Race 3 · Horseshoe Indianapolispool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 1STRANGER'S CHURCH (USA)+18.218% · 0%
  2. 3WILLY'S IN CHARGE (USA)+17.718% · 0%
  3. 5LARGE POUR (USA)+16.917% · 0%
  4. 6ZAPPINIT (USA)+16.817% · 0%
  5. 2TAIL GUNNER (USA)-84.316% · 100%
  6. 4MIKE'S CYCLONE (USA)+14.715% · 0%
STRANGER'S CHURCH (USA) is the pick: model 18% against a 0% pool share · verdict ↓

See more in every US race

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

25 races today · 3 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Mon 28 Sep 2026 · 3 tracks12 usable of 25 races · model overturns the favourite in 4Written Mon 28 Sep 2026, 03:07 ET · permalink

1 of 25 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Mon 28 Sep 2026

25 races across Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Philadelphia. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Finger Lakes · 6 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
3The pickSPEEDSTRE (USA)pool 38% · model 34.9% · JOEL CRUZ
4Next bestWHITE SPORT COAT (USA)pool 28% · model 21.0% · KEIBER J. COA
6At a priceALLOFASUDDENLEE (USA)pool 0% · model 11.3% · JOSE BAEZ
Exacta box345Trifecta box3456Win3

SPEEDSTRE (USA) (3) is the pick: model 35% against a 38% pool share, 8 runs of US form on file, edge -2.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

WHITE SPORT COAT (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, ALLOFASUDDENLEE (USA) (6) carries +11.3 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3SPEEDSTRE (USA)JOEL CRUZ · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 3 · pool 38% · market #1-2.8#1
  2. 4WHITE SPORT COAT (USA)KEIBER J. COA · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 4 · pool 28% · market #2-6.7#2
  3. 5FROSTELLE (USA)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · CHRIS J. ENGLEHART · draw 5 · pool 24% · market #3-4.3#3
  4. 6ALLOFASUDDENLEE (USA)JOSE BAEZ · DAVID M. RIVERA · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+11.3#4
  5. 2MISSIONATTHEGLEN (USA)KEVIN NAVARRO · MICHAEL A. LECESSE · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+11.1#5
  6. 1HAMILTON'S REASON (USA)CHRIS RUSSELL · DEBRA A. BREED · draw 1 · pool 11% · market #4-8.7#6

Race 2 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
3The pickSCARLETT QUEEN (USA)pool 35% · model 28.5% · LUIS PENA
1Next bestALL FUN N GAMES (USA)pool 34% · model 23.4% · KEIBER J. COA
6At a priceRAHFEE TONALIST (USA)pool 0% · model 12.2% · JEREMIAS FLORES
Exacta box317Trifecta box3176Win3

SCARLETT QUEEN (USA) (3) is the pick: model 29% against a 35% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge -6.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

ALL FUN N GAMES (USA) (1) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, RAHFEE TONALIST (USA) (6) carries +12.2 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3SCARLETT QUEEN (USA)LUIS PENA · JOHN A. GRABOWSKI · draw 3 · pool 35% · market #1-6.5#1
  2. 1ALL FUN N GAMES (USA)KEIBER J. COA · KELLY LYNN DEITER · draw 1 · pool 34% · market #2-10.6#2
  3. 7EZRA'S JET (USA)WLADIMIR RENGIFO · RALPH D'ALESSANDRO · draw 7 · pool 26% · market #3-11.6#3
  4. 6RAHFEE TONALIST (USA)JEREMIAS FLORES · RICHARD SHAFFER · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+12.2#4
  5. 2FROGHOLLOWSUMMER (USA)STEVEN FRET · LISA A. REED · draw 2 · pool — · market #7+10.6#5
  6. 5JOYFUL DANCER (USA)KEVIN NAVARRO · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 5 · pool 4% · market #4+3.2#6
  7. 4JAYME'S TURN (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · LINDA RICE · draw 4 · pool 1% · market #5+2.7#7

Race 3 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
2The pickBUSTLING TOWN (USA)pool 36% · model 27.6% · REYLU GUTIERREZ
7Next bestGOING FOR GLORY (USA)pool 25% · model 22.0% · CHRIS RUSSELL
4At a priceDANCIN JANE (USA)pool 0% · model 13.5% · LUIS E. PEREZ
Exacta box275Trifecta box2754Win2

BUSTLING TOWN (USA) (2) is the pick: model 28% against a 36% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge -29.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

GOING FOR GLORY (USA) (7) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, DANCIN JANE (USA) (4) carries +13.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2BUSTLING TOWN (USA)REYLU GUTIERREZ · H. JAMES BOND · draw 2 · pool 36% · market #1-29.5#1
  2. 7GOING FOR GLORY (USA)CHRIS RUSSELL · WILLIAM H. BARTLETT · draw 7 · pool 25% · market #2-17.7#2
  3. 5BIG JACKIE (USA)SOFIA VIVES · MICHAEL S. FERRARO · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+14.8#3
  4. 4DANCIN JANE (USA)LUIS E. PEREZ · MICHAEL S. FERRARO · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+13.5#4
  5. 6PRINCESS AZARA (USA)J. M. ROHENA · TAMARA HOUSEL · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+11.1#5
  6. 3TENACIOUS CHILD (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · LINDA RICE · draw 3 · pool 1% · market #3+4.4#6
  7. 1GOOD MISSION (USA)JEREMIAS FLORES · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 1 · pool 1% · market #4+3.4#7

