Race 7 · Santa Anita Parkpool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 1MIDNIGHT HORIZON (IRE)+0.638% · 38%
  2. 8DEA MATRONA (FR)-12.712% · 25%
  3. 7LANILLA (USA)-14.011% · 25%
  4. 3ROSELEE MAY (USA)+10.110% · 0%
  5. 6CAILIN DANA (USA)+9.39% · 0%
  6. 4WINK AND A GRIN (USA)+9.19% · 0%
  7. 5DARING PURSUIT (USA)+9.09% · 0%
MIDNIGHT HORIZON (IRE) is the pick: model 38% against a 38% pool share · verdict ↓

Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park picks — Fri 16 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →

16 races today · 21 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Fri 16 Oct 2026 · 2 tracks11 usable of 16 races · model overturns the favourite in 2Written Fri 16 Oct 2026, 03:07 ET · permalink

Today · Fri 16 Oct 2026

16 races across Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Thin form
5½f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
4The pickSENOR MONEY (USA)pool 29% · model 30.8% · SONNY LEON
3Next bestGENESIS OMEGA (USA)pool 18% · model 20.0% · J.G. TORREALBA
5At a priceRENT'S DUE (USA)pool 8% · model 10.5% · SAMY CAMACHO

SENOR MONEY (USA) (4) is the pick: model 31% against a 29% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge +1.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

GENESIS OMEGA (USA) (3) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

For something at a price, RENT'S DUE (USA) (5) carries +2.4 points of edge from a 8% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4SENOR MONEY (USA)SONNY LEON · KEITH W. HARRIS · draw 4 · pool 29% · market #1+1.5#1
  2. 3GENESIS OMEGA (USA)J.G. TORREALBA · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 3 · pool 18% · market #2+1.8#2
  3. 7CASE LAW (USA)HERIBERTO FIGUEROA · TAREQ MOUBARAK · draw 7 · pool 16% · market #3+0.3#3
  4. 5RENT'S DUE (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · BEAU J. CHAPMAN · draw 5 · pool 8% · market #5+2.4#4
  5. 1MR. KHOZAN (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · BERNARDO CAMPOS · draw 1 · pool 12% · market #4-3.1#5
  6. 2WORDSOFINSPIRATION (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · JOSE PINCHIN · draw 2 · pool 4% · market #6+0.2#6
  7. 9MR. AVENTUS (USA)RENZO ROJAS · MANNY REAL · draw 9 · pool 4% · market #7-0.9#7
  8. 6ATOMIC DON (USA)CARLOS MARTINEZ · MARK PASSLEY · draw 6 · pool 4% · market #8-1.0#8
  9. 8GIFT FROM ABOVE (USA)YOLBER TORRES · GEORGINA BAXTER · draw 8 · pool 4% · market #9-1.2#9

Race 2 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
5f Turf · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
5The pickTHE COROMOTO (USA)pool 66% · model 53.1% · EDWIN GONZALEZ
2Next bestAUTHENTIC GUITAR (USA)pool 14% · model 11.7% · JOSE E. MORELOS
7At a priceI LOVE INES (USA)pool 0% · model 7.7% · CARLOS MARTINEZ

THE COROMOTO (USA) (5) is the pick: model 53% against a 66% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge -12.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

AUTHENTIC GUITAR (USA) (2) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, I LOVE INES (USA) (7) carries +7.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5THE COROMOTO (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 5 · pool 66% · market #1-12.9#1
  2. 2AUTHENTIC GUITAR (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · DANTE ZANELLI · draw 2 · pool 14% · market #2-2.3#2
  3. 3MY HONEY MOTHER (USA)J.G. TORREALBA · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+11.0#3
  4. 1CAJUN EMPRESS (USA)LEONEL REYES · FRANCISCO ALANIS · draw 1 · pool 12% · market #3-2.2#4
  5. 7I LOVE INES (USA)CARLOS MARTINEZ · ANGEL M. RODRIGUEZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+7.7#5
  6. 4NOFFIES LATE NITE (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · FRANK RUSSO · draw 4 · pool 4% · market #4-0.3#6
  7. 6FALINA BLUE (USA)HERIBERTO FIGUEROA · ANGEL M. RODRIGUEZ · draw 6 · pool 4% · market #5-1.0#7

Race 3 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
1The pickBRENNA (USA)pool 0% · model 16.3% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ
3Next bestMY LADY JAMES (USA)pool 0% · model 15.1% · JONATHAN SANTOS
4At a priceWICKED LEGACY (USA)pool 0% · model 14.1% · SAMY CAMACHO

BRENNA (USA) (1) is the pick: model 16% against a 0% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge +16.3 points.

