Race 7 · Laurel Parkpool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 1FIGHTERTOWN (USA) (1)+0.00% · 0%
  2. 2ARTILLERY GUNNAR (USA) (4)+0.00% · 0%
  3. 3MR. SQUEAKY WHEELS (USA) (2)+0.00% · 0%
  4. 4MILES AHEAD (USA) (3)+0.00% · 0%
  5. 6SUPERSTAR SWANK (USA) (6)+0.00% · 0%
  6. 7ROBERT'S MOON (USA) (7)+0.00% · 0%
  7. 8ON THE LEVEL (USA) (5)+0.00% · 0%
CARAMBASO (USA) (Koşmaz) is the pick: model 9% against a 0% pool share · verdict ↓

Horseshoe Indianapolis, Laurel Park picks — Thu 29 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →

15 races today · 35 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 2 tracks5 usable of 15 races · model overturns the favourite in 1Written Thu 29 Oct 2026, 16:45 ET · permalink

7 of 15 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Thu 29 Oct 2026

15 races across Horseshoe Indianapolis, Laurel Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

Thin form
8f Dirt · Maiden · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
8The pickGUNS ALLOWED (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 12.7% · MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR.
7Next bestNONNO (USA) (3)pool 0% · model 0.0% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ

GUNS ALLOWED (USA) (Koşmaz) (8) is the pick: model 13% against a 0% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +12.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

NONNO (USA) (3) (7) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 8GUNS ALLOWED (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · BRAD H. COX · draw 8 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 7NONNO (USA) (3)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · NICHOLAS VACCAREZZA · draw 7 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 4BOLD STAND (USA) (1)ALEX ACHARD · EOIN G. HARTY · draw 4 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3YANCOPIN (USA) (2)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · SARAH E. SHAFFER · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 5QUIET EMPIRE (USA) (4)JOSE RIQUELME · MARY LESTINGI · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6JR BARTHOLOMEW (USA) (5)AMIR MENDOZA · JOSE CAZARES · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 1AIN'T DERE NO MO (USA) (6)ALBERTO BURGOS · EMMA JIMENEZ SANCHEZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 2PATTERN APPROACH (USA) (7)EVIN A. ROMAN · JOHN HARAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 8 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Maiden · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
6The pickBASIL (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 50% · model 31.4% · ORLANDO BOCACHICA
4Next bestJOHNNY RINGO (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 8.6% · JANE ELLIOTT

BASIL (USA) (Koşmaz) (6) is the pick: model 31% against a 50% pool share, 9 runs of US form on file, edge -18.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

JOHNNY RINGO (USA) (Koşmaz) (4) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6BASIL (USA)ORLANDO BOCACHICA · PAVEL MATEJKA · draw 6 · pool 50% · market #1scr#1
  2. 4JOHNNY RINGO (USA)JANE ELLIOTT · KARA LIN MCGUIRE · draw 4 · pool — · market #2scr#4
  3. 3STUCK IN PARK (USA) (6)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 3 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 2UP N UP (USA) (4)SANTO SANJUR · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 8MY FRIEND WILSON (USA) (2)AMIR MENDOZA · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 8 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 7MONEY MONDAY (USA) (5)ANDRES P. ULLOA · JONATHAN NANCE · draw 7 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 5DIAMANTE NEGRO (USA) (3)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 1DADE COUNTY (USA) (1)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · DAWN A. FONTENOT · draw 1 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 3 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 9LOOKATMYBUCKLE (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · BRIAN COOK · draw 9 · pool — · market #1scr#6
  2. 2READY TO DARE (USA)MIA NICHOLLS · FRANK K. HORVATH · draw 2 · pool — · market #2scr#8
  3. 4UNBRIDLED DEVINE (USA) (3)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 7ARTELLA (USA) (2)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · SHANNON MCGOVERN · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 3CALL ME ANGEL (USA) (1)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · GENARO GARCIA · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 1SWEET SAINT (USA) (4)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 8REIMAGINE (USA) (7)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · DANIEL SIMPSON · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 5WHEN'S FOREVER (USA) (6)IRVING MONCADA · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 6SWEET STAR (USA) (5)J.J. MEZA · ISMAEL BAHENA · draw 6 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 4 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 10PARKER (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · AGUSTIN GONZALEZ, JR. · draw 10 · pool — · market #1scr#8
  2. 4QUAINT (USA) (2)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 8ROCK CITY KID (USA) (6)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · SHANNON MCGOVERN · draw 8 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 7PRACTICAL JUSTICE (USA) (8)ALBERTO BURGOS · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 2TAINTED JUSTICE (USA) (4)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 9FLATWATER (USA) (3)EVIN A. ROMAN · ROBERT E. DOBBS, JR. · draw 9 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6GUNZO (USA) (1)BRODY MARTINEZ · DAWN MARTIN · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 1THE KING STINGER (USA) (7)IRVING MONCADA · RENE CAZARES, JR. · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 3TAMARAC SQUARE (USA) (9)HANNAH LEAHEY · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 3 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 5DEWEY OXBURGER (USA) (5)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · JAY J. HOLDEN · draw 5 · pool — · market #10—#99

