Race 7 · Santa Anita Parkpool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 2AMORITA (USA)+4.330% · 26%
  2. 8TAHINI (USA)+5.322% · 17%
  3. 6RETHINK (USA)-1.712% · 14%
  4. 3POP ART (USA)-2.510% · 12%
  5. 1ANTIFONA (FR)+0.08% · 8%
  6. 4PURA VIDA PRINCESA (USA)-1.36% · 7%
  7. 7SARATOGA SPECIAL (IRE)-1.65% · 7%
AMORITA (USA) is the pick: model 30% against a 26% pool share · verdict ↓

Santa Anita Park picks — Sat 24 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →

7 races today · 30 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 1 track4 usable of 7 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Sat 24 Oct 2026, 19:15 ET · permalink

3 of 7 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Sat 24 Oct 2026

7 races across Santa Anita Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Santa Anita Park · 9 runners

Usable
6f Turf · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
4The pickWITH LOVE (GB) (Koşmaz)pool 1% · model 2.7% · KYLE FREY
7Next bestMIDNIGHT COWGIRL (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 1% · model 1.9% · EDWIN A. MALDONADO

WITH LOVE (GB) (Koşmaz) (4) is the pick: model 3% against a 1% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge +1.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MIDNIGHT COWGIRL (USA) (Koşmaz) (7) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4WITH LOVE (GB)KYLE FREY · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 4 · pool 1% · market #1scr#8
  2. 7MIDNIGHT COWGIRL (USA)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · RYAN HANSON · draw 7 · pool 1% · market #2scr#9
  3. 8NOT A SINNER (GB) (2)UMBERTO RISPOLI · SIMON CALLAGHAN · draw 8 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 1WATCH OVER US (USA) (4)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · PETER MILLER · draw 1 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 9NIKOLINA (USA) (3)KAZUSHI KIMURA · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 9 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5ANDIAMO RAGAZZA (USA) (5)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · STEVE M. SHERMAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 2ANGELICA BAY (IRE) (7)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 2 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 3JANEY CREED (USA) (1)JULIEN R. LEPAROUX · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 3 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 6ELITE HEAT (GB) (6)ARMANDO AYUSO · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 6 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99

Race 2 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

Usable
7f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
1The pickMAD PURSUIT (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 1% · model 3.5% · EDWIN A. MALDONADO
4Next bestWOLF HILL (USA) (5)pool 0% · model 0.0% · KAZUSHI KIMURA

MAD PURSUIT (USA) (Koşmaz) (1) is the pick: model 4% against a 1% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge +2.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

WOLF HILL (USA) (5) (4) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1MAD PURSUIT (USA)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · RICHARD BALTAS · draw 1 · pool 1% · market #1scr#6
  2. 4WOLF HILL (USA) (5)KAZUSHI KIMURA · LEONARD POWELL · draw 4 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2SAUCIER (USA) (1)ARMANDO AYUSO · LEONARD POWELL · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3RABID RESPONSE (USA) (2)EDGAR PAYERAS · RICHARD BALTAS · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 5SLICE (USA) (4)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6MI FLECHA (USA) (3)ABEL LEZCANO · MARTIN VALENZUELA III · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99

Race 3 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 0 of 6 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2REAL AS IT GETS (USA)KYLE FREY · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 2 · pool — · market #1scr#6
  2. 1SEA'S NO JOKE (USA) (1)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · BOB BAFFERT · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 5MISS ATHENS (USA) (5)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · BOB BAFFERT · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 4GRADUATION DAY (USA) (3)UMBERTO RISPOLI · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 6LUXOR MAGIC (USA) (4)KAZUSHI KIMURA · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 3FOREWARN (USA) (2)MIKE E. SMITH · RICHARD E. MANDELLA · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#99

