Race 8 · Mahoning Valleypool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 1OCEAN WINDOWS (USA) (2)+0.00% · 0%
  2. 2CREATOR OF MAGIC (USA) (1)+0.00% · 0%
  3. 3LU'S REDEMPTION (USA) (6)+0.00% · 0%
  4. 4NOT TODAY (CAN) (8)+0.00% · 0%
  5. 5SOCIALBUTTERFLYTAM (USA) (7)+0.00% · 0%
  6. 6OVERLY DRAMATIC (USA) (5)+0.00% · 0%
  7. 8WORK'N ON A BUZZ (USA) (3)+0.00% · 0%
SHE'S CRAFTY (USA) (Koşmaz) is the pick: model 10% against a 0% pool share · verdict ↓

Horseshoe Indianapolis, Mahoning Valley picks — Wed 28 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →

14 races today · 34 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 2 tracks4 usable of 14 races · model overturns the favourite in 1Written Wed 28 Oct 2026, 16:45 ET · permalink

8 of 14 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Wed 28 Oct 2026

14 races across Horseshoe Indianapolis, Mahoning Valley. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
3The pickTUN TAVERN (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 8.5% · ALEX ACHARD
9Next bestVERRAZANOINTHESKY (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 6.2% · JOHANIS ARANGUREN

TUN TAVERN (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) is the pick: model 8% against a 0% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +8.5 points.

The pool makes CHIRINGO (USA) (Koşmaz) (4) favourite at 1%; the model rates it 2%, so we overturn the favourite.

VERRAZANOINTHESKY (USA) (Koşmaz) (9) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3TUN TAVERN (USA)ALEX ACHARD · EUGENE S. VOSLER · draw 3 · pool — · market #2scr#5
  2. 9VERRAZANOINTHESKY (USA)JOHANIS ARANGUREN · JOEL MARTINEZ · draw 9 · pool — · market #3scr#7
  3. 4CHIRINGO (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 4 · pool 1% · market #1scr#10
  4. 5LUCKIES JOY (USA) (3)VICTOR LARA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 5 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 6GIMMEETHREESTEPS (USA) (1)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 2MR. SENSEI (USA) (5)SANTO SANJUR · REY HERNANDEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 10SAINT IN THE CITY (USA) (2)MITCHELL MURRILL · THOMAS L. VAN BERG · draw 10 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 8ASHRYVER (USA) (7)FAUSTO HENRIQUE DA SILVA · TENA BIRDWELL · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 1ME AND CHILI (USA) (4)HANNAH LEAHEY · ISRAEL J. GARCIA · draw 1 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99
  10. 7CAN OF CORN (USA) (6)JANN N. HERNANDEZ · MARCELINO TORRES · draw 7 · pool — · market #10+0.0#99

Race 3 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
8½f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2MOON LAW (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · BRIAN WALTZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #1scr#1
  2. 8COACH ALBERT LADY (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · RODOLPHE BRISSET · draw 8 · pool — · market #2scr#6
  3. 9FLASH WEAR (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · SARAH E. SHAFFER · draw 9 · pool — · market #3scr#8
  4. 7JUNTA (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · SARAH E. SHAFFER · draw 7 · pool — · market #4scr#9
  5. 6ROYAL JUSTICE (USA) (1)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · AARON M. WEST · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 1REINING FLOWERS (USA) (3)ALEX ACHARD · MICHELLE LOVELL · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 5RAZZLE RED (USA) (5)YARMARIE L. CORREA · JAMIE L. GRUBBS · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 4BIJOU BABY (CAN) (2)ALBIN JIMENEZ · JAMIE L. GRUBBS · draw 4 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 3ASTERIA (USA) (4)SANTO SANJUR · ANNA NAVARRETE · draw 3 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 4 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 13 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 1 of 13 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 13UNPRECEDENTED KID (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · ANTHONY F. CUNNINGHAM · draw 13 · pool — · market #1scr#7
  2. 4DRUNKBYSIX (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · DEVARUS DOUGLASS · draw 4 · pool — · market #2scr#13
  3. 9JORDAN SECOND DEAL (USA) (6)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 9 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 5EL ABEULO (USA) (4)ALBERTO BURGOS · JOHN HARAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 3JIMS PROMISE (USA) (7)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6CRAZY LUCK (USA) (5)VICTOR LARA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 11SIESTA SKY (USA) (2)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · ANTHONY F. CUNNINGHAM · draw 11 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 10ARGENTINA RED (USA) (1)JOSHUA MORALES · ANTHONY F. CUNNINGHAM · draw 10 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 2EYES ON EL PRADO (USA) (3)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · JOHN HARAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 7COOL TRIP (USA) (8)HANNAH LEAHEY · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 7 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 8GIN CLIFFORD (USA) (9)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 8 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 1JR PEGASU'S (USA) (10)IRVING MONCADA · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 1 · pool — · market #12—#99
  13. 12MR THUNDEROUS (USA) (11)MICAH MEEKS · MICHAEL WEAVER · draw 12 · pool — · market #13—#99

