Race 3 · Finger Lakespool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 1ENTERPRISINGLY (USA)+20.520% · 0%
  2. 4IMMIGRATION LAW (USA)+18.118% · 0%
  3. 6ADMIRAL SOL (USA)-82.418% · 100%
  4. 2ALMA'S LAW (USA)+16.516% · 0%
  5. 5SERENA FLY (USA)+14.715% · 0%
  6. 3PENCIMA (USA)+12.713% · 0%
ENTERPRISINGLY (USA) is the pick: model 20% against a 0% pool share · verdict ↓

See more in every US race

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

16 races today · 4 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Tue 29 Sep 2026 · 2 tracks12 usable of 16 races · model overturns the favourite in 3Written Tue 29 Sep 2026, 03:07 ET · permalink

1 of 16 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Tue 29 Sep 2026

16 races across Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Finger Lakes · 6 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
4The pickBUSTIN AWAY (USA)pool 55% · model 36.2% · JOEL CRUZ
2Next bestPOMPOUS PRINCE (USA)pool 30% · model 28.4% · KEIBER J. COA
6At a pricePRINCE OF TRUTH (USA)pool 0% · model 11.9% · LUIS E. PEREZ
Exacta box425Trifecta box4256Win4

BUSTIN AWAY (USA) (4) is the pick: model 36% against a 55% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge -18.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

POMPOUS PRINCE (USA) (2) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, PRINCE OF TRUTH (USA) (6) carries +11.9 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4BUSTIN AWAY (USA)JOEL CRUZ · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 4 · pool 55% · market #1-18.8#1
  2. 2POMPOUS PRINCE (USA)KEIBER J. COA · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 2 · pool 30% · market #2-1.6#2
  3. 5HAY HAY HARRY (USA)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · TIMOTHY P. MURPHY · draw 5 · pool 12% · market #3+1.9#3
  4. 6PRINCE OF TRUTH (USA)LUIS E. PEREZ · RALPH D'ALESSANDRO · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+11.9#4
  5. 1CAPT JAX PARROW (USA)REYLU GUTIERREZ · LUIS GUTIERREZ · draw 1 · pool 2% · market #4+3.3#5
  6. 3CANYOUHEARMERUNNIN (CAN)JOSE BAEZ · DANA SAUL · draw 3 · pool 1% · market #5+3.2#6

Race 2 · Finger Lakes · 9 runners

Usable
8¼f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
4The pickJAYCE AND LIAM (USA)pool 29% · model 21.3% · J. M. ROHENA
9Next bestFASHIONABLE KITTY (USA)pool 21% · model 14.9% · JOEL CRUZ
3At a priceCHARDONNAY DERBY (USA)pool 0% · model 10.9% · KEIBER J. COA
Exacta box492Trifecta box4923Win4

JAYCE AND LIAM (USA) (4) is the pick: model 21% against a 29% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -7.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

FASHIONABLE KITTY (USA) (9) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, CHARDONNAY DERBY (USA) (3) carries +10.9 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4JAYCE AND LIAM (USA)J. M. ROHENA · CHRIS J. ENGLEHART · draw 4 · pool 29% · market #1-7.7#1
  2. 9FASHIONABLE KITTY (USA)JOEL CRUZ · RALPH D'ALESSANDRO · draw 9 · pool 21% · market #2-6.1#2
  3. 2JESSICA'S RIDE (USA)KEVIN NAVARRO · JONATHAN B. BUCKLEY · draw 2 · pool 18% · market #4-3.6#3
  4. 1SILENT MELODY (USA)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · CHRIS J. ENGLEHART · draw 1 · pool 9% · market #5+3.6#4
  5. 7MAIZE LOVED LAFFY (USA)JACQUELINE A. DAVIS · JOSEPH E. MARINO · draw 7 · pool 20% · market #3-8.1#5
  6. 3CHARDONNAY DERBY (USA)KEIBER J. COA · JOHN A. GRABOWSKI · draw 3 · pool — · market #8+10.9#6
  7. 6TROUBLER (USA)JOSE BAEZ · DANA SAUL · draw 6 · pool — · market #9+9.9#7
  8. 8PESADILLA CHANEL (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · NIRKA HUERTAS · draw 8 · pool 2% · market #6+0.9#8
  9. 5TOMAKI (USA)JUAN J. DIAZ · THALIA ARECHE · draw 5 · pool 1% · market #7+0.3#9

