Race 9 · Philadelphiapool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 6AS THE BELL TOLES (USA)+12.332% · 20%
  2. 8LADY SRIRACHA (USA)-0.515% · 16%
  3. 2SOUTHAMPTON DOCK (USA)-3.76% · 10%
  4. 7RUBY RUBY (USA)-3.74% · 8%
  5. 1SPIRIT OF ESTHER (USA) (1)+0.00% · 0%
  6. 3GRUENE HALL (USA) (4)+0.00% · 0%
  7. 4DOPPIO ESPRESSO (USA) (3)+0.00% · 0%
AS THE BELL TOLES (USA) is the pick: model 32% against a 20% pool share · verdict ↓

Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Mahoning Valley picks — Mon 26 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →

22 races today · 32 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Mon 26 Oct 2026 · 4 tracks6 usable of 22 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Mon 26 Oct 2026, 17:15 ET · permalink

10 of 22 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Mon 26 Oct 2026

22 races across Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Mahoning Valley. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 5 · Finger Lakes · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7BOOM SHOCKA BOOM (USA)KEIBER J. COA · TROY SMITH · draw 7 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 1RIDE SHARE (USA) (1)KEVIN NAVARRO · JONATHAN B. BUCKLEY · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2MIDNIGHT MUSUME (USA) (4)BEN S. JOSEPH · RACHEL SELLS · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3YAHEARMENOW (USA) (7)OLAF HERNANDEZ · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4RENEW THE BLUE (USA) (2)JOSE BAEZ · DANA SAUL · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5ANMOLO (USA) (3)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · NIRKA HUERTAS · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6EIGHT SUNSET DRIVE (USA) (6)CHRIS RUSSELL · ROBERT W. COOK · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8JUST A GUY (USA) (5)JEREMIAS FLORES · DONNA BIRETA · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 6 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4KING NIQUE (USA)LUIS E. PEREZ · JON G. ARNETT · draw 4 · pool — · market #1scr#6
  2. 1CANYOUHEARMERUNNIN (CAN) (4)JOSE BAEZ · DANA SAUL · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2HAY HAY HARRY (USA) (5)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · TIMOTHY P. MURPHY · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3POMPOUS PRINCE (USA) (6)KEIBER J. COA · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5BUSTIN AWAY (USA) (1)JOEL CRUZ · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6CAPT JAX PARROW (USA) (2)REYLU GUTIERREZ · LUIS GUTIERREZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7SIR KARTRITE (USA) (3)OLAF HERNANDEZ · MICHELLE TASSO · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 8 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
2The pickWESTERN WOLF (USA)pool 21% · model 17.3% · JOEL CRUZ
4Next bestDIVINE PEACE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 10.7% · REYLU GUTIERREZ

WESTERN WOLF (USA) (2) is the pick: model 17% against a 21% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge -3.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

DIVINE PEACE (USA) (Koşmaz) (4) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2WESTERN WOLF (USA)JOEL CRUZ · JAMES S. ACQUILANO · draw 2 · pool 21% · market #1-3.7#2
  2. 4DIVINE PEACE (USA)REYLU GUTIERREZ · RAFAEL JOSE ROHENA · draw 4 · pool — · market #3scr#5
  3. 6RESIDE (USA)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · TIMOTHY P. MURPHY · draw 6 · pool 5% · market #2-2.4#7
  4. 1LUCEO NON URO (USA) (3)WLADIMIR RENGIFO · KATLYNN GUTTERSON · draw 1 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 3LIV HAS RIZZ (USA) (1)J. M. ROHENA · CHRIS J. ENGLEHART · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5RAGTIME PRANKSTER (USA) (2)JOHN C. BERRIOS · DONNA BIRETA · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7ROCKED OUT (USA) (4)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · DANA SAUL · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
8The pickJOCK FROST (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 7% · model 6.1% · ORLANDO MOJICA, JR.
5Next bestSOUND DOCTRINE (USA) (7)pool 0% · model 0.0% · JOSEPH D. RAMOS

