Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolispool vs model · Tue 13 Oct 2026
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 6VERACIOUS (USA)-15.422% · 37%
  2. 11ZERO ABSOLUTE (USA)+0.118% · 18%
  3. 3FREGATA (USA)-1.612% · 13%
  4. 8HEITZGIRL (USA)+0.611% · 10%
  5. 14RETROSPECTIVE (USA)+1.26% · 5%
  6. 10GOOD CONDUCT (USA) (Koşmaz)+1.54% · 3%
  7. 4NO SELF CONTROL (USA)+1.14% · 3%
Result pending · record

Horseshoe Indianapolis picks — Wed 14 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

8 races today · 19 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Wed 14 Oct 2026 · 1 track0 usable of 8 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Tue 13 Oct 2026, 15:29 ET · permalink

Pools not open yet

The Turkish tote opens its win pool on these 8 US races on the morning of the card (it stays thin until close to post time). This page was written from the race cards alone; verdicts and pool shares fill in about an hour before each track’s first race, once the pool has formed. Meanwhile: yesterday's results · the record.

Today · Wed 14 Oct 2026

8 races across Horseshoe Indianapolis. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 8TAP TAP TAP IT IN (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 8 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2FROSTED BULL (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · HELEN PITTS · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 7THE EXODUS TWIST (USA)SANTO SANJUR · EMMA JIMENEZ SANCHEZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5BEKHAMBOY (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · JACK L. HANCOCK · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3WHATNOWDADDY (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · JOHN HARAN · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 6SATHWIK (USA)VICTOR LARA · DEVARUS DOUGLASS · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 4LINEBACKER (USA)DECLAN CANNON · JORDAN BLAIR · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 1MORNING POWER (USA)JOSE RIQUELME · GENNADI DOROCHENKO · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#8

Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 3 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6BRICKHOUSEJUSTICE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 6 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2PRAYER FOR MUSIC (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · TERRY PHILLIPS · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4PRIZE EYES (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 7TIZ SAHARA (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3LIL GITANA (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 1LA PERUANA (USA)MICAH MEEKS · JOHN HARAN · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 5ALLOUTJUSTICE (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · RAYMOND J. PAQUETTE III · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 3 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1MISTY MOON SONG (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · BRIAN L. SCHLING · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 7TIVA (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · JONATHAN NANCE · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4LOURENDA (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · AARON M. WEST · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 6THIS LITTLE LIGHT (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3KATHI'S GIRL (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · MARCELINO SALAS · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 8DESTINY INA BOTTLE (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · TRACEY J. WISNER · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 5SO MUCH SUNSHINE (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · SCOTT D. MULLINS · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 2CHARMING JUSTICE (USA)MICAH MEEKS · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#8

Race 4 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 13 runners

NO POOL YET
8½f Turf · Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 11 of 13 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3HIGH STREET PIZZAZ (USA)ALEX ACHARD · JOE SHARP · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 13ABHA (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · BRAD H. COX · draw 13 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 10ELEONORA (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · EDDIE KENNEALLY · draw 10 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 11COPYCAT (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · BRENDAN P. WALSH · draw 11 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5FANCY LADY (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · D. WHITWORTH BECKMAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 12AUBREY MAE (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · MICHAEL J. MAKER · draw 12 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 6SERENA'S SURPRISE (USA)SANTO SANJUR · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 1SONO BELLA (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · BRENDAN P. WALSH · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 8TWINKLEE (USA)DANILO GRISALES RAVE · WAYNE M. CATALANO · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 2DUTCH GIRL (USA)DECLAN CANNON · BRIAN A. LYNCH · draw 2 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 4STRESS TEST (USA)ADAM BESCHIZZA · JOE SHARP · draw 4 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 7LAST CURTAIN CALL (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · VICTORIA H. OLIVER · draw 7 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 9PINPOINTED (USA)JANE ELLIOTT · EOIN G. HARTY · draw 9 · pool — · market #13—#13

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3START OUT (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 6CHONDRITE (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1STAR SAVER (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · AARON M. WEST · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 9PARGO (USA)DANILO GRISALES RAVE · WAYNE M. CATALANO · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 7MAN OF THE HOUR (USA)SANTO SANJUR · KEITH KINMON · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 5CAUSE IMA BOSS (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · GUBER GOROSTIETA · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 4PUT ME IN COACH (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · GUBER GOROSTIETA · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8ALTIMETER (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · RAYMOND J. PAQUETTE III · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 2RUN DAVID RUN (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 2 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 12 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7PEZZONOVANTE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 7 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 12MELODY MAN (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · J. KENT SWEEZEY · draw 12 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6FEDERAL AGENT (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · BOBBY C. BARNETT · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 9KNICKADOO (USA)ALEX ACHARD · ANNA M. MEAH · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 11DARK RYE (USA)JANE ELLIOTT · MICHELLE LOVELL · draw 11 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 4WEEKEND REVEILLE (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · WILLIAM E. GALLAGHER · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 2VOLATILE SPARK (USA)VICTOR LARA · WILLIAM E. GALLAGHER · draw 2 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8ADHEMAR (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · JOHN A. HANCOCK · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 1DYNO WAR (USA)JOSHUA MORALES · CARLOS RAMIREZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 10CREATING HAVOC (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · AGUSTIN GONZALEZ, JR. · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 5DOTTIES BLUE MONEY (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · DEVARUS DOUGLASS · draw 5 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 3GO CHICAGO (USA)SANTO SANJUR · JOEL CAMPBELL · draw 3 · pool — · market #12—#12

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 6 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2GRANDFATHER SIR (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 2 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3BLUES ROCKER (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · ROBERT E. DOBBS, JR. · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 10NORDIC PRINCE (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · JOHN HARAN · draw 10 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 8VICTORY ON ICE (USA)ALEX ACHARD · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5AZTECA ALEGRE (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 6UNCLE TUFF (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 1PLAY ACTION (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 7SUSPENDERS (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 9MY BUMBLE BEE (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · JAMES EGBERT · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 4C V HADES (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · KENIA HERNANDEZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 13 runners

NO POOL YET
8½f Turf · Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 13 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 13RISKY WAVE (USA)VICTOR R. CARRASCO · GEORGE R. ARNOLD II · draw 13 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 5DAD'S TWO SENSE (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · BRENDAN P. WALSH · draw 5 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1MOHAWK MOON (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · BRENDAN P. WALSH · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2GINGER ALE (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · WAYNE L. MACKEY · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6PRIME TIME LADY (USA)ADAM BESCHIZZA · BRIAN A. LYNCH · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 7SPEIGHTSY RIVAL (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · LACY PIERCE · draw 7 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 9SUPER DREAMY (IRE)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · D. WHITWORTH BECKMAN · draw 9 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 3GREAT KERRY LEE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · VICTORIA H. OLIVER · draw 3 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 11SNOWGLOBE (USA)WILLIAM ANTONGEORGI III · JESUS CRUZ · draw 11 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 10MISO SPEEDY (USA)ALEX ACHARD · RILEY MOTT · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 4CATNIP HILL (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · FRANK K. HORVATH · draw 4 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 12LUCKY TO DANCE (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · DARRIN MILLER · draw 12 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 8DON'S JOY (USA)DECLAN CANNON · JOE SHARP · draw 8 · pool — · market #13—#13

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Keeneland (1.16 runs/horse) · Belmont Park (1.05 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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