Race 8 · Gulfstream Parkpool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 1VELOCIRAPTOR (USA) (3)+0.00% · 0%
  2. 2MAITRE D (USA) (2)+0.00% · 0%
  3. 3HOTTAKEJAKE (USA) (1)+0.00% · 0%
  4. 4NEOPHYTE (USA) (4)+0.00% · 0%
  5. 7JAVA BUZZ (USA) (5)+0.00% · 0%
FULANITO (USA) (Koşmaz) is the pick: model 14% against a 0% pool share · verdict ↓

Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park picks — Sat 31 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's US cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 7,572 races, for every US track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →

13 races today · 37 days on file · walk-forward test on 6,972 races out of sample · how it scored

Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 2 tracks4 usable of 13 races · model overturns the favourite in 1Written Sat 31 Oct 2026, 19:15 ET · permalink

6 of 13 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Today · Sat 31 Oct 2026

13 races across Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Thin form
Maiden claiming Allowance · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 1 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
3The pickNO LOVE LOST (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 11.0% · LEONEL REYES
4Next bestBANDARI (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 9% · model 9.4% · JOSE E. MORELOS

NO LOVE LOST (USA) (Koşmaz) (3) is the pick: model 11% against a 0% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +11.0 points.

The pool makes BANDARI (USA) (Koşmaz) (4) favourite at 9%; the model rates it 9%, so we overturn the favourite.

BANDARI (USA) (Koşmaz) (4) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 3NO LOVE LOST (USA)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 3 · pool — · market #3scr#5
  2. 4BANDARI (USA)JOSE E. MORELOS · FAUSTO GUTIERREZ · draw 4 · pool 9% · market #1scr#6
  3. 5SLEW VINBIZ (USA)SONNY LEON · KATHLEEN O'CONNELL · draw 5 · pool 1% · market #2scr#9
  4. 1NEW FRIEND (USA) (5)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 1 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 2FIGHT AND PRAY (USA) (2)DIEGO A. HERRERA · ANTONIO SANO · draw 2 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6CHIEF LION (USA) (3)MARCOS MENESES · AMADOR MEREI SANCHEZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7MR. HETTY (USA) (1)J.G. TORREALBA · PATRICK L. BIANCONE · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 8SAVE OUR SOUL (USA) (6)CARLOS MARTINEZ · GERALD JAMES · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 9ETRUSCAN WARRIOR (USA) (4)NIK JUAREZ · NICHOLAS PALMER · draw 9 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99

Race 2 · Gulfstream Park · 8 runners

Usable
Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
5The pickSCOTTIE TOO HOTTIE (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 1% · model 2.0% · EDGAR PEREZ
1Next bestGOLDEN AMBITION (USA) (3)pool 0% · model 0.0% · DIEGO A. HERRERA

SCOTTIE TOO HOTTIE (USA) (Koşmaz) (5) is the pick: model 2% against a 1% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +1.0 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

