Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolispool vs model · Wed 14 Oct 2026
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 8TAP TAP TAP IT IN (USA)+0.532% · 31%
  2. 2FROSTED BULL (USA)+0.518% · 17%
  3. 7THE EXODUS TWIST (USA)-3.317% · 20%
  4. 5BEKHAMBOY (USA)-0.813% · 14%
  5. 1MORNING POWER (USA)-1.09% · 10%
  6. 4LINEBACKER (USA)+1.25% · 4%
  7. 3WHATNOWDADDY (USA)+1.74% · 2%
Result pending · record

Horseshoe Indianapolis picks — Thu 15 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

8 races today · 20 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 1 track0 usable of 8 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Wed 14 Oct 2026, 15:31 ET · permalink

Pools not open yet

The Turkish tote opens its win pool on these 8 US races on the morning of the card (it stays thin until close to post time). This page was written from the race cards alone; verdicts and pool shares fill in about an hour before each track’s first race, once the pool has formed. Meanwhile: yesterday's results · the record.

Today · Thu 15 Oct 2026

8 races across Horseshoe Indianapolis. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 6 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Allowance, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 6 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3ROCKIN ROCIO (USA)VICTOR LARA · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1STANKA (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6RED IOLLA (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · JONATHAN NANCE · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2MOLLY'S POTION (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · DAWN A. FONTENOT · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5SPIRITED ANNE (USA)WALTER A. RODRIGUEZ · LARRY RIVELLI · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 4LITTLERANSOMSFIRE (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · SCOTT D. MULLINS · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#6

Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 6 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 6 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6MANSFIELD TIGER (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 6 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2CONI'S COUP (USA)LUIS A. HERNANDEZ · CHRIS M. BLOCK · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5BOOMING (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1STAR REVIEW (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · SCOTT D. MULLINS · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 4DEVILS RED (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · DAVID R. REID · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 3NEW YEAR SURPRISE (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · AGUSTIN GONZALEZ, JR. · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#6

Race 3 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5TOY'STROUBLEDHERO (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3RAPID JUSTICE (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 7MYSTIK JUSTICE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 7 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1ROSSO FUOCO (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6POLAR DRIFT (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2STAR PROMISE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 4GIMMEL (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · SCOTT D. MULLINS · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 4 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
8½f Turf · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6WADSWORTH (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · BRAD H. COX · draw 6 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 9ZAMBEZI (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · BOBBY C. BARNETT · draw 9 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 3THEISMANN (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · MICHAEL J. MAKER · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 4V MAX (USA)DYLAN MACHADO · ETHAN W. WEST · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 1SEA SINGER (IRE)VICTOR R. CARRASCO · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 7OUT OF DEDUCTIONS (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · CHRIS M. BLOCK · draw 7 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 2BEEF WINSLOW (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · ROBERT B. HESS, JR. · draw 2 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 10FIRST BID (USA)ALEXANDER BENDEZU · PAT CLAY · draw 10 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 8SING SING (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · MATT KORDENBROCK · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 5EXOSOME (USA)ADAM BESCHIZZA · KELSEY DANNER · draw 5 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2SPINNING PRIDE (USA)JOSE RIQUELME · GENNADI DOROCHENKO · draw 2 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 7HUEVOS D'ORO (USA)VICTOR LARA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 3JUST LIKE MAX (USA)LUIS FUENMAYOR · CLIMACO GALINDO-TORRES · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 4REFLEX (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 8A LOTTA DOUGH (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · ED MOGER, JR. · draw 8 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 6DREAMING SMART (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 5MCILROY (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · BRITTANY A. VANDEN BERG · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 1PINK MOON (USA)SANTIAGO GONZALEZ · ANNA NAVARRETE · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#8

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 16 runners

NO POOL YET
8½f Turf · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 14 of 16 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7DEBT PAID (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · MICHELLE LOVELL · draw 7 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2JAZZOLE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 3OCEAN POINTE (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RICHARD ESTVANKO · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 14PURDY DARN GOOD (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 14 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 12MASTER MUNNINGS (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · JOE SHARP · draw 12 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 1ZACH (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · JOHN HARAN · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 13TAKEITANDRUN (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 13 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 4BOITANO (USA)ADAM BESCHIZZA · JOSE M. CAMEJO · draw 4 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 11PILKINGTON (USA)GUILLERMO RODRIGUEZ · SUSAN L. ANDERSON · draw 11 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 16NINE QUESTIONS (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 16 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 6LEAVE IT TO KITTEN (CAN)SANTIAGO GONZALEZ · KATHY JARVIS · draw 6 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 9MEMPHIS PHAROAH (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 9 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 15SPEED BIAS (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 15 · pool — · market #13—#13
  14. 8HE GOTS TO GO (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · MICHELLE DALTON · draw 8 · pool — · market #14—#14
  15. 5PERSONAL JET (USA)TRAVIS WALES · HEATHER IRION · draw 5 · pool — · market #15—#15
  16. 10WICKED SUPRISE (USA)VICTOR LARA · CHERYL WINEBAUGH · draw 10 · pool — · market #16—#16

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 7 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 9SIBILLA (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · PHILIP A. BAUER · draw 9 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2THREE POINT SEVEN (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1SOVEREIGN STRIDE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5AINT HAVING IT (USA)ANGEL ORTEGA STANLEY · PAT CLAY · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 8PRINCESS OMAHA (USA)VICTOR LARA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 8 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 6WAUTOMA WATERS (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7POLKA DOT JERSEY (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 4IMALLABOUTTHATBEAT (USA)DANILO GRISALES RAVE · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 4 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 3READ THE BOOK (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · SCOTT D. MULLINS · draw 3 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Allowance, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 12 of 12 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7GONNAGETCHAGETCHA (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 7 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 9GOODY TWO SOCKS (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 9 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5SPOOKY RIDGE (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · JOHN L. LANGEMEIER · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 3MIDNIGHT CAPER (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 1SWEET JANNAELISE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 10INCLUSIVE JUSTICE (USA)CARLOS MONTALVO · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 10 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 12GET EVEN KID (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · JOHN HARAN · draw 12 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 11SKIPPINJUSTICE (USA)VICTOR LARA · AGUSTIN GONZALEZ, JR. · draw 11 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 8SI O SI (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 6PRETTYONTHEPRARIE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 6 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 2TAMARAC SQUARE (USA)IRVING MONCADA · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 2 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 4FLOWERED (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 4 · pool — · market #12—#12

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Keeneland (1.16 runs/horse) · Belmont Park (1.05 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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