The pool makes SLEW DIVA (USA) (6) favourite at 3%; the model rates it 13%, so we overturn the favourite.

MY LADY JAMES (USA) (3) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, WICKED LEGACY (USA) (4) carries +14.1 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1BRENNA (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · SEBASTIAN PULGARIN · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+16.3#1
  2. 3MY LADY JAMES (USA)JONATHAN SANTOS · PEDRO R. GARCIA · draw 3 · pool — · market #3+15.1#2
  3. 2R FIREBIRD (USA)LEONEL REYES · STEVE BUDHOO · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+14.8#3
  4. 4WICKED LEGACY (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · KATHLEEN O'CONNELL · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+14.1#4
  5. 5BONMATI (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · JOSE M. CASTRO · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+14.0#5
  6. 6SLEW DIVA (USA)CARLOS MARTINEZ · CARLOS NARVAEZ · draw 6 · pool 3% · market #1-86.6#6
  7. 7FIVE EYES ONMICHEL (USA)JOZBIN Z. SANTANA · RODERICK R. RODRIGUEZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+12.4#7

Race 4 · Gulfstream Park · 6 runners

Usable
Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
2The pickHAPPY RIDE (USA)pool 8% · model 27.5% · SONNY LEON
5Next bestMORETASTIC (USA)pool 8% · model 27.2% · SAMY CAMACHO
1At a priceCHLOE'S TOY (USA)pool 0% · model 14.5% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ

HAPPY RIDE (USA) (2) is the pick: model 27% against a 8% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge -12.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MORETASTIC (USA) (5) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, CHLOE'S TOY (USA) (1) carries +14.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2HAPPY RIDE (USA)SONNY LEON · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 2 · pool 8% · market #1-12.5#1
  2. 5MORETASTIC (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · MARCUS J. VITALI · draw 5 · pool 8% · market #2-12.8#2
  3. 4MUSICAL DESIGN (USA)LEONEL REYES · GARY G. JACKSON · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+15.8#3
  4. 1CHLOE'S TOY (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · AMADOR MEREI SANCHEZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #5+14.5#4
  5. 6STORM WEST (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+11.8#5
  6. 3BAD GAL PARTY (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · DAVID FAWKES · draw 3 · pool 4% · market #3-16.7#6

Race 5 · Gulfstream Park · 10 runners

Blind
5f Turf · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 2 of 10 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 10SEVEN OF HEARTS (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · MARK E. CASSE · draw 10 · pool 21% · market #1—#1
  2. 9AMERICAN REIGN (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#2
  3. 3RHETT DREAMS (USA)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#3
  4. 6SASS SASS (USA)SONNY LEON · MARK E. CASSE · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#4
  5. 8SASSY SOF (USA)J.G. TORREALBA · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#5
  6. 5BESSAN (USA)LEONEL REYES · TAREQ MOUBARAK · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#6
  7. 1MAXYMISS (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · RAMON MINGUET · draw 1 · pool — · market #9—#7
  8. 4NIC'S AND NAT'S (USA)RENZO ROJAS · HERBERT MILLER · draw 4 · pool — · market #10—#8
  9. 7EAGER GAL (USA)NIK JUAREZ · ROHAN G. CRICHTON · draw 7 · pool 3% · market #2—#9
  10. 2VELVET ROPE (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 2 · pool 3% · market #3—#10

Race 6 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
9The pickPRACTICALLY FAMOUS (USA)pool 18% · model 41.9% · DIEGO A. HERRERA
1Next bestLADY CHANCE (USA)pool 0% · model 9.6% · LEONEL REYES
8At a priceMY GIRL NINA (USA)pool 0% · model 8.6% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ

PRACTICALLY FAMOUS (USA) (9) is the pick: model 42% against a 18% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -5.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

