Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolispool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 1QUAINT (USA)+6.328% · 22%
  2. 3ANTE ANTMAN (USA)-2.56% · 9%
  3. 4PARKER (USA)-4.75% · 10%
  4. 8FLATWATER (USA)-3.12% · 5%
  5. 9SPEIGHT KNIGHT (USA) (1)+0.00% · 0%
  6. 5GUNZO (USA) (4)+0.00% · 0%
  7. 6MI SARGENTO (USA) (2)+0.00% · 0%
QUAINT (USA) is the pick: model 28% against a 22% pool share · verdict ↓

Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Mahoning Valley picks — Mon 19 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →

13 races today · 25 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Mon 19 Oct 2026 · 3 tracks4 usable of 13 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Mon 19 Oct 2026, 17:15 ET · permalink

6 of 13 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Mon 19 Oct 2026

13 races across Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Mahoning Valley. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 5 · Finger Lakes · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Maiden · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6KILLYBEGS KID (USA)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · JEREMIAH C. ENGLEHART · draw 6 · pool — · market #1—#2
  2. 1THUNDERCLAP (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#6
  3. 4UNSETTLED (USA)STEVEN FRET · BETH MILLER-SAUL · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#7
  4. 9HOPPER ROCKS (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · MICHAEL T. SABINE · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#8
  5. 3NICKERSON (USA)CHRISTOPHER ELLIOTT · FERNANDO ABREU · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#9
  6. 10ROYAL CHANCE (USA)JACQUELINE A. DAVIS · DEBRA A. BREED · draw 10 · pool — · market #6—#10
  7. 2MR. POOLS (USA) (2)J. M. ROHENA · CHRIS J. ENGLEHART · draw 2 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 5GRIZZ AT THE GATE (USA) (4)JEREMIAS FLORES · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 7GITOLE (USA) (3)LUIS E. PEREZ · CHARLTON BAKER · draw 7 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 8BOOTSY'S A RASCAL (USA) (1)JOEL CRUZ · JONATHAN B. BUCKLEY · draw 8 · pool — · market #10—#99

Race 6 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5CHIANTI FINO (USA)J. M. ROHENA · RAFAEL JOSE ROHENA · draw 5 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 1CEIBA (USA)JOEL CRUZ · RAFAEL JOSE ROHENA · draw 1 · pool — · market #2scr#5
  3. 2GAME AND BLUE (USA) (4)JOSE BAEZ · DANA SAUL · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3TY TY ROSE (USA) (3)LUIS E. PEREZ · MICHAEL S. FERRARO · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4BEE DARING (USA) (2)STEVEN FRET · KATLYNN GUTTERSON · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6TIZ RUTHLESS (USA) (5)JOHN C. BERRIOS · STEPHEN P. UBBINK · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7MORICHES BAY (USA) (1)JACQUELINE A. DAVIS · WILLIAM H. BARTLETT · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 8 · Finger Lakes · 8 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
8The pickI'M SOLO N IN LOVE (USA)pool 15% · model 15.3% · JOEL CRUZ
3Next bestRINGGOOD (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 6.2% · WLADIMIR RENGIFO

I'M SOLO N IN LOVE (USA) (8) is the pick: model 15% against a 15% pool share, 8 runs of US form on file, edge +0.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

RINGGOOD (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 8I'M SOLO N IN LOVE (USA)JOEL CRUZ · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 8 · pool 15% · market #1+0.4#3
  2. 3RINGGOOD (USA)WLADIMIR RENGIFO · BRENT BOND · draw 3 · pool — · market #4scr#6
  3. 2BOLT TO RUN (USA)LUIS PENA · RAMON VAZQUEZ, SR. · draw 2 · pool 4% · market #2-0.3#7
  4. 5COINAGE (USA)JACQUELINE A. DAVIS · MARCUS GEORGE THOMPSON · draw 5 · pool 2% · market #3+0.0#8
  5. 1FIERY HEART (USA) (2)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · JONATHAN B. BUCKLEY · draw 1 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 4TONY O (USA) (3)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · KATLYNN GUTTERSON · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 6STJAMES (USA) (4)OSCAR GOMEZ · RACHEL SELLS · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 7FEVER NIGHT (USA) (1)CHRISTOPHER ELLIOTT · FERNANDO ABREU · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 7 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
7The pickEYES ON ANDY (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 28% · model 26.9% · ANGEL SERPA
6Next bestLEO'S BEETLE BOMB (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 13.4% · JOSEPH M. ROMERO

EYES ON ANDY (USA) (Koşmaz) (7) is the pick: model 27% against a 28% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge -1.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

