Race 8 · Finger Lakespool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 1GRAND LADY INDY (USA) (6)+0.00% · 0%
  2. 2NUMERIC (USA) (5)+0.00% · 0%
  3. 3BLUE EYED SCOUT (USA) (4)+0.00% · 0%
  4. 4THIN LEGS (USA) (3)+0.00% · 0%
  5. 5KAYMUS (USA) (2)+0.00% · 0%
  6. 6CINNAMON SUGAR (USA) (1)+0.00% · 0%
TUMBLES (USA) (Koşmaz) is the pick: model 4% against a 2% pool share · verdict ↓

Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Mahoning Valley picks — Tue 27 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →

16 races today · 33 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Tue 27 Oct 2026 · 3 tracks3 usable of 16 races · model overturns the favourite in 1Written Tue 27 Oct 2026, 17:15 ET · permalink

10 of 16 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Tue 27 Oct 2026

16 races across Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Mahoning Valley. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 5 · Finger Lakes · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7MISTER J T (USA)OLAF HERNANDEZ · KARL M. GRUSMARK · draw 7 · pool — · market #1scr#9
  2. 1HEADS OR TAILS (USA) (6)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · CHRIS J. ENGLEHART · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2DOUBLE SHOT (USA) (3)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · DAVID OYOLA · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3BREAKING STONES (USA) (1)JEREMIAS FLORES · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4POST FACTO (USA) (8)WLADIMIR RENGIFO · ILMAR LOAIZA · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5ALLURE OF MONEY (USA) (7)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · TIMOTHY P. MURPHY · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6WINSTON D (USA) (2)OSCAR GOMEZ · RACHEL SELLS · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8PROFITABILITY (USA) (4)JOEL CRUZ · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 9THREE LITTLE BIRDS (USA) (5)LUIS E. PEREZ · CHARLTON BAKER · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 6 · Finger Lakes · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5DIPTIQUE (USA)STEVEN FRET · AADIL S. KHAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #1scr#6
  2. 6CLASSIWEST (USA)WLADIMIR RENGIFO · KATLYNN GUTTERSON · draw 6 · pool — · market #2scr#8
  3. 1HIDDEN VASE (USA) (5)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · JON G. ARNETT · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 2DANCIN JANE (USA) (6)LUIS E. PEREZ · MICHAEL S. FERRARO · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 3RED BURGUNDY (USA) (3)SOFIA VIVES · MICHAEL S. FERRARO · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 4LOVELY PASHYN (USA) (4)JEREMIAS FLORES · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7CARARRA (USA) (1)JOEL CRUZ · CHARLTON BAKER · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8WORLD BANK (USA) (2)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · KATLYNN GUTTERSON · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 8 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
7The pickTUMBLES (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 2% · model 4.4% · WLADIMIR RENGIFO
1Next bestGRAND LADY INDY (USA) (6)pool 0% · model 0.0% · KEIBER J. COA

TUMBLES (USA) (Koşmaz) (7) is the pick: model 4% against a 2% pool share, 10 runs of US form on file, edge +2.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

GRAND LADY INDY (USA) (6) (1) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7TUMBLES (USA)WLADIMIR RENGIFO · JULIUS ASHLEY · draw 7 · pool 2% · market #1scr#6
  2. 1GRAND LADY INDY (USA) (6)KEIBER J. COA · MICHAEL S. FERRARO · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2NUMERIC (USA) (5)JOHN C. BERRIOS · JOSE MERCED · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3BLUE EYED SCOUT (USA) (4)STEVEN FRET · JULIE PIERSON · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4THIN LEGS (USA) (3)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · JAMES S. ACQUILANO · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5KAYMUS (USA) (2)JEREMIAS FLORES · LINDA K. DIXON · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 6CINNAMON SUGAR (USA) (1)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · CHARLTON BAKER · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

Thin form
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 2 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
5The pickC C'S GIFT (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 8.8% · VICTOR LARA
3Next bestTRUE SILVER J P (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 3% · model 1.4% · ALEX ACHARD

C C'S GIFT (USA) (Koşmaz) (5) is the pick: model 9% against a 0% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge +8.8 points.

The pool makes TRUE SILVER J P (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) favourite at 3%; the model rates it 1%, so we overturn the favourite.