Race 3 · Finger Lakes · 6 runners

Usable
8¼f Dirt · Allowance, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
1The pickENTERPRISINGLY (USA)pool 0% · model 20.5% · KEVIN NAVARRO
4Next bestIMMIGRATION LAW (USA)pool 0% · model 18.1% · ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE
2At a priceALMA'S LAW (USA)pool 0% · model 16.5% · REYLU GUTIERREZ
Exacta box146Trifecta box1462Win1

ENTERPRISINGLY (USA) (1) is the pick: model 20% against a 0% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge +20.5 points.

The pool makes ADMIRAL SOL (USA) (6) favourite at 10%; the model rates it 18%, so we overturn the favourite.

IMMIGRATION LAW (USA) (4) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, ALMA'S LAW (USA) (2) carries +16.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1ENTERPRISINGLY (USA)KEVIN NAVARRO · JONATHAN B. BUCKLEY · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+20.5#1
  2. 4IMMIGRATION LAW (USA)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · RALPH D'ALESSANDRO · draw 4 · pool — · market #3+18.1#2
  3. 6ADMIRAL SOL (USA)KEIBER J. COA · TAMARA HOUSEL · draw 6 · pool 10% · market #1-82.4#3
  4. 2ALMA'S LAW (USA)REYLU GUTIERREZ · JOSE M. JIMENEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+16.5#4
  5. 5SERENA FLY (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · RONALD BREED, JR. · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+14.7#5
  6. 3PENCIMA (USA)JACQUELINE A. DAVIS · ASSAF RONEN · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+12.7#6

Race 4 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
1The pickMISCHIEVOUS TRICK (USA)pool 38% · model 52.4% · KEIBER J. COA
4Next bestLADY SERENITY (USA)pool 0% · model 12.7% · ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE
5At a priceZHEN LOU (USA)pool 0% · model 8.3% · EMANUEL DE DIEGO
Exacta box143Trifecta box1435Win1

MISCHIEVOUS TRICK (USA) (1) is the pick: model 52% against a 38% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge -18.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

LADY SERENITY (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, ZHEN LOU (USA) (5) carries +8.3 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1MISCHIEVOUS TRICK (USA)KEIBER J. COA · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 1 · pool 38% · market #1-18.0#1
  2. 4LADY SERENITY (USA)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · CHRIS J. ENGLEHART · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+12.7#2
  3. 3MARILYN'S NY PRIDE (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · RICHARD SHAFFER · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+9.2#3
  4. 5ZHEN LOU (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · RALPH D'ALESSANDRO · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+8.3#4
  5. 7LA INDECENTE (USA)WLADIMIR RENGIFO · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+8.2#5
  6. 6PRINCESS WADADLI (USA)CHRISTOPHER ELLIOTT · ROBERT N. FALCONE, JR. · draw 6 · pool 10% · market #2-12.3#6
  7. 2KAZ MUSIC (USA)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · TIMOTHY P. MURPHY · draw 2 · pool 6% · market #3-8.2#7

Race 5 · Finger Lakes · 9 runners

Usable
8¼f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
5The pickSO SPIRITED (USA)pool 18% · model 23.1% · JACQUELINE A. DAVIS
4Next bestFISCAL DRAG (USA)pool 16% · model 21.0% · LUIS E. PEREZ
2At a priceROCKSTAR CASANOVA (USA)pool 0% · model 10.9% · JOSE BAEZ
Exacta box546Trifecta box5462Win5

SO SPIRITED (USA) (5) is the pick: model 23% against a 18% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge -13.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