LADY CHANCE (USA) (1) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, MY GIRL NINA (USA) (8) carries +8.6 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 9PRACTICALLY FAMOUS (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 9 · pool 18% · market #1-5.5#1
  2. 1LADY CHANCE (USA)LEONEL REYES · SEBASTIAN PULGARIN · draw 1 · pool — · market #4+9.6#2
  3. 2SKY OVER KINGSTON (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · DAVID FAWKES · draw 2 · pool 12% · market #2-22.3#3
  4. 8MY GIRL NINA (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · SAL SANTORO · draw 8 · pool — · market #5+8.6#4
  5. 3ZEALOT (USA)J.G. TORREALBA · JOSE M. CASTRO · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+7.9#5
  6. 5MAMA DRAMA (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · GERALD S. BENNETT · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+7.6#6
  7. 6VALIANT HONOR (USA)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 6 · pool — · market #8+7.0#7
  8. 7FROSTY BELLE (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · COLLIN MARAGH · draw 7 · pool — · market #9+6.2#8
  9. 4MITHRIL (USA)MARCOS MENESES · BEAU J. CHAPMAN · draw 4 · pool 8% · market #3-19.1#9

Race 7 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
8f Turf · MAIDEN SOptional claiming Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
2The pickHAPPY FEET HANNAH (USA)pool 57% · model 39.8% · JOSE E. MORELOS
4Next bestINTRICITY (USA)pool 23% · model 16.4% · DIEGO A. HERRERA
5At a priceKOKOMO KITTY (USA)pool 0% · model 11.3% · LEONEL REYES

HAPPY FEET HANNAH (USA) (2) is the pick: model 40% against a 57% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -17.2 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

INTRICITY (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, KOKOMO KITTY (USA) (5) carries +11.3 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2HAPPY FEET HANNAH (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · FERNANDO ABREU · draw 2 · pool 57% · market #1-17.2#1
  2. 4INTRICITY (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · DAVID FAWKES · draw 4 · pool 23% · market #2-6.6#2
  3. 6MO TOWN SOUL (USA)J.G. TORREALBA · RONALD B. SPATZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+12.7#3
  4. 5KOKOMO KITTY (USA)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+11.3#4
  5. 3KNOWS EVERYTHING (USA)EDGAR PEREZ · DALE L. ROMANS · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+11.1#5
  6. 1GLACIA GLAZE (USA)MARCOS MENESES · J. KENT SWEEZEY · draw 1 · pool 10% · market #3-5.4#6
  7. 7DIVINE SECRETS (USA)YOLBER TORRES · MARK E. CASSE · draw 7 · pool 10% · market #4-5.9#7

Race 8 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Usable
Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
1The pickCHAMPAGNE BRUNCH (USA)pool 42% · model 29.8% · SAMY CAMACHO
8Next bestOCALA GALA (USA)pool 32% · model 20.3% · MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ
2At a priceBARAKAH (USA)pool 0% · model 10.1% · RASHEED HUGHES

CHAMPAGNE BRUNCH (USA) (1) is the pick: model 30% against a 42% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge -12.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

OCALA GALA (USA) (8) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, BARAKAH (USA) (2) carries +10.1 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1CHAMPAGNE BRUNCH (USA)SAMY CAMACHO · ANTONIO SANO · draw 1 · pool 42% · market #1-12.6#1
  2. 8OCALA GALA (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · MARK E. CASSE · draw 8 · pool 32% · market #2-12.0#2
  3. 7LA DOLCE VITA (USA)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 7 · pool — · market #5+11.0#3
  4. 2BARAKAH (USA)RASHEED HUGHES · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+10.1#4
  5. 3SWEET DREAM LADY (USA)EDWIN GONZALEZ · ARMANDO DE LA CERDA · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+7.9#5
  6. 6LUCY'S COOKIE (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · FERNANDO ABREU · draw 6 · pool — · market #8+7.6#6
  7. 4VIVI GET YOUR GUNS (USA)CARLOS MARTINEZ · WILLOUGHBY SIMPSON · draw 4 · pool — · market #9+6.7#7
  8. 9FINDING STRENGTH (USA)YOLBER TORRES · MICHAEL YATES · draw 9 · pool 15% · market #3-11.3#8
  9. 5MISS BEETHOVEN (FR)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 5 · pool 10% · market #4-7.5#9

