Race 7 · Gulfstream Parkpool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 1MUSICAL POWER (USA) (4)+0.00% · 0%
  2. 2BELLA JAK (USA) (5)+0.00% · 0%
  3. 4THE PACKAGE (USA) (6)+0.00% · 0%
  4. 5SWEET SASH (USA) (2)+0.00% · 0%
  5. 6FIRE ON THE WIRE (USA) (1)+0.00% · 0%
  6. 7SPIRIT OF VICTORY (USA) (7)+0.00% · 0%
  7. 8KHOZY ME UP (USA) (3)+0.00% · 0%
HONOR HER (USA) (Koşmaz) is the pick: model 10% against a 0% pool share · verdict ↓

Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park picks — Sun 25 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →

10 races today · 31 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 2 tracks5 usable of 10 races · model overturns the favourite in 1Written Sun 25 Oct 2026, 19:15 ET · permalink

3 of 10 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Sun 25 Oct 2026

10 races across Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
5The pickNOT ONE LESS (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 3% · model 5.1% · DIEGO A. HERRERA
1Next bestMEMORY OF MY LIFE (USA) (8)pool 0% · model 0.0% · YOLBER TORRES

NOT ONE LESS (USA) (Koşmaz) (5) is the pick: model 5% against a 3% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge +2.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MEMORY OF MY LIFE (USA) (8) (1) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5NOT ONE LESS (USA)DIEGO A. HERRERA · ANTONIO SANO · draw 5 · pool 3% · market #1scr#5
  2. 1MEMORY OF MY LIFE (USA) (8)YOLBER TORRES · JAVIER E. MORZAN · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2BABY GUN (USA) (4)JONATHAN SANTOS · REYNALDO YANEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3COUSIN PAMMIE (USA) (1)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · KATHRYN DAVEY · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4KIONA (USA) (2)J.G. TORREALBA · CARLOS NARVAEZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6ZAZA J (USA) (7)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7SHAMROCK QUEEN (USA) (6)CARLOS MARTINEZ · HENRY COLLAZO · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 8HURRICANE OPUS (USA) (5)JESUS M. RIOS · RODERICK R. RODRIGUEZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 9SISTA SOL (USA) (3)JONATHAN OCASIO · MONICA MCGOEY · draw 9 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99

Race 2 · Gulfstream Park · 8 runners

Thin form
Maiden claiming · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
5The pickPOOLKILLERS (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 9.4% · SONNY LEON
2Next bestBEKAROV (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 1% · model 2.4% · YOLBER TORRES

POOLKILLERS (USA) (Koşmaz) (5) is the pick: model 9% against a 0% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +9.4 points.

The pool makes BEKAROV (USA) (Koşmaz) (2) favourite at 1%; the model rates it 2%, so we overturn the favourite.

BEKAROV (USA) (Koşmaz) (2) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5POOLKILLERS (USA)SONNY LEON · J. KENT SWEEZEY · draw 5 · pool — · market #2scr#5
  2. 2BEKAROV (USA)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 2 · pool 1% · market #1scr#8
  3. 1MACARIO (USA) (4)DIEGO A. HERRERA · LUIS M. RAMIREZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3TY WEBB (USA) (1)MARCOS MENESES · J. KENT SWEEZEY · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4GUNN ON THE RUN (USA) (3)JONATHAN OCASIO · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6TSAVORITE (USA) (5)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7RAPIDASH IT (USA) (6)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · MARY LIGHTNER · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 8ABARRIO FUGAZ (USA) (2)CARLOS MARTINEZ · CARLOS LUIS PEREZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 3 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
5f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4SECRET REVENGE (USA)EDGAR PEREZ · MICHAEL LERMAN · draw 4 · pool — · market #1scr#7
  2. 1FANTASTIC FLAME (USA) (5)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · TAREQ MOUBARAK · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2SUNGLOW (IRE) (3)SONNY LEON · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3BRAGANZA (USA) (2)JOSE E. MORELOS · ELIZABETH L. DOBLES · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5VINDICATE CHA CHA (USA) (1)LEONEL REYES · MICHAEL LERMAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6SU WIN (USA) (6)RENZO ROJAS · JUAN P. RIZO · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7GREENFIELD COUGAR (USA) (4)DIEGO A. HERRERA · DAVID FAWKES · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 6 · Gulfstream Park · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 0 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5COASTAL SHADOW (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · GARRETT W. ARSCOTT · draw 5 · pool — · market #1scr#8
  2. 1COLONEL DUKE (USA) (2)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · MICHAEL YATES · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2REMEMBER THE TIME (USA) (1)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3CYCLONE RYAN (USA) (9)MARCOS MENESES · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4KING OF LEGENDS (USA) (7)LEONEL REYES · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6ARE SEA (USA) (8)SONNY LEON · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7FLOOD PLAN (USA) (3)J.G. TORREALBA · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8DJOKOVIC (USA) (6)DIEGO A. HERRERA · TODD A. PLETCHER · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 9ALESSMAN (USA) (5)JESUS M. RIOS · ANTONIO SANO · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 10JUSTIFIED JOURNEY (USA) (4)NIK JUAREZ · LISA L. LEWIS · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#99

