Race 7 · Finger Lakespool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 1LIPAN LAW (USA) (1)+0.00% · 0%
  2. 2RUMINT (USA) (3)+0.00% · 0%
  3. 3LAST GLORY (USA) (4)+0.00% · 0%
  4. 4OUR PREFERRED PAL (USA) (2)+0.00% · 0%
  5. 5RUBYS MISSION (USA) (5)+0.00% · 0%
  6. 6MOONTOWN (USA) (6)+0.00% · 0%
APOLLONIA VITELLI (USA) (Koşmaz) is the pick: model 10% against a 0% pool share · verdict ↓

Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis picks — Tue 20 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →

10 races today · 26 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 2 tracks5 usable of 10 races · model overturns the favourite in 1Written Tue 20 Oct 2026, 17:15 ET · permalink

5 of 10 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Tue 20 Oct 2026

10 races across Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 4 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1BAD JOKE (USA)KEIBER J. COA · JON G. ARNETT · draw 1 · pool — · market #1scr#2
  2. 6BURNING MUNNY (USA)NAZARIO ALVARADO · THALIA ARECHE · draw 6 · pool — · market #2scr#5
  3. 2NOT MY TYPE (USA) (3)CHRIS RUSSELL · MICHAEL T. SABINE · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3DISCO DANCER (USA) (4)OSCAR GOMEZ · MATTHEW CLARKE · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4LAST DRINK (USA) (1)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · RICHARD SHAFFER · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5MONTAUK SURF (USA) (2)JEREMIAS FLORES · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7DIGNIFIED RESPONSE (USA) (5)BEN S. JOSEPH · DEWIGHT J. WADAMS · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 5 · Finger Lakes · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3HEAVENS LEE (USA)REYLU GUTIERREZ · LUIS GUTIERREZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #1scr#6
  2. 1CUE THE MUSIC (USA) (4)JACQUELINE A. DAVIS · EDUARDO MAVER, JR. · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2NURSE BUNNY (USA) (2)OSCAR GOMEZ · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 4MOTOWN OMI (USA) (8)KEIBER J. COA · JON G. ARNETT · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5MOONLIT WEEKEND (USA) (7)J. M. ROHENA · MATTHEW CLARKE · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6RING OF THE RISE (USA) (3)LUIS E. PEREZ · LINDA K. DIXON · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7BIG ADVANTAGE (USA) (1)JEREMIAS FLORES · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8CLASSIWEST (USA) (6)WLADIMIR RENGIFO · KATLYNN GUTTERSON · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 9LOLLIPOPS (USA) (5)LUIS PENA · JOHN A. GRABOWSKI · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 7 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Allowance, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
7The pickAPOLLONIA VITELLI (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 9.8% · LUIS E. PEREZ
1Next bestLIPAN LAW (USA) (1)pool 0% · model 0.0% · KEIBER J. COA

APOLLONIA VITELLI (USA) (Koşmaz) (7) is the pick: model 10% against a 0% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge +9.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

LIPAN LAW (USA) (1) (1) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7APOLLONIA VITELLI (USA)LUIS E. PEREZ · MICHAEL A. LECESSE · draw 7 · pool — · market #1scr#5
  2. 1LIPAN LAW (USA) (1)KEIBER J. COA · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2RUMINT (USA) (3)REYLU GUTIERREZ · MICHAEL S. FERRARO · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3LAST GLORY (USA) (4)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · RALPH D'ALESSANDRO · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4OUR PREFERRED PAL (USA) (2)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · CHRIS J. ENGLEHART · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5RUBYS MISSION (USA) (5)OLAF HERNANDEZ · LUIS GUTIERREZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 6MOONTOWN (USA) (6)JOEL CRUZ · JONATHAN B. BUCKLEY · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 8 · Finger Lakes · 9 runners

Usable
8¼f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
9The pickSUCCESSFUL AGENDA (USA)pool 29% · model 24.4% · CHRISTOPHER ELLIOTT
2Next bestMAIZE LOVED LAFFY (USA)pool 8% · model 10.9% · EMANUEL DE DIEGO