TRUE SILVER J P (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5C C'S GIFT (USA)VICTOR LARA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 5 · pool — · market #2scr#7
  2. 3TRUE SILVER J P (USA)ALEX ACHARD · ISRAEL ACEVEDO · draw 3 · pool 3% · market #1scr#8
  3. 2SOUL OF THE NIGHT (USA) (3)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · BRAD H. COX · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 6MY KID'S SAID NO (USA) (6)FAUSTO HENRIQUE DA SILVA · TENA BIRDWELL · draw 6 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 7GIN FOR GEM (USA) (1)MIGUEL FERNANDEZ · IAN R. WILKES · draw 7 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 8LIAMS FANCY (USA) (2)WALTER A. RODRIGUEZ · LARRY RIVELLI · draw 8 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 4STELLA'S MISCHIEF (USA) (4)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 4 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 1MO TOWN FOXY BROWN (USA) (5)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 1 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 4 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5IN FOR A SPIN (USA)VICTOR R. CARRASCO · CAIO CARAMORI · draw 5 · pool — · market #1scr#5
  2. 10GOLDENAGEACTRESS (USA) (5)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 10 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 6BIRKIN GIRL (USA) (4)ALEX ACHARD · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 9TIZ WINE TIME (USA) (1)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 7COOL AMERICAN (USA) (7)MIGUEL FERNANDEZ · MICHELLE LOVELL · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 1SI O SI (USA) (8)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 4VALESKA'S PROMISE (USA) (9)HANNAH LEAHEY · MIGUEL ANGEL SILVA · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8TIDAL TACTICS (USA) (6)GUILLERMO RODRIGUEZ · JERRED MITCHELL · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 3JUSTICE PREVAILS (USA) (3)WALTER A. RODRIGUEZ · COLBY WILLIAMS · draw 3 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 2BELONGTOTHENAVY (USA) (2)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 2 · pool — · market #10—#99

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 2 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4HEARTACHES (USA)CARLOS ERIELTUN FRANCA · EDWARD K. ROGGENKAMP III · draw 4 · pool — · market #1scr#2
  2. 6MY AWESOME GOLD (USA)VICTOR LARA · JAMES K. CHAPMAN · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#3
  3. 8ZIMOMO (USA)YOMAR ORTIZ, JR. · KELSEY DANNER · draw 8 · pool — · market #3—#6
  4. 7THE NEW DIXIE (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · COLBY WILLIAMS · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#8
  5. 1PLANK (USA)JANN N. HERNANDEZ · REY HERNANDEZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#9
  6. 5BLESSED FORTUNE (USA) (1)SANTIAGO GONZALEZ · JOSE M. CAMEJO · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 2EL JABALI (USA) (2)WILLIAM ANTONGEORGI III · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 2 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 9CROATOAN (USA) (3)MIA NICHOLLS · ANNA M. MEAH · draw 9 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 3GENSISTHEKING (USA) (4)MICAH MEEKS · MICHAEL WEAVER · draw 3 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 16 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 16 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 12GOT STRIPES (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · ALEXIS CLAIRE · draw 12 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 16ST. ARMANDS KEY (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · MICHAEL J. MAKER · draw 16 · pool — · market #2scr#2
  3. 5HUEVOS D'ORO (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 5 · pool — · market #3scr#5
  4. 14DADDYS DREAM (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · BRIAN WALTZ · draw 14 · pool — · market #4scr#6
  5. 10BORN FLASHY (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · TRACEY J. WISNER · draw 10 · pool — · market #5—#7
  6. 8DEL MO (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · JOSE ORANTES · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#8
  7. 13NAVY SOUL (USA)ALEX ACHARD · BONNIE PITTMAN · draw 13 · pool — · market #7scr#10
  8. 15NATHANIEL'S HOPE (USA)VICTOR LARA · JOEL MARTINEZ · draw 15 · pool — · market #8—#11
  9. 9SUMMER LOVER (USA)MICAH MEEKS · MIGUEL ANGEL SILVA · draw 9 · pool — · market #9scr#12
  10. 7SHANE FALCO (USA)IRVING MONCADA · AARON M. WEST · draw 7 · pool — · market #10scr#15
  11. 11JOCK FROST (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA, JR. · SERGIO DON JUAN · draw 11 · pool — · market #11—#16
  12. 6BRIT'S WIT (USA) (5)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · MICHAEL J. MAKER · draw 6 · pool — · market #12—#99
  13. 2WOODCOCK FLIGHT (IRE) (3)MITCHELL MURRILL · CHRIS BANKS · draw 2 · pool — · market #13—#99
  14. 1MEMPHIS PHAROAH (USA) (2)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 1 · pool — · market #14—#99
  15. 4EXTRAVAGANT PRINCE (USA) (4)DANILO GRISALES RAVE · WILLIAM P. MCCALL III · draw 4 · pool — · market #15—#99
  16. 3ELEVATED GAME (USA) (1)JANE ELLIOTT · ANNA M. MEAH · draw 3 · pool — · market #16—#99

