Race 2 · Gulfstream Parkpool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 1STELLA BIONDA (USA) (3)+0.00% · 0%
  2. 2SUNROOF (USA) (4)+0.00% · 0%
  3. 3GOAL (USA) (6)+0.00% · 0%
  4. 4MAGNETIC BEACH (USA) (2)+0.00% · 0%
  5. 5READING TIME (USA) (5)+0.00% · 0%
  6. 6GETAHOLDAYOURSELF (USA) (1)+0.00% · 0%
JUNEGENAI (USA) (Koşmaz) is the pick: model 11% against a 0% pool share · verdict ↓

Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park picks — Fri 23 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →

11 races today · 29 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 2 tracks4 usable of 11 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Fri 23 Oct 2026, 19:15 ET · permalink

5 of 11 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Fri 23 Oct 2026

11 races across Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 2 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
7The pickJUNEGENAI (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 11.4% · LEONEL REYES
1Next bestSTELLA BIONDA (USA) (3)pool 0% · model 0.0% · JOSE E. MORELOS

JUNEGENAI (USA) (Koşmaz) (7) is the pick: model 11% against a 0% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge +11.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

STELLA BIONDA (USA) (3) (1) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7JUNEGENAI (USA)LEONEL REYES · GARRETT W. ARSCOTT · draw 7 · pool — · market #1scr#5
  2. 1STELLA BIONDA (USA) (3)JOSE E. MORELOS · JOSE M. CASTRO · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2SUNROOF (USA) (4)CARLOS MARTINEZ · MILTON NUNEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3GOAL (USA) (6)SONNY LEON · MARK E. CASSE · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4MAGNETIC BEACH (USA) (2)JONATHAN SANTOS · FRANK J. REGALBUTO · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5READING TIME (USA) (5)EDWIN GONZALEZ · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 6GETAHOLDAYOURSELF (USA) (1)DIEGO A. HERRERA · DAVID FAWKES · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 3 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 0 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2THE BUFFER WAY (USA)NIK JUAREZ · BEAU J. CHAPMAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 1DOROTHY (USA) (3)MARCOS MENESES · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 3ESTHER'S FAVOR (USA) (5)ANTHONY THOMAS · HERBERT MILLER · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 4CATHEDRAL SUN (USA) (2)DIEGO A. HERRERA · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5DOUBLE MAGIC (USA) (1)EDGAR PEREZ · LUIS M. RAMIREZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6AUNT ELUSIVE (USA) (6)JOSE E. MORELOS · JENA M. ANTONUCCI · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7DELTA QUEEN (USA) (4)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · BEAU J. CHAPMAN · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 4 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 3 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5PARTY MIX (USA)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · NOLAN RAMSEY · draw 5 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 2BLINKSTER (USA)J.G. TORREALBA · PATRICK L. BIANCONE · draw 2 · pool — · market #2scr#4
  3. 9DOWNFORCE (USA)NIK JUAREZ · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 9 · pool — · market #3scr#7
  4. 1VITTORIA EVA (USA) (4)JONATHAN OCASIO · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 3CYNSTER (USA) (5)DIEGO A. HERRERA · BEAU J. CHAPMAN · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 4GODDESS OF BEAUTY (USA) (3)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6ROADSTERELLA (USA) (1)MARCOS MENESES · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 7JOST A CHANCE YADI (USA) (6)JONATHAN SANTOS · FRANK J. REGALBUTO · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 8ARMY SALUTE (USA) (2)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 6 · Gulfstream Park · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5DITCHED (USA)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 5 · pool — · market #1scr#4
  2. 4CLASSY LASS (USA)MARCOS MENESES · MARCUS J. VITALI · draw 4 · pool — · market #2scr#5
  3. 3GULFSTREAM MARY D (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · STEVEN DWOSKIN · draw 3 · pool — · market #3scr#7
  4. 2TIC TIC TIC BOOM (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · MONICA MCGOEY · draw 2 · pool — · market #4scr#8
  5. 1NORTH END LADY (USA) (4)DIEGO A. HERRERA · DAVID FAWKES · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6SHOW OFF (USA) (1)EDWIN GONZALEZ · DAVID FAWKES · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7EMPRESS ELLIE (USA) (3)ANTHONY THOMAS · LARRY J. STERLING, JR. · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8LA CANTERA (IRE) (2)LEONEL REYES · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 7 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
7f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
6The pickCUDDLE THE KITTEN (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 10.5% · RENZO ROJAS
1Next bestWESTERN SHAFT (USA) (4)pool 0% · model 0.0% · DIEGO A. HERRERA