Race 1 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

Usable
6½f Turf · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
4The pickSUN CHASER (USA)pool 30% · model 27.2% · RICARDO GONZALEZ
1Next bestLETMEIN (USA)pool 30% · model 25.5% · ABEL LEZCANO
8At a priceLUCK LUCKY (IRE)pool 0% · model 11.5% · KAZUSHI KIMURA

SUN CHASER (USA) (4) is the pick: model 27% against a 30% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -2.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

LETMEIN (USA) (1) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, LUCK LUCKY (IRE) (8) carries +11.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4SUN CHASER (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · VICTOR L. GARCIA · draw 4 · pool 30% · market #1-2.8#1
  2. 1LETMEIN (USA)ABEL LEZCANO · MARK GLATT · draw 1 · pool 30% · market #2-4.5#2
  3. 7HURRICANE WAY (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · MARK RHEINFORD · draw 7 · pool 20% · market #3-7.0#3
  4. 8LUCK LUCKY (IRE)KAZUSHI KIMURA · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 8 · pool — · market #6+11.5#4
  5. 6MADDIE TEE (USA)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · PETER EURTON · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+8.5#5
  6. 2NEED MO DIAMONDS (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · PAULA S. CAPESTRO · draw 2 · pool — · market #8+7.3#6
  7. 5MILES FINCH (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 5 · pool 10% · market #4-6.4#7
  8. 3DANZING WILD CAT (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · BRENDAN W. GALVIN · draw 3 · pool 10% · market #5-6.6#8

Race 2 · Santa Anita Park · 5 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 5 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
3The pickIMA TRACK STAR (USA)pool 47% · model 40.1% · JOEL ROSARIO
4Next bestSINGLEMORE (USA)pool 47% · model 25.5% · JULIEN R. LEPAROUX
5At a priceMEEKING (USA)pool 0% · model 14.5% · ABEL LEZCANO

IMA TRACK STAR (USA) (3) is the pick: model 40% against a 47% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge -6.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SINGLEMORE (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, MEEKING (USA) (5) carries +14.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3IMA TRACK STAR (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · TIM YAKTEEN · draw 3 · pool 47% · market #1-6.4#1
  2. 4SINGLEMORE (USA)JULIEN R. LEPAROUX · BILL MCLEAN · draw 4 · pool 47% · market #2-21.1#2
  3. 2SOUTHERN MELODEE (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · JEFF MULLINS · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+16.6#3
  4. 5MEEKING (USA)ABEL LEZCANO · BILL MCLEAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+14.5#4
  5. 1CHASE N RYAN (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 1 · pool 7% · market #3-3.6#5

Race 3 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

Thin form
6½f Turf · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
2The pickBAD UNCLE ERNIE (USA)pool 20% · model 39.5% · KYLE FREY
4Next bestSCENE BY ME (USA)pool 0% · model 11.2% · ABEL LEZCANO
6At a priceMO HOLLAND DRIVE (USA)pool 0% · model 9.7% · JOEL ROSARIO

BAD UNCLE ERNIE (USA) (2) is the pick: model 40% against a 20% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge -27.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SCENE BY ME (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

For something at a price, MO HOLLAND DRIVE (USA) (6) carries +9.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2BAD UNCLE ERNIE (USA)KYLE FREY · EDWARD R. FREEMAN · draw 2 · pool 20% · market #1-27.1#1
  2. 4SCENE BY ME (USA)ABEL LEZCANO · MARK GLATT · draw 4 · pool — · market #3+11.2#2
  3. 7ANDTHEOMOFTHEBRAVE (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 7 · pool — · market #4+10.1#3
  4. 6MO HOLLAND DRIVE (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · PETER MILLER · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+9.7#4
  5. 5STERLING SEA (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · VICTOR L. GARCIA · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+9.1#5
  6. 3VICTORIA'S ROCKET (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · ROBERT B. HESS, JR. · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+9.0#6
  7. 8AGROWEST (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · NEIL D. DRYSDALE · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+8.8#7
  8. 1GREY'S BOY (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · VLADIMIR CERIN · draw 1 · pool 10% · market #2-30.6#8

Race 4 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
1The pickDOTTIE HINSON (USA)pool 0% · model 21.8% · JUAN J. HERNANDEZ
4Next bestCOTTA RIDE (USA)pool 0% · model 16.7% · RICARDO GONZALEZ
5At a priceDORIE MILLER (USA)pool 0% · model 16.0% · ARMANDO AYUSO

DOTTIE HINSON (USA) (1) is the pick: model 22% against a 0% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge +21.8 points.