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 16 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Allowance, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 16 of 16 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
3The pickCOLLECTIVE BEAUTY (USA)pool 25% · model 22.0% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
7Next bestCINQUANTE CINQ (IRE)pool 18% · model 11.4% · ALEX ACHARD
13At a priceDREAMING OF JOY (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 6.2% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ

COLLECTIVE BEAUTY (USA) (3) is the pick: model 22% against a 25% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge -3.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

CINQUANTE CINQ (IRE) (7) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, DREAMING OF JOY (USA) (Koşmaz) (13) carries +6.2 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3COLLECTIVE BEAUTY (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · BRAD H. COX · draw 3 · pool 25% · market #1-3.0#1
  2. 7CINQUANTE CINQ (IRE)ALEX ACHARD · RILEY MOTT · draw 7 · pool 18% · market #2-6.6#2
  3. 12NEVER REALLY KNOW (IRE)MITCHELL MURRILL · NORM W. CASSE · draw 12 · pool 14% · market #3-3.8#3
  4. 1LET'S GO BARBIE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 1 · pool 10% · market #4-2.8#4
  5. 13DREAMING OF JOY (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · BRAD H. COX · draw 13 · pool — · market #11scr#5
  6. 2KENZ (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · STEVEN M. ASMUSSEN · draw 2 · pool 7% · market #7-1.8#6
  7. 6SCREAMIN NINA (USA)IRVING MONCADA · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 6 · pool — · market #12scr#7
  8. 8SUDDEN RISE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 8 · pool 9% · market #5-3.9#8
  9. 10SURPRENANT COCCA (USA)ALBIN JIMENEZ · CLAUDE L. BROWNFIELD III · draw 10 · pool 8% · market #6-3.0#9
  10. 5RING RIGHTS (USA)SUMMER PAULY · BRIAN KNIPPENBERG · draw 5 · pool — · market #13scr#10
  11. 4TAKE MY PICTURE (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · MICHELLE DALTON · draw 4 · pool 6% · market #8-1.6#11
  12. 16DONNA STRADA (USA)IRVING MONCADA · TOMMY HUMPHRIES · draw 16 · pool — · market #14scr#12
  13. 14MAX (USA)JANE ELLIOTT · JIMMY CORRIGAN · draw 14 · pool — · market #15scr#13
  14. 15TEMPLE TEMPTRESS (USA)LUAN MACHADO · ETHAN W. WEST · draw 15 · pool — · market #16scr#14
  15. 11STORMY PARADISE (USA)DANILO GRISALES RAVE · ED MOGER, JR. · draw 11 · pool 2% · market #9-0.9#15
  16. 9SOARING ANGEL (USA)GUILLERMO RODRIGUEZ · SUSAN L. ANDERSON · draw 9 · pool 1% · market #10-0.5#16

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
2The pickWELL HEY THERE (USA)pool 52% · model 33.9% · SANTO SANJUR
3Next bestEASY EFFORT (USA)pool 17% · model 18.4% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
9At a priceWEALTH N TASTE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 6.7% · JOSEPH M. ROMERO

WELL HEY THERE (USA) (2) is the pick: model 34% against a 52% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge -18.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

EASY EFFORT (USA) (3) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, WEALTH N TASTE (USA) (Koşmaz) (9) carries +6.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2WELL HEY THERE (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 2 · pool 52% · market #1-18.1#1
  2. 3EASY EFFORT (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · AARON M. WEST · draw 3 · pool 17% · market #2+1.4#2
  3. 4WINDY STORM (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · AARON M. WEST · draw 4 · pool 6% · market #5+3.1#3
  4. 1CLOUDLESS DAY (USA)VICTOR LARA · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 1 · pool 7% · market #3+1.8#4
  5. 5PIOUS (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 5 · pool 7% · market #4+0.7#5
  6. 9WEALTH N TASTE (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 9 · pool — · market #10scr#6
  7. 7BEST HAT (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 7 · pool 5% · market #6+0.6#7
  8. 8SUPERSTITIOUS (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 8 · pool 3% · market #7+1.3#8
  9. 6DESIGNER TAG (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 6 · pool 2% · market #8+1.9#9
  10. 10PEAR (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · SCOTT D. MULLINS · draw 10 · pool 1% · market #9+0.6#10