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
8½f Turf · Maiden · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7DANOWOODY STYLE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · MICHAEL P. PORTER · draw 7 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 5INDY FLYER (USA) (5)AMIR MENDOZA · ANTHONY E. GUIDA · draw 5 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 6TURN HIM LOOSE (USA) (1)CARLOS JIMENEZ · JUAN A. LOPEZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 8ENGINE SOL (USA) (7)SANTO SANJUR · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 8 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 2OFFICER GAMBILL (USA) (6)MITCHELL MURRILL · SHAWNA MARTIN · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 1REACHIN OUT (USA) (3)VICTOR LARA · DARLENE GREEN · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 9TAPITOUTONSUNDAY (USA) (4)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 9 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 4COVER ART (USA) (2)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 4 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 3KENOSHA KICKER (USA) (8)HANNAH LEAHEY · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 3 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
8½f Dirt · Stakes · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3GOLDWYN (USA)IRVING MONCADA · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#4
  2. 4RICH KINGDOM (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · DONNA RILEY · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#5
  3. 5JUSTHAPPYTOBEHERE (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 5 · pool — · market #3scr#6
  4. 1CHICORY BLAZE (USA) (3)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · ROBERT E. DOBBS, JR. · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 2TAKEITANDRUN (USA) (1)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6KINGSBURY ROAD (USA) (2)SANTO SANJUR · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7INCLINED (USA) (4)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

Usable
8½f Dirt · Stakes, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
3The pickLIL GIN N CLASS (USA)pool 28% · model 23.0% · EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL
10Next bestWATCHER (USA)pool 21% · model 16.2% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
5At a priceRICH IN FAITH (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 8.4% · AMIR MENDOZA

LIL GIN N CLASS (USA) (3) is the pick: model 23% against a 28% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge -5.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

WATCHER (USA) (10) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, RICH IN FAITH (USA) (Koşmaz) (5) carries +8.4 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3LIL GIN N CLASS (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 3 · pool 28% · market #1-5.0#1
  2. 10WATCHER (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · AARON M. WEST · draw 10 · pool 21% · market #3-4.8#2
  3. 9TEMPLE PAYNTER (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 9 · pool 17% · market #4-1.6#3
  4. 6ITZFOREVER (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 6 · pool 22% · market #2-6.6#4
  5. 5RICH IN FAITH (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · DONNA RILEY · draw 5 · pool — · market #9scr#5
  6. 1HOOSIER PROMISE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #10scr#6
  7. 2SCREAMIN NINA (USA)IRVING MONCADA · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 2 · pool 4% · market #5+1.0#7
  8. 8PAY ME LATER (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 8 · pool 3% · market #7+0.6#8
  9. 4KABOOM (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 4 · pool 4% · market #6-0.7#9
  10. 7SEEYOUINABIT (USA)VICTOR LARA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 7 · pool 1% · market #8+0.7#10

