Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolispool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 7SILVERTOWN (USA) (1)+0.00% · 0%
  2. 2JOLLY JUSTICE (USA) (4)+0.00% · 0%
  3. 1KEEN ICE SIGHT (USA) (3)+0.00% · 0%
  4. 4DON'T LOOK BACK (USA) (2)+0.00% · 0%
  5. 3REIMAGINE (USA) (6)+0.00% · 0%
  6. 6FASTA LAVISTA BABY (USA) (5)+0.00% · 0%
WEST MAPLE (USA) (Koşmaz) is the pick: model 13% against a 0% pool share · verdict ↓

Horseshoe Indianapolis picks — Wed 21 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →

6 races today · 27 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Wed 21 Oct 2026 · 1 track2 usable of 6 races · model overturns the favourite in 1Written Wed 21 Oct 2026, 17:45 ET · permalink

2 of 6 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Wed 21 Oct 2026

6 races across Horseshoe Indianapolis. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 6 runners

Thin form
6f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
2The pickSAN VALENTINA (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 10% · model 12.0% · MICAH MEEKS
1Next bestONE THIRSTY LOVER (USA) (1)pool 0% · model 0.0% · ANDRES P. ULLOA

SAN VALENTINA (USA) (Koşmaz) (2) is the pick: model 12% against a 10% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +2.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

ONE THIRSTY LOVER (USA) (1) (1) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2SAN VALENTINA (USA)MICAH MEEKS · MIGUEL ANGEL SILVA · draw 2 · pool 10% · market #1scr#3
  2. 1ONE THIRSTY LOVER (USA) (1)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 6SOMPATRA (USA) (5)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 6 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 5TAPIT CHARM (USA) (2)AMIR MENDOZA · TERRY VAUGHN · draw 5 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 3LUNAR SKY (USA) (4)HANNAH LEAHEY · DARLENE GREEN · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 4LOTTA CHARM (USA) (3)JOSE RIQUELME · ANDREW C. BROWN · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99

Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 7 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
5The pickWEST MAPLE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 13.4% · ALBERTO BURGOS
7Next bestSILVERTOWN (USA) (1)pool 0% · model 0.0% · VICTOR LARA

WEST MAPLE (USA) (Koşmaz) (5) is the pick: model 13% against a 0% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge +13.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SILVERTOWN (USA) (1) (7) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5WEST MAPLE (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 5 · pool — · market #1scr#5
  2. 7SILVERTOWN (USA) (1)VICTOR LARA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 7 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2JOLLY JUSTICE (USA) (4)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 1KEEN ICE SIGHT (USA) (3)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · RAYMOND J. PAQUETTE III · draw 1 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4DON'T LOOK BACK (USA) (2)SANTO SANJUR · ROGELIO LABRA · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 3REIMAGINE (USA) (6)MITCHELL MURRILL · DANIEL SIMPSON · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 6FASTA LAVISTA BABY (USA) (5)MIA NICHOLLS · PAUL H. BROWN, JR. · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 0 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5BERMUDA (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · BRAD H. COX · draw 5 · pool — · market #1scr#1
  2. 7START THE DISCO (USA) (1)ALEX ACHARD · RILEY MOTT · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 6QUALITY RED (USA) (5)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · BRAD H. COX · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 1RED PACK'S CANDY (USA) (6)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · BOBBY C. BARNETT · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 2SLADE (USA) (2)ALBERTO BURGOS · BRENDAN P. WALSH · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 4TOLL BOOTH WILLY (USA) (3)EVIN A. ROMAN · JEFFREY L. GREENHILL · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 3GOLD ON BLACK (USA) (4)AMIR MENDOZA · RILEY MOTT · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 12 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 12ST. ARMANDS KEY (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · MICHAEL J. MAKER · draw 12 · pool — · market #1scr#2
  2. 10WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK (USA)VICTOR LARA · DINO DIZEO · draw 10 · pool — · market #2scr#5
  3. 1KING OF KENTUCKY (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · CLAUDE L. BROWNFIELD III · draw 1 · pool — · market #3scr#6
  4. 11POOL GUY (USA)IRVING MONCADA · TOMMY HUMPHRIES · draw 11 · pool — · market #4scr#8
  5. 9QUOKKA (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · CIRILO GOROSTIETA · draw 9 · pool — · market #5—#9
  6. 2MOOGIE SON (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · AGUSTIN GONZALEZ, JR. · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#11
  7. 8MUNNY TOWN (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · YONI R. ORANTES · draw 8 · pool — · market #7scr#12
  8. 5BAYTOWN PARFAIT (USA) (2)ORLANDO MOJICA · MICHAEL A. TOMLINSON · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 7ON PALM SUNDAY (USA) (5)ALEX ACHARD · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 7 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 6SHANKAR (USA) (1)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · TRACEY J. WISNER · draw 6 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 4JAILHOUSE JUSTICE (USA) (4)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 3JUSTHAPPYTOBEHERE (USA) (3)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 3 · pool — · market #12—#99