SUCCESSFUL AGENDA (USA) (9) is the pick: model 24% against a 29% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge -4.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MAIZE LOVED LAFFY (USA) (2) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 9SUCCESSFUL AGENDA (USA)CHRISTOPHER ELLIOTT · JOE SHARP · draw 9 · pool 29% · market #1-4.6#1
  2. 2MAIZE LOVED LAFFY (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · JOSEPH E. MARINO · draw 2 · pool 8% · market #2+2.9#5
  3. 5VOLAMO (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · JAMES S. ACQUILANO · draw 5 · pool 2% · market #3+3.3#6
  4. 7BOUNTY KILLAH (USA)NAZARIO ALVARADO · ILMAR LOAIZA · draw 7 · pool 1% · market #4+2.8#7
  5. 6STELLA BROWN (USA)JACQUELINE A. DAVIS · EDUARDO MAVER, JR. · draw 6 · pool 1% · market #5+1.2#9
  6. 1WAYWARD QUEEN (USA) (2)JOSE VENTURA · ASSAF RONEN · draw 1 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 3LUCKY AND GORGEOUS (USA) (3)STEVEN FRET · JERMAINE GIBBS · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 4FLYING PHOEBE (USA) (1)JOEL CRUZ · JAMES S. ACQUILANO · draw 4 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 8OUTTA THE CLOUD (USA) (4)BEN S. JOSEPH · VICTOR DEAN III · draw 8 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99

Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
1The pickUNBRIDLED VALOR (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 9.6% · HANNAH LEAHEY
5Next bestCOUNT THE CASH (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 1% · model 2.7% · ALEXANDER CRISPIN

UNBRIDLED VALOR (USA) (Koşmaz) (1) is the pick: model 10% against a 0% pool share, 12 runs of US form on file, edge +9.6 points.

The pool makes COUNT THE CASH (USA) (Koşmaz) (5) favourite at 1%; the model rates it 3%, so we overturn the favourite.

COUNT THE CASH (USA) (Koşmaz) (5) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1UNBRIDLED VALOR (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · ISRAEL J. GARCIA · draw 1 · pool — · market #2scr#3
  2. 5COUNT THE CASH (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · TRACEY J. WISNER · draw 5 · pool 1% · market #1scr#8
  3. 8EL PAYASITO (USA) (1)VICTOR LARA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 8 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 6CRAZY LEGS MIKE (USA) (4)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 6 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 3GOD AND LUCK (USA) (6)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · CHAZ RECHY · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 4BOSS JUSTICE (USA) (3)ANDRES P. ULLOA · KENIA HERNANDEZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 2PRAY FOR VICTORY (USA) (2)IRVING MONCADA · KENIA HERNANDEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 7PRACTICAL JUSTICE (USA) (5)ALBERTO BURGOS · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 4 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 13 runners

NO POOL YET
5f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 13 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 11CE LA VI CHARLI (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 11 · pool — · market #1scr#1
  2. 8CLICK (USA)RAFAEL MOJICA, JR. · ISMAEL BAHENA · draw 8 · pool — · market #2scr#13
  3. 5INFLAMMABELLE (USA) (5)ALEX ACHARD · EMMA JIMENEZ SANCHEZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 2DON'T CROSS ALEXIS (USA) (3)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 10FRANKEL BABY (USA) (2)ORLANDO MOJICA · BRITTANY A. VANDEN BERG · draw 10 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 9RYE SMILE (USA) (7)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · JOSE ORANTES · draw 9 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 4EYE SHADOW (USA) (9)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · JOHN HARAN · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 3FONDRE (USA) (8)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · DAVID R. REID · draw 3 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 12SUNNY'S FLAME (USA) (1)ALBERTO BURGOS · GENNADI DOROCHENKO · draw 12 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 1DIFFERENTLY (USA) (6)EDGAR MORALES · BENTLEY COMBS · draw 1 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 6ZOOMAHA (USA) (11)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · TERRY VAUGHN · draw 6 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 7BOIS BLANC (USA) (4)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · JUSTIN WOJCZYNSKI · draw 7 · pool — · market #12—#99
  13. 13FRANGO ELECTRICO (USA) (10)J.J. MEZA · ISMAEL BAHENA · draw 13 · pool — · market #13—#99

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1FAT CHANCE (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#2
  2. 2PATTY VAN TWINKLE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 2 · pool — · market #2scr#3
  3. 9NIXON'S TIME (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 9 · pool — · market #3scr#4
  4. 4SHANGHAI EXPRESS (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · JOHN HARAN · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#6
  5. 7WINDY BAY (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · CHRIS A. HARTMAN · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#7
  6. 3SWEET SCORECARD (USA) (2)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6ARRASOU (USA) (1)ALBERTO BURGOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 5PICKLE SHOES (USA) (3)EVIN A. ROMAN · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 8MOMBAYLA (USA) (4)J.J. MEZA · ISMAEL BAHENA · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3JOGGER (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#4
  2. 10MARTINE (USA)VICTOR LARA · JOHN C. SCHULTZ · draw 10 · pool — · market #2—#6
  3. 6SWEET SAHARA (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · TERRY VAUGHN · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#7
  4. 8APPLE BISCUIT (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 8 · pool — · market #4—#8
  5. 5WHAT YOU WISHED (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#9
  6. 1WHAKAARI (USA) (2)ALBERTO BURGOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 2ATHENAEUM (USA) (1)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · JOHN L. LANGEMEIER · draw 2 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 9BURN BRIGHTLY (USA) (5)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 9 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 7SUCCY'S SONG (USA) (4)SANTO SANJUR · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 7 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 4COVER ART (USA) (3)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 4 · pool — · market #10—#99