Race 7 · Gulfstream Park · 8 runners

Usable
Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
3The pickHONOR HER (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 9.8% · ANTHONY THOMAS
1Next bestMUSICAL POWER (USA) (4)pool 0% · model 0.0% · SONNY LEON

HONOR HER (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) is the pick: model 10% against a 0% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge +9.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MUSICAL POWER (USA) (4) (1) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3HONOR HER (USA)ANTHONY THOMAS · KENNEDY A. POWNALL · draw 3 · pool — · market #1scr#4
  2. 1MUSICAL POWER (USA) (4)SONNY LEON · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2BELLA JAK (USA) (5)DAVID BORACO · LUIS DUCO · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 4THE PACKAGE (USA) (6)LEONEL REYES · FRANK J. REGALBUTO · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 5SWEET SASH (USA) (2)O'BRIEN WHITE · ROHAN G. CRICHTON · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6FIRE ON THE WIRE (USA) (1)J.G. TORREALBA · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7SPIRIT OF VICTORY (USA) (7)DIEGO A. HERRERA · STEVE KLESARIS · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 8KHOZY ME UP (USA) (3)JONATHAN SANTOS · AMZADALI JEHALUDI · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 8 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Usable
5f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
9The pickVALIANT HONOR (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 7.1% · YOLBER TORRES
1Next bestAMANDE (USA) (7)pool 0% · model 0.0% · LEONEL REYES

VALIANT HONOR (USA) (Koşmaz) (9) is the pick: model 7% against a 0% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +7.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

AMANDE (USA) (7) (1) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 9VALIANT HONOR (USA)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 9 · pool — · market #1scr#6
  2. 1AMANDE (USA) (7)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2LADY HELENE (USA) (6)CARLOS MARTINEZ · ANGEL M. RODRIGUEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3NOSOX (USA) (1)DIEGO A. HERRERA · SAM WILENSKY · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4AMASIA (USA) (4)JOSE E. MORELOS · JENA M. ANTONUCCI · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5BOLTOUTTATHEBLUE (USA) (8)SONNY LEON · J. KENT SWEEZEY · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 6ARTISTE (USA) (5)EDGAR PEREZ · LUIS DUCO · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 7HOPE TOWN GIRL (USA) (2)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · SEBASTIAN PULGARIN · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 8WOULD I LIE TO YOU (USA) (3)RASHEED HUGHES · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 8 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99

Race 2 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
6The pickRUNNING SUPER (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 1% · model 7.1% · MANUEL AMERICANO
2Next bestDUSTEM TOO (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 1% · model 4.9% · RICARDO GONZALEZ

RUNNING SUPER (USA) (Koşmaz) (6) is the pick: model 7% against a 1% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +6.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

DUSTEM TOO (USA) (Koşmaz) (2) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6RUNNING SUPER (USA)MANUEL AMERICANO · VLADIMIR CERIN · draw 6 · pool 1% · market #1scr#5
  2. 2DUSTEM TOO (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 2 · pool 1% · market #2scr#6
  3. 1WISHES TO RICHES (USA) (3)KAZUSHI KIMURA · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 5BUSY MAKING MUNNY (USA) (2)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · TIM MCCANNA · draw 5 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4LOVELY MEDAGLIA (USA) (1)KYLE FREY · D. WAYNE BAKER · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 3FUN TO RUN (USA) (4)ARMANDO AGUILAR · RUBEN GOMEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99

Race 4 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6MEEKING (USA)ABEL LEZCANO · BILL MCLEAN · draw 6 · pool — · market #1scr#4
  2. 8DATS MS. BLAME (USA) (7)EMISAEL JARAMILLO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 8 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 7DEALERS SPECIAL (USA) (5)JOEL ROSARIO · RICHARD BALTAS · draw 7 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3COURT OF APPEAL (USA) (4)KYLE FREY · VLADIMIR CERIN · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 2MILLBO BAGGINS (USA) (6)ARMANDO AGUILAR · JOSE RAUDALES · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5TEE N OFF (USA) (2)ARMANDO AYUSO · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 4DESERT KAT (USA) (1)JEREMY LAPRIDA · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 1TIGGRRR WHITWORTH (USA) (3)PEDRO FLORES · SERGIO MORFIN · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 7 · Santa Anita Park · 11 runners