CUDDLE THE KITTEN (USA) (Koşmaz) (6) is the pick: model 10% against a 0% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge +10.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

WESTERN SHAFT (USA) (4) (1) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6CUDDLE THE KITTEN (USA)RENZO ROJAS · TAREQ MOUBARAK · draw 6 · pool — · market #1scr#5
  2. 1WESTERN SHAFT (USA) (4)DIEGO A. HERRERA · DANIEL C. HURTAK · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2ROGER THAT DANA (USA) (2)EDGAR PEREZ · ANTONIO SANO · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3OTHER LEVEL (USA) (5)J.G. TORREALBA · MARCIAL CORNEJO · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4TEDDY BEAR (USA) (3)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5HENDRICKSON (USA) (6)JONATHAN SANTOS · MARK EAGAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7JIMBO BAILEY (USA) (1)JONATHAN OCASIO · SAL SANTORO · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 8 · Gulfstream Park · 11 runners

Usable
Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 11 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
10The pickCITY MINUTE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 9.8% · MICAH J. HUSBANDS
8Next bestTAKE DAT (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 5.6% · JONATHAN OCASIO

CITY MINUTE (USA) (Koşmaz) (10) is the pick: model 10% against a 0% pool share, 8 runs of US form on file, edge +9.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

TAKE DAT (USA) (Koşmaz) (8) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 10CITY MINUTE (USA)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 10 · pool — · market #1scr#4
  2. 8TAKE DAT (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · GERALD S. BENNETT · draw 8 · pool — · market #2scr#8
  3. 1OLIVIA VALENTINA (USA) (7)CARLOS MARTINEZ · CARLOS LUIS PEREZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 2MOTOWN DIVA (USA) (1)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 3PRECIOUS MEDLEY (USA) (4)LEONEL REYES · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 4LONDON (USA) (5)DIEGO A. HERRERA · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 5STARSHIP MELODY (USA) (2)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 6LITTLE TORCH (USA) (3)EDGAR PEREZ · JOSEPH C. CATANESE III · draw 6 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 7NANCY'S SHAWL (USA) (8)SONNY LEON · DAVID VAN WINKLE · draw 7 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99
  10. 9SPARKLING STAR (PER) (9)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 9 · pool — · market #10+0.0#99
  11. 11INSOLENTA (USA) (6)RASHEED HUGHES · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 11 · pool — · market #11+0.0#99

Race 2 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

Thin form
8f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 1 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
3The pickFUMO GRIGIO (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 3% · model 6.0% · SCRATCHED
4Next bestJOHNNY B (USA) (1)pool 0% · model 0.0% · TYLER BAZE

FUMO GRIGIO (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) is the pick: model 6% against a 3% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +3.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

JOHNNY B (USA) (1) (4) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3FUMO GRIGIO (USA)SCRATCHED · draw 98 · pool 3% · market #1scr#5
  2. 4JOHNNY B (USA) (1)TYLER BAZE · IAN KRULJAC · draw 3 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2BIG TIME COACH (USA) (5)JOEL ROSARIO · RYAN HANSON · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 5INCA (USA) (3)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · RUBEN GOMEZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 1ROMANTICON (USA) (2)CRISTOBAL HERRERA · JORGE PERIBAN · draw 1 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6SPIDER JOHN (USA) (4)ADRIAN ESCOBEDO · ALFREDO P. MARQUEZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99