GOLDEN AMBITION (USA) (3) (1) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5SCOTTIE TOO HOTTIE (USA)EDGAR PEREZ · VICTOR BARBOZA, JR. · draw 5 · pool 1% · market #1scr#8
  2. 1GOLDEN AMBITION (USA) (3)DIEGO A. HERRERA · STEVE KLESARIS · draw 1 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 2LEO'S ROCKET (USA) (2)MARCOS MENESES · DANIEL C. HURTAK · draw 2 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 3EMERGING LEADER (ARG) (1)JONATHAN SANTOS · SANTIAGO MEDINA · draw 3 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4VALUE INTHE CLOUDS (USA) (5)CARLOS MARTINEZ · HENRY COLLAZO · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6DEUXIEME CHANCE (USA) (7)LEONEL REYES · J. DAVID BRADDY · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7KY'S LAW (USA) (6)SONNY LEON · DANIEL C. HURTAK · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 8FREEDOM STREET (USA) (4)JOSE E. MORELOS · JEFF ENGLER · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 3 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4FIFTEEN HUNDRED R (USA)LEONEL REYES · PEDRO R. GARCIA · draw 4 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 2TOM B THE GOAT (USA)JONATHAN OCASIO · MANUEL CRIOLLO · draw 2 · pool — · market #2scr#5
  3. 1ROCKIN EMPIRE (USA) (5)JONATHAN SANTOS · BRIAN R. LUSK · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3HENRY'S BUDDY (USA) (2)SONNY LEON · MARK E. CASSE · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5LIGHTING ARROW (USA) (3)JOSE E. MORELOS · RODOLFO GARCIA · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 6RUDI (USA) (1)DIEGO A. HERRERA · ANTONIO SANO · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 7HOLY COW (USA) (4)FELIX VASQUEZ, JR. · BRUNO TESSORE · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 5 · Gulfstream Park · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
Allowance optional claiming, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 9NEODERA (USA)EDGAR PEREZ · MICHAEL LERMAN · draw 9 · pool — · market #1scr#4
  2. 1LAILA BELLA GIRL (USA) (4)J.G. TORREALBA · J. DAVID BRADDY · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 2ALPENGLOW (USA) (5)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 3CHANCE TO PARTY (USA) (9)DIEGO A. HERRERA · MARY LIGHTNER · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 4TAKE CHARGE BOO (USA) (7)JESUS M. RIOS · JOSE A. GALLEGOS · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 5FLOWKO (USA) (1)MARCOS MENESES · RORY C. MILLER · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 6TIZASWEETLADY (USA) (3)NIK JUAREZ · LEON J. MCKANAS · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 7MYWIFEKNOWSITALL (USA) (6)JONATHAN OCASIO · GARY G. JACKSON · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 8HIDDEN AGENDA (USA) (8)JONATHAN SANTOS · RONALD COY · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 10LOVE LIKE LUCY (USA) (2)RASHEED HUGHES · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#99

Race 6 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Dirt · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 1 of 7 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6STARSHIP COUGAR (USA)J.G. TORREALBA · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 6 · pool — · market #1scr#2
  2. 7STARSHIP STELLA (USA)YOLBER TORRES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 7 · pool — · market #2scr#6
  3. 1LADY BLUESVILLE (USA) (4)CIPRIANO GIL · KATHLEEN O'CONNELL · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 2BASHFULLY (USA) (2)JOSE E. MORELOS · TODD A. PLETCHER · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 3SWELL (USA) (5)JONATHAN SANTOS · BERNARDO G. LOPEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 4EIGHT ROSE'S (USA) (3)DIEGO A. HERRERA · TODD A. PLETCHER · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 5CIPRESA (USA) (1)LEONEL REYES · BERNARDO G. LOPEZ · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#99

Race 7 · Gulfstream Park · 9 runners

Usable
Stakes · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 3 of 9 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
1The pickINDIAN PHAROAH (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 10.5% · SONNY LEON
6Next bestHERACLES (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 8.8% · EDGAR PEREZ

INDIAN PHAROAH (USA) (Koşmaz) (1) is the pick: model 10% against a 0% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +10.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

HERACLES (USA) (Koşmaz) (6) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1INDIAN PHAROAH (USA)SONNY LEON · H. GRAHAM MOTION · draw 1 · pool — · market #1scr#4
  2. 6HERACLES (USA)EDGAR PEREZ · RONALD B. SPATZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #2scr#5
  3. 5PALINGO (USA)HERIBERTO FIGUEROA · HEATHER SMULLEN · draw 5 · pool — · market #3scr#6
  4. 2MEGAPLUMB (USA) (5)JOSE E. MORELOS · DANIEL C. HURTAK · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 3SUSHI PARTY (USA) (2)CIPRIANO GIL · H. GRAHAM MOTION · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 4READY TO RAGE (USA) (4)JONATHAN OCASIO · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7CARIBBEAN COMET (USA) (3)J.G. TORREALBA · PATRICK L. BIANCONE · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 8LORD HENRY (USA) (6)DIEGO A. HERRERA · JOSEPH F. ORSENO · draw 8 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99
  9. 9MITZMAN (USA) (1)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 9 · pool — · market #9+0.0#99