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 8LONGSTRIDER (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 8 · pool — · market #1scr#2
  2. 10MADFERIT (USA)ALBIN JIMENEZ · KATHY JARVIS · draw 10 · pool — · market #2—#3
  3. 7TRUST THE WORD (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · GENNADI DOROCHENKO · draw 7 · pool — · market #3—#5
  4. 3KENWOOD STREET (USA)IRVING MONCADA · DARRAGH HOLDEN · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#8
  5. 5GOOD CIVILIAN (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · AMARA KRANZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#9
  6. 9FOREIGN MINISTER (USA)JANN N. HERNANDEZ · MARCELINO TORRES · draw 9 · pool — · market #6—#10
  7. 4WAVE WITH ENVY (USA) (3)WILLIAM ANTONGEORGI III · FRANK LUCARELLI · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 6CARDINAL UNION (USA) (4)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · THOMAS L. VAN BERG · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 2FROSTY BEER (USA) (2)ORLANDO BOCACHICA · PAVEL MATEJKA · draw 2 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 1CHATTERFIELD (USA) (1)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · KARA LIN MCGUIRE · draw 1 · pool — · market #10—#99

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 13 runners

NO POOL YET
8½f Turf · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 13 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 9AKKADIAN (USA)ALEX ACHARD · ETHAN W. WEST · draw 9 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 1RAG TREE (USA)TRAVIS WALES · HEATHER IRION · draw 1 · pool — · market #2scr#5
  3. 13THE TOWN TAP (USA)VICTOR LARA · EUGENE S. VOSLER · draw 13 · pool — · market #3scr#6
  4. 12PUNKIN BOY (USA)ANGEL SERPA · WILLIAM P. MCCALL III · draw 12 · pool — · market #4—#7
  5. 11LONE RETURN (USA)HAROLD JOSEPH ORTEGA · OMAR RAZVI · draw 11 · pool — · market #5—#8
  6. 3ORA CERTA (USA)ORLANDO BOCACHICA · EDUARDO CARAMORI · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#10
  7. 2ROADSWITCHER (USA)YARMARIE L. CORREA · CODY W. AXMAKER · draw 2 · pool — · market #7—#11
  8. 7ONLY FRANK KNOWS (USA)JOSE RIQUELME · JOSE PAYE · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#13
  9. 10VENENO FUTURO (USA) (5)ALBIN JIMENEZ · JAMIE L. GRUBBS · draw 10 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 4RULES OF THE ROAD (USA) (3)AMIR MENDOZA · MICHAEL J. MAKER · draw 4 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 8T V CHANNEL (USA) (2)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · DAVID JACOBSON · draw 8 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 5KICK A BUCK (USA) (1)DECLAN CANNON · JOE SHARP · draw 5 · pool — · market #12—#99
  13. 6AIRDROP (USA) (4)EVIN A. ROMAN · AMARA KRANZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #13—#99

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 12 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 12 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
4The pickCUPID'S RUNAWAY (USA)pool 26% · model 18.0% · JOSEPH D. RAMOS
3Next bestHAWKEYE (USA)pool 24% · model 17.1% · JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ
6At a priceSTARGAZZERS DREAM (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 6.7% · ALBIN JIMENEZ

CUPID'S RUNAWAY (USA) (4) is the pick: model 18% against a 26% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge -8.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