Race 4 · Finger Lakes · 6 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
1The pickZEEBEAR (USA)pool 28% · model 50.7% · LUIS E. PEREZ
5Next bestFREEDSDALE (USA)pool 0% · model 13.8% · KEIBER J. COA
4At a priceNOSTALGIA'S SMILE (USA)pool 0% · model 10.7% · MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR.
Exacta box153Trifecta box1534Win1

ZEEBEAR (USA) (1) is the pick: model 51% against a 28% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge -0.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

FREEDSDALE (USA) (5) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, NOSTALGIA'S SMILE (USA) (4) carries +10.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1ZEEBEAR (USA)LUIS E. PEREZ · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 1 · pool 28% · market #1-0.3#1
  2. 5FREEDSDALE (USA)KEIBER J. COA · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 5 · pool — · market #3+13.8#2
  3. 3SEAMS LIKE DESTINY (USA)REYLU GUTIERREZ · TROY SMITH · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+11.0#3
  4. 4NOSTALGIA'S SMILE (USA)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · TIMOTHY P. MURPHY · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+10.7#4
  5. 2AZ U CHASE ME (USA)STEVEN FRET · STACY TORELLI · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+10.5#5
  6. 6RAW COURAGE (USA)J. M. ROHENA · AADIL S. KHAN · draw 6 · pool 27% · market #2-45.7#6

Race 5 · Finger Lakes · 9 runners

Usable
8¼f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
3The pickDOHA DESERT (USA)pool 19% · model 26.2% · RAMON M. MULERO
4Next bestCRUISING CAT (USA)pool 18% · model 23.4% · OSCAR GOMEZ
2At a priceAMERICAN HALITE (USA)pool 0% · model 10.0% · STEVEN FRET
Exacta box347Trifecta box3472Win3

DOHA DESERT (USA) (3) is the pick: model 26% against a 19% pool share, 8 runs of US form on file, edge -18.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

CRUISING CAT (USA) (4) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, AMERICAN HALITE (USA) (2) carries +10.0 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3DOHA DESERT (USA)RAMON M. MULERO · JOSE MERCED · draw 3 · pool 19% · market #1-18.0#1
  2. 4CRUISING CAT (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · MATTHEW CLARKE · draw 4 · pool 18% · market #2-18.5#2
  3. 7FAST AMENDMENT (USA)J. M. ROHENA · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 7 · pool — · market #6+12.2#3
  4. 2AMERICAN HALITE (USA)STEVEN FRET · ILMAR LOAIZA · draw 2 · pool — · market #7+10.0#4
  5. 6BECK'S DREAMER (USA)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · JAMES S. ACQUILANO · draw 6 · pool — · market #8+8.3#5
  6. 5FLAT CAP (USA)LUIS E. PEREZ · JOSE MERCED · draw 5 · pool 3% · market #3-0.3#6
  7. 9ADDYSON'S DREAM (USA)LAIRD O. BAILEY · MATTHEW CLARKE · draw 9 · pool — · market #9+6.5#7
  8. 1THE BROWN EGG (USA)JOEL CRUZ · LISA A. REED · draw 1 · pool 2% · market #4-0.3#8
  9. 8LUCEO NON URO (USA)WLADIMIR RENGIFO · KATLYNN GUTTERSON · draw 8 · pool 1% · market #5+0.2#9

Race 6 · Finger Lakes · 8 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
4The pickWAR RUNNER (USA)pool 36% · model 43.1% · JOEL CRUZ
3Next bestSOLO STREET (USA)pool 0% · model 11.1% · KEVIN NAVARRO
8At a priceMAXIMUM WARRIOR (USA)pool 0% · model 8.9% · OSCAR GOMEZ
Exacta box437Trifecta box4378Win4

WAR RUNNER (USA) (4) is the pick: model 43% against a 36% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge -42.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SOLO STREET (USA) (3) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, MAXIMUM WARRIOR (USA) (8) carries +8.9 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4WAR RUNNER (USA)JOEL CRUZ · JAMES S. ACQUILANO · draw 4 · pool 36% · market #1-42.6#1
  2. 3SOLO STREET (USA)KEVIN NAVARRO · JONATHAN B. BUCKLEY · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+11.1#2
  3. 7IM GUNNA (USA)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · TROY SMITH · draw 7 · pool — · market #5+10.5#3
  4. 8MAXIMUM WARRIOR (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · JAMES S. ACQUILANO · draw 8 · pool — · market #6+8.9#4
  5. 5SPEIGHTFUL SAM (USA)CHRIS RUSSELL · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+8.8#5
  6. 6TEN RUN RULE (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · GLENROY BROWN · draw 6 · pool 5% · market #2-3.7#6
  7. 2LAST VINTAGE (USA)JOSE VENTURA · EDUARDO MAVER, JR. · draw 2 · pool — · market #8+7.6#7
  8. 1SHEA D VOTING (USA)JACQUELINE A. DAVIS · LINDA K. DIXON · draw 1 · pool 1% · market #3-0.7#8