The pool makes KOOL MARIAH (USA) (3) favourite at 10%; the model rates it 13%, so we overturn the favourite.

COTTA RIDE (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, DORIE MILLER (USA) (5) carries +16.0 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1DOTTIE HINSON (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · ANDY MATHIS · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+21.8#1
  2. 4COTTA RIDE (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · MARK GLATT · draw 4 · pool — · market #3+16.7#2
  3. 2BABY NEEDS SHOES (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · PETER MILLER · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+16.6#3
  4. 5DORIE MILLER (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · LEONARD POWELL · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+16.0#4
  5. 6MISS PRACTICAL (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · RYAN HANSON · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+15.9#5
  6. 3KOOL MARIAH (USA)TYLER BAZE · IAN KRULJAC · draw 3 · pool 10% · market #1-87.1#6

Race 5 · Santa Anita Park · 10 runners

Usable
9f Turf · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
6The pickDAIRAGO (FR)pool 30% · model 49.6% · JOEL ROSARIO
4Next bestCAISSON (USA)pool 0% · model 8.0% · ARMANDO AYUSO
7At a priceJIMMY BLUE JEANS (USA)pool 0% · model 6.8% · JULIEN R. LEPAROUX

DAIRAGO (FR) (6) is the pick: model 50% against a 30% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -18.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

CAISSON (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, JIMMY BLUE JEANS (USA) (7) carries +6.8 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6DAIRAGO (FR)JOEL ROSARIO · ROBERT B. HESS, JR. · draw 6 · pool 30% · market #1-18.6#1
  2. 4CAISSON (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · MARK RHEINFORD · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+8.0#2
  3. 9FOMO JOE (USA)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · LORENZO CAMPUZANO · draw 9 · pool — · market #5+7.3#3
  4. 7JIMMY BLUE JEANS (USA)JULIEN R. LEPAROUX · PAUL G. AGUIRRE · draw 7 · pool — · market #6+6.8#4
  5. 5CATHAL (IRE)ARMANDO AGUILAR · JOSE R. VALDEZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+6.3#5
  6. 10OOBUBBAKAKAYO (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · GENARO VALLEJO · draw 10 · pool — · market #8+6.0#6
  7. 2SPEARFISH (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · JAVIER JOSE SIERRA · draw 2 · pool — · market #9+5.8#7
  8. 8GRANDISIMO (USA)ABEL LEZCANO · BRIAN T. CUNNINGHAM · draw 8 · pool — · market #10+5.6#8
  9. 1GEOMETRY (USA)VICTOR ESPINOZA · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 1 · pool 7% · market #2-13.3#9
  10. 3RHYTHEM ON STAGE (USA)KYLE FREY · VICTOR L. GARCIA · draw 3 · pool 7% · market #3-14.0#10

Race 6 · Santa Anita Park · 9 runners

Thin form
6f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
8The pickHUNGOVER (USA)pool 80% · model 45.7% · WELFIN R. ORANTES
6Next bestHE'S GOT FIRE (USA)pool 0% · model 9.5% · DRAYDEN VAN DYKE
2At a priceFINE IRISH MORNING (USA)pool 0% · model 8.2% · TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA

HUNGOVER (USA) (8) is the pick: model 46% against a 80% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge -34.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

HE'S GOT FIRE (USA) (6) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

For something at a price, FINE IRISH MORNING (USA) (2) carries +8.2 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 8HUNGOVER (USA)WELFIN R. ORANTES · RYAN HANSON · draw 8 · pool 80% · market #1-34.3#1
  2. 6HE'S GOT FIRE (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 6 · pool — · market #4+9.5#2
  3. 4FOREGONECONCLUSION (USA)MANUEL AMERICANO · ALBERTO RUVALCABA · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+8.8#3
  4. 2FINE IRISH MORNING (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · TIM MCCANNA · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+8.2#4
  5. 7TIGER TO YOU (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · GARY STUTE · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+8.2#5
  6. 5MYSTIC MOSES (USA)TYLER BAZE · STEVEN MIYADI · draw 5 · pool — · market #8+8.1#6
  7. 3EPIC HERO (USA)PEDRO FLORES · MELANIE W. MCDONALD · draw 3 · pool — · market #9+6.2#7
  8. 9ZENJIN (USA)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · JEFF BONDE · draw 9 · pool 10% · market #2-7.1#8
  9. 1NAUDESNOODLE (USA)ALI HUSAIN · DANIEL AZCARATE · draw 1 · pool 10% · market #3-7.7#9