JOCK FROST (USA) (Koşmaz) (8) is the pick: model 6% against a 7% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge -0.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SOUND DOCTRINE (USA) (7) (5) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 8JOCK FROST (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA, JR. · SERGIO DON JUAN · draw 8 · pool 7% · market #1scr#7
  2. 5SOUND DOCTRINE (USA) (7)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · ANTHONY F. CUNNINGHAM · draw 5 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 1MY BOSSY LADY (USA) (2)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 2DREAMING SMART (USA) (3)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 3FOLLOW THE MONEY (USA) (6)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 4ROCKET HOSS (USA) (1)MICAH MEEKS · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 6FURIOUS ANGER (USA) (4)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · MARCELINO SALAS · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 9LAVENDER EARL (USA) (5)ALBERTO BURGOS · CARLOS RAMIREZ · draw 9 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 7TAY (USA) (8)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · SCOTT D. MULLINS · draw 7 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99

Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 7 runners

Blind
5½f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 0 of 7 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 4MISS BREWSKI (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · SARAH E. SHAFFER · draw 4 · pool 2% · market #1scr#7
  2. 3HOLLY BLUE (USA) (2)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · BRAD H. COX · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 5DIXIELAND (USA) (3)AXEL CONCEPCION · WILLIAM WALDEN · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 7SOLSIA (USA) (4)YOMAR ORTIZ, JR. · JOE SHARP · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 2NIETAS (USA) (6)YARMARIE L. CORREA · PABLO ANDRADE · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6CHEERINESS (USA) (5)IRVING MONCADA · THOMAS DRURY, JR. · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 1CUCURELLA (USA) (1)SANTIAGO GONZALEZ · PABLO ANDRADE · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 3 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
5f Turf · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7J P HELLISH (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · THOMAS D. FOLEY · draw 7 · pool — · market #1scr#5
  2. 3MAJOR WAGER (USA) (4)ALBIN JIMENEZ · JAMIE L. GRUBBS · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 8CATAMOUNT (USA) (7)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · MICHAEL B. CAMPBELL · draw 8 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 4WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK (USA) (3)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · DINO DIZEO · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 6BUTCH'S BEST (USA) (1)MITCHELL MURRILL · ROBERT E. DOBBS, JR. · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5SPINNING PRIDE (USA) (8)CARLOS MONTALVO · GENNADI DOROCHENKO · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 9SPOKE (USA) (2)SANTO SANJUR · ROGELIO LABRA · draw 9 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 1MAIBOCK (USA) (6)ALEX ACHARD · JUSTIN WOJCZYNSKI · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 2HOMIE (USA) (5)J.J. MEZA · ISMAEL BAHENA · draw 2 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 4 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 1 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3SEALED DESTINY (USA)VICTOR LARA · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #1scr#5
  2. 9ECHO PARADISE (USA) (5)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 9 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2IMONLYSLEEPING (USA) (3)ALBERTO BURGOS · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 7MY CHICKADEE (USA) (2)ALEX ACHARD · HUGO RODRIGUEZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4CALL HER MAJESTY (USA) (4)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · EDWARD VAUGHAN · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 1ANGELS SING (USA) (6)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6TUXCA (USA) (1)MICAH MEEKS · ERICK ALEXANDER TORRES · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8TINY TAPPER (USA) (7)DECLAN CANNON · JIMMY CORRIGAN · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 5MURASAKI (USA) (8)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · AMARA KRANZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Allowance, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 12 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 10CRICKENBERGER (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 10 · pool — · market #1scr#1
  2. 6FOXY JUSTICE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5LILMORECRAKEN (USA)MIGUEL FERNANDEZ · IAN R. WILKES · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2INNISFREE LASS (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · JOHN HARAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 11TIZ WINE TIME (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 11 · pool — · market #5scr#5
  6. 4ONCE MORE (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · EDWARD K. ROGGENKAMP III · draw 4 · pool — · market #6scr#6
  7. 12MOLLY'S POTION (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · DAWN A. FONTENOT · draw 12 · pool — · market #7—#11
  8. 7FIFTH WHEEL (USA)SANTO SANJUR · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#12
  9. 8SWEET HEAT (USA) (1)ORLANDO BOCACHICA · KARA LIN MCGUIRE · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 9INSTILLED ZIP (USA) (3)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 9 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 3JACK'S SUMMER (USA) (2)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · ROBERT C. STURGEON · draw 3 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 1PINK PICTURE (USA) (4)EVIN A. ROMAN · ROGELIO LABRA · draw 1 · pool — · market #12—#99

