Race 1 · Delaware Parkpool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 5BEAUTIFUL BOLT (USA)+3.533% · 30%
  2. 1RITABOOK (USA)-1.616% · 18%
  3. 7SONADORA GIRL (USA)-3.514% · 18%
  4. 3PERIDOT PENDANT (USA)-4.014% · 18%
  5. 4MIGUEL'S BELLE (USA)-1.111% · 12%
  6. 6DUELA DENT (USA)+9.710% · 0%
  7. 2HOPEFORGREATNESS (USA)-3.12% · 5%
BEAUTIFUL BOLT (USA) is the pick: model 33% against a 30% pool share · verdict ↓

See more in every US race

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

17 races today · 5 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Wed 30 Sep 2026 · 2 tracks10 usable of 17 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Wed 30 Sep 2026, 03:07 ET · permalink

5 of 17 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Wed 30 Sep 2026

17 races across Horseshoe Indianapolis, Delaware Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

Usable
8½f Turf · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
7The pickSTART HER UP (USA)pool 55% · model 51.4% · AMIR MENDOZA
3Next bestSERRALUNGA (USA)pool 0% · model 7.7% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
6At a priceSOVEREIGN GRACE (USA)pool 0% · model 5.8% · JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR
Exacta box7310Trifecta box73106Win7

START HER UP (USA) (7) is the pick: model 51% against a 55% pool share, 5 runs of US form on file, edge -3.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SERRALUNGA (USA) (3) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, SOVEREIGN GRACE (USA) (6) carries +5.8 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7START HER UP (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 7 · pool 55% · market #1-3.1#1
  2. 3SERRALUNGA (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · ERIC N. FOSTER · draw 3 · pool — · market #9+7.7#2
  3. 10MISS MONROE COUNTY (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · SHAWNA MARTIN · draw 10 · pool 10% · market #2-3.3#3
  4. 1SEA RIDE (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANNA NAVARRETE · draw 1 · pool 8% · market #3-1.8#4
  5. 9SHIDONI (USA)ANGEL SERPA · FELIPE SALAS · draw 9 · pool 8% · market #4-2.0#5
  6. 6SOVEREIGN GRACE (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · CORIE ANDERSON · draw 6 · pool — · market #10+5.8#6
  7. 8IMMINENT RISK (USA)MICAH MEEKS · DESTIN G. HEATH · draw 8 · pool 8% · market #5-2.2#7
  8. 4MARIPOSA MOON (USA)IRVING MONCADA · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 4 · pool 6% · market #6-0.9#8
  9. 5HERE COMES FANNY (USA)DANILO GRISALES RAVE · WAYNE M. CATALANO · draw 5 · pool 4% · market #7-0.2#9
  10. 2ROCKY WORLD (USA)SUMMER PAULY · ED MOGER, JR. · draw 2 · pool 2% · market #8+0.0#10

Race 2 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Stakes, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 9 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
2The pickEVERYONE TALKS (USA)pool 24% · model 24.5% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
9Next bestGHOST STORY (USA)pool 21% · model 19.1% · MITCHELL MURRILL
7At a priceLOOKS LIKE LAINEY (USA)pool 0% · model 8.4% · MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR.
Exacta box294Trifecta box2947Win2

EVERYONE TALKS (USA) (2) is the pick: model 24% against a 24% pool share, only 1 run to go on, edge +0.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

GHOST STORY (USA) (9) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, LOOKS LIKE LAINEY (USA) (7) carries +8.4 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 2EVERYONE TALKS (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 2 · pool 24% · market #1+0.5#1
  2. 9GHOST STORY (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 9 · pool 21% · market #2-1.9#2
  3. 4Q'S DISCO DANCER (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 4 · pool 19% · market #3-1.5#3
  4. 7LOOKS LIKE LAINEY (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · GENARO GARCIA · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+8.4#4
  5. 3MISS UNBRIDLED (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · GENARO GARCIA · draw 3 · pool 13% · market #4-4.7#5
  6. 5MISS RESILIENT (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · GENARO GARCIA · draw 5 · pool — · market #9+8.3#6
  7. 10C C'S GIFT (USA)EDGAR MORALES · GENARO GARCIA · draw 10 · pool — · market #10+5.9#7
  8. 6PIONEER SKY (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · ISRAEL J. GARCIA · draw 6 · pool 9% · market #5-5.4#8
  9. 8IMALLABOUTTHATBEAT (USA)DANNY SHEEHY · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 8 · pool 9% · market #6-6.1#9
  10. 1JOJOJUSTICE (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · LILIA GONZALEZ · draw 1 · pool 5% · market #7-3.5#10