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 12 runners

Thin form
8f Turf · Allowance, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 12 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
10The pickSUSSUDIO (USA)pool 22% · model 22.8% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
2Next bestPLOT (USA)pool 18% · model 17.4% · JOSEPH D. RAMOS
1At a priceMAX (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 5.8% · SANTO SANJUR

SUSSUDIO (USA) (10) is the pick: model 23% against a 22% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +0.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

PLOT (USA) (2) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

For something at a price, MAX (USA) (Koşmaz) (1) carries +5.8 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 10SUSSUDIO (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · JEFF A. HILES · draw 10 · pool 22% · market #1+0.4#1
  2. 2PLOT (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · THOMAS DRURY, JR. · draw 2 · pool 18% · market #2-0.9#2
  3. 11FEELING BEACHY (USA)ALEX ACHARD · RILEY MOTT · draw 11 · pool 13% · market #3-0.0#3
  4. 3DERRY GIRL (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · DALE L. ROMANS · draw 3 · pool 12% · market #4-0.1#4
  5. 8TEMPLE TEMPTRESS (USA)ALBIN JIMENEZ · ETHAN W. WEST · draw 8 · pool 11% · market #5-2.5#5
  6. 1MAX (USA)SANTO SANJUR · JIMMY CORRIGAN · draw 1 · pool — · market #11scr#6
  7. 5MOTHER GREEN (USA)MICAH MEEKS · BRIAN KNIPPENBERG · draw 5 · pool 7% · market #6-2.2#7
  8. 7ZOOM ZOOM AYLA (USA)DECLAN CANNON · CONOR MURPHY · draw 7 · pool — · market #12scr#8
  9. 9DONNA STRADA (USA)IRVING MONCADA · TOMMY HUMPHRIES · draw 9 · pool 5% · market #7-1.5#9
  10. 12SURELY THIS TIME (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ETHAN W. WEST · draw 12 · pool 4% · market #8-0.7#10
  11. 6PURRING (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · SARAH E. SHAFFER · draw 6 · pool 3% · market #9-1.2#11
  12. 4DIVVY (USA)AGUSTIN GOMEZ · LUIS A. JURADO · draw 4 · pool 3% · market #10-1.6#12

Race 1 · Mahoning Valley · 6 runners

Thin form
8f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
6The pickELECTRIC MELODY (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 1% · model 3.4% · DESHAWN L. PARKER
1Next bestOH GLORIOUS DAY (USA) (4)pool 0% · model 0.0% · CHELSEY KEISER

ELECTRIC MELODY (USA) (Koşmaz) (6) is the pick: model 3% against a 1% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +2.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

OH GLORIOUS DAY (USA) (4) (1) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6ELECTRIC MELODY (USA)DESHAWN L. PARKER · DARRAGH HOLDEN · draw 6 · pool 1% · market #1scr#6
  2. 1OH GLORIOUS DAY (USA) (4)CHELSEY KEISER · IVAN VAZQUEZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2LADY JASPER (USA) (1)LUIS RAUL RIVERA · JEFFREY A. RADOSEVICH · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3OUR LAST SONG (USA) (2)LAUREANO SOSA · TIMOTHY E. HAMM · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4KERRI'S MIRACLE (USA) (5)DAVID J. HALDAR · IVAN VAZQUEZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5MOBIL CHIC (USA) (3)ERIK BARBARAN · RICHARD ZIELINSKI · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99