FISCAL DRAG (USA) (4) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, ROCKSTAR CASANOVA (USA) (2) carries +10.9 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5SO SPIRITED (USA)JACQUELINE A. DAVIS · LINDA K. DIXON · draw 5 · pool 18% · market #1-13.6#1
  2. 4FISCAL DRAG (USA)LUIS E. PEREZ · RALPH D'ALESSANDRO · draw 4 · pool 16% · market #2-11.6#2
  3. 6GRAND WARRIOR (JPN)KEIBER J. COA · ANTHONY ADAMO · draw 6 · pool — · market #5+12.6#3
  4. 2ROCKSTAR CASANOVA (USA)JOSE BAEZ · DANA SAUL · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+10.9#4
  5. 1SONG SO SWEET (USA)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · LEON J. MCKANAS · draw 1 · pool — · market #7+9.6#5
  6. 8REAL ELEVE (USA)JOEL CRUZ · KATLYNN GUTTERSON · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+8.0#6
  7. 9RENAISSANCE MAN (USA)WLADIMIR RENGIFO · KATLYNN GUTTERSON · draw 9 · pool — · market #9+7.3#7
  8. 7REDOUBTABLERIPKEN (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · MATTHEW CLARKE · draw 7 · pool 10% · market #3-14.2#8
  9. 3JOHN THE BAPTIST (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · ANGEL JR MONTANEZ · draw 3 · pool 5% · market #4-8.9#9

Race 6 · Finger Lakes · 9 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
5The pickMY ROYAL VOW (USA)pool 19% · model 25.3% · OSCAR GOMEZ
6Next bestGRAND LADY INDY (USA)pool 17% · model 21.4% · KEIBER J. COA
9At a priceBUSTINROXY (USA)pool 0% · model 9.3% · ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE
Exacta box564Trifecta box5649Win5

MY ROYAL VOW (USA) (5) is the pick: model 25% against a 19% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -11.2 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

GRAND LADY INDY (USA) (6) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, BUSTINROXY (USA) (9) carries +9.3 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5MY ROYAL VOW (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 5 · pool 19% · market #1-11.2#1
  2. 6GRAND LADY INDY (USA)KEIBER J. COA · SAMUEL MORALES · draw 6 · pool 17% · market #2-11.3#2
  3. 4BOOK OF WISDOM (USA)JOSE BAEZ · DANA SAUL · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+12.3#3
  4. 9BUSTINROXY (USA)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · ESKEI E. BEECH · draw 9 · pool — · market #7+9.3#4
  5. 1KAYMUS (USA)JEREMIAS FLORES · LINDA K. DIXON · draw 1 · pool 9% · market #3-8.6#5
  6. 7THIN LEGS (USA)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · JAMES S. ACQUILANO · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+8.4#6
  7. 8DIVA BANKER (USA)JOEL CRUZ · DAVID OYOLA · draw 8 · pool — · market #9+8.2#7
  8. 3RUBYS MISSION (USA)REYLU GUTIERREZ · LUIS GUTIERREZ · draw 3 · pool 5% · market #4-4.6#8
  9. 2T D MAGEE (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · RALPH D'ALESSANDRO · draw 2 · pool 2% · market #5-2.4#9

Race 7 · Finger Lakes · 7 runners

Usable
8½f Dirt · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
6The pickSENEGAL (USA)pool 43% · model 28.1% · REYLU GUTIERREZ
2Next bestBIG RICH (USA)pool 43% · model 26.3% · EMANUEL DE DIEGO
7At a priceERIC FROM MIAMI (USA)pool 0% · model 11.5% · MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR.
Exacta box624Trifecta box6247Win6

SENEGAL (USA) (6) is the pick: model 28% against a 43% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge -14.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

BIG RICH (USA) (2) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, ERIC FROM MIAMI (USA) (7) carries +11.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6SENEGAL (USA)REYLU GUTIERREZ · THOMAS MORLEY · draw 6 · pool 43% · market #1-14.9#1
  2. 2BIG RICH (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · TIMOTHY P. MURPHY · draw 2 · pool 43% · market #2-16.7#2
  3. 4BEACH INVASION (USA)KEIBER J. COA · M. ANTHONY FERRARO · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+14.0#3
  4. 7ERIC FROM MIAMI (USA)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · TIMOTHY P. MURPHY · draw 7 · pool — · market #5+11.5#4
  5. 5MATURATION (USA)STEVEN FRET · LUIS GUTIERREZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #6+9.1#5
  6. 3JANSSEN (USA)OLAF HERNANDEZ · JULIE PIERSON · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+8.6#6
  7. 1STOP THE SPREAD (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · RACHEL SELLS · draw 1 · pool 14% · market #3-11.6#7