Race 3 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 11 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 11 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
5The pickHE'S A CHARMER (USA)pool 77% · model 45.6% · ALEX ACHARD
11Next bestSOTTO MO (USA)pool 0% · model 7.5% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
2At a priceMO CAN DANCE (USA)pool 0% · model 6.4% · EVIN A. ROMAN
Exacta box5113Trifecta box51132Win5

HE'S A CHARMER (USA) (5) is the pick: model 46% against a 77% pool share, 4 runs of US form on file, edge -30.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SOTTO MO (USA) (11) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, MO CAN DANCE (USA) (2) carries +6.4 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5HE'S A CHARMER (USA)ALEX ACHARD · ETHAN W. WEST · draw 5 · pool 77% · market #1-30.6#1
  2. 11SOTTO MO (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · AARON M. WEST · draw 11 · pool — · market #4+7.5#2
  3. 3KICK A BUCK (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOE SHARP · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+6.8#3
  4. 2MO CAN DANCE (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · ETHAN W. WEST · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+6.4#4
  5. 1PAPIAMENTO (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · TRACEY J. WISNER · draw 1 · pool — · market #7+6.0#5
  6. 10THOUSANDS OF HOPES (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · GENARO GARCIA · draw 10 · pool — · market #8+5.9#6
  7. 8RAG TREE (USA)TRAVIS WALES · HEATHER IRION · draw 8 · pool — · market #9+5.7#7
  8. 7SENOR VALENTINE (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · JOSE CAZARES · draw 7 · pool — · market #10+5.4#8
  9. 6JR SWEET FEET (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · JOSE CAZARES · draw 6 · pool — · market #11+5.0#9
  10. 4PIED PIPER (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · BRAD H. COX · draw 4 · pool 16% · market #2-11.3#10
  11. 9IMPAVIDO (USA)ABEL CEDILLO · DESTIN G. HEATH · draw 9 · pool 8% · market #3-6.7#11

Race 4 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

Usable
5f Turf · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
9The pickRAMBERT (USA)pool 34% · model 34.7% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
1Next bestSPOKE (USA)pool 23% · model 17.0% · MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR.
10At a priceJR JIMMY (USA)pool 0% · model 7.0% · JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR
Exacta box918Trifecta box91810Win9

RAMBERT (USA) (9) is the pick: model 35% against a 34% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +1.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SPOKE (USA) (1) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, JR JIMMY (USA) (10) carries +7.0 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 9RAMBERT (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · MICHELLE L. ELLIOTT · draw 9 · pool 34% · market #1+1.0#1
  2. 1SPOKE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ROGELIO LABRA · draw 1 · pool 23% · market #2-5.7#2
  3. 8SAINT IN THE CITY (USA)ADAM BESCHIZZA · THOMAS L. VAN BERG · draw 8 · pool — · market #7+8.1#3
  4. 10JR JIMMY (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · JOSE CAZARES · draw 10 · pool — · market #8+7.0#4
  5. 7MAJOR WAGER (USA)ALBIN JIMENEZ · JAMIE L. GRUBBS · draw 7 · pool 12% · market #3-5.1#5
  6. 4AMERICAN WIND (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · AGUSTIN GONZALEZ, JR. · draw 4 · pool — · market #9+6.6#6
  7. 2SAWYER FOX (USA)JANE ELLIOTT · WAYNE M. CATALANO · draw 2 · pool — · market #10+6.2#7
  8. 3BUTCH'S BEST (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · ROBERT E. DOBBS, JR. · draw 3 · pool 12% · market #4-6.3#8
  9. 5DECATUR STREET (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · JOSE CAZARES · draw 5 · pool 12% · market #5-6.4#9
  10. 6POWERIZED (USA)GUILLERMO RODRIGUEZ · FRANK LUCARELLI · draw 6 · pool 8% · market #6-5.3#10

Race 5 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

Usable
8¼f Dirt · Stakes, fillies & mares · 3yo Thoroughbreds · 10 of 10 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
1The pickKABOOM (USA)pool 53% · model 35.0% · JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR
2Next bestSMOKINGHOT JUSTICE (USA)pool 16% · model 13.1% · FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ
4At a priceCRAZY SEXY COOL (USA)pool 0% · model 7.7% · ALEXANDER CRISPIN
Exacta box129Trifecta box1294Win1