LEO'S BEETLE BOMB (USA) (Koşmaz) (6) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7EYES ON ANDY (USA)ANGEL SERPA · JOHN F. HILL, JR. · draw 7 · pool 28% · market #1scr#1
  2. 6LEO'S BEETLE BOMB (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 6 · pool — · market #2scr#4
  3. 2LIL CHANCE (USA) (4)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 5OOH MY BOB (USA) (3)MICAH MEEKS · DEVARUS DOUGLASS · draw 5 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 1MOUNTAIN MIKE (USA) (1)ALBERTO BURGOS · CARLOS RAMIREZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 4REACHIN OUT (USA) (2)VICTOR LARA · DARLENE GREEN · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 3TANEYCOMO (USA) (5)JOSE RIQUELME · JOSE PAYE · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
1The pickQUAINT (USA)pool 22% · model 28.1% · MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR.
7Next bestEL PAYASITO (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 9.1% · AMIR MENDOZA

QUAINT (USA) (1) is the pick: model 28% against a 22% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge +6.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

EL PAYASITO (USA) (Koşmaz) (7) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1QUAINT (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · GENARO GARCIA · draw 1 · pool 22% · market #1+6.3#1
  2. 7EL PAYASITO (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 7 · pool — · market #5scr#4
  3. 3ANTE ANTMAN (USA)SAMUEL E BERMUDEZ · DENIS CLULEY · draw 3 · pool 9% · market #3-2.5#5
  4. 4PARKER (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · AGUSTIN GONZALEZ, JR. · draw 4 · pool 10% · market #2-4.7#7
  5. 8FLATWATER (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · ROBERT E. DOBBS, JR. · draw 8 · pool 5% · market #4-3.1#9
  6. 9SPEIGHT KNIGHT (USA) (1)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 9 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 5GUNZO (USA) (4)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · DAWN MARTIN · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 6MI SARGENTO (USA) (2)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · TERRY VAUGHN · draw 6 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 2FOUR STAR GENERAL (USA) (3)SANTO SANJUR · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 2 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99

Race 4 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 8UPTURNED BRIM (USA)BRODY MARTINEZ · MICHAEL L. REAVIS · draw 8 · pool — · market #1scr#6
  2. 2MR. SENSEI (USA)SANTO SANJUR · REY HERNANDEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #2scr#9
  3. 9MAXIMUS C (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · AGUSTIN GONZALEZ, JR. · draw 9 · pool — · market #3scr#10
  4. 6HEALING WATERS (USA) (1)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 1ISMYBUSINESS (USA) (2)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 4RIGOBERTO (USA) (4)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · GENNADI DOROCHENKO · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 3STORM THE STREETS (USA) (5)VICTOR LARA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 5DOCTOR NASH (USA) (3)RAFAEL MOJICA, JR. · JOHN STEVE CANNON · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 10ME AND CHILI (USA) (6)HANNAH LEAHEY · ISRAEL J. GARCIA · draw 10 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 7ICE EXPRESS (USA) (7)JOSE RIQUELME · ISRAEL J. GARCIA · draw 7 · pool — · market #10—#99

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Claiming Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 1 of 12 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4THE TIPSY CROW (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TROY NEWTON · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 6TRIPLE DARE (USA)SUMMER PAULY · JUSTIN WOJCZYNSKI · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1THUNDER TOWN (USA)SANTO SANJUR · REY HERNANDEZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#6
  4. 12DOSC (USA)DANNY SHEEHY · BRENDAN P. WALSH · draw 12 · pool — · market #4—#7
  5. 7GLACIER (USA)ALEX ACHARD · EOIN G. HARTY · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#8
  6. 9KUTTAWA (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · J. KEITH DESORMEAUX · draw 9 · pool — · market #6—#9
  7. 2BLACKMORE (USA)JANE ELLIOTT · CONOR MURPHY · draw 2 · pool — · market #7—#10
  8. 8BLAZING MEMORIES (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · DEVARUS DOUGLASS · draw 8 · pool — · market #8scr#11
  9. 11MAGNUS CROWN (USA) (4)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · MICHEL DOUAIHY · draw 11 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 3BOMBAY (USA) (3)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · D. WHITWORTH BECKMAN · draw 3 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 5J'ACCUSE (USA) (2)JAMES GRAHAM · HELEN PITTS · draw 5 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 10INTHEBUDGET (USA) (1)DECLAN CANNON · JIMMY CORRIGAN · draw 10 · pool — · market #12—#99