Race 7 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

Usable
10f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
1The pickMIDNIGHT HORIZON (IRE)pool 38% · model 38.3% · UMBERTO RISPOLI
8Next bestDEA MATRONA (FR)pool 25% · model 12.0% · KAZUSHI KIMURA
3At a priceROSELEE MAY (USA)pool 0% · model 10.1% · RICARDO GONZALEZ

MIDNIGHT HORIZON (IRE) (1) is the pick: model 38% against a 38% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +0.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

DEA MATRONA (FR) (8) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, ROSELEE MAY (USA) (3) carries +10.1 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1MIDNIGHT HORIZON (IRE)UMBERTO RISPOLI · DAN BLACKER · draw 1 · pool 38% · market #1+0.6#1
  2. 8DEA MATRONA (FR)KAZUSHI KIMURA · PETER EURTON · draw 8 · pool 25% · market #2-12.7#2
  3. 7LANILLA (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · VLADIMIR CERIN · draw 7 · pool 25% · market #3-14.0#3
  4. 3ROSELEE MAY (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+10.1#4
  5. 6CAILIN DANA (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · NEIL D. DRYSDALE · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+9.3#5
  6. 4WINK AND A GRIN (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · CARLA GAINES · draw 4 · pool — · market #7+9.1#6
  7. 5DARING PURSUIT (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · DAN BLACKER · draw 5 · pool — · market #8+9.0#7
  8. 2PENTLE BAY (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · SIMON CALLAGHAN · draw 2 · pool 13% · market #4-11.3#8

Race 8 · Santa Anita Park · 12 runners

Thin form
5½f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 8 of 12 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
1The pickZAYDA AT THE SPA (USA)pool 33% · model 16.3% · VICTOR ESPINOZA
7Next bestTHIRSTY CAITLIN (USA)pool 33% · model 15.3% · WANDRYCK CARDOSO FRANCO
2At a priceHARKETTE (USA)pool 0% · model 7.6% · RICARDO GONZALEZ

ZAYDA AT THE SPA (USA) (1) is the pick: model 16% against a 33% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge -17.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

THIRSTY CAITLIN (USA) (7) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

For something at a price, HARKETTE (USA) (2) carries +7.6 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1ZAYDA AT THE SPA (USA)VICTOR ESPINOZA · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 1 · pool 33% · market #1-17.1#1
  2. 7THIRSTY CAITLIN (USA)WANDRYCK CARDOSO FRANCO · EDWIN G. ALVAREZ · draw 7 · pool 33% · market #2-18.0#2
  3. 10LUCKY TAMMY (USA)WELFIN R. ORANTES · DEAN PEDERSON · draw 9 · pool 25% · market #3-13.4#3
  4. 2HARKETTE (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · MIKE PUYPE · draw 2 · pool — · market #5+7.6#4
  5. 5AZ DAISY (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · IAN KRULJAC · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+7.5#5
  6. 9CHACHACHA CHING (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 8 · pool — · market #7+7.1#6
  7. 11JADE'S MOST WANTED (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · JORGE PERIBAN · draw 10 · pool — · market #8+7.0#7
  8. 3SHEMAKESMEMAD (USA)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · STEVEN MIYADI · draw 3 · pool — · market #9+6.7#8
  9. 4FIERY TIGER (USA)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · BRIAN J. KORINER · draw 4 · pool — · market #10+6.7#9
  10. 12BEASTRO (USA)KYLE FREY · VAL BRINKERHOFF · draw 11 · pool — · market #11+6.6#10
  11. 6QUICK UP (USA)TYLER BAZE · JORGE PERIBAN · draw 6 · pool — · market #12+6.4#11
  12. 8TIZ LEZENDARY (USA)SCRATCHED · draw 98 · pool 8% · market #4-7.2#12

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Keeneland (1.17 runs/horse) · Belmont Park (1.08 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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