Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolispool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 1MOVIN OUT (USA) (3)+0.00% · 0%
  2. 7GRAY MIKE (USA) (6)+0.00% · 0%
  3. 5LOVE POTION (USA) (5)+0.00% · 0%
  4. 4CHABELO (USA) (1)+0.00% · 0%
  5. 8COAXED (USA) (2)+0.00% · 0%
  6. 2SIG FORTY FIVE (USA) (7)+0.00% · 0%
  7. 6RECOMPUTING (USA) (4)+0.00% · 0%
RUNAWAY MIKE (USA) (Koşmaz) is the pick: model 8% against a 0% pool share · verdict ↓

Horseshoe Indianapolis picks — Thu 22 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →

7 races today · 28 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 1 track3 usable of 7 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Thu 22 Oct 2026, 17:45 ET · permalink

4 of 7 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Thu 22 Oct 2026

7 races across Horseshoe Indianapolis. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
3The pickRUNAWAY MIKE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 8.3% · CARLOS MONTALVO
1Next bestMOVIN OUT (USA) (3)pool 0% · model 0.0% · JOSEPH M. ROMERO

RUNAWAY MIKE (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) is the pick: model 8% against a 0% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +8.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MOVIN OUT (USA) (3) (1) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3RUNAWAY MIKE (USA)CARLOS MONTALVO · CARLOS RAMIREZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #1scr#5
  2. 1MOVIN OUT (USA) (3)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 7GRAY MIKE (USA) (6)JOSHUA MORALES · CARLOS RAMIREZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 5LOVE POTION (USA) (5)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · EDWARD K. ROGGENKAMP III · draw 5 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4CHABELO (USA) (1)MICAH MEEKS · MIGUEL ANGEL SILVA · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 8COAXED (USA) (2)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 8 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 2SIG FORTY FIVE (USA) (7)SANTO SANJUR · RAUL DE LA MORA · draw 2 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 6RECOMPUTING (USA) (4)ANDRES P. ULLOA · JONATHAN NANCE · draw 6 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 3 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 9DEWEY OXBURGER (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 9 · pool — · market #1scr#9
  2. 5GREY ECLIPSE (USA) (3)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 5 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 8GOVERNOR RON (USA) (1)ALEX ACHARD · GENEVIEVE LONDONO · draw 8 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 10VIENNA CHARM (USA) (2)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · BRIAN WALTZ · draw 10 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4READY TO SEIZE (USA) (3)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 3MY LUNAR CHARM (USA) (5)IRVING MONCADA · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6BARCA BILLY (USA) (7)SANTO SANJUR · ROBERT POMPELL · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 1JUNKYARD JUSTICE (USA) (8)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · AGUSTIN GONZALEZ, JR. · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 2LOOKING GOOD LEWIS (USA) (9)HANNAH LEAHEY · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 2 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 7FLOWERED (USA) (6)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 7 · pool — · market #10—#99

Race 4 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3ALDER (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · DAVID JACOBSON · draw 3 · pool — · market #1scr#4
  2. 2BERGEN (USA)DANILO GRISALES RAVE · WILLIAM P. MCCALL III · draw 2 · pool — · market #2scr#7
  3. 1DELTA TAU CHI (USA) (2)ALBERTO BURGOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 6SIR GALLIVANT (USA) (3)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4DRAKE'S PASSAGE (USA) (4)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · DAVID JACOBSON · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 7TIZ AUTHORITY (USA) (1)MITCHELL MURRILL · CHRIS A. HARTMAN · draw 7 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 5BOHEMIAN BO (USA) (5)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · SARAH E. SHAFFER · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Claiming Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 1 of 12 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4MY BLUE HEAVEN (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · ANNA M. MEAH · draw 4 · pool — · market #1scr#8
  2. 10TATIANA (USA) (6)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · BRAD H. COX · draw 10 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 1RAZOR ROCKETTE (USA) (1)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · BRAD H. COX · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 9COLD JUSTICE (USA) (3)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RODOLPHE BRISSET · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 3JUST DANCE (USA) (2)MITCHELL MURRILL · EDDIE KENNEALLY · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 2MADAM JOKER (USA) (11)ALBIN JIMENEZ · CHRISTOPHER DAVIS · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7LUMINISTIC (USA) (7)CESAR ORANTES · RILEY MOTT · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 5HAVE HOPE (USA) (5)DECLAN CANNON · JOE SHARP · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 12MOONLIGHT LIL LUCE (USA) (10)ALEX ACHARD · RILEY MOTT · draw 12 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 11TUMBLING (USA) (9)BEN CURTIS · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 11 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 8SIMULTANEOUS (USA) (8)SANTO SANJUR · WILLIAM I. MOTT · draw 8 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 6REAL LADY (USA) (4)VICTOR R. CARRASCO · GEORGE R. ARNOLD II · draw 6 · pool — · market #12—#99