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 12 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3START MO UP (USA)ALEX ACHARD · JOE LEJZEROWICZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 5EINSTEIN'S GHOST (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · JOHN HARAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #2scr#4
  3. 10PAPIAMENTO (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · TRACEY J. WISNER · draw 10 · pool — · market #3—#5
  4. 11DAUWE (USA)ANGEL SERPA · LILIA GONZALEZ · draw 11 · pool — · market #4—#6
  5. 2FOOLS JESTER (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#7
  6. 9SENOR VALENTINE (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · JOSE CAZARES · draw 9 · pool — · market #6—#9
  7. 6INSTANT CLASSIC (USA)VICTOR LARA · FERNANDO BAHENA · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#12
  8. 7SAVE MY TOWN (USA) (3)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · GENARO GARCIA · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 8LARGE RISK (USA) (1)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 12STAR SAVER (USA) (2)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · MIGUEL ANGEL SILVA · draw 12 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 4MORNING POWER (USA) (4)ORLANDO MOJICA · GENNADI DOROCHENKO · draw 4 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 1MIGHTY ARMY (USA) (5)FAUSTO HENRIQUE DA SILVA · TENA BIRDWELL · draw 1 · pool — · market #12—#99

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 14 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 14 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
10The pickCE LA VI CHARLI (USA)pool 28% · model 26.4% · AMIR MENDOZA
9Next bestI MADE IT (USA)pool 19% · model 15.2% · ALBERTO BURGOS

CE LA VI CHARLI (USA) (10) is the pick: model 26% against a 28% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -1.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

I MADE IT (USA) (9) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 10CE LA VI CHARLI (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 10 · pool 28% · market #1-1.9#1
  2. 9I MADE IT (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 9 · pool 19% · market #2-4.0#2
  3. 1COLLECTED BOND (USA)IRVING MONCADA · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 1 · pool 14% · market #3-4.0#3
  4. 8RANCH LIFE (USA)AXEL CONCEPCION · NICHOLAS VACCAREZZA · draw 8 · pool 9% · market #4-1.0#4
  5. 6LADY BLAKE (USA)MICAH MEEKS · JAMES E. BAKER · draw 6 · pool 8% · market #5-1.4#5
  6. 3ANNIE EXPRESS (USA)SANTO SANJUR · CHAZ RECHY · draw 3 · pool 6% · market #6-0.1#6
  7. 2ZIGGZAPPA (USA)ALBIN JIMENEZ · JAMIE L. GRUBBS · draw 2 · pool 5% · market #7+0.7#7
  8. 13BEACH DANCER (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 13 · pool — · market #13scr#8
  9. 4ZIVA (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · BYRON G. HUGHES · draw 4 · pool — · market #14scr#9
  10. 11AIRO DINERO (USA)TRAVIS WALES · HEATHER IRION · draw 11 · pool 3% · market #8+1.2#10
  11. 7LUCKY SHORE (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · ROBERT C. STURGEON · draw 7 · pool 3% · market #9+0.1#11
  12. 5WHITE LILACS (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · FELIPE SALAS · draw 5 · pool 2% · market #10+0.1#12
  13. 12CAUSE IMA ROSE (USA)SUMMER PAULY · ANTHONY E. GUIDA · draw 12 · pool 1% · market #11+0.7#13
  14. 14LARKSONG (USA)RAFAEL MOJICA, JR. · REBECCA JOHNSTON · draw 14 · pool 1% · market #12scr#14

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 11 runners

Thin form
8f Dirt · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 10 of 11 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
11The pickGRANDFATHER SIR (USA)pool 36% · model 29.4% · AMIR MENDOZA
2Next bestTRICKED YOU (USA)pool 27% · model 16.7% · SANTO SANJUR
3At a priceBLUES ROCKER (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 7.7% · MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR.