Race 5 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

NO POOL YET
6½f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 6 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5PRINCESS SNOW (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · ANDY MATHIS · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#2
  2. 6CAMILA CATALINA (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · ROBERT B. HESS, JR. · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#3
  3. 1WINIKA (USA) (4)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · JEFF MULLINS · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 2HEY LIL LADY (USA) (1)ARMANDO AYUSO · ROBERT B. HESS, JR. · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4LLAMP (USA) (3)KYLE FREY · MICK RUIS, SR. · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 3EMPRESS MATILDA (GB) (2)ADRIAN ESCOBEDO · RYAN HANSON · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#99

Race 6 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1FARMER TOM (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · ANDY MATHIS · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#5
  2. 4NINETEENTH HOLE (USA)PEDRO FLORES · JOSE RAUDALES · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#6
  3. 5MR. TARIFF (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · JEFF BONDE · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#7
  4. 8MAXIMUM GLADIATOR (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · GENARO VALLEJO · draw 8 · pool — · market #4—#8
  5. 6HURRICANE WAY (USA) (4)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · MARK RHEINFORD · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 3REDIAL (USA) (3)ARMANDO AYUSO · IAN KRULJAC · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7GAIRLOCH (USA) (2)JOEL ROSARIO · LEONARD POWELL · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 2HOOSICK FALLS (USA) (1)KYLE FREY · JEFF MULLINS · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 7 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

Thin form
5½f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
2The pickHAYLEY AMBER (USA)pool 11% · model 10.8% · EDGAR PAYERAS
7Next bestGODBLESS HER (USA)pool 10% · model 9.7% · EDWIN A. MALDONADO

HAYLEY AMBER (USA) (2) is the pick: model 11% against a 11% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +0.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

GODBLESS HER (USA) (7) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2HAYLEY AMBER (USA)EDGAR PAYERAS · SALLY P. RIVERA · draw 2 · pool 11% · market #1+0.0#4
  2. 7GODBLESS HER (USA)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 7 · pool 10% · market #2-0.1#5
  3. 8THIRST FOR FAITH (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 8 · pool 9% · market #3-1.9#7
  4. 1QUICK SIP (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 1 · pool 4% · market #4-1.4#8
  5. 6QUEEN OF BANTRY (USA) (3)CRISTOBAL HERRERA · ALBERTO RUVALCABA · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 4ADIA (USA) (1)WELFIN R. ORANTES · RYAN HANSON · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 5MUSTANG KNICKY (USA) (4)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 3IMNOTVANILLASKY (USA) (2)ABEL LEZCANO · MARK GLATT · draw 3 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 8 · Santa Anita Park · 9 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
4The pickMIZ CLUBCALI (USA)pool 37% · model 34.9% · TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA
7Next bestHARNEY LANE (USA)pool 18% · model 20.1% · RICARDO GONZALEZ

MIZ CLUBCALI (USA) (4) is the pick: model 35% against a 37% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge -2.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

HARNEY LANE (USA) (7) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4MIZ CLUBCALI (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · IAN KRULJAC · draw 4 · pool 37% · market #1-2.1#1
  2. 7HARNEY LANE (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · ANDY MATHIS · draw 7 · pool 18% · market #2+2.1#2
  3. 2BUDS N SUDS (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 2 · pool 11% · market #4-0.5#3
  4. 8RYTHEM GIRL (USA)KYLE FREY · BILL MCLEAN · draw 8 · pool 13% · market #3-2.6#4
  5. 6CHASING KAT (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · GARY STUTE · draw 6 · pool 8% · market #5-0.5#5
  6. 5ROMAN EMPRESS (USA)RICARDO S. RAMIREZ · JESUS J. URANGA · draw 5 · pool 5% · market #6+0.9#6
  7. 9GIANT KID (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · BILL MCLEAN · draw 9 · pool 3% · market #7+1.4#7
  8. 1ALIX (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · ROBERT B. HESS, JR. · draw 1 · pool 3% · market #8+0.6#8
  9. 3CHEEKY GAL (USA)EDGAR PAYERAS · ANTONIO FLORES · draw 3 · pool 2% · market #9+0.7#9

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Keeneland (1.19 runs/horse) · Belmont Park (1.17 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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