Race 7 · Santa Anita Parkpool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 7DIVISIBLE BY (USA)-11.735% · 47%
  2. 1ESSOS (USA)+2.516% · 13%
  3. 4STAMP MY PASSPORT (USA)+2.413% · 11%
  4. 5ROSTOVSKY (USA)+4.113% · 9%
  5. 2SAND BAGGER (USA)-0.510% · 11%
  6. 8NEWS AT TEN (GB)+1.86% · 4%
  7. 3KNIGHT TO KING (IRE)+0.94% · 3%
DIVISIBLE BY (USA) is the pick: model 35% against a 47% pool share · verdict ↓

Santa Anita Park picks — Sun 18 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →

6 races today · 24 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 1 track2 usable of 6 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Sun 18 Oct 2026, 19:15 ET · permalink

3 of 6 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Sun 18 Oct 2026

6 races across Santa Anita Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Santa Anita Park · 11 runners

Thin form
6½f Turf · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 11 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
11The pickI'M LOVESTRUCK (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 4.5% · EPIFANIO GARCIA
8Next bestVELVET REIGN (IRE) (3)pool 0% · model 0.0% · EMISAEL JARAMILLO

I'M LOVESTRUCK (USA) (Koşmaz) (11) is the pick: model 4% against a 0% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +4.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

VELVET REIGN (IRE) (3) (8) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 11I'M LOVESTRUCK (USA)EPIFANIO GARCIA · D. WAYNE BAKER · draw 11 · pool — · market #1scr#8
  2. 8VELVET REIGN (IRE) (3)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 8 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 6ZURAYA (GB) (2)UMBERTO RISPOLI · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 6 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 9STORM LADY (GB) (1)KAZUSHI KIMURA · CARLA GAINES · draw 9 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 7TOKALA (USA) (7)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · RYAN HANSON · draw 7 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5BANZAI BETTY (USA) (4)KYLE FREY · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 2CHAMPAGNIA (USA) (9)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · BILL MCLEAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 1KIZAZI (USA) (6)ARMANDO AYUSO · JAY NEHF · draw 1 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 4ARDENTE (USA) (10)ABEL LEZCANO · MARK GLATT · draw 4 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99
  10. 3TONAKITTY (USA) (4)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · PETER EURTON · draw 3 · pool — · market #10+0.0#99
  11. 10JOBARB (USA) (8)JULIEN R. LEPAROUX · ROBERT B. HESS, JR. · draw 10 · pool — · market #11+0.0#99

Race 3 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 6 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3QUEEN BAY (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · SIMON CALLAGHAN · draw 3 · pool — · market #1scr#6
  2. 2KINTRIGUE (USA) (5)KAZUSHI KIMURA · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 6DRULINER (USA) (4)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · CRAIG ANTHONY LEWIS · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 4MY GIRL MIA (USA) (2)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 1LITTLE MO (USA) (3)ARMANDO AYUSO · PETER EURTON · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5EGYPTIAN MISTRESS (USA) (1)JOEL ROSARIO · NEIL D. DRYSDALE · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99

Race 4 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 6 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4JACK FISH (USA)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 4 · pool — · market #1scr#6
  2. 1SUPERNAL (USA) (2)ARMANDO AYUSO · RONALD W. ELLIS · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 6GOT'M COT'M (USA) (1)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · VAL BRINKERHOFF · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3MR. MACHUPICCHU (USA) (5)WELFIN R. ORANTES · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5GYPSY TEARS (USA) (4)EDGAR PAYERAS · GENARO VALLEJO · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 2PIPER'S CAUSEWAY (USA) (3)ARMANDO AGUILAR · JESUS J. URANGA · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#99

Race 6 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 6 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5GENUINE GRACE (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · ANTHONY K. SAAVEDRA · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#3
  2. 1VICIOUS PRINCESS (USA)WELFIN R. ORANTES · JEFF BONDE · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#4
  3. 2ZUZU'S CLASSIC GAL (USA) (2)ABEL LEZCANO · MARK GLATT · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3VOLCANOLOGIST (USA) (1)RICARDO GONZALEZ · ANDY MATHIS · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4ANYA (USA) (4)ARMANDO AGUILAR · GLORIA HALEY · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6SALLY SAYS (USA) (3)CRISTOBAL HERRERA · GLORIA HALEY · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99

Race 7 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

Usable
10f Turf · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
7The pickDIVISIBLE BY (USA)pool 47% · model 35.3% · JOEL ROSARIO
1Next bestESSOS (USA)pool 13% · model 15.5% · UMBERTO RISPOLI
5At a priceROSTOVSKY (USA)pool 9% · model 13.1% · JUAN J. HERNANDEZ

DIVISIBLE BY (USA) (7) is the pick: model 35% against a 47% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -11.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

ESSOS (USA) (1) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, ROSTOVSKY (USA) (5) carries +4.1 points of edge from a 9% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7DIVISIBLE BY (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · NEIL D. DRYSDALE · draw 7 · pool 47% · market #1-11.7#1
  2. 1ESSOS (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · MARK GLATT · draw 1 · pool 13% · market #2+2.5#2
  3. 4STAMP MY PASSPORT (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · LEONARD POWELL · draw 4 · pool 11% · market #3+2.4#3
  4. 5ROSTOVSKY (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · MARK GLATT · draw 5 · pool 9% · market #5+4.1#4
  5. 2SAND BAGGER (USA)TYLER BAZE · SEAN MCCARTHY · draw 2 · pool 11% · market #4-0.5#5
  6. 8NEWS AT TEN (GB)ARMANDO AYUSO · PETER EURTON · draw 8 · pool 4% · market #6+1.8#6
  7. 3KNIGHT TO KING (IRE)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 3 · pool 3% · market #7+0.9#7
  8. 6DREAMRIDER (USA)KYLE FREY · NEIL D. DRYSDALE · draw 6 · pool 2% · market #8+0.4#8

Race 8 · Santa Anita Park · 7 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
7The pickSCARY FAST RIDE (USA)pool 29% · model 27.0% · TYLER BAZE
5Next bestDANZING FLYER (USA)pool 28% · model 25.3% · JUAN J. HERNANDEZ
6At a pricePAVEL'S ETOILE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 6% · model 8.6% · DRAYDEN VAN DYKE

SCARY FAST RIDE (USA) (7) is the pick: model 27% against a 29% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -2.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

DANZING FLYER (USA) (5) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, PAVEL'S ETOILE (USA) (Koşmaz) (6) carries +2.6 points of edge from a 6% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7SCARY FAST RIDE (USA)TYLER BAZE · ANDY MATHIS · draw 7 · pool 29% · market #1-2.0#1
  2. 5DANZING FLYER (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · SEAN WILLIAMS · draw 5 · pool 28% · market #2-2.7#2
  3. 4LADY MENDELSSOHN (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · CARLA GAINES · draw 4 · pool 21% · market #3-1.4#3
  4. 3STAY IN LINE (USA)WELFIN R. ORANTES · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 3 · pool 11% · market #4-0.4#4
  5. 6PAVEL'S ETOILE (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 6 · pool 6% · market #5scr#5
  6. 2CHRISTA MCAULIFFE (USA)MANUEL AMERICANO · STEVEN MIYADI · draw 2 · pool 4% · market #6+2.0#6
  7. 1HURRICANE LAYLA (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 1 · pool 1% · market #7scr#7

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Keeneland (1.17 runs/horse) · Belmont Park (1.12 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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