Race 7 · Finger Lakes · 9 runners

Usable
8¼f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
9The pickFIERY HEART (USA)pool 36% · model 30.7% · KEVIN NAVARRO
7Next bestHEY TOBY (USA)pool 36% · model 23.7% · REYLU GUTIERREZ
1At a priceMR. EINSTEIN (USA)pool 0% · model 8.5% · JOEL CRUZ
Exacta box973Trifecta box9731Win9

FIERY HEART (USA) (9) is the pick: model 31% against a 36% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge -5.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

HEY TOBY (USA) (7) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, MR. EINSTEIN (USA) (1) carries +8.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 9FIERY HEART (USA)KEVIN NAVARRO · JONATHAN B. BUCKLEY · draw 9 · pool 36% · market #1-5.3#1
  2. 7HEY TOBY (USA)REYLU GUTIERREZ · GREGORY E. CHARLERIE · draw 7 · pool 36% · market #2-12.3#2
  3. 3TONY O (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · KATLYNN GUTTERSON · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+8.5#3
  4. 1MR. EINSTEIN (USA)JOEL CRUZ · NIRKA HUERTAS · draw 1 · pool — · market #6+8.5#4
  5. 4MAKAR (USA)WLADIMIR RENGIFO · ILMAR LOAIZA · draw 4 · pool — · market #7+7.9#5
  6. 8TAPIZAR'S TEMPER (USA)OLAF HERNANDEZ · RACHEL SELLS · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+7.6#6
  7. 5RETAIL MAN (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · MATTHEW CLARKE · draw 5 · pool — · market #9+6.7#7
  8. 2MAD MAGIC (USA)LUIS E. PEREZ · MICHAEL S. FERRARO · draw 2 · pool 14% · market #3-10.5#8
  9. 6WILD BANKER (USA)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · DAVID OYOLA · draw 6 · pool 14% · market #4-11.1#9

Race 8 · Finger Lakes · 9 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
2The pickDISCO DANCER (USA)pool 79% · model 33.4% · EMANUEL DE DIEGO
6Next bestDIGNIFIED RESPONSE (USA)pool 0% · model 11.2% · J. M. ROHENA
7At a priceVALIANT WARRIOR (USA)pool 0% · model 9.9% · OSCAR GOMEZ
Exacta box263Trifecta box2637Win2

DISCO DANCER (USA) (2) is the pick: model 33% against a 79% pool share, 13 runs of US form on file, edge -45.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

DIGNIFIED RESPONSE (USA) (6) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, VALIANT WARRIOR (USA) (7) carries +9.9 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2DISCO DANCER (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · MATTHEW CLARKE · draw 2 · pool 79% · market #1-45.6#1
  2. 6DIGNIFIED RESPONSE (USA)J. M. ROHENA · DEWIGHT J. WADAMS · draw 6 · pool — · market #3+11.2#2
  3. 3MONTAUK SURF (USA)KEVIN NAVARRO · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+10.3#3
  4. 7VALIANT WARRIOR (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · DEBRA A. BREED · draw 7 · pool — · market #5+9.9#4
  5. 8LAST DRINK (USA)JEREMIAS FLORES · RICHARD SHAFFER · draw 8 · pool — · market #6+9.8#5
  6. 9BURNING MUNNY (USA)NAZARIO ALVARADO · THALIA ARECHE · draw 9 · pool — · market #7+9.1#6
  7. 1NOT MY TYPE (USA)BEN S. JOSEPH · MICHAEL T. SABINE · draw 1 · pool — · market #8+7.2#7
  8. 4LILY'S ARMY (USA)STEVEN FRET · KATLYNN GUTTERSON · draw 4 · pool — · market #9+6.9#8
  9. 5WINSTON D (USA)LUIS E. PEREZ · RACHEL SELLS · draw 5 · pool 21% · market #2-18.7#9

Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 7 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
3The pickI'MALITTLETHIRSTY (USA)pool 27% · model 22.3% · MITCHELL MURRILL
6Next bestLUNA DIVA (USA)pool 20% · model 22.0% · RODNEY A. PRESCOTT
4At a priceSTARRY EYE JUSTICE (USA)pool 3% · model 7.7% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
Exacta box365Trifecta box3654Win3

I'MALITTLETHIRSTY (USA) (3) is the pick: model 22% against a 27% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge -4.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

LUNA DIVA (USA) (6) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, STARRY EYE JUSTICE (USA) (4) carries +4.7 points of edge from a 3% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3I'MALITTLETHIRSTY (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 3 · pool 27% · market #1-4.9#1
  2. 6LUNA DIVA (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 6 · pool 20% · market #3+1.7#2
  3. 5FOCACCIA (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · SCOTT D. MULLINS · draw 5 · pool 26% · market #2-5.6#3
  4. 2PETER'S DREAM (USA)MICAH MEEKS · JOHN HARAN · draw 2 · pool 20% · market #4-2.8#4
  5. 4STARRY EYE JUSTICE (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 4 · pool 3% · market #5+4.7#5
  6. 1INDIANA SMOKE SHOW (USA)IRVING MONCADA · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 1 · pool 2% · market #6+3.8#6
  7. 7UNBRIDLED SABBATH (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 7 · pool 1% · market #7+3.2#7

Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 6 runners

Blind
8f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 2 of 6 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 1FIRST LAUGH (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · BRAD H. COX · draw 1 · pool 35% · market #1—#1
  2. 4PRANK AT DAWN (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · BRAD H. COX · draw 4 · pool 32% · market #2—#2
  3. 3ESTA VEZ (USA)ALEX ACHARD · JUSTIN WOJCZYNSKI · draw 3 · pool 27% · market #3—#3
  4. 5KAKI (USA)YEDSIT HAZLEWOOD · JONATHAN THOMAS · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#4
  5. 6PRESS RELEASE (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · D. WHITWORTH BECKMAN · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#5
  6. 2THAT'S THE GIRL (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · ROBERT MEDINA · draw 2 · pool 6% · market #4—#6

Race 3 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 6 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
1The pickSTRANGER'S CHURCH (USA)pool 0% · model 18.2% · JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ
3Next bestWILLY'S IN CHARGE (USA)pool 0% · model 17.7% · ALBERTO BURGOS
6At a priceZAPPINIT (USA)pool 0% · model 16.8% · SANTO SANJUR
Exacta box135Trifecta box1356Win1

STRANGER'S CHURCH (USA) (1) is the pick: model 18% against a 0% pool share, 9 runs of US form on file, edge +18.2 points.

The pool makes TAIL GUNNER (USA) (2) favourite at 27%; the model rates it 16%, so we overturn the favourite.

WILLY'S IN CHARGE (USA) (3) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, ZAPPINIT (USA) (6) carries +16.8 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1STRANGER'S CHURCH (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · JOHN HARAN · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+18.2#1
  2. 3WILLY'S IN CHARGE (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 3 · pool — · market #3+17.7#2
  3. 5LARGE POUR (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #4+16.9#3
  4. 6ZAPPINIT (USA)SANTO SANJUR · EMMA JIMENEZ SANCHEZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+16.8#4
  5. 2TAIL GUNNER (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 2 · pool 27% · market #1-84.3#5
  6. 4MIKE'S CYCLONE (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · JOHN HARAN · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+14.7#6

Race 4 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 7 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Maiden · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
4The pickBASIL (USA)pool 0% · model 17.2% · DYLAN MACHADO
7Next bestRECOMPUTING (USA)pool 0% · model 15.1% · RODNEY A. PRESCOTT
2At a priceAUMOE (USA)pool 0% · model 14.5% · JOSEPH D. RAMOS
Exacta box476Trifecta box4762Win4

BASIL (USA) (4) is the pick: model 17% against a 0% pool share, 8 runs of US form on file, edge +17.2 points.

The pool makes MUSICAL CLOUD (USA) (1) favourite at 27%; the model rates it 13%, so we overturn the favourite.

RECOMPUTING (USA) (7) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, AUMOE (USA) (2) carries +14.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4BASIL (USA)DYLAN MACHADO · PAVEL MATEJKA · draw 4 · pool — · market #3+17.2#1
  2. 7RECOMPUTING (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · JONATHAN NANCE · draw 7 · pool — · market #4+15.1#2
  3. 6UNRESPONSIVE (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+14.6#3
  4. 2AUMOE (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · DAWN A. FONTENOT · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+14.5#4
  5. 5POWER DRIVEN (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+14.2#5
  6. 1MUSICAL CLOUD (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · ANDREW C. BROWN · draw 1 · pool 27% · market #1-37.0#6
  7. 3MY FRIEND WILSON (USA)HUMBERTO HALDAR · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 3 · pool 27% · market #2-38.7#7

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 9CE LA VI CHARLI (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 9 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 8CRICKENBERGER (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 8 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6WOODRUFF (USA)ABEL CEDILLO · LINDSAY SCHULTZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2RAZZLE RED (USA)YARMARIE L. CORREA · JAMIE L. GRUBBS · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 1POLKA POLENTA (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · RENE CAZARES, JR. · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 3NEVER REALLY KNOW (IRE)MITCHELL MURRILL · NORM W. CASSE · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 4NIXON'S TIME (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 10BEACH DANCER (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 10 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 5SURPRENANT COCCA (USA)ALBIN JIMENEZ · CLAUDE L. BROWNFIELD III · draw 5 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 7KAM'S ROCKIN GOLD (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · BRIAN L. SCHLING · draw 7 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

Thin form
8f Dirt · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 7 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
2The pickMY PAL PATRON (USA)pool 0% · model 16.3% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
8Next bestNORDIC PRINCE (USA)pool 0% · model 14.0% · AMIR MENDOZA
6At a priceHE'S SPUN TO RUN (USA)pool 0% · model 11.5% · SANTO SANJUR
Exacta box283Trifecta box2836Win2

MY PAL PATRON (USA) (2) is the pick: model 16% against a 0% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +16.3 points.