Race 8 · Gulfstream Park · 7 runners

Usable
Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 7 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
5The pickFULANITO (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 14.4% · LEONEL REYES
6Next bestREADIER (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 7.9% · EDGAR PEREZ

FULANITO (USA) (Koşmaz) (5) is the pick: model 14% against a 0% pool share, 3 runs of US form on file, edge +14.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

READIER (USA) (Koşmaz) (6) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 5FULANITO (USA)LEONEL REYES · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 5 · pool — · market #1scr#3
  2. 6READIER (USA)EDGAR PEREZ · LAURA CAZARES · draw 6 · pool — · market #2scr#5
  3. 1VELOCIRAPTOR (USA) (3)SONNY LEON · AMADOR MEREI SANCHEZ · draw 1 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 2MAITRE D (USA) (2)JONATHAN SANTOS · BARRY N. CROFT · draw 2 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 3HOTTAKEJAKE (USA) (1)CIPRIANO GIL · TAREQ MOUBARAK · draw 3 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 4NEOPHYTE (USA) (4)ANTHONY THOMAS · MANNY REAL · draw 4 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7JAVA BUZZ (USA) (5)MARCOS MENESES · CARLOS A. DAVID · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99

Race 1 · Santa Anita Park · 8 runners

Usable
6f Dirt · Allowance optional claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysFairly confident
8The pickHEY BROTHER (USA) (Koşmaz)pool 0% · model 9.4% · ARMANDO AGUILAR
2Next bestSEE THROUGH IT (USA) (2)pool 0% · model 0.0% · HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS

HEY BROTHER (USA) (Koşmaz) (8) is the pick: model 9% against a 0% pool share, only 2 runs to go on, edge +9.4 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

SEE THROUGH IT (USA) (2) (2) is the clear second string.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 8HEY BROTHER (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · LIBRADO BAROCIO · draw 8 · pool — · market #1scr#5
  2. 2SEE THROUGH IT (USA) (2)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · GENARO VALLEJO · draw 2 · pool — · market #2+0.0#99
  3. 3HARD TO FIGURE (USA) (4)ARMANDO AYUSO · RONALD W. ELLIS · draw 3 · pool — · market #3+0.0#99
  4. 5SENDIT MO (USA) (3)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 5 · pool — · market #4+0.0#99
  5. 4B GRAYSON (USA) (5)KYLE FREY · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 4 · pool — · market #5+0.0#99
  6. 6IMA TRACK STAR (USA) (1)RICARDO GONZALEZ · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 6 · pool — · market #6+0.0#99
  7. 7SOI NGERN (USA) (6)TYLER BAZE · VAL BRINKERHOFF · draw 7 · pool — · market #7+0.0#99
  8. 1ZOMBO BOMBO (USA) (7)JUSTINE KLAIBER · ANGELA MARIA AQUINO · draw 1 · pool — · market #8+0.0#99

Race 4 · Santa Anita Park · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4GATO VOLADOR (USA)ABEL LEZCANO · EDWIN G. ALVAREZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #1scr#10
  2. 7CHAOTIC NEUTRAL (USA) (3)WELFIN R. ORANTES · MIKE PUYPE · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#99
  3. 10DUKE OF ORLEANS (USA) (7)MANUEL AMERICANO · FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ · draw 10 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 9LOW KEY COOL (USA) (9)JAMIE P. SPENCER · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 6WASTING ACES (USA) (4)ARMANDO AGUILAR · PAUL G. AGUIRRE · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 8ONE LAST STRIKE (USA) (2)RICARDO GONZALEZ · RICHARD BALTAS · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 5DR. FILKINS (USA) (1)ARMANDO AYUSO · SEAN MCCARTHY · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 2BELLO ROSSO (USA) (6)KYLE FREY · BRENDAN W. GALVIN · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 1CHALKY'S GOLD (USA) (5)TYLER BAZE · LEONARD POWELL · draw 1 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 3MORDRED'S REVENGE (USA) (8)EPIFANIO GARCIA · D. WAYNE BAKER · draw 3 · pool — · market #10—#99