GRANDFATHER SIR (USA) (11) is the pick: model 29% against a 36% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -6.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

TRICKED YOU (USA) (2) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

For something at a price, BLUES ROCKER (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) carries +7.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 11GRANDFATHER SIR (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 11 · pool 36% · market #1-6.9#1
  2. 2TRICKED YOU (USA)SANTO SANJUR · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 2 · pool 27% · market #2-10.5#2
  3. 7SKIP N SCOOT (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 7 · pool 22% · market #3-8.3#3
  4. 3BLUES ROCKER (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ROBERT E. DOBBS, JR. · draw 3 · pool — · market #9scr#4
  5. 9C J'S BOPERS (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 9 · pool — · market #10scr#5
  6. 5READY FOR THE RIDE (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 5 · pool 5% · market #4+1.0#6
  7. 10MR. STRIKE (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · TERRY VAUGHN · draw 10 · pool — · market #11scr#7
  8. 4UNCLE TUFF (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 4 · pool 4% · market #5+1.7#8
  9. 8COMEONWITHIT (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 8 · pool 2% · market #6+1.3#9
  10. 6BIGNETTI (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · JONATHAN NANCE · draw 6 · pool 2% · market #7+1.2#10
  11. 1C V HADES (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · KENIA HERNANDEZ · draw 1 · pool 1% · market #8+0.4#11

Race 1 · Philadelphia · 6 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
6The pickMAY MISCHIEF (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 5% · model 6.3% · BRYAN L. TORRES
3Next bestROSE OF SHARON (CAN) (Koşmaz)pool 3% · model 4.8% · SILVESTRE GONZALEZ

MAY MISCHIEF (USA) (Koşmaz) (6) is the pick: model 6% against a 5% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge +1.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

ROSE OF SHARON (CAN) (Koşmaz) (3) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6MAY MISCHIEF (USA)BRYAN L. TORRES · ELLIOTT SOTO- MARTINEZ · draw 6 · pool 5% · market #1scr#5
  2. 3ROSE OF SHARON (CAN)SILVESTRE GONZALEZ · JOSE G. GONZALEZ-MILIAN · draw 3 · pool 3% · market #2scr#6
  3. 1VANAKA (USA) (2)ANGEL CASTILLO · IRVING RODRIGUEZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 2SPOOKY GAL (USA) (1)KENDRY RIVERA · EDWARD J. COLETTI, JR. · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4CHARM OF THE SONG (USA) (4)ANDY HERNANDEZ · JACINTO SOLIS · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5BUCKIN' RIGHT (USA) (3)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · ELLIOTT SOTO- MARTINEZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99

Race 2 · Philadelphia · 6 runners

Thin form
6½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
6The pickMOOR STRENGTH (USA)pool 15% · model 7.6% · ELISEO RUIZ
5Next bestTELEPHONE LINE (USA)pool 13% · model 4.8% · ABNER ADORNO

MOOR STRENGTH (USA) (6) is the pick: model 8% against a 15% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -7.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

TELEPHONE LINE (USA) (5) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6MOOR STRENGTH (USA)ELISEO RUIZ · SILVINO RAMIREZ · draw 6 · pool 15% · market #1-7.4#3
  2. 5TELEPHONE LINE (USA)ABNER ADORNO · SCOTT A. LAKE · draw 5 · pool 13% · market #2-8.2#6
  3. 1PEARLS AND HEELS (USA) (1)RUBEN SILVERA · ERNESTO PADILLA-PRECIADO · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 2SHADYSIDE (USA) (3)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 3BROWNEYEDVALENTINE (USA) (4)ANGEL CASTILLO · EMMANUEL TZORTZAKIS · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 4SHETALKSTOMUCH (USA) (2)JORGE A. VARGAS, JR. · ERNESTO PADILLA-PRECIADO · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99

Race 3 · Philadelphia · 6 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
5The pickREAD THE METER (USA)pool 4% · model 8.2% · LUIS M. OCASIO
6Next bestCRAIGH NA DUN (USA)pool 2% · model 4.6% · ADAM BOWMAN

READ THE METER (USA) (5) is the pick: model 8% against a 4% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +4.2 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

CRAIGH NA DUN (USA) (6) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5READ THE METER (USA)LUIS M. OCASIO · IRVING RODRIGUEZ · draw 5 · pool 4% · market #1+4.2#4
  2. 6CRAIGH NA DUN (USA)ADAM BOWMAN · ALAN BEDARD · draw 6 · pool 2% · market #2+2.6#6
  3. 1CAPT FLUFF N STUFF (USA) (4)MAGGLIO SANCHEZ · KATHLEEN A. DEMASI · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 2MATZOBALL MUHAMMET (USA) (3)JATNIEL RAMOS · TONY PEREZ FLORES · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 3WHEELHOUSE (USA) (2)ABNER ADORNO · SUSAN L. CROWELL · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 4QUICK TO JUDGE (USA) (1)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · URIAH ST. LEWIS · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99