The pool makes CHIEF OF CHANGE (USA) (4) favourite at 4%; the model rates it 13%, so we overturn the favourite.

NORDIC PRINCE (USA) (8) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, HE'S SPUN TO RUN (USA) (6) carries +11.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2MY PAL PATRON (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 2 · pool — · market #2+16.3#1
  2. 8NORDIC PRINCE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 8 · pool — · market #3+14.0#2
  3. 3COMEONWITHIT (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+13.2#3
  4. 4CHIEF OF CHANGE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · GENARO GARCIA · draw 4 · pool 4% · market #1-87.2#4
  5. 6HE'S SPUN TO RUN (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+11.5#5
  6. 1TRICKED YOU (USA)DANNY SHEEHY · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 1 · pool — · market #6+11.1#6
  7. 5MO RAMBO (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · JUSTIN BAILEY · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+10.9#7
  8. 7RED CLAY RUNAWAY (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+10.3#8

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 12 runners

Usable
8½f Turf · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 12 of 12 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
1The pickSTAR SAVER (USA)pool 64% · model 45.8% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
7Next bestHANDSOME JIMMY (USA)pool 0% · model 6.9% · AMIR MENDOZA
5At a priceHURRICANE EXPRESS (FR)pool 0% · model 5.5% · ALBERTO BURGOS
Exacta box1712Trifecta box17125Win1

STAR SAVER (USA) (1) is the pick: model 46% against a 64% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -18.2 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

HANDSOME JIMMY (USA) (7) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, HURRICANE EXPRESS (FR) (5) carries +5.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1STAR SAVER (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · AARON M. WEST · draw 1 · pool 64% · market #1-18.2#1
  2. 7HANDSOME JIMMY (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · MICHAEL J. MAKER · draw 7 · pool — · market #4+6.9#2
  3. 12RUM ROCK (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · BENTLEY COMBS · draw 12 · pool — · market #5+5.6#3
  4. 5HURRICANE EXPRESS (FR)ALBERTO BURGOS · CHERYL WINEBAUGH · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+5.5#4
  5. 3WEEKEND REVEILLE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · WILLIAM E. GALLAGHER · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+5.5#5
  6. 10THE BLUE FACTOR (USA)CARLOS MONTALVO · MICHELLE NIHEI · draw 10 · pool — · market #8+5.3#6
  7. 11CHATTERFIELD (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · KARA LIN MCGUIRE · draw 11 · pool — · market #9+5.3#7
  8. 2ZUN REYDER (USA)SANTO SANJUR · MICHELLE NIHEI · draw 2 · pool — · market #10+5.3#8
  9. 6AL AMJAAD (USA)ADAM BESCHIZZA · DESTIN G. HEATH · draw 6 · pool — · market #11+5.2#9
  10. 4QUIET EMPIRE (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · MARY LESTINGI · draw 4 · pool — · market #12+5.0#10
  11. 9AIN'T DERE NO MO (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · KINNON LAROSE · draw 9 · pool 18% · market #2-15.7#11
  12. 8PLAYONWORDS (USA)ALEX ACHARD · KARYN WITTEK · draw 8 · pool 18% · market #3-15.7#12

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

Thin form
8f Turf · Maiden · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
4The pickPRINCE OF GRACE (USA)pool 36% · model 53.4% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
5Next bestSTEEL GOLDEN (USA)pool 0% · model 7.9% · EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL
2At a priceBLAZY (USA)pool 0% · model 6.7% · JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR
Exacta box458Trifecta box4582Win4

PRINCE OF GRACE (USA) (4) is the pick: model 53% against a 36% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +17.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

STEEL GOLDEN (USA) (5) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, BLAZY (USA) (2) carries +6.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4PRINCE OF GRACE (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · BRAD H. COX · draw 4 · pool 36% · market #1+17.4#1
  2. 5STEEL GOLDEN (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · AARON M. WEST · draw 5 · pool — · market #4+7.9#2
  3. 8SHAPKA (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · BRIAN WILLIAMSON · draw 8 · pool — · market #5+7.5#3
  4. 2BLAZY (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · RON THOMPSON · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+6.7#4
  5. 1NAYAK (IRE)MIA NICHOLLS · MARCELINO TORRES · draw 1 · pool — · market #7+6.5#5
  6. 7SLIP STRIKE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · DARRIN MILLER · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+6.4#6
  7. 6TITAN KING (USA)KEITH J. ASMUSSEN · RON MOQUETT · draw 6 · pool — · market #9+6.1#7
  8. 3HOSS N BOSS (USA)ALEX ACHARD · ETHAN W. WEST · draw 3 · pool 32% · market #2-28.7#8
  9. 9DON'T U SHUSH ME (USA)SANTO SANJUR · LON WIGGINS · draw 9 · pool 32% · market #3-29.8#9