Race 5 · Santa Anita Park · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Dirt · Claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 2 of 12 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2DOO WOP DON (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · JEFF MULLINS · draw 2 · pool — · market #1scr#2
  2. 12COME OUT FIGHTING (USA)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · JORGE FARIAS · draw 12 · pool — · market #2scr#10
  3. 1KAHUNA MAGIC (USA) (4)VICTOR ESPINOZA · ANTONIO C. GARCIA · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#99
  4. 9ALPINE THUNDER (USA) (7)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · JOSE HERNANDEZ, JR. · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#99
  5. 5TAPALO (USA) (2)ARMANDO AYUSO · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#99
  6. 7WIZARD OF WESTWOOD (USA) (6)MANUEL AMERICANO · LIBRADO BAROCIO · draw 7 · pool — · market #6—#99
  7. 10DIRTY WORDS (USA) (1)KYLE FREY · RUBY THOMAS · draw 10 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 4MIDNITE MUSKET (USA) (3)EDWIN A. MALDONADO · JORGE PERIBAN · draw 4 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 3CHECK'S ON THE WAY (USA) (5)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · SEAN WILLIAMS · draw 3 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 8JOEY BRACKETS (USA) (9)TYLER BAZE · MONTY R. MEIER · draw 8 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 11YA'LL COME (USA) (10)CRISTOBAL HERRERA · CHARLES S. TREECE · draw 11 · pool — · market #11—#99
  12. 6ARKADELPHIA (USA) (8)ALFREDO BAUTISTA · LUIS MENDEZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #12—#99

Race 6 · Santa Anita Park · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Maiden claiming · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 4 of 10 with US form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1GRAY THUNDER (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#3
  2. 9HENIE IN BLACK (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · BRENDAN W. GALVIN · draw 9 · pool — · market #2—#4
  3. 8WICKED SPUD (USA)DAVID CHARLES LOPEZ · ANTHONY K. SAAVEDRA · draw 8 · pool — · market #3—#6
  4. 3HAMMERBARN (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · RYAN HANSON · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#7
  5. 4DESERT HAWK (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · JOSE HERNANDEZ, JR. · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#8
  6. 7PAPA SANTOS (USA)TYLER BAZE · DANIEL DUNHAM · draw 7 · pool — · market #6—#9
  7. 5MILKEN COOKIES (USA) (3)JAMIE P. SPENCER · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#99
  8. 2SHAPOVAL (USA) (4)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · PETER MILLER · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 6JOE VITTORI (USA) (1)ARMANDO AGUILAR · JOSE R. VALDEZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 10DOING TIME (USA) (2)ABEL LEZCANO · FELIX RONDAN · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#99