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 15 runners

Thin form
8f Turf · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 4 of 15 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
6The pickVERITE (USA)pool 10% · model 9.2% · ALEX ACHARD
4Next bestSELAH (USA)pool 11% · model 8.4% · LUIS FUENMAYOR
14At a pricePRINCESS CHANTY (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 5.2% · ALBERTO BURGOS

VERITE (USA) (6) is the pick: model 9% against a 10% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -0.8 points.

The pool makes SELAH (USA) (4) favourite at 11%; the model rates it 8%, so we overturn the favourite.

SELAH (USA) (4) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

For something at a price, PRINCESS CHANTY (USA) (Koşmaz) (14) carries +5.2 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6VERITE (USA)ALEX ACHARD · WILLIAM WALDEN · draw 6 · pool 10% · market #3-0.8#3
  2. 4SELAH (USA)LUIS FUENMAYOR · JOSE M. CAMEJO · draw 4 · pool 11% · market #1-2.6#4
  3. 8SEISMIC GIRL (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · KELSEY DANNER · draw 8 · pool 11% · market #2-3.5#5
  4. 14PRINCESS CHANTY (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · CARLOS MUNOZ · draw 14 · pool — · market #7scr#7
  5. 1FURIOUS ANGEL (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · BRIAN WALTZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #8scr#8
  6. 3SHIMMERING JADE (USA)JOSE RIQUELME · NIK G. GOODWIN · draw 3 · pool — · market #9scr#10
  7. 15ALL OVER IT (USA)LUIS FUENMAYOR · CARLOS MUNOZ · draw 15 · pool — · market #10scr#11
  8. 13MAHINA NIGHTS (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RODOLPHE BRISSET · draw 13 · pool 5% · market #4-2.9#13
  9. 5LADY MAXIMUM (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · SERGIO DON JUAN · draw 5 · pool 5% · market #5-3.2#14
  10. 2BEETWOOD MAC (USA)SUMMER PAULY · ETHAN W. WEST · draw 2 · pool 4% · market #6-2.5#15
  11. 12DART TO NABERS (USA) (5)AMIR MENDOZA · JOE SHARP · draw 12 · pool — · market #11+0.0#99
  12. 7TODAY ISA GIFT (USA) (1)JAMES GRAHAM · J. KEITH DESORMEAUX · draw 7 · pool — · market #12+0.0#99
  13. 11PASSAGE DU DESIR (USA) (4)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · BRAD H. COX · draw 11 · pool — · market #13+0.0#99
  14. 10NEW MADRID (USA) (2)IRVING MONCADA · THOMAS DRURY, JR. · draw 10 · pool — · market #14+0.0#99
  15. 9AISLE NINE (USA) (3)ALBERTO BURGOS · BRENDAN P. WALSH · draw 9 · pool — · market #15+0.0#99

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
9The pickTURBO LADY (USA)pool 33% · model 36.9% · AMIR MENDOZA
5Next bestWOSIE'S PROMISE (USA)pool 19% · model 15.6% · SANTO SANJUR

TURBO LADY (USA) (9) is the pick: model 37% against a 33% pool share, 9 runs of US form on file, edge +3.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

WOSIE'S PROMISE (USA) (5) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 9TURBO LADY (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 9 · pool 33% · market #1+3.9#1
  2. 5WOSIE'S PROMISE (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 5 · pool 19% · market #2-3.4#2
  3. 6IT'STHEONLYWAYTOGO (USA)VICTOR LARA · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 6 · pool 12% · market #3-1.2#3
  4. 3SARAH'S SMILES (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 3 · pool 9% · market #4+0.7#4
  5. 8APPEAZING (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · JOHN HARAN · draw 8 · pool 8% · market #5+0.2#5
  6. 7HONEY'S ON FIRE (USA)ALEX ACHARD · BONNIE PITTMAN · draw 7 · pool 8% · market #6-0.1#6
  7. 1JUSTICEONTHERAIL (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 1 · pool 6% · market #7-0.2#7
  8. 2TIMELESS JUSTICE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · CHAZ RECHY · draw 2 · pool 3% · market #8+0.4#8
  9. 4KITTEN'S SONG (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · DARLENE GREEN · draw 4 · pool 2% · market #9-0.3#9

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Keeneland (1.18 runs/horse) · Belmont Park (1.14 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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