KABOOM (USA) (1) is the pick: model 35% against a 53% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge -17.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SMOKINGHOT JUSTICE (USA) (2) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, CRAZY SEXY COOL (USA) (4) carries +7.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1KABOOM (USA)JOSEPH C. BEALMEAR · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 1 · pool 53% · market #1-17.4#1
  2. 2SMOKINGHOT JUSTICE (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · AARON M. WEST · draw 2 · pool 16% · market #2-2.8#2
  3. 9ELTINGE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · JOHN L. LANGEMEIER · draw 9 · pool 12% · market #3-2.1#3
  4. 3PARTY IN THE CLUB (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · DEVARUS DOUGLASS · draw 3 · pool 12% · market #4-3.0#4
  5. 4CRAZY SEXY COOL (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 4 · pool — · market #7+7.7#5
  6. 10JUSTICEONTHERAIL (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 10 · pool — · market #8+7.1#6
  7. 5LEXIE'S LUNAR ROCK (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · BRIAN L. SCHLING · draw 5 · pool — · market #9+6.8#7
  8. 8WOSIE'S PROMISE (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 8 · pool — · market #10+6.5#8
  9. 7SPIRITED JUSTICE (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 7 · pool 4% · market #5-0.9#9
  10. 6SWISS MERINGUE (USA)DANNY SHEEHY · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 6 · pool 4% · market #6-1.9#10

Race 6 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 12 runners

Usable
8¼f Dirt · Stakes/Colts & geldings · 3yo Thoroughbreds · 12 of 12 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
4The pickHARD LUCK PRAYER (USA)pool 35% · model 24.5% · ANDRES P. ULLOA
11Next bestJR SHADOW BOY (USA)pool 22% · model 15.4% · HANNAH LEAHEY
9At a priceQ'S TOPNOTCH (USA)pool 0% · model 8.0% · AMIR MENDOZA
Exacta box4112Trifecta box41129Win4

HARD LUCK PRAYER (USA) (4) is the pick: model 25% against a 35% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge -10.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

JR SHADOW BOY (USA) (11) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, Q'S TOPNOTCH (USA) (9) carries +8.0 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 4HARD LUCK PRAYER (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 4 · pool 35% · market #1-10.1#1
  2. 11JR SHADOW BOY (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 11 · pool 22% · market #2-6.4#2
  3. 2Q'S GOT CLASS (USA)EDGAR MORALES · GENARO GARCIA · draw 2 · pool 17% · market #3-5.1#3
  4. 5SLY GUY (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · DEVARUS DOUGLASS · draw 5 · pool 17% · market #4-6.5#4
  5. 9Q'S TOPNOTCH (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 9 · pool — · market #8+8.0#5
  6. 12GUNZO (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · DAWN MARTIN · draw 12 · pool — · market #9+6.2#6
  7. 3TURBO DUCK (USA)JOSEPH M. ROMERO · TRACEY J. WISNER · draw 3 · pool — · market #10+6.1#7
  8. 8INFINITE SPEED (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANTONIO DURAN · draw 8 · pool — · market #11+5.7#8
  9. 10CHEATER (USA)BRODY MARTINEZ · HEATHER IRION · draw 10 · pool — · market #12+5.2#9
  10. 1SPEIGHT KNIGHT (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 1 · pool 4% · market #5-1.4#10
  11. 7QUAINT (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · GENARO GARCIA · draw 7 · pool 3% · market #6-0.6#11
  12. 6MR SLEDGE HAMMER (USA)ALEXANDER CRISPIN · TIANNA RICHARDVILLE · draw 6 · pool 3% · market #7-1.1#12

Race 7 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 11 runners

NO POOL YET
8½f Dirt · Stakes, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 11 of 11 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5TEMPLE PAYNTER (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4LIL GIN N CLASS (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 10HOOSIER PROMISE (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 10 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 6LOUDER THAN WORDS (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3SCREAMIN NINA (USA)IRVING MONCADA · STEPHEN V. FOSDICK · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 9RICH IN FAITH (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · DONNA RILEY · draw 9 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 2WATCHER (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · AARON M. WEST · draw 2 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 1INNISFREE LASS (USA)ALBERTO BURGOS · JOHN HARAN · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 7ITZFOREVER (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 11YOTOWIN (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · ROGELIO LABRA · draw 11 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 8PAY ME LATER (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 8 · pool — · market #11—#11