Race 4 · Philadelphia · 6 runners

NO POOL YET
8½f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 6 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2ZOPPI FISCHBEIN (USA)ADAM BOWMAN · HAROLD WYNER · draw 2 · pool — · market #1—#5
  2. 6WINNING SONG (USA)DEXTER HADDOCK · JACINTO SOLIS · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#6
  3. 1IRISH MAMBA (USA) (4)MAGGLIO SANCHEZ · RUPERTO A. PEREZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3CHAIN LIGHTNING (USA) (2)KENDRY RIVERA · ELI BETANCOURT · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4SHALLUS (USA) (3)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · SCOTT A. LAKE · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5BONAFIDE (USA) (1)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · ROBERT MOSCO · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99

Race 5 · Philadelphia · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 8WHO'S YOUR HATTIE (USA)PACO LOPEZ · SCOTT A. LAKE · draw 8 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4GREY BULL (USA)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 3JOY BOY (USA)JATNIEL RAMOS · JULIO RODRIGUEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#4
  4. 2RIGHTEOUS FELON (USA)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · J. GUADALUPE GUERRERO · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#8
  5. 1RELENTLESSNESS (USA) (3)ANDY HERNANDEZ · BOBBI ANNE HAWTHORNE · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5MOR CHEESE PLEASE (USA) (1)ABNER ADORNO · HUGO O. PADILLA · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6TREGETOUR (USA) (4)DEXTER HADDOCK · JACINTO SOLIS · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 7HYPERLINK (USA) (2)FRANKIE PENNINGTON · JAMIE NESS · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 6 · Philadelphia · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6CHELSEA WALL (USA)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 6 · pool — · market #1scr#1
  2. 1MOLLY'S A BULLET (USA)ANGEL CASTILLO · RONALD B. ABRAMS · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#3
  3. 3AMBITIOUSLY PLACED (USA)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · JACK ABRAMS · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#6
  4. 5WINKIWINKI (USA)ELISEO RUIZ · SILVINO RAMIREZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#7
  5. 2LADY EMILY KATHRYN (USA) (2)CAMILA HARGROVE · JACK ABRAMS · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 4GAME ENERGY (USA) (4)MAGGLIO SANCHEZ · RUPERTO A. PEREZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7AMY MULE (USA) (3)LUIS M. OCASIO · JOSE M. SANTAELLA-CALDERON · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8CRUISE MISSILE (USA) (1)MELVIS GONZALEZ · ELLIOTT SOTO- MARTINEZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 7 · Philadelphia · 7 runners

Thin form
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
1The pickKING PEANUT (USA)pool 22% · model 21.7% · PACO LOPEZ
5Next bestCALL ME ANDY (USA)pool 15% · model 16.1% · MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ

KING PEANUT (USA) (1) is the pick: model 22% against a 22% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -0.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

CALL ME ANDY (USA) (5) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1KING PEANUT (USA)PACO LOPEZ · WAYNE POTTS · draw 1 · pool 22% · market #1-0.5#2
  2. 5CALL ME ANDY (USA)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 5 · pool 15% · market #2+0.9#3
  3. 6TOUGH GUY TONY (USA)MARTIN CHUAN · MICHAEL E. JONES, JR. · draw 6 · pool 4% · market #3-1.0#7
  4. 2CAJUN VENOM (USA) (4)LUIS M. OCASIO · LOUIS C. LINDER, JR. · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 3COMPLEX MUSIC (USA) (3)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · MICHAEL V. PINO · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 4GREAT COMPOSER (USA) (1)ELISEO RUIZ · RUPERTO A. PEREZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7VANCOUGAR (USA) (2)RUBEN SILVERA · ERNESTO PADILLA-PRECIADO · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 8 · Philadelphia · 6 runners

Thin form
6½f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
2The pickVOLLEYBALLPRINCESS (USA)pool 8% · model 10.8% · PACO LOPEZ
1Next bestCAROUSEL QUEEN (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 10.4% · ANGEL CASTILLO

VOLLEYBALLPRINCESS (USA) (2) is the pick: model 11% against a 8% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +2.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