Race 8 · Finger Lakes · 10 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
5The pickCONNECT THE BROCKS (USA)pool 43% · model 21.6% · JEREMIAS FLORES
7Next bestHARD PERFORMER (USA)pool 43% · model 20.2% · STEVEN FRET
10At a priceLIV HAS RIZZ (USA)pool 0% · model 10.0% · ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE
Exacta box574Trifecta box57410Win5

CONNECT THE BROCKS (USA) (5) is the pick: model 22% against a 43% pool share, 8 runs of US form on file, edge -21.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

HARD PERFORMER (USA) (7) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, LIV HAS RIZZ (USA) (10) carries +10.0 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5CONNECT THE BROCKS (USA)JEREMIAS FLORES · PAUL W. BARROW · draw 5 · pool 43% · market #1-21.4#1
  2. 7HARD PERFORMER (USA)STEVEN FRET · KATLYNN GUTTERSON · draw 7 · pool 43% · market #2-22.8#2
  3. 4PLEX (USA)JOSE BAEZ · DANA SAUL · draw 4 · pool — · market #4+11.1#3
  4. 10LIV HAS RIZZ (USA)ANDRE SHIVNARINE WORRIE · CHRIS J. ENGLEHART · draw 10 · pool — · market #5+10.0#4
  5. 9RESIDE (USA)MICHAEL A. DAVILA, JR. · TIMOTHY P. MURPHY · draw 9 · pool — · market #6+8.7#5
  6. 2I'M MISCHIEVOUS (USA)CHRISTOPHER ELLIOTT · KARL M. GRUSMARK · draw 2 · pool — · market #7+7.3#6
  7. 3ANMOLO (USA)EMANUEL DE DIEGO · NIRKA HUERTAS · draw 3 · pool — · market #8+7.3#7
  8. 6RAGTIME PRANKSTER (USA)JOHN C. BERRIOS · DONNA BIRETA · draw 6 · pool — · market #9+6.4#8
  9. 8JUST A GUY (USA)OSCAR GOMEZ · DONNA BIRETA · draw 8 · pool — · market #10+6.3#9
  10. 1NEW MATTHEW (USA)CHRIS RUSSELL · MICHAEL T. SABINE · draw 1 · pool 14% · market #3-12.9#10

Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 11 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 11 of 11 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
4The pickJUST LIKE MAX (USA)pool 22% · model 19.4% · MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR.
5Next bestMANSFIELD TIGER (USA)pool 17% · model 13.1% · ORLANDO MOJICA
11At a priceCOACH KNIGHT (USA)pool 0% · model 8.9% · AMIR MENDOZA
Exacta box457Trifecta box45711Win4

JUST LIKE MAX (USA) (4) is the pick: model 19% against a 22% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -2.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MANSFIELD TIGER (USA) (5) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, COACH KNIGHT (USA) (11) carries +8.9 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4JUST LIKE MAX (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · GENARO GARCIA · draw 4 · pool 22% · market #1-2.6#1
  2. 5MANSFIELD TIGER (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 5 · pool 17% · market #2-3.9#2
  3. 7GETTYSBURG ADDRESS (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 7 · pool 15% · market #3-3.0#3
  4. 2SCENIC JUSTICE (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · CHAZ RECHY · draw 2 · pool 15% · market #4-4.7#4
  5. 6SPEED BIAS (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 6 · pool 14% · market #5-4.2#5
  6. 11COACH KNIGHT (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 11 · pool — · market #8+8.9#6
  7. 3MOONRISE DRIVE (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · CHERYL WINEBAUGH · draw 3 · pool — · market #9+6.7#7
  8. 9CHEESESTEAK (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 9 · pool — · market #10+6.5#8
  9. 1MONTAUK POINT (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · BENTLEY COMBS · draw 1 · pool — · market #11+6.4#9
  10. 8LAVENDER EARL (USA)SANTO SANJUR · CARLOS RAMIREZ · draw 8 · pool 14% · market #6-7.7#10
  11. 10CRINGE (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · SCOTT D. MULLINS · draw 10 · pool 3% · market #7-2.4#11

Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 6 runners

Thin form
6f Dirt · Maiden · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
4The pickTHUNDER APPEAL (USA)pool 32% · model 31.5% · YEDSIT HAZLEWOOD
3Next bestBIG BOY THUNDER (USA)pool 29% · model 23.5% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
2At a priceMAYWEATHER (USA)pool 0% · model 12.2% · EDGAR MORALES
Exacta box431Trifecta box4312Win4

THUNDER APPEAL (USA) (4) is the pick: model 31% against a 32% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge -0.2 points.

The pool makes FINAL COUNTDOWN (USA) (1) favourite at 35%; the model rates it 23%, so we overturn the favourite.

BIG BOY THUNDER (USA) (3) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, MAYWEATHER (USA) (2) carries +12.2 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4THUNDER APPEAL (USA)YEDSIT HAZLEWOOD · WESLEY A. WARD · draw 4 · pool 32% · market #2-0.2#1
  2. 3BIG BOY THUNDER (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · JEFFREY L. GREENHILL · draw 3 · pool 29% · market #3-5.3#2
  3. 1FINAL COUNTDOWN (USA)ALEX ACHARD · ROBERT POMPELL · draw 1 · pool 35% · market #1-11.3#3
  4. 2MAYWEATHER (USA)EDGAR MORALES · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+12.2#4
  5. 6DARK BART (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · STEVE FRIDLEY · draw 6 · pool 4% · market #4+2.2#5
  6. 5MAHMOUD'S CLOUD (USA)SANTO SANJUR · EMMA JIMENEZ SANCHEZ · draw 5 · pool 1% · market #5+2.4#6

Race 3 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
2The pickSENOR JUSTICE (USA)pool 3% · model 40.1% · ALEXANDER CRISPIN
3Next bestPOWERFUL JUSTICE (USA)pool 0% · model 13.4% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
7At a priceBOX (USA)pool 0% · model 9.7% · JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ
Exacta box236Trifecta box2367Win2

SENOR JUSTICE (USA) (2) is the pick: model 40% against a 3% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -19.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

POWERFUL JUSTICE (USA) (3) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, BOX (USA) (7) carries +9.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2SENOR JUSTICE (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · KENIA HERNANDEZ · draw 2 · pool 3% · market #1-19.9#1
  2. 3POWERFUL JUSTICE (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 3 · pool — · market #3+13.4#2
  3. 6LEO'S BEETLE BOMB (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 6 · pool — · market #4+10.6#3
  4. 7BOX (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · SCOTT D. MULLINS · draw 7 · pool — · market #5+9.7#4
  5. 4LIL CHANCE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+9.4#5
  6. 8REACHIN OUT (USA)MICAH MEEKS · DARLENE GREEN · draw 8 · pool — · market #7+7.6#6
  7. 1MOUNTAIN MIKE (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · CARLOS RAMIREZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #8+7.1#7
  8. 5STARSPANGLED LOUIE (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · ANDREW C. BROWN · draw 5 · pool 2% · market #2-38.0#8

Race 4 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 14 runners

Thin form
8f Turf · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 10 of 14 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
8The pickDART TO NABERS (USA)pool 17% · model 9.1% · AMIR MENDOZA
13Next bestMAID OF STEEL (USA)pool 0% · model 8.6% · MITCHELL MURRILL
14At a priceBEETWOOD MAC (USA)pool 0% · model 7.7% · ALEX ACHARD
Exacta box8132Trifecta box813214Win8

DART TO NABERS (USA) (8) is the pick: model 9% against a 17% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -40.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