Race 8 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 16 runners

NO POOL YET
8½f Dirt · Stakes · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 16 of 16 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4SLEEPY (USA)JOSEPH D. RAMOS · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3TIZ EDDIE (USA)MITCHELL MURRILL · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 10CHICORY BLAZE (USA)RODNEY A. PRESCOTT · ROBERT E. DOBBS, JR. · draw 10 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 12JAZZOLE (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · GENARO GARCIA · draw 12 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 11C. J'S STORM (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · JOHN HARAN · draw 11 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 5TAKEITANDRUN (USA)FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ · TIM EGGLESTON · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7RUN AWAY ROJO (USA)KEITH J. ASMUSSEN · STEVEN M. ASMUSSEN · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 2KINGSBURY ROAD (USA)SANTO SANJUR · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 13GOLDWYN (USA)IRVING MONCADA · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 13 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 6SIR BAHJY (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · GENARO GARCIA · draw 6 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 16BERLONE (USA)ALEX ACHARD · RAYMOND J. PAQUETTE III · draw 16 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 1CHOCOLATE MOOSE (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · RANDY L. KLOPP · draw 1 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 9RICH KINGDOM (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · DONNA RILEY · draw 9 · pool — · market #13—#13
  14. 8GAS ALLEY (USA)DANNY SHEEHY · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 8 · pool — · market #14—#14
  15. 14POSITIVE CHANGE (USA)ORLANDO MOJICA, JR. · JULIE SEBASTIAN · draw 14 · pool — · market #15—#15
  16. 15GIN AND WHISKEY (USA)SAMUEL E. BERMUDEZ · DEVARUS DOUGLASS · draw 15 · pool — · market #16—#16

Race 9 · Horseshoe Indianapolis · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Stakes · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 9 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 10Q'S BEST BET (USA)AMIR MENDOZA · GENARO GARCIA · draw 10 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4SLEEPY BEAUTY (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · GENARO GARCIA · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 7CASH PER TRIP (USA)ADAM BESCHIZZA · COTY W. ROSIN · draw 7 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2FOREVER RELEASE (USA)EVIN A. ROMAN · GENARO GARCIA · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5J'S JERSEY BOY (USA)HANNAH LEAHEY · JOSEPH D. DAVIS · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 1KANSASCITYJUSTICE (USA)ANDRES P. ULLOA · ROBERT M. GORHAM · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 8YOSEMITE'S ROCKIN (USA)ALEX ACHARD · ANTHONY J. GRANITZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 9FEROCIOUS JUSTICE (USA)MARCELINO PEDROZA, JR. · TOMAS MEDINA · draw 9 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 6WHITEY LANGE (USA)EDGAR MORALES · JOHN L. LANGEMEIER · draw 6 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 3SKEPTICISM (USA)YEDSIT HAZLEWOOD · MICHAEL E. LAUER · draw 3 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 1 · Delaware Park · 7 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
5The pickBEAUTIFUL BOLT (USA)pool 30% · model 33.2% · JAIME RODRIGUEZ
1Next bestRITABOOK (USA)pool 18% · model 16.2% · JOSE A. BATISTA
6At a priceDUELA DENT (USA)pool 0% · model 9.7% · JULIO A. HERNANDEZ
Exacta box517Trifecta box5176Win5

BEAUTIFUL BOLT (USA) (5) is the pick: model 33% against a 30% pool share, 6 runs of US form on file, edge +3.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

RITABOOK (USA) (1) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, DUELA DENT (USA) (6) carries +9.7 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5BEAUTIFUL BOLT (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · MICHAEL V. SIMONE · draw 5 · pool 30% · market #1+3.5#1
  2. 1RITABOOK (USA)JOSE A. BATISTA · VICTOR CARRASCO, JR. · draw 1 · pool 18% · market #2-1.6#2
  3. 7SONADORA GIRL (USA)EMANUEL ROSARIO · ELLIOTT SOTO- MARTINEZ · draw 7 · pool 18% · market #3-3.5#3
  4. 3PERIDOT PENDANT (USA)EMILIO FLORES · ERIN C. MCCLELLAN · draw 3 · pool 18% · market #4-4.0#4
  5. 4MIGUEL'S BELLE (USA)PACO LOPEZ · MICHAEL V. SIMONE · draw 4 · pool 12% · market #5-1.1#5
  6. 6DUELA DENT (USA)JULIO A. HERNANDEZ · DEVON DOUGHERTY · draw 6 · pool — · market #7+9.7#6
  7. 2HOPEFORGREATNESS (USA)MELVIS GONZALEZ · HUGO O. PADILLA · draw 2 · pool 5% · market #6-3.1#7