CAROUSEL QUEEN (USA) (Koşmaz) (1) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2VOLLEYBALLPRINCESS (USA)PACO LOPEZ · LOUIS C. LINDER, JR. · draw 2 · pool 8% · market #1+2.8#2
  2. 1CAROUSEL QUEEN (USA)ANGEL CASTILLO · SCOTT A. LAKE · draw 1 · pool — · market #2scr#3
  3. 3CENTRE COURT CHAMP (USA) (3)ABNER ADORNO · ROBERT MOSCO · draw 3 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 4MORE THAN GRACE (USA) (1)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · MICHAEL V. PINO · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 5MISSY SIXTYSIX (USA) (2)ELISEO RUIZ · MICHAEL M. MOORE · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6VANILLA (USA) (4)FRANKIE PENNINGTON · HAROLD WYNER · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99

Race 9 · Philadelphia · 8 runners

Usable
8¼f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
6The pickAS THE BELL TOLES (USA)pool 20% · model 32.1% · PACO LOPEZ
8Next bestLADY SRIRACHA (USA)pool 16% · model 15.3% · ELISEO RUIZ

AS THE BELL TOLES (USA) (6) is the pick: model 32% against a 20% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge +12.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

LADY SRIRACHA (USA) (8) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6AS THE BELL TOLES (USA)PACO LOPEZ · WAYNE POTTS · draw 6 · pool 20% · market #1+12.3#1
  2. 8LADY SRIRACHA (USA)ELISEO RUIZ · MICHAEL M. MOORE · draw 8 · pool 16% · market #2-0.5#3
  3. 2SOUTHAMPTON DOCK (USA)RUBEN SILVERA · LOUIS C. LINDER, JR. · draw 2 · pool 10% · market #3-3.7#6
  4. 7RUBY RUBY (USA)DEXTER HADDOCK · HAROLD WYNER · draw 7 · pool 8% · market #4-3.7#7
  5. 1SPIRIT OF ESTHER (USA) (1)MARTIN CHUAN · JAMIE NESS · draw 1 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 3GRUENE HALL (USA) (4)MELVIS GONZALEZ · JUAN CARLOS GUERRERO · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 4DOPPIO ESPRESSO (USA) (3)CAMILA HARGROVE · JORGE DIAZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 5ROYALTIES RICHES (USA) (2)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · MICHAEL V. PINO · draw 5 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 2 · Mahoning Valley · 7 runners

Blind
5½f Dirt · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 0 of 7 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 6FLASHY IDOL (USA)GERARDO CORRALES · NESTOR R. RIVERA · draw 6 · pool 1% · market #1scr#7
  2. 1THE ACE PROJECT (USA) (2)VICTOR R. FERNANDEZ · TIMOTHY E. HAMM · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2ATI DUDE (USA) (5)LAUREANO SOSA · TIMOTHY E. HAMM · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3SHARON'S WISH (USA) (1)MAURO CEDILLO · ROBERT C. CLINE · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4ALL NINE YARDS (USA) (3)JOSE A. BRACHO · RICHARD ZIELINSKI · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5SNITCH (USA) (4)ERIK BARBARAN · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7GOTTABEGAVIN (USA) (6)GERMAN TERRAZA · CRAIG SWEETING · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 6 · Mahoning Valley · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 9COUPLE BEERS DEEP (USA)DAVID J. HALDAR · SAUL M. MORALES · draw 9 · pool — · market #1scr#7
  2. 1WORTHY OF IT ALL (USA) (1)ERIK BARBARAN · MICHAEL L. RONE · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2SCIOTO (USA) (4)JOE STOKES · ROBERT C. CLINE · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3VECCHI (USA) (2)JOSE A. BRACHO · REY JUAREZ-MENDOZA · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4VALIANT STRIKE (USA) (7)VICTOR R. FERNANDEZ · ROBERT C. CLINE · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5SILVER IS A GIFT (USA) (3)JANN N. HERNANDEZ · HUGO ANDRADE · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6SEEKING FREEDOM (USA) (5)ELIJAH GREENIDGE · RODNEY C. FAULKNER · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 7DRILL EM (USA) (6)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · SAUL M. MORALES · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 8TRUTH N SOUL (USA) (8)LUIS RAUL RIVERA · JEFFREY A. RADOSEVICH · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#99

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

One discipline, five racing worlds:TJK Tahmin · TurkeySha Tin More · Hong KongUSA Pick Day · USASA Horse Race · South AfricaRace Franch · Francethe network →