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
7The pickFOREVER HOPE (USA)pool 27% · model 23.9% · MITCHELL MURRILL
2Next bestINDY LAKE (USA)pool 19% · model 17.5% · HANNAH LEAHEY
8At a priceHAPPIEST MOMENT (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 7.9% · ALEXANDER CRISPIN

FOREVER HOPE (USA) (7) is the pick: model 24% against a 27% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge -3.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

INDY LAKE (USA) (2) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, HAPPIEST MOMENT (USA) (Koşmaz) (8) carries +7.9 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7FOREVER HOPE (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 7 · pool 27% · market #1-3.1#1
  2. 2INDY LAKE (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · MIGUEL ANGEL SILVA · draw 2 · pool 19% · market #2-1.5#2
  3. 6MEGA WICH (USA)MICAH MEEKS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 6 · pool 17% · market #3-2.7#3
  4. 5AUMOE (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · DAWN A. FONTENOT · draw 5 · pool 14% · market #4-1.4#4
  5. 1CHISEL (USA)IRVING MONCADA · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 1 · pool 12% · market #5-0.4#5
  6. 8HAPPIEST MOMENT (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 8 · pool — · market #9scr#6
  7. 3LITTLE ROCK JACK (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 3 · pool 6% · market #6+0.7#7
  8. 4PENITENT (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 4 · pool 4% · market #7+0.0#8
  9. 9ROCKSTAR JUSTICE (USA)VICTOR LARA · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 9 · pool 1% · market #8+0.4#9

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 16 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 13 of 16 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
3The pickSEA RIDE (USA)pool 31% · model 21.4% · SANTO SANJUR
5Next bestHAZIEL (USA)pool 18% · model 13.7% · ALEX ACHARD
16At a priceJABOSS (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 6.0% · JOSEPH D. RAMOS

SEA RIDE (USA) (3) is the pick: model 21% against a 31% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -9.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

HAZIEL (USA) (5) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, JABOSS (USA) (Koşmaz) (16) carries +6.0 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3SEA RIDE (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANNA NAVARRETE · draw 3 · pool 31% · market #1-9.9#1
  2. 5HAZIEL (USA)ALEX ACHARD · JOHN L. LANGEMEIER · draw 5 · pool 18% · market #2-4.5#2
  3. 4OAK ALLEY (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · RAYMOND J. PAQUETTE III · draw 4 · pool 13% · market #3-3.3#3
  4. 8CENTEYA (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · LORI HENDRICKSON · draw 8 · pool 8% · market #5-0.0#4
  5. 11VOLUNTOLD (USA)DECLAN CANNON · TROY NEWTON · draw 11 · pool 10% · market #4-3.6#5
  6. 16JABOSS (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · D. WHITWORTH BECKMAN · draw 16 · pool — · market #13scr#6
  7. 6MORE SWEETS (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · BRIAN WALTZ · draw 6 · pool 5% · market #6+0.6#7
  8. 15CANDLE'S LEGACY (USA)DYLAN MACHADO · WILLIAM D. COWANS · draw 15 · pool — · market #14scr#8
  9. 2TAP BONNET (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #15scr#9
  10. 14UNION EMPRESS (USA)DANNY SHEEHY · JIMMY CORRIGAN · draw 14 · pool — · market #16scr#10
  11. 7PRINCESS BUTTERCUP (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · SARAH E. SHAFFER · draw 7 · pool 4% · market #7-0.3#11
  12. 10DENISE SAYS NO (USA)SUMMER PAULY · ED MOGER, JR. · draw 10 · pool 3% · market #8+0.3#12
  13. 13VEE'S REASON (USA)MIA NICHOLLS · MATT FRAZIER · draw 13 · pool 3% · market #9-0.0#13
  14. 9STRIFE (USA)ANGEL SERPA · FELIPE SALAS · draw 9 · pool 2% · market #10+0.2#14
  15. 12UNBRIDLED SABBATH (USA)VICTOR LARA · JOHN HARAN · draw 12 · pool 1% · market #11+0.4#15
  16. 1DREAMING WHY (USA)IRVING MONCADA · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 1 · pool 1% · market #12+0.2#16

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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