Race 2 · Delaware Park · 7 runners

Thin form
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
3The pickBREAK OF DAWN (USA)pool 51% · model 43.2% · JOSE R. BETANCOURT
6Next bestNIGHT OF MAGIC (USA)pool 25% · model 16.4% · JAIME RODRIGUEZ
1At a pricePETEY MOTTO (USA)pool 0% · model 9.8% · ANGEL CRUZ
Exacta box364Trifecta box3641Win3

BREAK OF DAWN (USA) (3) is the pick: model 43% against a 51% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge -7.8 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

NIGHT OF MAGIC (USA) (6) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, PETEY MOTTO (USA) (1) carries +9.8 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3BREAK OF DAWN (USA)JOSE R. BETANCOURT · JACLYN REED · draw 3 · pool 51% · market #1-7.8#1
  2. 6NIGHT OF MAGIC (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · MONICA MCGOEY · draw 6 · pool 25% · market #2-8.6#2
  3. 4UNBRIDLED JUSTICE (USA)PACO LOPEZ · GREGORY D. SACCO · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+14.2#3
  4. 1PETEY MOTTO (USA)ANGEL CRUZ · EDWARD J. COLETTI, JR. · draw 1 · pool — · market #6+9.8#4
  5. 2GOOD WILLIE (USA)MATILDA BURNHAM · MARIO ROBERTO LOPEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #7+7.8#5
  6. 5ADIOS BUSTER (USA)MARVIN FERNANDEZ · STEVEN DYE · draw 5 · pool 12% · market #3-7.6#6
  7. 7BETTER THEN LOTTO (USA)ISMERIO VILLALOBOS · MONICA MCGOEY · draw 7 · pool 12% · market #4-7.8#7

Race 3 · Delaware Park · 10 runners

Blind
5½f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 3 of 10 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 4DADDY MONEYBAGS (USA)JULIO A. HERNANDEZ · ANDREW L. SIMOFF · draw 4 · pool 75% · market #1—#1
  2. 5INFUSED (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#2
  3. 2UNCLE K O (USA)AJHARI WILLIAMS · ANTHONY PECORARO · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#3
  4. 7MAX PUSH (USA)LEANDRO M. BRICENO · GARY CAPUANO · draw 7 · pool — · market #6—#4
  5. 8MAJESTIC ROADSTER (USA)CAROL CEDENO · KATHLEEN O'CONNELL · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#5
  6. 3JEZEEN (USA)SARA HESS · MARIO ROBERTO LOPEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #8—#6
  7. 10MOROCCO TOPO (USA)ERASMO MARTINEZ · POMPEYO GOMEZ · draw 10 · pool — · market #9—#7
  8. 1BAGLEY CUT (USA)TESHAWN HAZELWOOD · MICHAEL L. CATALANO, JR. · draw 1 · pool — · market #10—#8
  9. 9ROSIE'S RASCAL (USA)PACO LOPEZ · CATHAL A. LYNCH · draw 9 · pool 12% · market #2—#9
  10. 6DOMENIC'S TRICK (USA)LUIS RAUL RIVERA, JR. · KATHLEEN O'CONNELL · draw 6 · pool 12% · market #3—#10

Race 4 · Delaware Park · 17 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 15 of 17 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
3The pickHOTTER THAN FIRE (USA)pool 75% · model 42.4% · JAIME RODRIGUEZ
14Next bestAIBELL (USA)pool 0% · model 4.7% · PACO LOPEZ
Exacta box31411Trifecta box31411Win3

HOTTER THAN FIRE (USA) (3) is the pick: model 42% against a 75% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -32.6 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