MAID OF STEEL (USA) (13) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, BEETWOOD MAC (USA) (14) carries +7.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 8DART TO NABERS (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOE SHARP · draw 8 · pool 17% · market #1-40.9#1
  2. 13MAID OF STEEL (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · AARON M. WEST · draw 13 · pool — · market #3+8.6#2
  3. 2OMI MARIA (USA)ALEX ACHARD · RILEY MOTT · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+8.5#3
  4. 14BEETWOOD MAC (USA)ALEX ACHARD · ETHAN W. WEST · draw 14 · pool — · market #5+7.7#4
  5. 3ZARZUELA (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · CAIO CARAMORI · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+7.4#5
  6. 7SEA OATS (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · JIMMY CORRIGAN · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+7.4#6
  7. 10SEISMIC SHIFT (USA)MIGUEL FERNANDEZ · IAN R. WILKES · draw 10 · pool — · market #8+7.2#7
  8. 1QUAINTRELLE (USA)ALBIN JIMENEZ · ETHAN W. WEST · draw 1 · pool 17% · market #2-43.0#8
  9. 9HOT DAWG (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANNA NAVARRETE · draw 9 · pool — · market #9+6.9#9
  10. 6DESERAY (USA)DANNY SHEEHY · PETER EURTON · draw 6 · pool — · market #10+6.8#10
  11. 5IGNORING ALANA (USA)DECLAN CANNON · THOMAS MOLLOY · draw 5 · pool — · market #11+6.3#11
  12. 4BOSS LADY KAR (USA)ADAM BESCHIZZA · S. JADE CUNNINGHAM · draw 4 · pool — · market #12+6.1#12
  13. 12EYAEL (USA)EDGAR MORALES · JOHN L. LANGEMEIER · draw 12 · pool — · market #13+5.8#13
  14. 11K P KWEEN (USA)JANN N. HERNANDEZ · MARCELINO TORRES · draw 11 · pool — · market #14+5.0#14

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 11 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 11 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
5The pickJORDANS DEAL (USA)pool 0% · model 11.6% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
1Next bestLUCKY N GOOD (USA)pool 0% · model 10.4% · AMIR MENDOZA
2At a priceAUNT LEILA'S SKY (USA)pool 0% · model 9.6% · JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ
Exacta box5111Trifecta box51112Win5

JORDANS DEAL (USA) (5) is the pick: model 12% against a 0% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge +11.6 points.

The pool makes TIMELESS JUSTICE (USA) (3) favourite at 3%; the model rates it 10%, so we overturn the favourite.

LUCKY N GOOD (USA) (1) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, AUNT LEILA'S SKY (USA) (2) carries +9.6 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5JORDANS DEAL (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 5 · pool — · market #3+11.6#1
  2. 1LUCKY N GOOD (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 1 · pool — · market #4+10.4#2
  3. 11PERNICIOUS (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · JOSE CAZARES · draw 11 · pool — · market #5+10.2#3
  4. 3TIMELESS JUSTICE (USA)HUMBERTO HALDAR · CHAZ RECHY · draw 3 · pool 3% · market #1-40.4#4
  5. 2AUNT LEILA'S SKY (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+9.6#5
  6. 10SHESHOIS (USA)ANGEL SERPA · FELIPE NICKEL · draw 10 · pool — · market #7+9.1#6
  7. 6LOVEITORLEAVEIT (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 6 · pool 3% · market #2-41.3#7
  8. 7OUR LADY DONNA D (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+8.4#8
  9. 4MISS CANDY POP (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 4 · pool — · market #9+7.9#9
  10. 8SASSY JULIA (USA)ALEX ACHARD · ROBERT POMPELL · draw 8 · pool — · market #10+7.2#10
  11. 9SOUND THE SIREN (USA)DANILO GRISALES RAVE · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 9 · pool — · market #11+7.2#11

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 11 runners

NO POOL YET
5f Turf · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 2 of 11 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 8PRACTICAL ROSE (USA)YEDSIT HAZLEWOOD · WESLEY A. WARD · draw 8 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1MY AWESOME GOLD (USA)CARLOS ERIELTUN FRANCA · JAMES K. CHAPMAN · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 7GEORGE OF WILL (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · NICHOLAS VACCAREZZA · draw 7 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 6CAPTIVATE (USA)VICTOR R. CARRASCO · BRIAN A. LYNCH · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5KENDOM (USA)JAMES GRAHAM · LORI HENDRICKSON · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 11THOUSAND BYUS (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 11 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 10MARTONE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOE SHARP · draw 10 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 3TIZNOT (USA)ALEX ACHARD · ISRAEL ACEVEDO · draw 3 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 9CORNBRED (USA)ORLANDO BOCACHICA · KARA LIN MCGUIRE · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 2BIG CASLON (USA)EDGAR MORALES · MICHAEL W. MCCARTHY · draw 2 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 4INTHEBUDGET (USA)DANNY SHEEHY · JIMMY CORRIGAN · draw 4 · pool — · market #11—#11