Race 7 · Santa Anita Park · 11 runners

Blind
5½f Dirt · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 0 of 11 with US form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little US form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 1FREDDIE BLASSIE (USA)WELFIN R. ORANTES · RYAN HANSON · draw 1 · pool 12% · market #1—#4
  2. 4ONE PUNCH WONDER (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 4 · pool 10% · market #2—#5
  3. 8RYNE SANDBERG (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · STEVEN MIYADI · draw 8 · pool — · market #7scr#6
  4. 11M C DREAMS (USA)ALFREDO L. BAUTISTA · JEFF BONDE · draw 11 · pool 10% · market #3—#7
  5. 2BEAT THE MAN (USA)KYLE FREY · GEORGE PAPAPRODROMOU · draw 2 · pool 6% · market #4—#8
  6. 5TROJANS FOREVER (USA)ARMANDO AYUSO · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 5 · pool 5% · market #5—#9
  7. 7SO CAL NOTTE (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · STEVE R. KNAPP · draw 7 · pool 4% · market #6—#10
  8. 3SWIFT APPEAL (USA) (4)ARMANDO AGUILAR · PETER MILLER · draw 3 · pool — · market #8—#99
  9. 10CALVIN GRAHAM (USA) (2)MANUEL AMERICANO · STEVEN MIYADI · draw 10 · pool — · market #9—#99
  10. 9HIGH HULL GILL (USA) (1)CRISTOBAL HERRERA · EDWIN G. ALVAREZ · draw 9 · pool — · market #10—#99
  11. 6FULLY FAVORABLE (USA) (3)KEVIN E. OROZCO · JAMEY R. THOMAS · draw 6 · pool — · market #11—#99

Race 8 · Santa Anita Park · 11 runners

Thin form
8f Turf · GOLDIKOVA STAKES Açık, fillies & mares /3 · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 11 with US form on file
Mr Pick Day saysOpen race
1The pickMISS NIGHTFALL (GB)pool 17% · model 21.8% · JAMIE P. SPENCER
10Next bestBALTIC FIRE (USA)pool 13% · model 15.2% · KYLE FREY

MISS NIGHTFALL (GB) (1) is the pick: model 22% against a 17% pool share, no US form on file, so the rating leans on the pool, edge +4.9 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

BALTIC FIRE (USA) (10) is the clear second string.

The form file is thin here, so the confidence is marked down.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 1MISS NIGHTFALL (GB)JAMIE P. SPENCER · JONATHAN THOMAS · draw 1 · pool 17% · market #1+4.9#1
  2. 10BALTIC FIRE (USA)KYLE FREY · JEFF MULLINS · draw 10 · pool 13% · market #2+2.3#2
  3. 5BOJACA BLESSING (USA)HECTOR ISAAC BERRIOS · JOSE FRANCISCO D'ANGELO · draw 5 · pool 13% · market #3+0.9#3
  4. 3MAY DAY READY (USA)DRAYDEN VAN DYKE · RICHARD E. MANDELLA · draw 3 · pool 12% · market #4+0.4#4
  5. 7AMBAYA (USA)EMMANUEL ESQUIVEL · JONATHAN THOMAS · draw 7 · pool 9% · market #5+1.7#5
  6. 2AS CATCH CAN (USA)RICARDO GONZALEZ · JONATHAN THOMAS · draw 2 · pool 9% · market #6-0.4#6
  7. 4LITTLE JAMIE (USA)TIAGO JOSUE PEREIRA · SAFFIE A. JOSEPH, JR. · draw 4 · pool 7% · market #7-1.2#7
  8. 6RAW ABILITY (IRE)ABEL LEZCANO · JOHN W. SADLER · draw 6 · pool 6% · market #9-1.5#8
  9. 9MO' EM DOWN (USA)ARMANDO AGUILAR · PETER MILLER · draw 9 · pool 7% · market #8-3.1#9
  10. 11LADY IN PARIS (GB)VICTOR ESPINOZA · PHILIP D'AMATO · draw 11 · pool 5% · market #10-2.6#10
  11. 8PRINCESA MOCHE (PER)ARMANDO AYUSO · DOUG F. O'NEILL · draw 8 · pool 3% · market #11-1.4#11

Below the depth threshold, not ranked: Belmont Park (1.25 runs/horse) · Keeneland (1.19 runs/horse)

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on US racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 7,572 US races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 6,972 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-6.0 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.4 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.73 · antrenor +0.27 · aygir +0.24 · jokey +0.23 · form3 -0.21 · damsire +0.10 · hp +0.05 · adres -0.03 · son_bitis +0.03 · n_gecmis +0.02 · sahip +0.02 · siklet +0.02 · h2h +0.01 · kgs +0.00 · draw +0.00 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have US form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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