AIBELL (USA) (14) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3HOTTER THAN FIRE (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 3 · pool 75% · market #1-32.6#1
  2. 14AIBELL (USA)PACO LOPEZ · GREGORY D. SACCO · draw 14 · pool — · market #3+4.7#2
  3. 11AUTHENTIC ANGEL (USA)JOSE A. BATISTA · JOSE A. GALLEGOS · draw 11 · pool — · market #4+4.5#3
  4. 17KOOL KAY (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · ALISA BROOKE SARSON · draw 17 · pool — · market #5+4.3#4
  5. 7BINT MISCHIEF (USA)JULIO A. HERNANDEZ · MONICA MCGOEY · draw 7 · pool — · market #6+4.2#5
  6. 15DARRENS DELIGHT (USA)VLADIMIR DIAZ · ALISA BROOKE SARSON · draw 15 · pool — · market #7+4.1#6
  7. 12PHOEBEINWONDERLAND (USA)JESUS M. RIOS · JOSE A. GALLEGOS · draw 12 · pool — · market #8+3.9#7
  8. 8FIVECLOCKSOMEWHERE (USA)LEANDRO M. BRICENO · PEDRO NAZARIO · draw 8 · pool — · market #9+3.9#8
  9. 2FURYS CHARM (USA)JOSE A. BATISTA · KELLY LYNN DEITER · draw 2 · pool — · market #10+3.8#9
  10. 9SAVANASRIOGUERRERA (USA)CARLOS EDUARDO LOPEZ · MARK SHUMAN · draw 9 · pool — · market #11+3.7#10
  11. 4SAUCY SIX (USA)TESHAWN HAZELWOOD · ROBERT A. WERNETH · draw 4 · pool — · market #12+3.7#11
  12. 5LIGHTEN (USA)VINCENT CHEMINAUD · JOSE ANTONIO VARGAS · draw 5 · pool — · market #13+3.6#12
  13. 16RADAR LOOP (USA)JULIO A. HERNANDEZ · MICHAEL DINI · draw 16 · pool — · market #14+3.3#13
  14. 1ROBERTA (USA)ANGEL CRUZ · WILLIAM DOWLING · draw 1 · pool — · market #15+3.3#14
  15. 10STERLING CAT (USA)JOSE R. BETANCOURT · JOSE I. SAMANIEGO · draw 10 · pool — · market #16+3.1#15
  16. 13PANCHITA (USA)PAUL A. LUNA · PEDRO NAZARIO · draw 13 · pool — · market #17+3.0#16
  17. 6PRECIOUS SIGHT (USA)SARA HESS · LESLIELYN N. HARDESTY · draw 6 · pool 25% · market #2-24.7#17

Race 5 · Delaware Park · 9 runners

Usable
5½f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
1The pickUNIWINNER (USA)pool 63% · model 38.6% · RONALDO RODRIGUEZ
6Next bestDOUBLE EDGE SWORD (USA)pool 25% · model 10.3% · PACO LOPEZ
8At a priceFLOAT ON (USA)pool 0% · model 9.5% · JOSE A. BATISTA
Exacta box162Trifecta box1628Win1

UNIWINNER (USA) (1) is the pick: model 39% against a 63% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -24.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

DOUBLE EDGE SWORD (USA) (6) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, FLOAT ON (USA) (8) carries +9.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1UNIWINNER (USA)RONALDO RODRIGUEZ · CESAR NAMBO · draw 1 · pool 63% · market #1-24.4#1
  2. 6DOUBLE EDGE SWORD (USA)PACO LOPEZ · BRETT A. BRINKMAN · draw 6 · pool 25% · market #2-14.7#2
  3. 2HEAVEN STREET (USA)ANGEL CRUZ · TIMOTHY C. KREISER · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+10.2#3
  4. 8FLOAT ON (USA)JOSE A. BATISTA · JOSUE ARCE · draw 8 · pool — · market #5+9.5#4
  5. 3JUST FOR THE MONEY (USA)JESUS M. RIOS · CESAR NAMBO · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+8.4#5
  6. 9TRIPLE PASS (USA)MARVIN FERNANDEZ · JOHNNY COLLINS · draw 9 · pool — · market #7+8.1#6
  7. 7MAGICNTHEMOONLIGHT (USA)KLEINER A. MEJIAS · RUPERTO A. PEREZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #8+7.0#7
  8. 4LADDIE DANCE (USA)MATILDA BURNHAM · GINA PERRI · draw 4 · pool — · market #9+6.0#8
  9. 5NEWYEARSBLOCKPARTY (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · JEFFREY A. POOLE · draw 5 · pool 12% · market #3-10.1#9