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

Thin form
8f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 9 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
1The pickRED CLAY HALO (USA)pool 33% · model 18.3% · RODNEY A. PRESCOTT
9Next bestNO CEILING (USA)pool 33% · model 17.2% · ANDRES P. ULLOA
4At a priceISOMETRIC (USA)pool 0% · model 8.5% · KEITH J. ASMUSSEN
Exacta box197Trifecta box1974Win1

RED CLAY HALO (USA) (1) is the pick: model 18% against a 33% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge -15.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

NO CEILING (USA) (9) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, ISOMETRIC (USA) (4) carries +8.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1RED CLAY HALO (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · ROBERT E. DOBBS, JR. · draw 1 · pool 33% · market #1-15.1#1
  2. 9NO CEILING (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 9 · pool 33% · market #2-16.2#2
  3. 7HOOSIER SURPRISE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 7 · pool 31% · market #3-15.1#3
  4. 4ISOMETRIC (USA)KEITH J. ASMUSSEN · STEVEN M. ASMUSSEN · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+8.5#4
  5. 6SECRETS OUT (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+8.3#5
  6. 8CAN'T FOOL APRIL (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · TERRY PHILLIPS · draw 8 · pool — · market #7+8.2#6
  7. 10BERTIE'S WORLD (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 10 · pool — · market #8+7.7#7
  8. 3GIOS GORGEOUS GIRL (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · RON D. HERRELL · draw 3 · pool — · market #9+7.5#8
  9. 2HOO'S A GOOD GIRL (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 2 · pool — · market #10+7.0#9
  10. 5SOVEREIGN STRIDE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 5 · pool 2% · market #4-0.9#10

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 11 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 11 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
8The pickOBVIOUS AGENDA (USA)pool 17% · model 15.1% · ALEX ACHARD
3Next bestWHAKAARI (USA)pool 15% · model 13.9% · ALBERTO BURGOS
5At a priceSCRIPTED LOVE (USA)pool 0% · model 6.7% · AMIR MENDOZA
Exacta box831Trifecta box8315Win8

OBVIOUS AGENDA (USA) (8) is the pick: model 15% against a 17% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge -1.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

WHAKAARI (USA) (3) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, SCRIPTED LOVE (USA) (5) carries +6.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 8OBVIOUS AGENDA (USA)ALEX ACHARD · MIGUEL ANGEL SILVA · draw 8 · pool 17% · market #1-1.9#1
  2. 3WHAKAARI (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 3 · pool 15% · market #3-1.1#2
  3. 1AMY EL (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · ROBERT C. STURGEON · draw 1 · pool 17% · market #2-3.8#3
  4. 2ONCE MORE (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · EDWARD K. ROGGENKAMP III · draw 2 · pool 15% · market #4-1.8#4
  5. 6WEALTH N TASTE (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 6 · pool 15% · market #5-2.3#5
  6. 11ROYAL TIARA (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 11 · pool 15% · market #6-2.4#6
  7. 5SCRIPTED LOVE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · PAUL MCENTEE · draw 5 · pool — · market #10+6.7#7
  8. 9RUB IT IN REBA (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 9 · pool — · market #11+5.9#8
  9. 4APPLE BISCUIT (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 4 · pool 4% · market #7-0.7#9
  10. 10JIDDY GO (USA)ANGEL SERPA · FELIPE NICKEL · draw 10 · pool 1% · market #8+1.1#10
  11. 7CHERRY PINK (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 7 · pool 1% · market #9+0.2#11

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

Same engine, three racing worlds:TJK Tahmin · TurkeySha Tin More · Hong KongUSA Pick Day · USA