Race 5 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3DANZING DAISY (USA)TYLER BAZE · SEAN MCCARTHY · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#5
  2. 1NATIVE EMPRESS (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · TIM MCCANNA · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#6
  3. 8AWESOME OLGA (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · JAVIER JOSE SIERRA · draw 8 · pool — · market #3—#7
  4. 4WHITE STORM (USA)JULIEN R. LEPAROUX · LEONARD POWELL · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#8
  5. 2RISKY PLEASURE (USA) (2)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · CRAIG ANTHONY LEWIS · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6CLUBHOUSE DEB (USA) (4)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 5BARRA ROZA (USA) (3)ARMANDO AYUSO · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 7UNUSUALEXIS (USA) (1)KYLE FREY · ALEXIS BARBA · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 6 · Santa Anita Park · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 0 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7S Y SMOKESHOW (USA)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 7 · pool — · market #1—#3
  2. 2BILL N DEET (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · AGGIE ORDONEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #2scr#4
  3. 5TEENIE BIT TIPSY (USA)MANUEL AMERICANO · STEVEN MIYADI · draw 5 · pool — · market #3scr#5
  4. 4QUICK EXPRESS (USA) (1)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 1SAVVY TIGER (USA) (3)KAZUSHI KIMURA · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6RODEO RIVIERA (USA) (2)WELFIN R. ORANTES · RYAN HANSON · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 3VERONICA HERZ (USA) (4)ARMANDO AGUILAR · JEFF BONDE · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 7 · Santa Anita Park · 9 runners

Usable
6½f Turf · Stakes, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
2The pickAMORITA (USA)pool 26% · model 30.3% · KAZUSHI KIMURA
8Next bestTAHINI (USA)pool 17% · model 22.3% · UMBERTO RISPOLI

AMORITA (USA) (2) is the pick: model 30% against a 26% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +4.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

TAHINI (USA) (8) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2AMORITA (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · RICHARD E. MANDELLA · draw 2 · pool 26% · market #1+4.3#1
  2. 8TAHINI (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 8 · pool 17% · market #2+5.3#2
  3. 6RETHINK (USA)JULIEN R. LEPAROUX · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 6 · pool 14% · market #3-1.7#3
  4. 3POP ART (USA)MIKE E. SMITH · THOMAS F. PROCTOR · draw 3 · pool 12% · market #4-2.5#4
  5. 1ANTIFONA (FR)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · VLADIMIR CERIN · draw 1 · pool 8% · market #5+0.0#5
  6. 4PURA VIDA PRINCESA (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 4 · pool 7% · market #6-1.3#6
  7. 7SARATOGA SPECIAL (IRE)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · RICHARD BALTAS · draw 7 · pool 7% · market #7-1.6#7
  8. 9VISUALLY (USA)JAMIE P. SPENCER · PETER MILLER · draw 9 · pool 5% · market #8-1.3#8
  9. 5PRECISE TIMING (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 5 · pool 4% · market #9-1.3#9

Race 8 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
7The pickMARCH OF TIME (USA)pool 31% · model 30.3% · KAZUSHI KIMURA
4Next bestHOWIE'S LAW (USA)pool 20% · model 17.8% · EMISAEL JARAMILLO

MARCH OF TIME (USA) (7) is the pick: model 30% against a 31% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -1.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

HOWIE'S LAW (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7MARCH OF TIME (USA)KAZUSHI KIMURA · BOB BAFFERT · draw 7 · pool 31% · market #1-1.0#1
  2. 4HOWIE'S LAW (USA)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 4 · pool 20% · market #2-2.4#2
  3. 3SAN SABA (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · BOB BAFFERT · draw 3 · pool 12% · market #4+2.4#3
  4. 8PRACTICAL JACK (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · VAL BRINKERHOFF · draw 8 · pool 17% · market #3-2.9#4
  5. 6DUKE SILVER (USA)ABEL LEZCANO · MARK GLATT · draw 6 · pool 10% · market #5+0.1#5
  6. 1CAPTAIN SHREVE (USA)UMBERTO RISPOLI · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 1 · pool 5% · market #6+1.9#6
  7. 2THE WARDEN (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 2 · pool 2% · market #7+1.0#7
  8. 5STYLE CAT (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · PETER MILLER · draw 5 · pool 2% · market #8+0.8#8

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Keeneland (1.19 runs/horse) · Belmont Park (1.18 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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