Race 6 · Delaware Park · 13 runners

Usable
8f Turf · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 13 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
6The pickRUSE (USA)pool 22% · model 19.8% · JOSE A. BATISTA
2Next bestSKY'S NOT FALLING (USA)pool 22% · model 17.5% · ISMERIO VILLALOBOS
8At a priceTAKE ME TO CHURCH (IRE)pool 0% · model 8.3% · PACO LOPEZ
Exacta box6210Trifecta box62108Win6

RUSE (USA) (6) is the pick: model 20% against a 22% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge -2.2 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SKY'S NOT FALLING (USA) (2) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, TAKE ME TO CHURCH (IRE) (8) carries +8.3 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6RUSE (USA)JOSE A. BATISTA · MICHAEL V. SIMONE · draw 6 · pool 22% · market #1-2.2#1
  2. 2SKY'S NOT FALLING (USA)ISMERIO VILLALOBOS · MONICA MCGOEY · draw 2 · pool 22% · market #2-4.5#2
  3. 10TALLAHATCHIEBRIDGE (USA)MARVIN FERNANDEZ · BRUCE M. KRAVETS · draw 10 · pool 22% · market #3-8.7#3
  4. 8TAKE ME TO CHURCH (IRE)PACO LOPEZ · KERI BRION · draw 8 · pool — · market #7+8.3#4
  5. 3CATCH THE SMOKE (USA)PACO LOPEZ · WAYNE POTTS · draw 3 · pool — · market #8+5.8#5
  6. 9BE HERE (USA)JESUS M. RIOS · JONATHAN MALDONADO · draw 9 · pool — · market #9+5.6#6
  7. 5AMEDEUS MUSIC (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · WAYNE POTTS · draw 5 · pool — · market #10+5.6#7
  8. 7CHUCK ADAMS (USA)JULIO A. HERNANDEZ · BRUCE M. KRAVETS · draw 7 · pool — · market #11+5.6#8
  9. 4TAP EM (USA)PAUL A. LUNA · JOSE ANTONIO VARGAS · draw 4 · pool — · market #12+5.2#9
  10. 11HOODLUM (USA)VINCENT CHEMINAUD · MARIA BOWERSOCK · draw 11 · pool — · market #13+4.8#10
  11. 12MO REWARDS (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · JAMIE NESS · draw 12 · pool 13% · market #4-8.6#11
  12. 1ROXTON (USA)CAROL CEDENO · RICHARD VEGA · draw 1 · pool 13% · market #5-9.8#12
  13. 13THICK AS THIEVES (USA)GAVIN ASHTON · MARK V. SALVAGGIO · draw 13 · pool 8% · market #6-7.2#13

Race 7 · Delaware Park · 6 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 6 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6MAD FOR MADDY (USA)JOSE A. BATISTA · JOSE A. GALLEGOS · draw 6 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4THEA (USA)PACO LOPEZ · LINDSAY SCHULTZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 3VIOLET'S CHARM (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · WILLIAM DOWNING · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2DIDN'T IT RAIN (USA)ANGEL CRUZ · TIMOTHY C. KREISER · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 1CASTAGNA (USA)JESUS M. RIOS · ALEJANDRO OLAIS MENDIETA · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 5RIDGIE (USA)VINCENT CHEMINAUD · MARIA BOWERSOCK · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#6

Race 8 · Delaware Park · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5PRINCESS CLEO (USA)PACO LOPEZ · CATHAL A. LYNCH · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 7HERE'S TO THE BOYS (USA)JAIME RODRIGUEZ · EDWARD T. ALLARD · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 2I'M UNSTOPPABLE (USA)ANGEL MORENO · CHARLES A. DEMARIO · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1FLAVORS (USA)JOSE ANTONIO GOMEZ · TERESA M. POMPAY · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3IVEY MY LOVE (USA)BARRINGTON BELL · STEVEN DYE · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 4LIADAN (USA)GAVIN ASHTON · BEVERLY STRAUSS · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 6GOGO GLAM (USA)JOSE A. BATISTA · KELLY LYNN DEITER · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#7

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Belmont Park (1.00 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

Same engine, three racing worlds:TJK Tahmin · TurkeySha Tin More · Hong KongUSA Pick Day · USA