Race 1 · Philadelphia · 8 runners

Thin form
6½f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
7The pickREELIN N DEALIN (PA)pool 34% · model 30.2% · NOEL HERMAN
4Next bestBOURBON AFICIONADO (MD)pool 25% · model 20.8% · JEAN AGUILAR
1At a priceCASSATION (NJ)pool 0% · model 10.1% · ELISEO RUIZ
Exacta box745Trifecta box7451Win7

REELIN N DEALIN (PA) (7) is the pick: model 30% against a 34% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -3.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

BOURBON AFICIONADO (MD) (4) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, CASSATION (NJ) (1) carries +10.1 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7REELIN N DEALIN (PA)NOEL HERMAN · RICHARD VEGA · draw 7 · pool 34% · market #1-3.8#1
  2. 4BOURBON AFICIONADO (MD)JEAN AGUILAR · MIGUEL PENALOZA · draw 4 · pool 25% · market #2-4.2#2
  3. 5WHAT IT TIZ (KY)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · ALEXANDER MARTINEZ · draw 5 · pool 22% · market #3-7.1#3
  4. 1CASSATION (NJ)ELISEO RUIZ · WAYNE POTTS · draw 1 · pool — · market #6+10.1#4
  5. 6ONLYGODCANJUDGEME (KY)YAN RODRIGUEZ · URIAH ST LEWIS · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+8.8#5
  6. 8CELESTIAL DARK (KY)PATRICK HENRY, JR · JOSE G GONZALEZ-MILIAN · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+8.4#6
  7. 3LEX (PA)MELVIS GONZALEZ · JUAN CARLOS GUERRERO · draw 3 · pool 11% · market #4-6.7#7
  8. 2STARLORD (PA)LUIS M OCASIO · RUPERTO A PEREZ · draw 2 · pool 8% · market #5-5.3#8

Race 2 · Philadelphia · 8 runners

Blind
8¼f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 8 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 4FINAL JOKE (KY)MAGGLIO SANCHEZ · ANGEL CASTILLO, JR · draw 4 · pool 28% · market #1—#1
  2. 6CHUCK'S LAW (KY)MYCHEL J SANCHEZ · MICHAEL V PINO · draw 6 · pool 16% · market #4—#2
  3. 5HEPHEPCUTDOWNNETS (FL)SILVESTRE GONZALEZ · TONY PEREZ FLORES · draw 5 · pool 18% · market #3—#3
  4. 7CENTAUR CENTRAL (NY)ANGEL CASTILLO · JOSE G GONZALEZ-MILIAN · draw 7 · pool 16% · market #5—#4
  5. 2GRANDE FELINO (NY)SEBASTIAN ORELLANA · TREVOR GALLIMORE · draw 2 · pool 19% · market #2—#5
  6. 8WILL'S MUSIC (KY)JOEZER RANGEL · JENNIFER B SHAW · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#6
  7. 1WHOOSH (PA)PATRICK HENRY, JR · EMMANUEL TZORTZAKIS · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#7
  8. 3NO MOR STONES (MD)JEAN AGUILAR · MIGUEL PENALOZA · draw 3 · pool 3% · market #6—#8

Race 3 · Philadelphia · 6 runners

Thin form
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
2The pickMAY MISCHIEF (KY)pool 78% · model 50.1% · BRYAN L TORRES
4Next bestTELEPHONE LINE (FL)pool 8% · model 16.0% · MYCHEL J SANCHEZ
5At a priceROSE OF SHARON (ON)pool 3% · model 5.9% · SILVESTRE GONZALEZ
Exacta box246Trifecta box2465Win2

MAY MISCHIEF (KY) (2) is the pick: model 50% against a 78% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge -27.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

TELEPHONE LINE (FL) (4) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, ROSE OF SHARON (ON) (5) carries +2.9 points of edge from a 3% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2MAY MISCHIEF (KY)BRYAN L TORRES · ELLIOTT SOTO-MARTINEZ · draw 2 · pool 78% · market #1-27.9#1
  2. 4TELEPHONE LINE (FL)MYCHEL J SANCHEZ · MICHAEL V PINO · draw 4 · pool 8% · market #2+8.0#2
  3. 6SUNLIT (ON)JEAN AGUILAR · RUPERTO A PEREZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+12.9#3
  4. 3MADDIE'S GARDEN (KY)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · CLARENCE B KING · draw 3 · pool 8% · market #3+2.2#4
  5. 5ROSE OF SHARON (ON)SILVESTRE GONZALEZ · JOSE G GONZALEZ-MILIAN · draw 5 · pool 3% · market #4+2.9#5
  6. 1MIKEY'S SONG (PA)SEBASTIAN ORELLANA · TREVOR GALLIMORE · draw 1 · pool 3% · market #5+2.0#6

Race 4 · Philadelphia · 7 runners

Thin form
9f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
3The pickTAVERN TIME (KY)pool 35% · model 48.5% · ANDREW WOLFSONT
5Next bestFULLY COMMITTED (NJ)pool 0% · model 13.6% · MYCHEL J SANCHEZ
2At a priceRUN CORY RUN (KY)pool 0% · model 9.7% · ANGEL CASTILLO
Exacta box356Trifecta box3562Win3