HAWKEYE (USA) (3) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, STARGAZZERS DREAM (USA) (Koşmaz) (6) carries +6.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4CUPID'S RUNAWAY (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 4 · pool 26% · market #1-8.0#1
  2. 3HAWKEYE (USA)JOSE RAMOS GUTIERREZ · JOHN HARAN · draw 3 · pool 24% · market #2-6.9#2
  3. 1ILLEGAL CONTACT (USA)IRVING MONCADA · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 1 · pool 23% · market #3-6.7#3
  4. 9HALFWAY JOKING (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · DAVID JACOBSON · draw 9 · pool 13% · market #4-0.1#4
  5. 6STARGAZZERS DREAM (USA)ALBIN JIMENEZ · MICHELLE LOVELL · draw 6 · pool — · market #10scr#5
  6. 8EL DANDI (USA)ALEX ACHARD · ISRAEL ACEVEDO · draw 8 · pool 6% · market #5+0.6#6
  7. 10DO YA WANNA DANCE (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · RANDY MATTHEWS · draw 10 · pool — · market #11scr#7
  8. 5MUNNY TOWN (USA)YARMARIE L. CORREA · YONI R. ORANTES · draw 5 · pool — · market #12scr#8
  9. 11RIGOBERTO (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · GENNADI DOROCHENKO · draw 11 · pool 4% · market #6+0.9#9
  10. 12SEMINOLE BEACH (USA)ISRAEL HERNANDEZ · ANTHONY BLEA III · draw 12 · pool 2% · market #7+1.1#10
  11. 2CUT GLASS (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · AMARA KRANZ · draw 2 · pool 1% · market #8+0.7#11
  12. 7WHISKEYINATEACUP (USA)VICTOR LARA · FERNANDO BAHENA · draw 7 · pool 1% · market #9+0.6#12

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
5The pickPALM TREE (USA)pool 48% · model 37.2% · EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL
6Next bestBERLONE (USA)pool 18% · model 14.0% · ALEX ACHARD
4At a priceQUIET MISCHIEF (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 6.4% · RODNEY A. PRESCOTT

PALM TREE (USA) (5) is the pick: model 37% against a 48% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge -10.3 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

BERLONE (USA) (6) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, QUIET MISCHIEF (USA) (Koşmaz) (4) carries +6.4 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5PALM TREE (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · CIPRIANO CONTRERAS · draw 5 · pool 48% · market #1-10.3#1
  2. 6BERLONE (USA)ALEX ACHARD · RAYMOND J. PAQUETTE III · draw 6 · pool 18% · market #2-3.8#2
  3. 7HYPERBOLIZE (USA)ALBIN JIMENEZ · ETHAN W. WEST · draw 7 · pool 15% · market #3-1.3#3
  4. 8MO CAN DANCE (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · BRAD H. COX · draw 8 · pool 5% · market #4+3.0#4
  5. 1PEZZONOVANTE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 1 · pool 5% · market #5+1.8#5
  6. 4QUIET MISCHIEF (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · ANDREW MCKEEVER · draw 4 · pool — · market #10scr#6
  7. 9KISS THE RING (USA)WILLIAM ANTONGEORGI III · JESUS CRUZ · draw 9 · pool 5% · market #6+0.8#7
  8. 2OH PLEASE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 2 · pool 3% · market #7+1.3#8
  9. 10MISSIONARY MAN (USA)GUILLERMO RODRIGUEZ · ANNA M. MEAH · draw 10 · pool 1% · market #8scr#9
  10. 3DOUBLEDOGJUSTICE (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · RAYMOND J. PAQUETTE III · draw 3 · pool 1% · market #9+0.7#10

Race 1 · Laurel Park · 14 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 14 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
13The pickSICILIAN DEFENSE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 6.1% · VINCENT CHEMINAUD
14Next bestELKO COUNTY (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 5.9% · JAIME RODRIGUEZ

SICILIAN DEFENSE (USA) (Koşmaz) (13) is the pick: model 6% against a 0% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge +6.1 points.

The pool makes CELTIC FLAME (USA) (Koşmaz) (12) favourite at 1%; the model rates it 1%, so we overturn the favourite.