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5WHAT ABOUT NOW (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 7GIO'S BABY GIRL (USA)ALEX ACHARD · RON D. HERRELL · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#5
  3. 8DREAMING GIRL (USA)MICAH MEEKS · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 8 · pool — · market #3—#8
  4. 9THAT'SMYDAUGHTER (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · RAYMOND J. PAQUETTE III · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#9
  5. 6THEORETICALLY (USA) (1)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 4MAXIMUM SPIRIT (USA) (4)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 1PETER'S DREAM (USA) (5)VICTOR LARA · JOHN HARAN · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 3YOTOWIN (USA) (3)SANTO SANJUR · ROGELIO LABRA · draw 3 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 2SORRY NOT SORRY (USA) (2)JOSEPH D RAMOS · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 2 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
8The pickSHIESTY TO CHASE (USA)pool 15% · model 13.4% · ALEXANDER CRISPIN
6Next bestMAGNUS GOLD (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 8.2% · EVIN A. ROMAN

SHIESTY TO CHASE (USA) (8) is the pick: model 13% against a 15% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge -1.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MAGNUS GOLD (USA) (Koşmaz) (6) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 8SHIESTY TO CHASE (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · MICHAEL WEAVER · draw 8 · pool 15% · market #1-1.6#4
  2. 6MAGNUS GOLD (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 6 · pool — · market #5scr#6
  3. 1FOR MAMA (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · DAWN A. FONTENOT · draw 1 · pool 9% · market #2-1.0#7
  4. 5HENRY THE HANK (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · JONATHAN NANCE · draw 5 · pool 4% · market #3-0.3#9
  5. 7HE B READY (USA)IRVING MONCADA · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 7 · pool 2% · market #4-0.6#10
  6. 4WHICH SIDE R U ON (USA) (2)SANTO SANJUR · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 9MACKADOO (USA) (1)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · DANIEL SIMPSON · draw 9 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 10FOREVER GREEDY (USA) (3)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 10 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 3ADIOS ASHWOOD (USA) (4)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · RENE CAZARES, JR. · draw 3 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99
  10. 2POSITIVE CHANGE (USA) (5)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · JULIE SEBASTIAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #10+0.0#99

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
9The pickSIR BAHJY (USA)pool 46% · model 26.8% · MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR.
7Next bestGAZA HEROICO (CHI)pool 17% · model 16.8% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
3At a pricePALM TREE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 8.9% · RODNEY A. PRESCOTT

SIR BAHJY (USA) (9) is the pick: model 27% against a 46% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge -19.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

GAZA HEROICO (CHI) (7) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, PALM TREE (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) carries +8.9 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 9SIR BAHJY (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · GENARO GARCIA · draw 9 · pool 46% · market #1-19.7#1
  2. 7GAZA HEROICO (CHI)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · BRAD H. COX · draw 7 · pool 17% · market #3-0.4#2
  3. 8FOUNTAIN RUN (USA)JANE ELLIOTT · ANNA M. MEAH · draw 8 · pool 24% · market #2-10.8#3
  4. 3PALM TREE (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 3 · pool — · market #7scr#4
  5. 10JAZZOLE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 10 · pool — · market #8scr#5
  6. 2SOCO KID (USA)TRAVIS WALES · JAMES M. WATKINS · draw 2 · pool — · market #9scr#6
  7. 5KING OF KENTUCKY (USA)ALBIN JIMENEZ · CLAUDE L. BROWNFIELD III · draw 5 · pool — · market #10scr#7
  8. 6GLOBAL QUOTE (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 6 · pool 7% · market #4-0.6#8
  9. 4TUYMANS (BRZ)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · PAULO H. LOBO · draw 4 · pool 3% · market #5-0.3#9
  10. 1S S QUALITY (USA)CARLOS JIMENEZ · ROBERT MEDINA · draw 1 · pool 2% · market #6-0.5#10

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Keeneland (1.18 runs/horse) · Belmont Park (1.16 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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