TAVERN TIME (KY) (3) is the pick: model 49% against a 35% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge -27.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

FULLY COMMITTED (NJ) (5) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, RUN CORY RUN (KY) (2) carries +9.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3TAVERN TIME (KY)ANDREW WOLFSONT · JACK ABRAMS · draw 3 · pool 35% · market #1-27.6#1
  2. 5FULLY COMMITTED (NJ)MYCHEL J SANCHEZ · ANGEL CASTILLO, JR · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+13.6#2
  3. 6FLUFF THE PILLOW (KY)NOEL HERMAN · JOANN BERTONE · draw 6 · pool 7% · market #2-4.9#3
  4. 2RUN CORY RUN (KY)ANGEL CASTILLO · ELI BETANCOURT · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+9.7#4
  5. 1RIVER'S GAMBLE (KY)PATRICK HENRY, JR · MARTIN THOMPSON · draw 1 · pool — · market #7+9.2#5
  6. 7FIRST TRUMPET (KY)JORGE A VARGAS, JR · SCOTT A LAKE · draw 7 · pool 2% · market #3+0.5#6
  7. 4RILEY'S ROCKSTAR (KY)DEXTER HADDOCK · SCOTT A LAKE · draw 4 · pool 2% · market #4-0.6#7

Race 5 · Philadelphia · 8 runners

Blind
7f Dirt · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 8 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 3RESPIGHI (PA)FRANKIE PENNINGTON · HUGO O PADILLA · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#1
  2. 4WAVE RIDER (PA)INOEL BEATO · T BERNARD HOUGHTON · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#2
  3. 6CODY PASS (PA)LUIS M OCASIO · MIGUEL PENALOZA · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#3
  4. 8INMATE (PA)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · SCOTT A LAKE · draw 8 · pool — · market #5—#4
  5. 2AU SOME WARRIOR (PA)NOEL HERMAN · ALEXANDER MARTINEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#5
  6. 1PARTY WITH SMARTY (PA)ABNER ADORNO · SUSAN L CROWELL · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#6
  7. 5CAPTAIN OATS (PA)JORGE A VARGAS, JR · LUIS RIVERA, JR · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#7
  8. 7SMOKED BOURBON (PA)ANDREW WOLFSONT · KATHLEEN A DEMASI · draw 7 · pool 22% · market #1—#8

Race 6 · Philadelphia · 11 runners

Thin form
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 11 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
10The pickLITTLE LANCE (MD)pool 19% · model 26.8% · ELISEO RUIZ
7Next bestCAPITAL CONQUEST (PA)pool 19% · model 20.9% · INOEL BEATO
8At a priceSKINNY JOEY (PA)pool 0% · model 7.0% · KENDRY RIVERA
Exacta box1072Trifecta box10728Win10

LITTLE LANCE (MD) (10) is the pick: model 27% against a 19% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge -13.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

CAPITAL CONQUEST (PA) (7) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, SKINNY JOEY (PA) (8) carries +7.0 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 10LITTLE LANCE (MD)ELISEO RUIZ · ALFREDO VELAZQUEZ · draw 10 · pool 19% · market #1-13.6#1
  2. 7CAPITAL CONQUEST (PA)INOEL BEATO · RICHARD VEGA · draw 7 · pool 19% · market #2-19.5#2
  3. 2ASMODEUS (KY)LUIS M OCASIO · RUPERTO A PEREZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+7.5#3
  4. 8SKINNY JOEY (PA)KENDRY RIVERA · CARLOS E CABAN · draw 8 · pool — · market #5+7.0#4
  5. 11ROMANTIC GAMBLE (ON)JOEZER RANGEL · J TYLER SERVIS · draw 11 · pool — · market #6+6.5#5
  6. 4LORD WINSALOT (PA)JEAN AGUILAR · MIGUEL A RODRIGUEZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #7+6.4#6
  7. 9AMAZING WOO (FL)BRYAN L TORRES · KATHLEEN A DEMASI · draw 9 · pool — · market #8+6.4#7
  8. 3YOUNG SQUIRE (PA)JORGE A VARGAS, JR · ESTEBAN PADILLA · draw 3 · pool — · market #9+6.3#8
  9. 6MALIBU WARRIOR (PA)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · JACK ABRAMS · draw 6 · pool — · market #10+6.2#9
  10. 5BIAGIO (PA)CAMILA HARGROVE · JORGE DIAZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #11+5.1#10
  11. 1NICOLE'S KING (KY)DEXTER HADDOCK · MIGUEL A RODRIGUEZ · draw 1 · pool 9% · market #3-18.3#11

Race 7 · Philadelphia · 7 runners

Blind
6½f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 7 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 3CULTIVATE (PA)MYCHEL J SANCHEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#1
  2. 6GUITAR MONEY (PA)INOEL BEATO · T BERNARD HOUGHTON · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#2
  3. 7WINNING TIME (PA)SILVESTRE GONZALEZ · KATHLEEN A DEMASI · draw 7 · pool 50% · market #1—#3
  4. 2CAPO (PA)ABNER ADORNO · JACINTO SOLIS · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#4
  5. 5DR. STEVE (PA)ANDY HERNANDEZ · MICHAEL M MOORE · draw 5 · pool 50% · market #2—#5
  6. 4BIG BOYS ANSWER (PA)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · HOWARD R BROWN, JR · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 1WINDSOR GOLD (PA)ELISEO RUIZ · MICHAEL M MOORE · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 8 · Philadelphia · 9 runners