Race 1 · Mahoning Valley · 10 runners

Thin form
5½f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
7The pickPAVED IN GOLD (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 2% · model 3.9% · GUILLERMO RODRIGUEZ
1Next bestTROPHY HUSBAND (USA) (5)pool 0% · model 0.0% · LUIS NEGRON

PAVED IN GOLD (USA) (Koşmaz) (7) is the pick: model 4% against a 2% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +1.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

TROPHY HUSBAND (USA) (5) (1) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7PAVED IN GOLD (USA)GUILLERMO RODRIGUEZ · NANCY L. ADAMS · draw 7 · pool 2% · market #1scr#8
  2. 1TROPHY HUSBAND (USA) (5)LUIS NEGRON · JAY P. BERNARDINI · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2JOHNNY LIES (USA) (6)ERIK BARBARAN · ANTHONY FARRIOR · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3PROBABLY (USA) (7)GERMAN TERRAZA · KELLI MARTINEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4D D'S LEGACY (USA) (8)DAVID J. HALDAR · KELLI MARTINEZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5A BIT OF CAPTAIN (USA) (3)JEFFERSON SKERRETT · JEFFREY SKERRETT · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 6SAINT CLOUD (USA) (9)HUMBERTO HALDAR · IVAN CALDERON · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 8UNION SWAG (USA) (2)DESHAWN L. PARKER · GARY L. JOHNSON · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 9LEO'S LEGACY (USA) (1)LUIS RAUL RIVERA · JEFFREY A. RADOSEVICH · draw 9 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99
  10. 10GUNN'S ROAR (USA) (4)JOSE A. BRACHO · JEFFREY A. RADOSEVICH · draw 10 · pool — · market #10+0.0#99

Race 2 · Mahoning Valley · 6 runners

Thin form
8f Dirt · Allowance, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
1The pickSUZIE Q'S SISTER (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 10.1% · LUIS ALBERTO BATISTA
2Next bestBEND MY EAR (USA) (3)pool 0% · model 0.0% · MAURO CEDILLO

SUZIE Q'S SISTER (USA) (Koşmaz) (1) is the pick: model 10% against a 0% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +10.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

BEND MY EAR (USA) (3) (2) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1SUZIE Q'S SISTER (USA)LUIS ALBERTO BATISTA · JASON DACOSTA · draw 1 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 2BEND MY EAR (USA) (3)MAURO CEDILLO · DAVID WOLOCHUK · draw 2 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 3HAPPY MATCH (USA) (2)ERIK BARBARAN · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 3 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 4ELECTA (USA) (1)CHELSEY KEISER · DAVID WOLOCHUK · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 5LADY MIDSHIPMAN (USA) (5)JEROME J. INNIS · JASON DACOSTA · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6DREAMWIFEDREAMLIFE (USA) (4)BAILEY WEATHERLY · ERIC R. REED · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99

Race 3 · Mahoning Valley · 6 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 6 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4ACCONA (USA)LUIS ALBERTO BATISTA · NERY ALVAREZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #1scr#4
  2. 1BIG LUCKY (USA) (5)GERARDO CORRALES · NESTOR R. RIVERA · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2REAL NAUGHTY (USA) (3)MAURO CEDILLO · ROBERT C. CLINE · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3LUCKY JEREMY (USA) (1)JEFFERSON SKERRETT · CARYN VECCHIO · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5SWEEPING GIANT (USA) (4)JASON SIMPSON · RICARDO BAILEY · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6ST. LOUIE LOUIE (USA) (2)RICARDO FELICIANO · BENNY R. FELICIANO · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99