Race 3 · Mahoning Valley · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2HANDSOFFTHEGOODS (USA)LUIS A. HERNANDEZ · IRVIN MORENO · draw 2 · pool — · market #1scr#4
  2. 1VLADISLAV (USA) (9)JEFFERSON SKERRETT · JEFFREY SKERRETT · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 3ALL MY LIFE (USA) (2)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · CARYN VECCHIO · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 4AULD LANGE SYNE (USA) (7)MCKENNA ANDERSON · AMY SONDEJ · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5COLONEL POPPY (USA) (3)BRANDON TAPARA · ROBIN SCHUSTER · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6MAKING ME CRAZY (USA) (8)ANGEL I. DIAZ · JOSEPH P. MAHAN · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7DIGITAL FOOTPRINT (USA) (6)MAURO CEDILLO · CANDACE M. HUFFMAN · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8STAR ENTERTAINER (USA) (4)LUIS RAUL RIVERA · JEFFREY A. RADOSEVICH · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 9COASTERTOTHEMOON (USA) (1)DESHAWN L. PARKER · JOHANNA URIETA · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 10VERBIER (USA) (5)JOSE A. BRACHO · RICHARD ZIELINSKI · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#99

Race 4 · Mahoning Valley · 11 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 11 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4ORFANO (USA)JOSE A. BRACHO · RICHARD ESTVANKO · draw 4 · pool — · market #1scr#1
  2. 9JUDY'S COMET (USA)BRANDON TAPARA · RICHARD ZIELINSKI · draw 9 · pool — · market #2scr#4
  3. 7RUN VINICIUS (USA)ALEJANDRO GOMEZ, JR. · REY JUAREZ-MENDOZA · draw 7 · pool — · market #3scr#8
  4. 1KETTLE COALMINE (USA) (5)ELIJAH GREENIDGE · RODNEY C. FAULKNER · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 2SHELTOWEES BLING (USA) (8)ROLANDO ARAGON · MICHAEL EVANS II · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 3FAST AND FRIENDLY (USA) (3)JASON SIMPSON · JACINTO LOPEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 5MARQUITOS M (USA) (7)T. D. HOUGHTON · LOREN HUEPENBECKER · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 6LUCKY VICTOR (USA) (1)VICTOR R. FERNANDEZ · JOHANNA URIETA · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 8MERGER (USA) (6)CHELSEY KEISER · MARY L. HURLEY · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 10LITTLE SHANCE (USA) (2)RICARDO FELICIANO · JEVON D. CRUMLEY · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 11MR. BALI (USA) (4)DAVID J. HALDAR · SAUL M. MORALES · draw 11 · pool — · market #11—#99

Race 5 · Mahoning Valley · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7MISTER MOBIL (USA)T. D. HOUGHTON · RICARDO BAILEY · draw 7 · pool — · market #1scr#7
  2. 10GRAY TORMENTOR (USA)VICTOR R. FERNANDEZ · IVAN VAZQUEZ · draw 10 · pool — · market #2scr#9
  3. 1NEED TO KNOW BASIS (USA) (7)GUILLERMO RODRIGUEZ · NESTOR R. RIVERA · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 2THAT'S THE WAY (USA) (5)LUIS RAUL RIVERA · JEFFREY A. RADOSEVICH · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 3A PRAYER FOR KIDS (USA) (8)ERIK BARBARAN · LOREN HUEPENBECKER · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 4HITE (USA) (6)DAVID J. HALDAR · IVAN VAZQUEZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 5INDIAN FEVER (USA) (1)LAUREANO SOSA · TIMOTHY E. HAMM · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 6RED HEAD KID (USA) (2)DESHAWN L. PARKER · RICARDO GONZALEZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 8PAINT THE TOWN (USA) (3)JASON SIMPSON · RICARDO BAILEY · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 9SAMMY'S SMILE (USA) (4)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · RICHARD ZIELINSKI · draw 9 · pool — · market #10—#99

