLIS · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 5PEACHES N DREAMS (PA)ELISEO RUIZ · BRANDON L KULP · draw 5 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 6 · Philadelphia · 7 runners

Thin form
8¼f Dirt · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
1The pickOUR NOTION (PA)pool 0% · model 21.5% · MYCHEL J SANCHEZ
6Next bestDONNELLY'S HOLLOW (PA)pool 0% · model 16.6% · PACO LOPEZ
7At a pricePARTY WITH SMARTY (PA)pool 0% · model 12.4% · ABNER ADORNO
Exacta box165Trifecta box1657Win1

OUR NOTION (PA) (1) is the pick: model 22% against a 0% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +21.5 points.

The pool makes ALCHEMISM (PA) (2) favourite at 1%; the model rates it 13%, so we overturn the favourite.

DONNELLY'S HOLLOW (PA) (6) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, PARTY WITH SMARTY (PA) (7) carries +12.4 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1OUR NOTION (PA)MYCHEL J SANCHEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+21.5#1
  2. 6DONNELLY'S HOLLOW (PA)PACO LOPEZ · RONALD B ABRAMS · draw 6 · pool — · market #3+16.6#2
  3. 5CODY PASS (PA)LUIS M OCASIO · MIGUEL PENALOZA · draw 5 · pool — · market #4+13.7#3
  4. 2ALCHEMISM (PA)JOEZER RANGEL · DAVID DOTOLO · draw 2 · pool 1% · market #1-87.4#4
  5. 7PARTY WITH SMARTY (PA)ABNER ADORNO · SUSAN L CROWELL · draw 7 · pool — · market #5+12.4#5
  6. 4DRUM ROLL PLEASE (PA)MELVIS GONZALEZ · JUAN CARLOS GUERRERO · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+12.3#6
  7. 3TIME TESTED (PA)ANDY HERNANDEZ · THOMAS IANNOTTI IV · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+10.8#7

Race 7 · Philadelphia · 8 runners

Thin form
7f Dirt · Stakes, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
3The pickLADY ANNABELLE (PA)pool 97% · model 45.7% · SILVESTRE GONZALEZ
7Next bestNATURE'S CANDY (PA)pool 0% · model 11.2% · ANDY HERNANDEZ
6At a pricePACHELBEL (PA)pool 0% · model 9.3% · PACO LOPEZ
Exacta box374Trifecta box3746Win3

LADY ANNABELLE (PA) (3) is the pick: model 46% against a 97% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge -51.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

NATURE'S CANDY (PA) (7) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, PACHELBEL (PA) (6) carries +9.3 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3LADY ANNABELLE (PA)SILVESTRE GONZALEZ · ERNESTO PADILLA-PRECIADO · draw 3 · pool 97% · market #1-51.3#1
  2. 7NATURE'S CANDY (PA)ANDY HERNANDEZ · HUGO O PADILLA · draw 7 · pool — · market #3+11.2#2
  3. 4BEAUTIFULCRAZYGIRL (PA)FRANKIE PENNINGTON · SCOTT A LAKE · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+9.4#3
  4. 6PACHELBEL (PA)PACO LOPEZ · MICHAEL M MOORE · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+9.3#4
  5. 5CAROUSEL QUEEN (PA)MYCHEL J SANCHEZ · SCOTT A LAKE · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+9.1#5
  6. 8THISGIRLSGOTCHILL (PA). · KATHLEEN A DEMASI · draw 8 · pool — · market #7+7.9#6
  7. 2CANDY KANE (PA)ADAM BOWMAN · HOWARD R BROWN, JR · draw 2 · pool — · market #8+5.6#7
  8. 1PRESENCEISAPRESENT (PA)JORGE A VARGAS, JR · JUAN CARLOS GUERRERO · draw 1 · pool 3% · market #2-1.2#8

Race 8 · Philadelphia · 10 runners

Blind
5½f Dirt · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 0 of 10 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 1PARFIVEINTWO (PA)MYCHEL J SANCHEZ · RUPERTO A PEREZ · draw 1 · pool 19% · market #3—#1
  2. 3CHEF SPARROW (PA)PACO LOPEZ · ROBERT E REID, JR · draw 3 · pool 18% · market #4—#2
  3. 4PENNILESS PAULY (PA)ELISEO RUIZ · EDWARD J COLETTI, JR · draw 4 · pool 21% · market #2—#3
  4. 2CANNONBURY (PA)ABNER ADORNO · KATHLEEN A DEMASI · draw 2 · pool 22% · market #1—#4
  5. 7SCHUBERT SONATA (PA)ANDY HERNANDEZ · HUGO O PADILLA · draw 7 · pool 16% · market #5—#5
  6. 6THIRD BITE (PA)FRANKIE PENNINGTON · ROBERT E REID, JR · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#6
  7. 8HOSTILITY (PA)LUIS M OCASIO · LOUIS C LINDER, JR · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#7
  8. 5PRAYED UP (PA)ANGEL R RODRIGUEZ · BRANDON L KULP · draw 5 · pool — · market #10—#8
  9. 10KPNUPWITHTHEJONES (PA)JOEZER RANGEL · DAVID DOTOLO · draw 10 · pool 3% · market #6—#9
  10. 9VALHALLA (PA)KENDRICK CARMOUCHE · TODD A PLETCHER · draw 9 · pool 1% · market #7—#10

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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