ELKO COUNTY (USA) (Koşmaz) (14) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 13SICILIAN DEFENSE (USA)VINCENT CHEMINAUD · HORACIO DEPAZ · draw 13 · pool — · market #2scr#5
  2. 14ELKO COUNTY (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · WAYNE POTTS · draw 14 · pool — · market #3scr#6
  3. 11LUNDI LOOT (USA)CAMILA HARGROVE · LYNN A. ASHBY · draw 11 · pool — · market #4scr#7
  4. 12CELTIC FLAME (USA)JORGE RUIZ · JORGE DUARTE, JR. · draw 12 · pool 1% · market #1scr#14
  5. 1GREYLINE STATION (USA) (10)JEIRON BARBOSA · HAMILTON A. SMITH · draw 1 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 2CAPITAINE (USA) (3)DANIEL CENTENO · CATHAL A. LYNCH · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 3BAND ON THE RUN (CAN) (7)LEANDRO M. BRICENO · ALBERTO DELGADO · draw 3 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 4IRISH INDYGO (USA) (9)FOREST BOYCE · BENJAMIN W. PERKINS, JR. · draw 4 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 5PAID VACATION (USA) (4)JORGE RUIZ · TIMOTHY L. KEEFE · draw 5 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99
  10. 6UPSHOT (USA) (8)JEVIAN TOLEDO · KATHARINE M. VOSS · draw 6 · pool — · market #10+0.0#99
  11. 7LEAVE ME (USA) (5)VINCENT CHEMINAUD · HORACIO DEPAZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #11+0.0#99
  12. 8D'ORO CAVALLO (USA) (2)JULIO A. HERNANDEZ · MARK SHUMAN · draw 8 · pool — · market #12+0.0#99
  13. 9KUHNER (USA) (1)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · W. ROBERT BAILES · draw 9 · pool — · market #13+0.0#99
  14. 10LIMO (USA) (6)JOSE A. BATISTA · MICHAEL STIDHAM · draw 10 · pool — · market #14+0.0#99

Race 3 · Laurel Park · 16 runners

Thin form
9f Turf · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 16 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
15The pickCOMMON SENSE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 5.5% · MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ
8Next bestBREE COLA (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 5.0% · FOREST BOYCE

COMMON SENSE (USA) (Koşmaz) (15) is the pick: model 6% against a 0% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +5.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

BREE COLA (USA) (Koşmaz) (8) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 15COMMON SENSE (USA)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · A. FERRIS ALLEN III · draw 15 · pool — · market #1scr#6
  2. 8BREE COLA (USA)FOREST BOYCE · MILAN MILOSEVIC · draw 8 · pool — · market #2scr#8
  3. 9WOMAN ENTICED (USA)CAMILA HARGROVE · DANIEL G. EUBANKS · draw 9 · pool — · market #3scr#10
  4. 14MATADORA (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · RENALDO RICHARDS · draw 14 · pool — · market #4scr#11
  5. 16WANTING ATTENTION (USA)ANTHONY Y. NUNEZ · HUGO O. PADILLA · draw 16 · pool — · market #5scr#12
  6. 1FEATHER WISH (USA) (9)MARTIN CHUAN · DAMON R. DILODOVICO · draw 1 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 2STEPHANIE'S ROSE (USA) (10)RAUL E. MENA · SARAH WHITE · draw 2 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 3EXTRA SPECIAL (USA) (4)JEIRON BARBOSA · KENNETH M. COX · draw 3 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 4IT WAS ONLY A KISS (USA) (11)BRITTANY SCAMPTON · CHARLES A. FROCK · draw 4 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99
  10. 5MAGIC IN MY EYES (USA) (2)JEVIAN TOLEDO · AMELIA J. GREEN · draw 5 · pool — · market #10+0.0#99
  11. 6SEGER SONGS (USA) (1)JULIAN PIMENTEL · KERI BRION · draw 6 · pool — · market #11+0.0#99
  12. 7FOGG COVE (USA) (5)JORGE RUIZ · MICHAEL J. TROMBETTA · draw 7 · pool — · market #12+0.0#99
  13. 10DANCING DEANNA (USA) (3)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · ALISA BROOKE SARSON · draw 10 · pool — · market #13+0.0#99
  14. 11MENDED HEART (USA) (8)MATILDA BURNHAM · KEVIN C. BONIFACE · draw 11 · pool — · market #14+0.0#99
  15. 12ROASTED REDS (USA) (6)VINCENT CHEMINAUD · HORACIO DEPAZ · draw 12 · pool — · market #15+0.0#99
  16. 13TAI TAI RUSH (USA) (7)JULIO A. HERNANDEZ · JOANNE SHANKLE · draw 13 · pool — · market #16+0.0#99

