Race 8 · Gulfstream Parkpool vs model · Fri 16 Oct 2026
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 7LA DOLCE VITA (USA)+1.620% · 18%
  2. 9FINDING STRENGTH (USA)-10.219% · 29%
  3. 5MISS BEETHOVEN (FR)+2.317% · 15%
  4. 6LUCY'S COOKIE (USA)-5.415% · 20%
  5. 8OCALA GALA (USA) (Koşmaz)+9.39% · 0%
  6. 1CHAMPAGNE BRUNCH (USA)+0.18% · 8%
  7. 3SWEET DREAM LADY (USA)+0.37% · 7%
Result pending · record

Santa Anita Park picks — Sat 17 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →

8 races today · 22 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 1 track0 usable of 8 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Fri 16 Oct 2026, 16:03 ET · permalink

Pools not open yet

The Turkish tote opens its win pool on these 8 US races on the morning of the card (it stays thin until close to post time). This page was written from the race cards alone; verdicts and pool shares fill in about an hour before each track’s first race, once the pool has formed. Meanwhile: yesterday's results · the record.

Today · Sat 17 Oct 2026

8 races across Santa Anita Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 8PEACHY CANYON (IRE)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · LAUREN ROBSON · draw 8 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3SHANE'S THE BRAINS (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4CHAIR'S COIN (IRE)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2ISLAND HOME (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 7BRAZORIA (GB)JOEL ROSARIO · RICHARD E. MANDELLA · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 1BOURBON STORY (USA)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · ROBERT B. HESS, JR. · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 5LACEY LOVE (USA)JULIEN R. LEPAROUX · MARK GLATT · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 6I'LL BE YOUR BABY (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · PATRICK GALLAGHER · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#8

Race 2 · Santa Anita Park · 5 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 5 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3SPECIAL CLUB (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2JERRY'S SPIRIT (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · TIM YAKTEEN · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4GETTINBY (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · SEAN WILLIAMS · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1OTTO THE CONQUEROR (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5NO MORE DING DONGS (USA)KYLE FREY · JESUS J. URANGA · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5

Race 3 · Santa Anita Park · 5 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Stakes · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 5 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2ARTISLAS (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · JEFF MULLINS · draw 2 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 5ENDLESSLY (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 5 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1NESSO'S LASTHARRAH (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · JEFF BONDE · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 4TWIRLING POINT (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · BLAINE D. WRIGHT · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3ASTRONOMER (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · SIMON CALLAGHAN · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5

Race 4 · Santa Anita Park · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3CAN'T SAY THAT (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1PHOTOGENIC (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · LEONARD POWELL · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5BITTER TRUTH (USA)JOSE VALDIVIA, JR. · JOSE R. VALDEZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 7SPRINGLINE (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · RYAN HANSON · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6BEAR'S BOARD (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · JORGE FARIAS · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 4SEI BELLA (USA)TYLER BAZE · JORGE PERIBAN · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 2LOVELY MEDAGLIA (USA)EPIFANIO GARCIA · D. WAYNE BAKER · draw 2 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 5 · Santa Anita Park · 11 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 9 of 11 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4BOTTLED IN BOND (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · CARLA GAINES · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 11REPO (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 11 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 9RED RAIDER (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · CRAIG ANTHONY LEWIS · draw 9 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 6LIL PRINCE CAIRO (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · CARLA GAINES · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 10IS THAT YOU WING (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · DAN BLACKER · draw 10 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 5MISSED FORTUNE (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 3ENJOY THE RIDE (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · RYAN HANSON · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 7HAUNTED HOUSE (USA)KYLE FREY · GARY STUTE · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 1RAPID THIRSTY (USA)JOSE VALDIVIA, JR. · EDWIN G. ALVAREZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 8CITY OF FORZA (USA)EPIFANIO GARCIA · EDWIN G. ALVAREZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 2OLYMPIAN THIRST (USA)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · ADAN FARIAS · draw 2 · pool — · market #11—#11

Race 6 · Santa Anita Park · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 6 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2I KNOW NOTHING (USA)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 2 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 6DANIELLE (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · AGGIE ORDONEZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4BLAME ASHLEY (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · HECTOR O. PALMA · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5IMNOSURETHING (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · PETER EURTON · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3OBHAYVE (USA)EDGAR PAYERAS · VANN BELVOIR · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 1EAST WITTON (USA)ADRIAN ESCOBEDO · RYAN HANSON · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7BREAKAWAY BABE (USA)KYLE FREY · FELIX RONDAN · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 7 · Santa Anita Park · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4MOON ICE (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · PETER EURTON · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 5BACK NINE STAKES (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · SEAN WILLIAMS · draw 5 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 9TIMAYYYY (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 9 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1FLAMBOYANT (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3MOONLIT SONATA (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · TIM YAKTEEN · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2NON DOMICILE (USA)JULIEN R. LEPAROUX · MARK GLATT · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7TRUMP ERA (USA)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · RYAN HANSON · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 6KNOWHERE (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · BLAINE D. WRIGHT · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 8AFTER DAWN (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · RICHARD E. MANDELLA · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 8 · Santa Anita Park · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1MELBA MONTGOMERY (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3GODBLESS HER (USA)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 7PALACE MISCHIEF (USA)CESAR ORTEGA · JORGE BAUTISTA · draw 7 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5SHE SPENDSALOT (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · BILL MCLEAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 4STYLISHLY BIG (USA)ABEL LEZCANO · MARTIN VALENZUELA III · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 8BLAME THE TRACK (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · SIMON CALLAGHAN · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 9DANCING THRU FIRE (USA)EDGAR PAYERAS · SALLY P. RIVERA · draw 9 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 2LONG LEGGED BABS (USA)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · VAL BRINKERHOFF · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 6STRONG PROOF (USA)CRISTOBAL HERRERA · MARCIA STORTZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #9—#9

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Keeneland (1.17 runs/horse) · Belmont Park (1.08 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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