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5I'MALITTLETHIRSTY (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#6
  2. 1PETER'S DREAM (USA)MICAH MEEKS · JOHN HARAN · draw 1 · pool — · market #2scr#7
  3. 3FOCACCIA (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · SCOTT D. MULLINS · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#8
  4. 6ZEALOUS JUSTICE (USA) (4)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · AARON M. WEST · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 7ESTRELLA BRILLANTE (USA) (3)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 2IMPERIAL MERLOT (USA) (1)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · ANTHONY F. CUNNINGHAM · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 4STARRY EYE JUSTICE (USA) (2)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8LUNA DIVA (USA) (5)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 13 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 13 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
7The pickHE'S A CHARMER (USA)pool 19% · model 19.3% · ALEX ACHARD
4Next bestMI COMPADRE (USA)pool 17% · model 15.4% · EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL
13At a priceSENOR VALENTINE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 5.9% · JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR

HE'S A CHARMER (USA) (7) is the pick: model 19% against a 19% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge +0.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MI COMPADRE (USA) (4) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, SENOR VALENTINE (USA) (Koşmaz) (13) carries +5.9 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7HE'S A CHARMER (USA)ALEX ACHARD · ETHAN W. WEST · draw 7 · pool 19% · market #1+0.3#1
  2. 4MI COMPADRE (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · BRIAN WILLIAMSON · draw 4 · pool 17% · market #2-1.6#2
  3. 2RULOOKINFORRAYRAY (USA)IRVING MONCADA · THOMAS DRURY, JR. · draw 2 · pool 15% · market #3-4.0#3
  4. 10MORAL MAN (USA)JAMES GRAHAM · DANIEL SIMPSON · draw 10 · pool 12% · market #4-2.0#4
  5. 3GARRYOWEN (USA)SUMMER PAULY · ED MOGER, JR. · draw 3 · pool 9% · market #6+0.8#5
  6. 11THIS BEAU KNOWS (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · CHRIS M. BLOCK · draw 11 · pool 10% · market #5-0.4#6
  7. 8WINERY (USA)CESAR ORANTES · KRISTINE M. KAUFELD · draw 8 · pool 6% · market #7+0.7#7
  8. 13SENOR VALENTINE (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · JOSE CAZARES · draw 13 · pool — · market #13scr#8
  9. 1KNICKS N STONES (USA)SANTIAGO GONZALEZ · KATHY JARVIS · draw 1 · pool 4% · market #8-0.3#9
  10. 5GUN IT AND RUN IT (USA)VICTOR LARA · ROBERT POMPELL · draw 5 · pool 3% · market #9+0.0#10
  11. 9LINE OF REASON (USA)DANNY SHEEHY · CONOR MURPHY · draw 9 · pool 2% · market #10+0.4#11
  12. 6ALL ABOUT CROGE (USA)JANE ELLIOTT · PAUL H. BROWN, JR. · draw 6 · pool 2% · market #11+0.2#12
  13. 12ONLY FRANK KNOWS (USA)JOSE RIQUELME · JOSE PAYE · draw 12 · pool 1% · market #12+0.1#13

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 16 runners

Thin form
5f Turf · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 7 of 16 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
1The pickPTICHKA (USA)pool 46% · model 34.2% · ALEX ACHARD
9Next bestRIGHT AGAIN AMY (USA)pool 14% · model 10.1% · MITCHELL MURRILL

PTICHKA (USA) (1) is the pick: model 34% against a 46% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -11.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

RIGHT AGAIN AMY (USA) (9) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1PTICHKA (USA)ALEX ACHARD · ETHAN W. WEST · draw 1 · pool 46% · market #1-11.3#1
  2. 9RIGHT AGAIN AMY (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · CHRISTOPHER DAVIS · draw 9 · pool 14% · market #2-3.8#2
  3. 6FLYER FLY (USA)DANNY SHEEHY · RILEY MOTT · draw 6 · pool 10% · market #3-2.1#3
  4. 7CAPABILITY (USA)SUMMER PAULY · ED MOGER, JR. · draw 7 · pool 7% · market #4-1.1#4
  5. 12SILENCIOSA (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · ROBERT E. DOBBS, JR. · draw 12 · pool 6% · market #6-0.1#5
  6. 4MESDEMON (USA)JANN N. HERNANDEZ · MARCELINO TORRES · draw 4 · pool 7% · market #5-1.7#6
  7. 16SELAH (USA)LUIS FUENMAYOR · JOSE M. CAMEJO · draw 16 · pool — · market #12scr#7
  8. 3YALINA (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ISRAEL ACEVEDO · draw 3 · pool — · market #13scr#8
  9. 14IMONLYSLEEPING (USA)DECLAN CANNON · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 14 · pool — · market #14scr#9
  10. 5TINY TAPPER (USA)SANTO SANJUR · JIMMY CORRIGAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #15scr#10
  11. 15JENNYWANTSAPRETZEL (USA)MIGUEL FERNANDEZ · MATT WILLIAMS · draw 15 · pool — · market #16scr#11
  12. 10OH BONITA (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · CIRILO GOROSTIETA · draw 10 · pool 3% · market #7-0.5#12
  13. 8VERY ENHANCED (USA)JANE ELLIOTT · JOSE LUIZ ARANHA · draw 8 · pool 3% · market #8-0.7#13
  14. 11PASSIONFORWINNING (USA)VICTOR LARA · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 11 · pool 2% · market #9-0.0#14
  15. 2K P KWEEN (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · MARCELINO TORRES · draw 2 · pool 2% · market #10-0.2#15
  16. 13SAFFRON ROUGE (USA)ORLANDO BOCACHICA · ANNA DECKER · draw 13 · pool 1% · market #11-0.0#16