Race 4 · Laurel Park · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
8½f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 8NEW PLEX (USA)JASMINE MCGUIN · LUIS FERNANDO GONZALEZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #1scr#6
  2. 1AMAZING BERNIE (USA) (2)PAUL A. LUNA · PEDRO NAZARIO · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2RAPIDITY (USA) (1)MARTIN CHUAN · JOANNE SHANKLE · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3SAGAMORE MISCHIEF (USA) (3)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4TOP BLOOD (USA) (4)EMANUEL ROSARIO · DANIEL J. MCKENZIE · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5EVERDOIT (USA) (6)YOMAR ORLANDO ORTIZ · LUIS FERNANDO GONZALEZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6PAYNTER'S PRODIGY (USA) (5)JATNIEL RAMOS · ENRIQUE HERNANDEZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 7STRATEGIST (USA) (7)RAUL E. MENA · RODOLFO SANCHEZ-SALOMON · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 5 · Laurel Park · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
8½f Turf · Optional claiming Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 12 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7BE BETTER (USA)SHELDON RUSSELL · BRITTANY T. RUSSELL · draw 7 · pool — · market #1scr#1
  2. 6MASAKADO (USA)DANIEL CENTENO · RICHARD P. SILLAMAN · draw 6 · pool — · market #2scr#4
  3. 3STANDPOINT (USA)MARTINA ROJAS · MURRAY L. ROJAS · draw 3 · pool — · market #3scr#6
  4. 1RIGHT TO WIN (IRE) (5)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · KATHLEEN O'CONNELL · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 2STOP WATCH (USA) (8)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · CATHAL A. LYNCH · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 4MAYDAY MALONE (GB) (1)VINCENT CHEMINAUD · MIGUEL CLEMENT · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 5SKY'S NOT FALLING (USA) (4)HORACIO KARAMANOS · MONICA MCGOEY · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8KORU (USA) (9)JEVIAN TOLEDO · LACEY GAUDET · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 9SAM STORMY (USA) (7)RONALDO RODRIGUEZ · MARIO ROBERTO LOPEZ · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 10PATRICK'S PROMISE (USA) (3)JORGE RUIZ · MICHAEL J. TROMBETTA · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 11CLOUD MUSIC (USA) (2)MADELINE ROWLAND · MICHAEL E. GORHAM · draw 11 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 12HYTECK PRINCE (USA) (6)JOSE E. VARGAS · JAMES L. LAWRENCE II · draw 12 · pool — · market #12—#99

Race 6 · Laurel Park · 14 runners

NO POOL YET
5½f Turf · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 14 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 14SHEAR MAGIC (USA)VINCENT CHEMINAUD · BLAKE KELLY · draw 14 · pool — · market #1scr#10
  2. 13NIGHT PREACHER (USA)EMANUEL ROSARIO · KELLY LYNN DEITER · draw 13 · pool — · market #2scr#13
  3. 1KOHOUTEK (USA) (9)FOREST BOYCE · SARAH WHITE · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 2NOAH CHANCE (USA) (4)XAVIER PEREZ · JOHN J. ROBB · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 3A G DIAMOND (USA) (12)RONALDO RODRIGUEZ · JOSE A. RAMIREZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 4NOBLE JON (USA) (1)HORACIO KARAMANOS · EMANUEL J. GERALIS · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 5DAUFUSKIE ISLAND (USA) (8)CARLOS EDUARDO LOPEZ · EMANUEL J. GERALIS · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 6CHUCK ADAMS (USA) (10)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · BRUCE M. KRAVETS · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 7THE BULLION BOMBER (IRE) (6)EMANUEL ROSARIO · CARLOS A. MANCILLA · draw 7 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 8BOAT'S A ROCKIN (USA) (3)MARTIN CHUAN · BRANDON L. KULP · draw 8 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 9FRYE ISLAND (IRE) (7)LEANDRO M. BRICENO · HASSAN ELAMRI · draw 9 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 10JOLLY BOSS (USA) (5)JEIRON BARBOSA · DAMON R. DILODOVICO · draw 10 · pool — · market #12—#99
  13. 11WARHEART (USA) (2)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · A. FERRIS ALLEN III · draw 11 · pool — · market #13—#99
  14. 12ISLAND D'LITE (USA) (11)JEAN GREGOR BRICENO · SAMUEL G. DAVIS · draw 12 · pool — · market #14—#99