Race 6 · Mahoning Valley · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7I'LL STOP TALKING (USA)GUILLERMO RODRIGUEZ · MARIANNE MANNING · draw 7 · pool — · market #1scr#1
  2. 2GLEEFUL (USA)JOSE A. BRACHO · RICHARD ESTVANKO · draw 2 · pool — · market #2scr#2
  3. 8PROUD WORDS (USA)CHELSEY KEISER · RICHARD ZIELINSKI · draw 8 · pool — · market #3scr#7
  4. 1STEADY MY HEART (USA) (6)JOE STOKES · ROBERT C. CLINE · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 3CHARISMA IN MOTION (USA) (5)MAURO CEDILLO · CANDACE M. HUFFMAN · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 4GLITTER QUEEN (USA) (3)JEFFERSON SKERRETT · SAUL M. MORALES · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 5CAMPAIGN MISCHIEF (USA) (4)BRANDON TAPARA · JAY P. BERNARDINI · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 6HONOR AND OBAY (USA) (1)FERNANDO SALAZAR BECERRA · SAUL M. MORALES · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 9FLORIDA GAL (USA) (2)VICTOR R. FERNANDEZ · REY JUAREZ-MENDOZA · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 7 · Mahoning Valley · 8 runners

Usable
8¼f Dirt · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
1The pickWINTER'S GHOST (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 10.3% · DESHAWN L. PARKER
2Next bestROSE'S PEPINO (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 8.2% · BAILEY WEATHERLY

WINTER'S GHOST (USA) (Koşmaz) (1) is the pick: model 10% against a 0% pool share, 8 runs of US form on file, edge +10.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

ROSE'S PEPINO (USA) (Koşmaz) (2) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1WINTER'S GHOST (USA)DESHAWN L. PARKER · JAY P. BERNARDINI · draw 1 · pool — · market #1scr#5
  2. 2ROSE'S PEPINO (USA)BAILEY WEATHERLY · ROBERT L. INMAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #2scr#6
  3. 3PUFF'SMAGICDRAGON (USA) (4)LUIS RAUL RIVERA · JEFFREY A. RADOSEVICH · draw 3 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 4GENERAL ISSUE (FR) (6)LUIS ALBERTO BATISTA · CIRILO GOROSTIETA · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 5GHOST BIKE (USA) (3)JOSE BRACHO · GERALD A. CRAWFORD · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6RUNWITHHEART (USA) (2)ANGEL I. DIAZ · CARYN VECCHIO · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7DR SCHUSTER (USA) (1)BRANDON TAPARA · ROBIN SCHUSTER · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 8PENNY LOAFER (USA) (5)ERIK BARBARAN · ANTHONY FARRIOR · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 8 · Mahoning Valley · 9 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Handicap, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
7The pickSHE'S CRAFTY (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 9.7% · ANGEL I. DIAZ
1Next bestOCEAN WINDOWS (USA) (2)pool 0% · model 0.0% · SANTIAGO GONZALEZ

SHE'S CRAFTY (USA) (Koşmaz) (7) is the pick: model 10% against a 0% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge +9.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

OCEAN WINDOWS (USA) (2) (1) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7SHE'S CRAFTY (USA)ANGEL I. DIAZ · ROBERT GUCIARDO · draw 7 · pool — · market #1scr#5
  2. 1OCEAN WINDOWS (USA) (2)SANTIAGO GONZALEZ · KATHY JARVIS · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2CREATOR OF MAGIC (USA) (1)CHARLE OLIVEROS · ERIC R. REED · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3LU'S REDEMPTION (USA) (6)LUIS NEGRON · JAY P. BERNARDINI · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4NOT TODAY (CAN) (8)JEROME J. INNIS · KEVIN RAY · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 5SOCIALBUTTERFLYTAM (USA) (7)JOSE A. BRACHO · WILLIAM D. COWANS · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 6OVERLY DRAMATIC (USA) (5)BAILEY WEATHERLY · ERIC R. REED · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 8WORK'N ON A BUZZ (USA) (3)MAURO CEDILLO · ROBERT C. CLINE · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 9THE SWEATY FOX (USA) (4)JEFFERSON SKERRETT · JEFFREY SKERRETT · draw 9 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Belmont Park (1.21 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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