Race 1 · Mahoning Valley · 8 runners

Blind
6f Dirt · Claiming Maiden · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 7LIVE A LITTLE (USA)LUIS ALBERTO BATISTA · JACINTO LOPEZ · draw 7 · pool 1% · market #1scr#8
  2. 1RIGHT ON THE MUNNY (USA) (1)GERARDO CORRALES · NICOLE HIGHAM · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2VENTURE ON (USA) (5)ERIK BARBARAN · RICARDO BAILEY · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3RADIO SILENT (USA) (4)DAVID J. HALDAR · CANDACE M. HUFFMAN · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4RED HEAD KID (USA) (2)DESHAWN L. PARKER · RICARDO GONZALEZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5JOHN FITZGERALD (USA) (6)HUMBERTO HALDAR · CRAIG SWEETING · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6CHECK THE FACTS (USA) (3)ANGEL I. DIAZ · JUSTINE EDER · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8SOCIAL HISTORY (USA) (7)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · ROBERT C. CLINE · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 7 · Mahoning Valley · 10 runners

Thin form
8f Dirt · Allowance, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
2The pickMOBIL DREAM STAR (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 7.8% · JOE STOKES
3Next bestPIRINOLA (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 6.2% · HUMBERTO HALDAR

MOBIL DREAM STAR (USA) (Koşmaz) (2) is the pick: model 8% against a 0% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge +7.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

PIRINOLA (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2MOBIL DREAM STAR (USA)JOE STOKES · DAVID ST. CLAIR · draw 2 · pool — · market #1scr#5
  2. 3PIRINOLA (USA)HUMBERTO HALDAR · VALENTIN LECHUGA · draw 3 · pool — · market #2scr#6
  3. 1GABADOST (USA) (6)BAILEY WEATHERLY · CHRISTI LYNN ESPOSITO · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 4GYPSY KAT (USA) (8)DESHAWN L. PARKER · JOHANNA URIETA · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 5ALMOST DRILLED (USA) (7)LUIS RAUL RIVERA · JEFFREY A. RADOSEVICH · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6STACY ELLEN (USA) (1)MAURO CEDILLO · RICHARD ZIELINSKI · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7ANICETTA (USA) (5)GERARDO CORRALES · JOHANNA URIETA · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 8GREEK BOUTIQUE (USA) (4)LUIS ALBERTO BATISTA · OSCAR ROMERO · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 9JAC'S COCOABELLA (USA) (3)CHELSEY KEISER · IVAN VAZQUEZ · draw 9 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99
  10. 10LOCO COCO (USA) (2)RICARDO FELICIANO · TINA CASALINOVA · draw 10 · pool — · market #10+0.0#99

Race 8 · Mahoning Valley · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 0 of 12 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1MOXIE ROXY (USA)ERIK BARBARAN · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 1 · pool — · market #1scr#5
  2. 12OPALITE (USA)GABRIEL LAGUNES · RICHARD ESTVANKO · draw 12 · pool — · market #2scr#6
  3. 5SHARON THE DANCER (USA)ANGEL I. DIAZ · EMILY SZCZEPANSKI · draw 5 · pool — · market #3scr#8
  4. 2SHE STARTED IT (USA) (9)RICARDO FELICIANO · JEVON D. CRUMLEY · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 3LLUVIA FUERTE (USA) (2)HUMBERTO HALDAR · SERGIO DON JUAN · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 4OHIO GIRL (USA) (6)GUILLERMO RODRIGUEZ · RICHARD ZIELINSKI · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6RAGS TO RUBY (USA) (8)JEROME J. INNIS · JASON DACOSTA · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 7CAPTAIN WINDY (USA) (3)SERGIO FIGUEROA · SCOTT W. BARKER · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 8SOME GIVEN EVENT (USA) (1)JOE STOKES · ROBERT C. CLINE · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 9OAKLYN (USA) (4)CHELSEY KEISER · DAVID WOLOCHUK · draw 9 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 10THE WAY IT IS (USA) (7)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 10 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 11DATE WITH DESTINY (USA) (5)LUIS RAUL RIVERA · JUSTIN RADOSEVICH · draw 11 · pool — · market #12—#99

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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