Thin form
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
9The pickMORE THAN GRACE (PA)pool 33% · model 13.8% · MYCHEL J SANCHEZ
2Next bestKAPPA KAPPA (PA)pool 0% · model 13.2% · ABNER ADORNO
4At a priceJUMP A FOX (PA)pool 0% · model 10.6% · ANGEL CASTILLO
Exacta box926Trifecta box9264Win9

MORE THAN GRACE (PA) (9) is the pick: model 14% against a 33% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge -19.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

KAPPA KAPPA (PA) (2) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, JUMP A FOX (PA) (4) carries +10.6 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 9MORE THAN GRACE (PA)MYCHEL J SANCHEZ · MICHAEL V PINO · draw 9 · pool 33% · market #1-19.5#1
  2. 2KAPPA KAPPA (PA)ABNER ADORNO · ROBERT E REID, JR · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+13.2#2
  3. 6MISSY SIXTYSIX (PA)ELISEO RUIZ · MICHAEL M MOORE · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+11.1#3
  4. 5MARY Q (PA)ANDY HERNANDEZ · MICHAEL M MOORE · draw 5 · pool 33% · market #2-22.4#4
  5. 4JUMP A FOX (PA)ANGEL CASTILLO · TREVOR GALLIMORE · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+10.6#5
  6. 8DIVINE INTENTIONS (PA)FRANKIE PENNINGTON · J TYLER SERVIS · draw 8 · pool 33% · market #3-22.9#6
  7. 1CAROUSEL QUEEN (PA)JORGE A VARGAS, JR · SCOTT A LAKE · draw 1 · pool — · market #7+10.3#7
  8. 3ROCK ME GENTLY (PA)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · J GUADALUPE GUERRERO · draw 3 · pool — · market #8+10.0#8
  9. 7SHUBAGAIL (PA)DEXTER HADDOCK · RICHARD VEGA · draw 7 · pool — · market #9+9.7#9

Race 9 · Philadelphia · 12 runners

Thin form
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 12 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
11The pickDISCO FLASH (PA)pool 0% · model 10.7% · ELISEO RUIZ
3Next bestCRAVING CARBS (PA)pool 50% · model 9.6% · MYCHEL J SANCHEZ
8At a priceNOULIKEABOOK (KY)pool 0% · model 8.7% · ABNER ADORNO
Exacta box11310Trifecta box113108Win11

DISCO FLASH (PA) (11) is the pick: model 11% against a 0% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +10.7 points.

The pool makes CRAVING CARBS (PA) (3) favourite at 50%; the model rates it 10%, so we overturn the favourite.

CRAVING CARBS (PA) (3) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, NOULIKEABOOK (KY) (8) carries +8.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 11DISCO FLASH (PA)ELISEO RUIZ · HUGO O PADILLA · draw 11 · pool — · market #3+10.7#1
  2. 3CRAVING CARBS (PA)MYCHEL J SANCHEZ · MICHAEL V PINO · draw 3 · pool 50% · market #1-40.4#2
  3. 10NO MO MUFFINS (KY)CAMILA HARGROVE · ELLIOTT SOTO-MARTINEZ · draw 10 · pool — · market #4+9.3#3
  4. 8NOULIKEABOOK (KY)ABNER ADORNO · SCOTT A LAKE · draw 8 · pool — · market #5+8.7#4
  5. 9BROAD STROKES (PA)MAGGLIO SANCHEZ · RUPERTO A PEREZ · draw 9 · pool — · market #6+8.7#5
  6. 2SPOOKY GAL (KY)KENDRY RIVERA · EDWARD J COLETTI, JR · draw 2 · pool — · market #7+8.5#6
  7. 4IRACEBETH (PA)JULIO A HERNANDEZ · ELISHA PEREZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #8+8.1#7
  8. 5BRISCOE COUNTY (KY)BRYAN L TORRES · KATHLEEN A DEMASI · draw 5 · pool 50% · market #2-42.3#8
  9. 1IT'S A SHORE THING (MD)ANDY HERNANDEZ · MICHAEL M MOORE · draw 1 · pool — · market #9+7.7#9
  10. 7SILVER CITY KITTY (PA)JESUS M RIOS · ROBERTO J ROSADO · draw 7 · pool — · market #10+7.3#10
  11. 6GIRL DYNAMITE (FL)SEBASTIAN ORELLANA · MELECIO SALDANA GUERRERO · draw 6 · pool — · market #11+7.0#11
  12. 12WEST SIDE DIVA (PA)FRANCISCO MARTINEZ · HOWARD R BROWN, JR · draw 12 · pool — · market #12+6.7#12

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

Same engine, three racing worlds:TJK Tahmin · TurkeySha Tin More · Hong KongUSA Pick Day · USA