Thin form
6f Turf · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 11 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
10The pickDELANEYS DREAMER (USA)pool 16% · model 16.6% · JOEL ROSARIO
9Next bestTHE GRAY WOLF (USA)pool 15% · model 10.9% · ADRIAN ESCOBEDO

DELANEYS DREAMER (USA) (10) is the pick: model 17% against a 16% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge +0.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

THE GRAY WOLF (USA) (9) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 10DELANEYS DREAMER (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · VAL BRINKERHOFF · draw 10 · pool 16% · market #1+0.6#2
  2. 9THE GRAY WOLF (USA)ADRIAN ESCOBEDO · RYAN HANSON · draw 9 · pool 15% · market #2-4.1#5
  3. 5HE'S PROOF OF JOY (USA)KYLE FREY · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 5 · pool 7% · market #3+3.4#6
  4. 8STEVE'S BIG PAYDAY (USA)TYLER BAZE · DEBBIE WINICK · draw 8 · pool 3% · market #4+1.2#7
  5. 4ROWDYBARFIGHT (USA)JOSE VALDIVIA, JR. · DANIEL DUNHAM · draw 4 · pool 2% · market #5+1.6#8
  6. 2RACK ON MAN (USA)PEDRO FLORES · SERGIO MORFIN · draw 2 · pool 1% · market #6+1.1#9
  7. 11MIGUELITO (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · DEBBIE WINICK · draw 11 · pool 1% · market #7+1.0#10
  8. 7SIRNAMI (USA) (1)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · LEONARD POWELL · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 6DE FACTO (USA) (4)ARMANDO AYUSO · BRIAN J. KORINER · draw 6 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99
  10. 3STILL BULLETPROOF (USA) (2)RICARDO GONZALEZ · ANDY MATHIS · draw 3 · pool — · market #10+0.0#99
  11. 1OMISSION (USA) (3)CRISTOBAL HERRERA · GLORIA HALEY · draw 1 · pool — · market #11+0.0#99

Race 8 · Santa Anita Park · 11 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 11 of 11 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
2The pickWHYNOTANOTHERONE (CAN)pool 57% · model 37.0% · ARMANDO AYUSO
9Next bestLANK (USA)pool 10% · model 12.7% · JUAN J. HERNANDEZ
11At a priceFOREGONECONCLUSION (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 5.5% · MANUEL AMERICANO

WHYNOTANOTHERONE (CAN) (2) is the pick: model 37% against a 57% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge -20.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

LANK (USA) (9) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, FOREGONECONCLUSION (USA) (Koşmaz) (11) carries +5.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2WHYNOTANOTHERONE (CAN)ARMANDO AYUSO · ROBERT B. HESS, JR. · draw 2 · pool 57% · market #1-20.6#1
  2. 9LANK (USA)JUAN J. HERNANDEZ · BOB BAFFERT · draw 9 · pool 10% · market #3+2.6#2
  3. 5SIGMA BOY (USA)WANDRYCK CARDOSO FRANCO · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 5 · pool 11% · market #2+0.9#3
  4. 10LOW TOX (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 10 · pool 9% · market #4+2.6#4
  5. 6PERFECTIONACHIEVED (USA)JOEL ROSARIO · O. J. JAUREGUI · draw 6 · pool 4% · market #5+1.7#5
  6. 11FOREGONECONCLUSION (USA)MANUEL AMERICANO · ALBERTO RUVALCABA · draw 11 · pool — · market #11scr#6
  7. 1RAPID ASCENT (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 1 · pool 3% · market #6+2.2#7
  8. 8FREDDY FIVE FOUR (USA)VICTOR ESPINOZA · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 8 · pool 2% · market #7+2.1#8
  9. 7WAR ARTIST (USA)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 7 · pool 1% · market #8+1.2#9
  10. 3COSMIC TRAIL (USA)DAVID CHARLES LOPEZ · RUBEN GOMEZ · draw 3 · pool 1% · market #9+1.1#10
  11. 4HEAVENLY MATCH (USA)CRISTOBAL HERRERA · GLORIA HALEY · draw 4 · pool 1% · market #10+0.7#11

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Belmont Park (1.20 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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