Race 7 · Santa Anita Parkpool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 3DELIGHTFUL LAURA (USA)+3.940% · 36%
  2. 1STREET SWINDLER (USA)-2.821% · 24%
  3. 6SUBATOMIC LAW (USA)-4.011% · 15%
  4. 2IMABOUTAGO (IRE)-2.18% · 10%
  5. 5MISS MEAGHER (IRE)-3.67% · 11%
  6. 7LINO'S ANGEL (USA)-1.82% · 4%
DELIGHTFUL LAURA (USA) is the pick: model 40% against a 36% pool share · verdict ↓

Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park picks — Fri 30 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →

9 races today · 36 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 2 tracks3 usable of 9 races · model overturns the favourite in 1Written Fri 30 Oct 2026, 19:15 ET · permalink

4 of 9 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Fri 30 Oct 2026

9 races across Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 2 · Gulfstream Park · 8 runners

Thin form
7f Dirt · Maiden claiming · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 2 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
6The pickMISCHIEF HOLIDAY (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 10.1% · SONNY LEON
1Next bestPOWER ROYAL (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 8.2% · RENZO ROJAS

MISCHIEF HOLIDAY (USA) (Koşmaz) (6) is the pick: model 10% against a 0% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +10.1 points.

The pool makes TULIO (USA) (Koşmaz) (7) favourite at 4%; the model rates it 3%, so we overturn the favourite.

POWER ROYAL (USA) (Koşmaz) (1) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 6MISCHIEF HOLIDAY (USA)SONNY LEON · KATHLEEN O'CONNELL · draw 6 · pool — · market #2scr#4
  2. 1POWER ROYAL (USA)RENZO ROJAS · FRANK SANTILLANA · draw 1 · pool — · market #3scr#5
  3. 7TULIO (USA)LEONEL REYES · FAUSTO GUTIERREZ · draw 7 · pool 4% · market #1scr#8
  4. 2ASTROGEM (USA) (1)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 3SUBTLE SIR (USA) (4)JONATHAN SANTOS · NICHOLAS PALMER · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 4SLEW DE ORO (USA) (5)EDGAR PEREZ · PEDRO R. GARCIA · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 5OUR WILLOW (USA) (2)DIEGO A. HERRERA · KATHLEEN O'CONNELL · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 8DON'T TELL BERT (USA) (3)JOSE E. MORELOS · JEFF ENGLER · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 4 · Gulfstream Park · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Stakes, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 2 of 12 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7PHILIPINA A (USA)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 7 · pool — · market #1scr#11
  2. 1CHICA FELIZ (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · FRANCISCO ALANIS · draw 1 · pool — · market #2scr#12
  3. 2HAMMY (USA) (1)MARCOS MENESES · J. KENT SWEEZEY · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3KISSED BY A ROSE (USA) (9)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · RONALD B. SPATZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4LIBERTY RINGS (USA) (10)NIK JUAREZ · NICHOLAS PALMER · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5SUCKER FOR LOOKS (USA) (3)DIEGO A. HERRERA · LAUREN ROBSON · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6KAROLINA PHAROAH (USA) (7)JONATHAN OCASIO · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8BOOTS (USA) (8)MICAH J. HUSBANDS · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 9TOUCH OF HONOR (USA) (5)JESUS M. RIOS · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 10LIFE'S MYSTERY (USA) (2)RASHEED HUGHES · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 11SMOKE (USA) (6)JOSE E. MORELOS · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 11 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 12CASABLANCA QUEEN (USA) (4)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 12 · pool — · market #12—#99

Race 6 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2TAPE RUNNER (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 2 · pool — · market #1scr#6
  2. 1MORE APPLAUSE (USA) (3)MIGUEL ANGEL VASQUEZ · JOSEPH C. CATANESE III · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 3TELL ME SOME LIES (USA) (1)DIEGO A. HERRERA · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 4NASHVILLE SLEW (USA) (7)EDWIN GONZALEZ · ROGER LAURIN · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5LADY RIVER LILY (USA) (8)WESLEY HENRY · ANGEL M. RODRIGUEZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6ELENIQUE (USA) (5)J.G. TORREALBA · PATRICK L. BIANCONE · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7NEW LIFE (USA) (2)LEONEL REYES · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8STARSHIP ELATION (USA) (6)JOSE E. MORELOS · KATHY P. MONGEON · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 9DEL MAR SUNRISE (IRE) (4)MARCOS MENESES · NICHOLAS J. TOMLINSON · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 1 · Santa Anita Park · 6 runners