Race 7 · Laurel Park · 8 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
5The pickCARAMBASO (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 8.9% · JOSE E. VARGAS
1Next bestFIGHTERTOWN (USA) (1)pool 0% · model 0.0% · JOSEPH ROCCO, JR.

CARAMBASO (USA) (Koşmaz) (5) is the pick: model 9% against a 0% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge +8.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

FIGHTERTOWN (USA) (1) (1) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5CARAMBASO (USA)JOSE E. VARGAS · ANTONIO MACHADO · draw 5 · pool — · market #1scr#4
  2. 1FIGHTERTOWN (USA) (1)JOSEPH ROCCO, JR. · JOHN E. SALZMAN, JR. · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2ARTILLERY GUNNAR (USA) (4)MATILDA BURNHAM · JOSEPH M. MURPHY · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3MR. SQUEAKY WHEELS (USA) (2)RONALDO RODRIGUEZ · MARIO ROBERTO LOPEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4MILES AHEAD (USA) (3)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6SUPERSTAR SWANK (USA) (6)EMANUEL ROSARIO · MICHAEL V. SIMONE · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7ROBERT'S MOON (USA) (7)LEANDRO M. BRICENO · JOHN E. SALZMAN, JR. · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 8ON THE LEVEL (USA) (5)MARTIN CHUAN · KERI BRION · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 9 · Laurel Park · 13 runners

Thin form
5½f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 1 of 13 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
3The pickBELLABLAZE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 18% · model 19.2% · SHELDON RUSSELL
4Next bestALMAS GONE GAMBLIN (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 6.6% · JAIME RODRIGUEZ
10At a priceNO ONE ELSE'S (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 5.6% · JORGE RUIZ

BELLABLAZE (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) is the pick: model 19% against a 18% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +1.2 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

ALMAS GONE GAMBLIN (USA) (Koşmaz) (4) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

For something at a price, NO ONE ELSE'S (USA) (Koşmaz) (10) carries +5.6 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3BELLABLAZE (USA)SHELDON RUSSELL · BRITTANY T. RUSSELL · draw 3 · pool 18% · market #1scr#1
  2. 4ALMAS GONE GAMBLIN (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 4 · pool — · market #2scr#5
  3. 9WEAVER (USA)JOSE A. BATISTA · CATHAL A. LYNCH · draw 9 · pool — · market #3scr#6
  4. 10NO ONE ELSE'S (USA)JORGE RUIZ · JORGE DUARTE, JR. · draw 10 · pool — · market #4scr#7
  5. 12GO NEW YORK GO (USA)CHARLIE MARQUEZ · HUGH I. MCMAHON · draw 12 · pool — · market #5scr#9
  6. 1OCCUPY (USA) (7)CARLOS EDUARDO LOPEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 1 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 2GYPSY LULLABY (USA) (5)LEANDRO M. BRICENO · JOSEPH M. MURPHY · draw 2 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 5SHE'S A TWELVE (USA) (6)MYCHEL J. SANCHEZ · KELLY J. BREEN · draw 5 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 6MAYBE GOLD (USA) (2)JORGE RUIZ · JORGE DUARTE, JR. · draw 6 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99
  10. 7WORRYABOUTYOURSELF (USA) (3)GAVIN ASHTON · SARAH NAGLE · draw 7 · pool — · market #10+0.0#99
  11. 8SCABIOSA (USA) (1)JOMAR TORRES · HUGO O. PADILLA · draw 8 · pool — · market #11+0.0#99
  12. 11MILLFORD LASS (USA) (4)MARTIN CHUAN · KERI BRION · draw 11 · pool — · market #12+0.0#99
  13. 13LAFLORDELACANELA (USA) (8)HORACIO KARAMANOS · TIMOTHY C. KREISER · draw 13 · pool — · market #13+0.0#99

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Belmont Park (1.22 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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