Race 4 · Mahoning Valley · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 9CLAY SOLDIER (USA)BRANDON TAPARA · JAY P. BERNARDINI · draw 9 · pool — · market #1scr#1
  2. 1BO RUNKLE (USA) (6)ALEJANDRO GOMEZ, JR. · MANUEL VLAUN · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2POUNDS IN TOWN (USA) (5)VICTOR R. FERNANDEZ · REY JUAREZ-MENDOZA · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3THEE NEW BEGINNING (USA) (2)JEFFERSON SKERRETT · MANUEL VLAUN · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4MALI BALI (USA) (3)DAVID J. HALDAR · SAUL M. MORALES · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5MISS FOXANN (USA) (8)CHELSEY KEISER · JULIE A. PAPPADA · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6HOLIDAY LIGHTS (USA) (4)JOE STOKES · SAUL M. MORALES · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 7TIZZY JOJO (USA) (7)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · GARY L. JOHNSON · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 8WE'LL DO IT LIVE (USA) (1)JOSE A. BRACHO · SHANE MEYERS · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 5 · Mahoning Valley · 11 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 11 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2UR FABULOUS (USA)BRANDON TAPARA · JAY P. BERNARDINI · draw 2 · pool — · market #1scr#1
  2. 1GLAD VON D (USA) (10)GERMAN TERRAZA · KELLI MARTINEZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 3SHILOH (USA) (7)JEFFERSON SKERRETT · MANUEL VLAUN · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 4CONSTANT CHATTER (USA) (3)YARMARIE L. CORREA · LARRY E. SMITH · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5MARY KATHERINE (USA) (5)JASON SIMPSON · MICHELLE WINTERS · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6MISS QUEUE (USA) (6)DESHAWN L. PARKER · JAY P. BERNARDINI · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7STARLIT SOFI (USA) (2)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · KELLI MARTINEZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8VERONICAFORTHEWIN (USA) (1)RICARDO FELICIANO · ROBIN SCHUSTER · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 9YALORDE (USA) (9)JOSE A. BRACHO · REY JUAREZ-MENDOZA · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 10LITTLE VALUE ADDED (USA) (4)ERIK BARBARAN · SHANE MEYERS · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 11NEBLINA (USA) (8)DAVID J. HALDAR · RODNEY C. FAULKNER · draw 11 · pool — · market #11—#99

Race 6 · Mahoning Valley · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4ZIMBA WARRIOR (USA)YARMARIE L. CORREA · DAVID KIRK, JR. · draw 4 · pool — · market #1scr#5
  2. 1I'LL FIGURE IT OUT (USA)ERIK BARBARAN · JEFFREY SKERRETT · draw 1 · pool — · market #2scr#8
  3. 2QUARANTINO (USA) (5)JEFFERSON SKERRETT · JEFFREY SKERRETT · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3DADDY JUSTIFY (USA) (3)DESHAWN L. PARKER · JOHANNA URIETA · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5GAME BOY BENNY (USA) (7)BRANDON TAPARA · JAY P. BERNARDINI · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6FLORIDA GATOR (USA) (6)GERARDO CORRALES · JOHANNA URIETA · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7AYE AYE SIR (CAN) (1)JOE STOKES · LOREN HUEPENBECKER · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8STAR WEAVER (USA) (8)HUMBERTO HALDAR · AMY SONDEJ · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 9TODDCHERO (USA) (2)RICARDO FELICIANO · BENNY R. FELICIANO · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 10SIMPLY VALID (USA) (4)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · JOSE ATALA · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#99

Race 8 · Mahoning Valley · 11 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Maiden · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 11 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6LUCY'S FIRST SONG (USA)JASON SIMPSON · JOSHUA LANGLEY · draw 6 · pool — · market #1scr#6
  2. 5AIR RAID (USA)MIA NICHOLLS · DARRAGH HOLDEN · draw 5 · pool — · market #2scr#7
  3. 1SAME STRIKE (USA) (8)YARMARIE L. CORREA · WILLIAM R. HELMBRECHT · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 2REMIX FROM PHOENIX (USA) (3)ANGEL I. DIAZ · JOSHUA LANGLEY · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 3BAY JA BLUE (USA) (2)MAURO CEDILLO · JACINTO LOPEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 4MEADOW DEVIL (USA) (9)DAVID J. HALDAR · LOREN HUEPENBECKER · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7CLEATUS (USA) (6)ERIK BARBARAN · REY JUAREZ-MENDOZA · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8EVERYNOWANDTHEN (USA) (1)T. D. HOUGHTON · DANNY R. BIRD · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 9SPRING RIVER (USA) (7)ELIJAH GREENIDGE · RODNEY C. FAULKNER · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 10CANDYMAN ANDY (USA) (4)CHELSEY KEISER · TINA CASALINOVA · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 11RIVER CAPTAIN (USA) (5)JOE STOKES · JUSTIN RADOSEVICH · draw 11 · pool — · market #11—#99

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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