Thin form
6f Turf · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 6 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
1The pickSELECTED (USA)pool 30% · model 30.7% · WELFIN R. ORANTES
4Next bestSISSY GIRL (USA)pool 17% · model 18.1% · TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA

SELECTED (USA) (1) is the pick: model 31% against a 30% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +0.7 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SISSY GIRL (USA) (4) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1SELECTED (USA)WELFIN R. ORANTES · ANDY MATHIS · draw 1 · pool 30% · market #1+0.7#2
  2. 4SISSY GIRL (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · PAUL G. AGUIRRE · draw 4 · pool 17% · market #2+1.1#3
  3. 3TROPICAL RAIN DAY (USA) (4)ARMANDO AYUSO · VICTOR L. GARCIA · draw 3 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 6GRAPE JUICE TOO (USA) (3)MANUEL AMERICANO · MELANIE W. MCDONALD · draw 6 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 5AWESOME OLGA (USA) (1)ARMANDO AGUILAR · JAVIER JOSE SIERRA · draw 5 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 2RUMPUS LADY (USA) (2)FRANCISCO MONROY · ISIDRO TAMAYO · draw 2 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99

Race 2 · Santa Anita Park · 7 runners

Usable
8f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
7The pickDOUBLE NEAT (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 9.1% · ABEL LEZCANO
6Next bestCLOUSEAU (USA) (1)pool 0% · model 0.0% · VICTOR ESPINOZA

DOUBLE NEAT (USA) (Koşmaz) (7) is the pick: model 9% against a 0% pool share, 7 runs of US form on file, edge +9.1 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

CLOUSEAU (USA) (1) (6) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 7DOUBLE NEAT (USA)ABEL LEZCANO · HECTOR O. PALMA · draw 7 · pool — · market #1scr#5
  2. 6CLOUSEAU (USA) (1)VICTOR ESPINOZA · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 6 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 4RODRIGOKNOWS (USA) (6)KYLE FREY · HECTOR O. PALMA · draw 4 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 1MIGHTY KAI (USA) (2)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · PAUL G. AGUIRRE · draw 1 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 2MEGA MOON (USA) (3)ARMANDO AYUSO · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 2 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 3JOINT VENTURE (USA) (5)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 3 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 5MAJESTIC PALISADES (USA) (4)ARMANDO AGUILAR · LIBRADO BAROCIO · draw 5 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 5 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
5f Turf · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 3 of 8 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5TRIPLE DIAMONDS (USA)ABEL LEZCANO · MARK GLATT · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4OPUS UNO (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · PETER MILLER · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#4
  3. 6THROWTHEFIRSTPUNCH (USA)KYLE FREY · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#7
  4. 3JALISCO (USA)CRISTOBAL HERRERA · ROBERT J. LUCAS · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#8
  5. 8PROOF HE GOES (USA) (1)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 8 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 1PRIME ARTIST (FR) (2)RICARDO GONZALEZ · BLAINE D. WRIGHT · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7HENRY ADAMS (IRE) (3)TYLER BAZE · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 2CHAPTER ONE (USA) (4)MANUEL AMERICANO · ROBERT J. LUCAS · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#99

Race 6 · Santa Anita Park · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Maiden claiming, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 4 of 9 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5JADE'S MOST WANTED (USA)MANUEL AMERICANO · JORGE PERIBAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#4
  2. 9MAIN IMPACT (USA)TYLER BAZE · RYAN HANSON · draw 9 · pool — · market #2—#5
  3. 6CLUB MAYO (USA)WELFIN R. ORANTES · JEFF BONDE · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#7
  4. 7REJOICEFUL (USA)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · FELIX RONDAN · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#8
  5. 2ESTRELLA ESMERAL (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · SERGIO MORFIN · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#9
  6. 4ICECREAM ONTHESIDE (USA) (4)ARMANDO AYUSO · STEVEN MIYADI · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 1CLUBHOUSE ROSE (USA) (2)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · VAL BRINKERHOFF · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 8SHEMAKESMEMAD (USA) (1)KYLE FREY · STEVEN MIYADI · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 3ZAYDA AT THE SPA (USA) (3)VICTOR ESPINOZA · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 3 · pool — · market #9—#99

Race 7 · Santa Anita Park · 7 runners

Usable
6½f Turf · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysConfident
3The pickDELIGHTFUL LAURA (USA)pool 36% · model 39.9% · HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS
1Next bestSTREET SWINDLER (USA)pool 24% · model 21.2% · ABEL LEZCANO
4At a priceMY GIRL MIA (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 10.5% · KYLE FREY

DELIGHTFUL LAURA (USA) (3) is the pick: model 40% against a 36% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +3.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

STREET SWINDLER (USA) (1) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, MY GIRL MIA (USA) (Koşmaz) (4) carries +10.5 points of edge from a 0% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3DELIGHTFUL LAURA (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · PETER EURTON · draw 3 · pool 36% · market #1+3.9#1
  2. 1STREET SWINDLER (USA)ABEL LEZCANO · MARK GLATT · draw 1 · pool 24% · market #2-2.8#2
  3. 6SUBATOMIC LAW (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · NEIL D. DRYSDALE · draw 6 · pool 15% · market #3-4.0#3
  4. 4MY GIRL MIA (USA)KYLE FREY · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 4 · pool — · market #7scr#4
  5. 2IMABOUTAGO (IRE)ARMANDO AYUSO · LEONARD POWELL · draw 2 · pool 10% · market #5-2.1#5
  6. 5MISS MEAGHER (IRE)EPIFANIO GARCIA · D. WAYNE BAKER · draw 5 · pool 11% · market #4-3.6#6
  7. 7LINO'S ANGEL (USA)TYLER BAZE · EDWIN G. ALVAREZ · draw 7 · pool 4% · market #6-1.8#7

Race 8 · Santa Anita Park · 11 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo Thoroughbreds · 10 of 11 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
3The pickTAKING A JOY RIDE (USA)pool 21% · model 20.6% · HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS
5Next bestREDHEADED REBA (USA)pool 19% · model 15.4% · TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA

TAKING A JOY RIDE (USA) (3) is the pick: model 21% against a 21% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge -0.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

REDHEADED REBA (USA) (5) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3TAKING A JOY RIDE (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · CRAIG ANTHONY LEWIS · draw 3 · pool 21% · market #1-0.4#1
  2. 5REDHEADED REBA (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · DANIEL DUNHAM · draw 5 · pool 19% · market #2-3.6#2
  3. 2FACTOR P (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 2 · pool 15% · market #3-0.9#3
  4. 8JASMINA (USA)KYLE FREY · ROBERT B. HESS, JR. · draw 8 · pool 13% · market #4-0.4#4
  5. 10CHRISTA MCAULIFFE (USA)MANUEL AMERICANO · STEVEN MIYADI · draw 10 · pool 9% · market #5+0.8#5
  6. 4FAMOUS FORZA (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · BILL MCLEAN · draw 4 · pool 8% · market #6+0.6#6
  7. 7COME ON OM (USA)TYLER BAZE · SEAN MCCARTHY · draw 7 · pool 5% · market #7+0.5#7
  8. 11LA SILENCIOSA (USA)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · VICTOR L. GARCIA · draw 11 · pool 4% · market #8+1.0#8
  9. 6KOOL KITTEN (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · ANDY MATHIS · draw 6 · pool 3% · market #9+1.3#9
  10. 9MERIDIAN MAE (USA)WELFIN R. ORANTES · MIKE PUYPE · draw 9 · pool 2% · market #10+0.6#10
  11. 1CARA ROSE (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · STEVEN MIYADI · draw 1 · pool 1% · market #11+0.5#11

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Belmont Park (1.24 runs/horse) · Keeneland (1.19 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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